NFL Mafia [DP2]

Author: Mharman

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whiteflame
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@MisterChris
I acknowledge this weakness in my hypothesis, and I have before (back in DP1 somewhere).

I think you're mistaking my rationale for being surety. I'm not certain of this at all. It simply seems to be the best point of exploration out of all other options to me.

And my rationalization does not translate to me being unwilling to pursue other leads. I just have not been presented any that compel me to abandon this one.
My issue isn't that you have a hypothesis with problems, it's that you're using that hypothesis to narrow down targets for lynching rather than focusing chiefly on behavioral reads. I understand wanting to whittle down options once you have a few scum reads, but I think there are more than enough behavioral tells in play already to do that. It comes off as a shortcut to avoid focusing on something that doesn't require trying to see into the mod's head. Maybe I'm just seeing more emphasis on this than you meant to impart, but it stood out to me.

I was operating under the assumption that that was a given. My role PM does not specify, but I thought this was how it functioned, because I seem to remember that being how it functioned in the past. 

This is why I stated I was "OK with being confirmed." I'm allowing town to decide, knowing that our one shot for this DP could also be used elsewhere. You're also ignoring the value of having that confirmation. It's not as if confirming me is a "waste of a lynch."
I don't think we should ever assume something is a given, particularly when it can limit our options. It wouldn't be the first time that I've seen a similar role yield a "no lynch" and end the DP. Maybe you honestly didn't know, though it genuinely seems odd to me that you wouldn't ask Mharman before suggesting that it would be OK to do. He just confirmed that it wouldn't end the DP, but it was pertinent information. I would also say that sacrificing the opportunity to lynch is a pretty big cost for semi-confirming your role, though maybe that's just me.

In any case, now we have no reason not to test it. VTL MC.

What? This is basic game design. Any good mafia game designer is going to try to balance roles as much as possible on both sides to ensure fair play. 
We've seen multiple game designs that don't fit the obvious, and I myself have been distracted by the mistaken belief that there must be balanced roles in a game, which has led me to soft town confirm players who ended up being scum. Especially given that Luna had input on this and he tends to throw wrenches into games, I don't think we should function under the assumption that what's basic to most games is the reality here.

There is literally no world in a game (even non-role madness) that employed the joint efforts of Lunatic & Mharman that a 12 player game would have 4-5 vanillas. This is why I requested excess vanillas to claim. Having 3 is already a good amount. If extra vanillas came forward, that would implicate that some of those vanilla claims are scum. We would have a decent springboard to investigate further.

Is this your way of claiming vanilla? I don't see why you are making the assumption town is so weak that basic balancing mechanics aren't needed. 
You clearly distrust That2's role claim, which is fine (though I think it would be rather strange for someone on a scum team to make a claim that stands out that much at the start of the DP without pressure), but I'm functioning based on existing claims and what we know. We have two claimed PRs between you and Earth. We have two known Vanillas. We have one claimed Vanilla and one claimed Hated, which as I already said, is basically Vanilla. If we take all of them at face value, that's effectively 4 Vanillas already. You can say that Luna and Mharman wouldn't create that setup, but we have no reason whatsoever to believe that they'd create any specific setup here.

As for calling for Vanilla claims, I still think it's anti-town for someone who is Vanilla to claim at this point just to dissuade you from your current line of thinking, but that has nothing to do with what my role is and everything to do with my repeated statements that we're actively granting scum a much smaller pool of potential PRs to NK.
SirAnonymous
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The DP goes till Sunday, so I think I'll sign off for tonight and put more thought into the game tomorrow and Saturday. For the moment, I'm too tired to think about it.
Mharman
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Official Vote Count
MisterChris (4/6) - That2, Wylted, SirAnon, Whiteflame
Greyparrot (2/6) - Speedrace, Badger
Wylted (1/6) - Greyparrot
That2 (1/6) - MisterChris

Speedrace
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VTL Chris there's literally no reason not to do this
Speedrace
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@MisterChris
Hammer yourself
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My biggest question here is, why didn't MC immediately claim this, since it immediately town confirms him?
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@Speedrace
you're busted
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Lynch proof would not town confirm him
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@PREZ-HILTON
Are you talking to your scum buddy?
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@Wylted
It wouldn't be 100% confirmation, but it would be pretty close. It's hard to imagine that a game Lunatic worked on would have lynchproof mafia or a Judas after he experienced the fiasco of a game in which I was Judas.*

*Which was a fun game, but hopelessly unbalanced. If I had been lynched in the first DP, mafia would have won instantly.
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@Greyparrot
Are you talking to your scum buddy?
Is this a yes or no question?
Danielle
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@MisterChris
There is literally no world in a game (even non-role madness) that employed the joint efforts of Lunatic & Mharman that a 12 player game would have 4-5 vanillas. This is why I requested excess vanillas to claim. Having 3 is already a good amount. If extra vanillas came forward, that would implicate that some of those vanilla claims are scum. We would have a decent springboard to investigate further.
I could see a world with 4 or 5 vanillas depending on what the other roles are. Having all the vanillas claim right away of course narrows down the role players for scum.

I don't like to overanalyze balance but I'ma do it a little bit. I believe you're lynchproof cuz there would be no reason for you to lie. The mods obviously expected us to test your role claim, so my guess is they assumed we would mislynch GP and you were there to kinda  balance that out, or you are lynchproof scum and meant to teach town a lesson that role confirmation does not = affiliation proof. I could definitely see TUF doing that (not sure about mharman) and possibly only having 2 scum in the game to balance that power dynamic  

It's a little hard for me to see both you and Earth as town. The justification for you being lynchproof (overcoming severe player injuries) could fit with doctor as well, so it's interesting that the Buffalo Bills = doctor because of their recent work with a hospital.  And it's weird that Earth disappeared. He, SirAnon and Wylted aren't contributing much all of a sudden. 

If you're town and your role prevents us from mislynching a townie, and there's a town doctor that potentially saves someone at night, that could make it harder for mafia to pick people off. Coupled with something else I'll point out later I just feel like the game would be balanced against scum if you're both town. 
Danielle
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I'm obviously gonna vtl MisterChris to test his theory (no reason not to) but just wanted to post a little more first for funsies in case anyone had any other thoughts. Plus I still want Earth to answer my questions. 

Note I'm going away for the weekend and wouldn't be able to post much unless my wife sleeps in and I have time in the morning or something via iPad (which I hate using for this site). Monday morning I'll be able to resume posting as normal. 
Mharman
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Official Vote Count
MisterChris (5/6) - That2, Wylted, SirAnon, Whiteflame, Speedrace
Greyparrot (1/6) - Badger
Wylted (1/6) - Greyparrot
That2 (1/6) - MisterChris

Speedrace
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@Danielle
I'm obviously gonna vtl MisterChris to test his theory (no reason not to) but just wanted to post a little more first for funsies in case anyone had any other thoughts. Plus I still want Earth to answer my questions. 
It doesn't end the DP
Danielle
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Yeah I just didn't see a need to vote right then but VTL MisterChris.  I just noticed SirAnon's post saying he doesn't think Luna/mharman would make an unlynchable scum player based on previous fiascos, so that again got  me thinking about Earth's doc claim. I guess it's not OP if there's a Strongman like he says.  That actually makes more sense balance wise. 

If MisterChris doesn't die what are next steps? Lynch Greyparrot, lynch someone else, vote NL or pressure for another claim? It's boring me to be the only one to move the game along today so I'll probs just wait to see what everyone says and check the thread once more later before I leave for the evening.  Wylted, SirAnon and that2user should post more. 
Mharman
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Official Vote Count
MisterChris (6/6) - That2, Wylted, SirAnon, Whiteflame, Speedrace, Danielle
Greyparrot (1/6) - Badger
Wylted (1/6) - Greyparrot
That2 (1/6) - MisterChris


That2User
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Lynchproof confirmed, DP2 isn't ended 
whiteflame
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Based on the vote count, he clearly wasn't lynched by having 6 votes. That being said, I don't think we should end the test here. He could be Loved, which we could test with one more vote on him. At base, I think we should test that before we start peeling off.
Speedrace
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@whiteflame
Based on the vote count, he clearly wasn't lynched by having 6 votes. That being said, I don't think we should end the test here. He could be Loved, which we could test with one more vote on him. At base, I think we should test that before we start peeling off.
Actually that's a good point
Speedrace
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@Danielle
If MisterChris doesn't die what are next steps? Lynch Greyparrot, lynch someone else, vote NL or pressure for another claim? It's boring me to be the only one to move the game along today so I'll probs just wait to see what everyone says and check the thread once more later before I leave for the evening.  Wylted, SirAnon and that2user should post more. 
I see no reason not to continue with a GP lynch, nothing has changed besides the fact that we've basically town-confirmed one player (I know some people think it's "not town-confirming him" but I really can't see this going any other way with the exception of if he ends up being loved scum, which we will soon discover if so)
Earth
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@whiteflame
I gotchu.

VTL Mister
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@Earth
I gotchu.

VTL Mister
Thanks, now we just wait for mod confirmation.

In the meantime, you've been pinged a few times to answer some questions and accusations, particularly from Danielle. Mind getting to those?
Earth
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@Danielle
You initially noted that you would not be much of a help in this game because you didn't follow the NFL (post #25 on DP1). Then in post #368 last day phase you said "The theme is definitely something to do with losses and Falcons are hated for blowing a massive lead in Superbowl LI." I don't think the Falcons are really hated for losing the Superbowl but anyways 

#1 why did you presume last DP that the theme "definitely" has something to do with wins and losses if that has nothing to do with your role justification? 

#2 Can you explain why you're unwilling to lynch Greyparrot knowing there won't be "substantial evidence" against him this day phase? 

I guess I'm just an idiot and assumed that Falcons are hated for losing badly and that all the characters I knew at that point never won a SB. My PM doesn't really have anything that hints at the theme, unless its fan base based.

The reason I don't want to lynch GP is because he's playing according to his town meta from what I remember. I haven't been convinced by the reasons to lynch him, and rather go after someone else.
Mharman
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Official Vote Count
MisterChris (7/6) - That2, Wylted, SirAnon, Whiteflame, Speedrace, Danielle, Earth
Greyparrot (1/6) - Badger
Wylted (1/6) - Greyparrot
That2 (1/6) - MisterChris

Speedrace
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@Earth
The reason I don't want to lynch GP is because he's playing according to his town meta from what I remember. I haven't been convinced by the reasons to lynch him, and rather go after someone else.
Who would you rather go after then
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VTL GP
PREZ-HILTON
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@Speedrace
What is this shit. I mean I understand GP as a last resort but he should not be the first option. 
whiteflame
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Alright, I consider that sufficient. MC is either lynchproof or he has some rare role that allows him to be effectively lynchproof unless certain conditions are met, like the Gallis (which we can test just by keeping a single vote on him when we reach a majority for the lynch). Given that that's pretty unlikely anyway, I'm going to function with this claim as proven and unvote

This also forces me to reevaluate my reads, which will take some time. Much as it doesn't absolutely town-confirm MC and I still think he's a little off behaviorally, a lynchproof scum seems like bastard modding. I suppose it's possible that he's a 1X lynchproof scum that was meant to throw us off, but we can test that in the next DP by doing this again, so I'm going to set that aside. I'm also going to set aside the possibility that he's some kind of third party for now and focus on reconsidering my reads, though I'd still say that GP is the best lynch at the moment.

One thing I'll note: Wylted said that his role balances GP's Hated. If this is a game where the roles have been balanced as MC suggested, then either we're missing a role that balances Wylted/MC's roles, or there are enough Vanillas/Vanilla-likes that the balance skews towards positive PRs among the remainder of players. Just something to keep in mind.
PREZ-HILTON
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Danielle mentions in post 193

It seems most people that have posted agree there's probs 2-3 scum among whiteflame, SirAnon, Speedrace and MisterChris. 
Everybody should put their vote on somebody from this list so we can start coalescing around an agreeable lynch. Last resort we can switch to GP, but we should try this now

uNVOTE VTL WHITEFLAME