NFL Mafia [DP2]

I'm pretty sure I unvoted.

I'll make some posts here soon, not likely to be on for long tonight though. 

Well, first of all because it gave mafia extra, premature information (I would instantly be a prime NK target and would be unable to help scumhunt), and my claim wasn't really needed at the time like it is now.

Second, like I was telling WF, I was operating under the assumption my lynch would end the DP. That's a mistake on my part, admittedly. But under that assumption I wouldn't really be confirmed if town had lynched me, as I could have also been someone with a vest type role. 

Had I known that testing me wouldn't end the DP, i might have claimed immediately. 

Now that I'm confirmed, I'd think that town would drop the GP lynch. it's a really dumb idea. 

I'm willing to pursue SirAnon. WF is unlikely to be scum in my view.

We should kill speed.

why?

he is anti-town

I could see him as scum but it's less likely than SirAnon. Speed was on Barney last DP to the end. A move that doesn't really make sense as a scum player. Perhaps he did that out of inactivity or for a WIFOM opportunity, but it reduces the chance he's scum imo. 

Why? WF has done nothing to indicate being scum

What's your read on siranon?

I’ll take a look at it.

^^^

Yeah you did my b

Vote count has been corrected.

I'm okay with a NL, 0 chance of a mislynch 

I'm not exactly excited by a no lynch, especially given that I feel that the lynch on GP is justified, but if we cannot rally behind a lynch on GP, then I'd currently prefer a no lynch to a random lynch (my misgivings about Earth aside, I don't think we have reason enough to lynch him given his claim). 

That being said, I do think we can start to puzzle some of this out, and the more I've thought about it, the less I'm liking GP's justification. He responded to my request to get this information with "Who likes the Falcons?" and then claimed he was just fishing for scum. He then said that they're "hated for choking in critical games." Setting aside the fact that they're hardly alone in that regard, the only specific justification I've heard for that is focused on a single Super Bowl, which came from Earth. I might feel that GP's justification makes more sense if that came from him, given that Oro's role included a references specific games ("the Bill O’Brien disaster" references an 0-4 streak at the start of the 2020 season), but it didn't. I'm seeing a much more specific basis for having both the Bears and Texans listed as Vanilla than GP provided for justifying the Falcons as Hated. Pie's may not reference a specific player or coach, but it provides details about the team and its performance that are unique to it and that line it up pretty well with Vanilla. My own justification references a specific player and relates it to the team's performance. The fact that GP seems to have left out any and all specifics from his justification doesn't sit well with me.

GP still looks like clear pick to me. I don't have enough reason to suspect anyone new from my list of townreads yet, but I think there's valid reason to sus GP over his claim at this point, and the balancing issue just isn't enough reason for me to dismiss his strange behavior and the oddities of his claim. Don't know why WyIted keeps treating GP as the choice of last resort, and at the moment, I don't have good enough reason to sus either SirAnon or Speedrace enough to VTL either of them. So my vote will stay on him for now unless I'm given good reason to prefer someone else or a no lynch.

Scum team is clearly wylted and speedrace.

VTNL (1/6) - That2

First of all, I apologize for my inactivity. As I mentioned yesterday, I had an unplanned schedule complication. I will be more active over the weekend.

I think that I need to claim. I've been going back and forth with this for the last 24 hours, and the only conclusion I've reached is that if I choose to claim, that will be the wrong decision, and if I choose not to, that will also be the wrong decision. But while claiming now definitely has its downsides, I think claiming later would be even worse.

I am the babysitter. If scum NKs the person I babysit, they will survive. However, if I am NKed, both me and the person I babysit will die.

I am claiming because my role is a potential counterclaim to Earth's role. As such, were I to claim it in a later DP, people would naturally believe Earth and lynch me, potentially costing town the game. However, I say potential counterclaim because I am not quite sure that it is a counterclaim. I will go through both sides here, because I'm really not sure.

In favor of counterclaim:

Obviously, both Earth and I are claiming protective roles. Worse, I confirmed with Mharman that if a doctor and a babysitter guarded each other, neither could be NKed. I will ask him again publicly for transparency's sake. Thus, the existence of both roles as town is potentially game-breaking - but not quite. My role has a limitation on how I can use it, which I will not reveal because that would help mafia much more than town. Thus, Earth and I would not be able to indefinitely protect each other. However, it would be possible at least some of the time. So while it isn't quite game-breaking, it's close.

Furthermore, Mharman mentioned that some mafia fake claims are better than others. If Earth is mafia, doctor is almost certainly a provided fake claim, since no mafia in their right mind would fake claim doctor. However, because it is a near counterclaim to my role, it is not as good as some other possible fake claims.

Against a counterclaim: As I stated earlier, our roles, if both exist as town roles, don't quite break the game. Furthermore, mine has the potential to kill two townies for the price of one. Thus, his role might counterbalance mine, although Chris's role might also serve as a counterbalance.

Furthermore, when Pie asked Mharman whether he had given mafia fake role claims or fake character claims, Mharman said he gave them character claims. I asked Mharman if that implied that mafia had no fake role claims, and he, for good reason, refused to answer. However, one could interpret Mharman's statement as implying that mafia only has fake character claims. If this is the case, then no mafioso in their right mind would fake claim doctor.

Overall, I don't know what to think. I've been going back and forth for 24 hours and finally decided that it was better to claim and let town know about this. If you choose to criticize my decision... you're probably right. I've resigned myself to the fact that whichever decision I reached would be the wrong one.

As for whether I am risking being NKed by claiming a power role, I don't really care that much. Because my role has the potential to kill two townies, I'm not using it, so I'm not too different from a vanilla.

Hypothetically, if a babysitter and a doctor were to guard each other, could either of them be NKed?

Ha, it suddenly occurred to me that I didn't even consider whether or not I should character claim. My role's out, so it doesn't much matter. I will if people want me to.

what happens if you babysit scum and you get nk?

I think I'm going to let the mafia sweat over that one.

ha!

On the other hand, Mharman did say that he would answer hypothetical questions, so I suppose scum could get the answer to that rather easily. So I may as well answer it. Both the scum and I would die in that case. So my role does have some utility as a weak suicide bomber.