Gasp Prices and Inflation

Author: Double_R

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#121
secularmerlin
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@Greyparrot
My advice to everyone is to resist the power of the ultra rich. There are far more of us than of them. They do not work 300 times harder than the average person and their salaries are absurd. For them to seek even more wealth and power than they have is, arguably, monstrous. Our fiat currency is not money and hasn't bee since we stopped using the gold standard (which was also made up). One really nasty solar flare and all electronic money could simply disappear. My advice is not to put too much faith in money. Build up humans. They are the most important resource and so their mistreatment at the hands of the rich is counter productive and harmful to the entire race. The rich are holding us back as a species. 
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#122
Double_R
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@ILikePie5
That’s how supply and demand shocks work, yes. Basic economics.
Supply and demand shocks are temporary. That's why they're called "shocks". Is it your position that gas prices will go back up once the shock wears off?

There is no “specific quantity” people predict oil supply is going to drop by, but people sure as hell know it’s going to drop because it will become far more expensive to drill because of regulation and Biden policies that he promised during his campaign. 
The permits and leases you're talking about will add no value to the market for years. By the time that happens Biden could very well be out of office. If investors are looking that far ahead they're looking at far more than Biden, and what they're seeing is that the entire world is working towards moving on from oil.

This is far bigger than Biden, which is my point. You guys love to take small pieces of the equation and act like it's all about one man so you can pretend 100% of your anger towards the cause of 10% of the problem is justified.

#123
secularmerlin
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@ILikePie5
Believe it or not, oil doesn’t grow on trees. It takes months if not years to get a permit, make the rig, drill, transport, refine. It’s supposed to run on futures.
This is all besides the point. 9000 permits is not inconsiderable (arguably it is far to much considering that fossil fuels are destroying the planet's ability to sustain humans.
And death is the feature of socialism
Firstly when you suggest that it is either socialism or capitalism you are not just suggesting a false dichotomy you are suggesting a dichotomy where none exists. Socialism does not preclude capitalism. The forty hour work week, weekends off, social security,  Medicare and Medicaid, paid sick leave and maternity leave. These are all SOCIAL programs. 

Secondly death is a feature of life and no one gets out alive. That doesn't mean we shouldn't care for each other in solidarity.

I cannot be sure without further discussion but I think you may be thinking of totalitarian regimes that call themselves socialist despite not actually operating according to socialist ideals. There have been many throughout history. 

Totalitarianism actually has much more in common with capitalism. They both seek the same end goal of concentrating the wealth and power into as few hands as possible. 

I am not arguing to dismantle all capitalism only that we consider the importance of wealth secondary to the importance  of human wellbeing. 
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#124
Double_R
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@thett3
The obfuscation to avoid blaming Biden for anything really is amazing. The same thing happened several months ago in a thread about the ongoing border crisis. The quarter million a month illegals pouring in can’t have anything to do with Biden de facto legalizing it by simply releasing them en masse and flying them to their place of choice in the country…no siree
If you started a thread on gas prices saying that Biden's policies have made things worse, I highly doubt you would find a bunch of lefties jumping into the thread to talk about January 6th.

The problem is not that lefties cant admit that Biden has done anything wrong, it's that we're responding to the blatant disingenuousness and partisan hackery where Biden is fully responsible for all our gas troubles and this is why we need to ignore the fact that the GOP is literally trying to end democracy.
#125
Greyparrot
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@Double_R
the GOP is literally trying to end democracy.
Maduro said the exact same thing about Venezuelan Democracy while his country burned to the ground. I don't buy it.

Threats to Democrats are never threats to Democracy if the majority of the people hate Democrats, which is the case right now.
#126
thett3
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@Double_R
Real leaders are men of action, so let me turn the question around on you. Even if it were true that nothing he has done has made things worse (which isn’t true, see: massive Covid stimulus that overheated the economy,  outright hostility to the oil and gas industry, actions such as canceling drilling leases and pipelines etc)….sitting around doing nothing isn’t acceptable either. What concrete actions has he taken to lower inflation/gas prices? 
#127
Greyparrot
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@thett3
What concrete actions has he taken to lower inflation/gas prices? 
He is releasing oil from strategic reserves, further proving Biden doesn't understand the Oil Market runs on future supplies, not present supplies. He fucked the oil economy in 2020, not 2022.

The only thing Biden can do right now to prop up oil futures is to promise substantial subsidies/tax breaks/investment guarantees for new oil drilling. That's not going to happen for obvious reasons.
#128
Greyparrot
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@coal
You mean oil investors don't want to rack up another $320+B in losses over 15 years so consumers in America can get a discount on gasoline? Wow! I mean here government wants to destroy their businesses within 10-30 years, they have massive losses from over a decade of investing to grow the US energy industry and now these selfish people actually want to get some of their money back! I mean what kind of country is this! People need to wise up. If it had not been for the second dip in the great recession from Q3/08-Q1/09 we would have had triple digit oil prices from 2008-2014, as is we had them from 2011 thru 2014.

The only reason they came down was because US shale producers were funding a massive expansion of US shale at 1m bpd a year production increases while losing massive amounts of money. Indeed, if you were to sum up all of the loses, producers haven't even made a net profit off of US shale after nearly 20 years of investments. Oil prices only went down because of an OPEC price war that resulted in OPEC+ and of course the Covid induced lockdown recession . Those two anomalies likely won't repeat which means $100+ forever is a much higher likelihood than anything else. Especially if we can't stop the present day anti-fossil fuel lobby and overt actions by governments. Biden doesn't have to continue down this path. He wants to.
#129
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@ILikePie5
Biden says the Economy is doing great. This is the kind of false hope the country needs right now.
#130
thett3
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@Greyparrot
He is releasing oil from strategic reserves, further proving Biden doesn't understand the Oil Market runs on future supplies, not present supplies. He fucked the oil economy in 2020, not 2022.
That’s also supposed to be stockpiled for a national emergency. Knowing Biden’s luck he’s gonna finish draining it and then immediately some crisis will occur that shuts down multiple refineries at once lol 
#131
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That’s also supposed to be stockpiled for a national emergency. 
Biden's election was a national emergency lol.
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#132
Double_R
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@thett3
What concrete actions has he taken to lower inflation/gas prices? 
Releasing from the statigic oil reserve, an executive order removing regulations on the same of E15, supported an anti price gauging bill the republicans killed, and is considering a tax holiday.

What's your point?
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#133
Double_R
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@Greyparrot
I don't buy it.
I don't buy that the earth is round.
#134
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@Double_R
 supported an anti price gauging bill the republicans killed,
Lol, price fixing! Go Carter! Too bad some Democrats blocked it or we could have 40 years of Democrats out of power instead of the projected 20.
and is considering a tax holiday.
We could use a holiday from government. Preferably a long term one.


#135
thett3
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@Double_R
Releasing from the statigic oil reserve, an executive order removing regulations on the same of E15, supported an anti price gauging bill the republicans killed, and is considering a tax holiday.
So the first is a gimmick that drains a strategic resource meant for a national emergency such as a military conflict or a natural disaster. I didn’t know what the E15 regulations were until now but it looks like this does make a tiny difference, 10 cents a gallon by the administrations own estimate. An anti “price gouging” bill is horrendous economics for a number of reasons. A gas tax holiday is also a gimmick that would relieve 18 cents a gallon, an unknown portion of which would actually be passed down to the consumer. The common denominator is that none of these actually address the problem they just stick a tiny bandaid on it 

What's your point?
The point is that there is one and only one way out of this, and that’s increasing supply. I understand that doing this takes time but not only is he not taking steps in that direction, there’s a laundry list of actions he’s taken that do the opposite. 
#136
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@Double_R
The only thing Biden can do right now to prop up oil futures is to promise substantial subsidies/permanent  tax breaks/long-term investment guarantees/ and permanent removal of barriers to market entry for new oil drilling; including and not limited to subsidized access to oil pipeline distribution networks and a substantial reduction of permit fees. That's not going to happen for obvious reasons.
#137
cristo71
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@Greyparrot
Lol, price fixing! Go Carter! Too bad some Democrats blocked it or we could have 40 years of Democrats out of power instead of the projected 20.
I don’t think that article says what you imply it does. That publication is decidedly left biased but factually reliable. The article is PRO price fixing, which Carter did not do, and Nixon did. Disclosure: just looked this up— Nixon instituted a 90 day wage/price fix to prevent the notorious “wage/price spiral.” According to your posited article, it was a successful policy which was out of character for a Republican prez.

Instead of a temporary price and wage fix as Nixon had done, Carter reduced federal spending and appointed Volcker as fed chair, who then raised interest rates appreciably. This later did ease inflation, but not before making things worse in the short term and making things ripe for Reagan’s landslide election.

The article is a cautionary tale in favor of keeping Democrats in power.
#138
Greyparrot
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@cristo71
The article is PRO price fixing, which Carter did not do.
Fact checked false:

That publication is decidedly left biased but factually reliable
I love those sources because it's more likely to be accepted by the radical left as truth.

Disclosure: just looked this up— Nixon instituted a 90 day wage/price fix to prevent the notorious “wage/price spiral.” 
Most historians know that, and the policy on oil was continued into the Carter era, which compounded the supply and inflationary problems when Carter ALSO imposed wage and price fixing.

The article is a cautionary tale in favor of keeping Democrats in power.
And yet, Biden is objectively repeating most of Carter's mistakes. (he has yet to do price controls though) with the unique detriment of having Powell and Yellen in charge instead of Volker.

#139
cristo71
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@Greyparrot
Fact checked false:
Ok, but you cited an article which claims the opposite:

“Eight years later, Jimmy Carter, promoting himself as a small-government/fiscal conservative, rejected the Nixon precedent. One of his first acts as president was to turn down the Democratic Congress’s offer to authorize standby wage and price controls—a move that Stuart Eizenstat, his chief domestic policy adviser, later admitted was his biggest mistake.”

Point being, you cite an article which, factually correct or not, doesn’t support your point, and I merely felt the need to point that out…

#140
Greyparrot
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@cristo71
My main point was that even radical leftists know Biden is going down a similar path as Carter, I don't really care what twisted logic they took to get to that conclusion.
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#141
Double_R
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@thett3
The point is that there is one and only one way out of this, and that’s increasing supply. I understand that doing this takes time but not only is he not taking steps in that direction, there’s a laundry list of actions he’s taken that do the opposite. 
I'm not disagreeing with you. As you've acknowledged, it takes time so any immediate impact we would see from any actions he could take would be minimal at best. So what's the point here? I'm just arguing that the obsession with Biden's terrible handling of gas prices is overblown and a disingenuous distraction from what were talking about when it comes to what the republicans are doing.

Gas prices are a political football. If Trump had actually won they would still be at record highs and democrats would be campaigning against the GOP telling America all about how Trump fucked up the entire world economy. It would be just as much nonsense as this, and yet would have far more credibility since he oversaw the entire collapse.

I just want a genuine conversation.
#142
Greyparrot
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@Double_R
So what's the point here?
The point is we have to ask a genuine question here. How can Democracy force Biden to improve the country?

And if it cannot, what is the realistic value of Democracy to everyday Americans?
#143
ILikePie5
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@Double_R
Supply and demand shocks are temporary. That's why they're called "shocks". Is it your position that gas prices will go back up once the shock wears off?
Yes, they will eventually go down. Probably when we get a Republican in office though cause Democrats are anti-fossil fuels.

The permits and leases you're talking about will add no value to the market for years. By the time that happens Biden could very well be out of office. If investors are looking that far ahead they're looking at far more than Biden, and what they're seeing is that the entire world is working towards moving on from oil.
I’d expect oil companies to know that better than you. And all of this is irrelevant to the fact that oil is subsidized at the moment.

This is far bigger than Biden, which is my point. You guys love to take small pieces of the equation and act like it's all about one man so you can pretend 100% of your anger towards the cause of 10% of the problem is justified.
Well I guess you could say it’s the Biden administration as a whole. You’re acting like Biden has ZERO blame for these high prices, which is either ignorant or stupidity (I think the former).
#144
ILikePie5
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@secularmerlin
This is all besides the point. 9000 permits is not inconsiderable (arguably it is far to much considering that fossil fuels are destroying the planet's ability to sustain humans.
Oh did I forget to mention the new permits? Remember when Joe said he was gonna ban drilling and fracking on federal land? Fossil fuels are literally sustaining human kind right now lol.

Firstly when you suggest that it is either socialism or capitalism you are not just suggesting a false dichotomy you are suggesting a dichotomy where none exists.
Parts of our economy are already socialized. You’re advocating for abandoning capitalism which literally leaves…socialism.

Socialism does not preclude capitalism. The forty hour work week, weekends off, social security,  Medicare and Medicaid, paid sick leave and maternity leave. These are all SOCIAL programs.
You want to get rid of the capitalism and put socialism. 

Secondly death is a feature of life and no one gets out alive. That doesn't mean we shouldn't care for each other in solidarity.
Humans have been tribalistic since their inception. They care about some and they don’t care about others.

I cannot be sure without further discussion but I think you may be thinking of totalitarian regimes that call themselves socialist despite not actually operating according to socialist ideals. There have been many throughout history.
It’s against human nature to operate under full blown socialism principles. 

Totalitarianism actually has much more in common with capitalism. They both seek the same end goal of concentrating the wealth and power into as few hands as possible.
Capitalism allows for social mobility and effective competition which benefits the buyer and seller.

I am not arguing to dismantle all capitalism only that we consider the importance of wealth secondary to the importance  of human wellbeing.
Humans first take care of ourselves and our loved ones. Then those in our in-group. Then those in our out-group. It’s human nature. There are people in this world who will take advantage of you any chance they get without giving anything back.
#145
ILikePie5
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@Greyparrot
and is considering a tax holiday.
Which would increase inflation even more lol.

#FiscalPolicy
#146
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@ILikePie5
Lol, Democrats can't help but mess this all up.
#147
secularmerlin
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@ILikePie5
Fossil fuels are literally sustaining human kind right now lol.
This more or less sums up the real problem. The problem that is more basic than the price of fossil fuels. The problem we really need to solve.
#148
ILikePie5
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@secularmerlin
This more or less sums up the real problem. The problem that is more basic than the price of fossil fuels. The problem we really need to solve.
The problem we have spent millions of dollars in R&D to develop a cost-effective way to transition from fossil fuels. I think those efforts will succeed soon.

Right now Dems sound like Thomas Malthus saying we’re all gonna die
#149
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@ILikePie5
Right now Dems sound like Thomas Malthus saying we’re all gonna die.
There's no reason why Americans have to suffer while Russians can buy 3 dollar gas.

If we were an oil exporter we could also have 3 dollar gas right now today.
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#150
Double_R
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@ILikePie5
You’re acting like Biden has ZERO blame for these high prices, which is either ignorant or stupidity (I think the former).
I'm not, I've actually said he had some blame, not that I would expect you to pay attention to the context of this thread.

But fine, I'm acting like Biden has ZERO blame and you're acting like he has 100% blame. How do we resolve this?