2024 Predictions

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#1
thett3
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What are your early predictions for the American elections in 2024? 

Unfortunately as of right now I predict Donald Trump will win the republican nomination and he will lose by a much bigger margin than he did in 2020. The Republicans will probably retake the senate anyway because the map is just so good for them but they’ll likely leave several seats on the table as usual. Hope I’m wrong but that’s the vibe I’m getting. What about all of you? 
#2
Best.Korea
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My predictions are that Biden will win and remain president.

Biden has his way with words, and he manipulates debates easily.

I assume he will claim how Trump will go easy on Russia, how Trump has no plan for war in Ukraine... and so on.

I want for Trump to win. But I am not sure if its possible. 
#3
ILikePie5
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If it is Trump vs Biden, Trump wins.

Everyone is tired of the inflation. Biden was shown to be a massive hypocrite in front of the American people with his document scandal. The economy will likely be bad by the time 2024 comes around. Donald Trump has the perfect messaging to Americans considering his economic success prior to COVID. The border situation will be solved. 

Don’t look now, but Trump has better approval ratings than Joe Biden according to Harris and YouGov (though I expect Biden’s to drop as the document scandal deepens).

GOP retakes Senate and wins the House even if Trump loses just because Trump brings out voters who would not otherwise vote (it’s the reason the GOP picked up seats in 2020 in the House).

Senate flips will be WV definitely bringing it to 50/50 and then next best odds are OH followed by MT.
#4
RationalMadman
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Biden 'suddenly' develops signs of dementia towards the end and is replaced by Harris.

Harris vs some clean-cut Republican a bit like Mitt Romney sort of character that doesn't push the boat.

Idk how to predict who wins or by how large a margin. I do not think it will be a landslide in either direction.
#5
ILikePie5
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Senate Predictions:

AZ: Kyrsten Sinema (I) vs Ruben Gallego (D) vs Blake Masters (R) —> GOP Pickup

CA: Adam Schiff (D) vs Katie Porter (D) —> Dem Hold

CT: Chris Murphy (D) vs Themis Klarides (R) —> Dem Hold

DE: Tom Carper (D) vs Rob Arlett (R) —> Dem Hold

FL: Rick Scott (R) vs Stephanie Murphy (D) —> GOP Hold

HI: Mazie Hirono (D) vs Bob McDermott (R) —> Dem Hold

IN: Jim Banks (R) vs Joe Donnelly (D) —> GOP Hold

ME: Angus King (I) vs Paul LePage (R) —> Independent/Dem Hold

MD: Ben Cardin (D) Robin Ficker (R) —> Dem Hold

MA: Elizabeth Warren (D) vs Geoff Diehl (R) —> Dem Hold

MI: Elissa Slotkin (D) vs Perry Johnson (R) —> Dem Hold

MN: Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Jason Lewis (R) —> Dem Hold

MS: Roger Wicker (R) vs Ty Pickens (D) —> GOP Hold

MO: Josh Hawley (R) vs Lucas Kunce (D) —> GOP Hold

MT: Jon Tester (D) vs Matt Rosendale (R) —> GOP Pickup

NE: Deb Fischer (R) vs Alisha Shelton (D) —> GOP Hold

NE Special: Pete Ricketts (R) vs Preston Love Jr. (D)
—> GOP Hold

NV : Jacky Rosen (D) vs Sam Brown (R) —> GOP Pickup

NJ: Bob Menendez (D) vs Hirsh Singh (R) —> Dem Hold

NM: Martin Heinrich (D) vs Mark Ronchetti (R) —> Dem Hold

NY: Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D) vs Chele Farley (R)
—> Dem Hold

ND: Kevin Cramer (R) vs Kristin Hedger (D) —> GOP Hold

OH: Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jim Jordan (R) —> GOP Pickup

PA: Bob Casey Jr. (D) vs David McCormick (R) —> Dem Hold

RI: Sheldon Whitehouse (D) vs Allan Fung (R) —> Dem Hold

TN: Marsha Blackburn (R) vs Jason Martin (D) —> GOP Hold

TX: Ted Cruz (R) vs Beto O’Rourke (D) —> GOP Hold

UT: Sean Reyes (R) vs Ben McAdams (D) —> GOP Hold

VT: Bernie Sanders (I) vs Christina Nolan (R) —> Independent/Dem Hold

VA: Tim Kaine (D) vs Hung Cao (R) —> Dem Hold

WA: Maria Cantwell (D) vs Tiffany Smiley (R) —> Dem Hold

WV: Joe Manchin (D) vs Jim Justice (R) —> GOP Pickup

WI: Tammy Baldwin (D) vs Mike Gallagher (R) —> Dem Hold

WY: John Barrasso (R) vs Liz Cheney (I) —> GOP Hold




54-46 GOP is the initial prediction 














#6
Double_R
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@thett3
Unfortunately as of right now I predict Donald Trump will win the republican nomination
Emphatically disagree. People are tired of Trump. He has nothing new to offer, all he cares about is airing his personal grievances, he goes after his own base for not being sufficiently loyal to him, and he has shown himself to be a proven loser who will take the rest of the party down with him.

He might still be leading in the polls, but his support has been on a steady incline and I think will come more into focus as we get closer to 2024 and people really start weighing their options.

I would bet right now on Ron Desantis being the nominee, but I don’t have a great deal of confidence in that. The guy is not charismatic at all and we all know that is a must have to get through the primaries. He’s also an extremist and there seems to be a push for more normal candidates, especially after 2022.

My next bet would be Nikki Hailey. As a leftist, that’s who I would probably least want to go up against. She’s likable, doesn’t come off as crazy, and being a woman also helps considering that’s a strong group for the democrats.
#7
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@ILikePie5
Biden was shown to be a massive hypocrite in front of the American people with his document scandal. 
Only MAGA world cares about this.

If Trump is the nominee, pushing the documents scandal would be a gift to the democrats because all that will do is put the focus back on Trump being that he did the exact same thing except with far more documents plus lying to the FBI.
#8
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@Double_R
Only MAGA world cares about this.

If Trump is the nominee, pushing the documents scandal would be a gift to the democrats because all that will do is put the focus back on Trump being that he did the exact same thing except with far more documents plus lying to the FBI.
With the media puppets sure. But Trump has defied those odds in 2016 and came close in 2020 (COVID saved Democrats).

You forget that there’s people out there that will only come out to vote for Donald Trump. There’s actually been a sort of political realignment in those terms.

As for my predictions, I’m least confident in AZ Senate. At face value, it seems that Democrats would be harmed because they need moderate Republicans (who will likely vote Sinema). It’s simply a numbers game. I’m interested to hear your thoughts
#9
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@ILikePie5
You forget that there’s people out there that will only come out to vote for Donald Trump. There’s actually been a sort of political realignment in those terms.
I hope you’re right about that, because it assures a democrat wins in 2024. Trump will lose in a general, the rest of the country is turned off by him. And any other republican will need those voters to win.

As for my predictions, I’m least confident in AZ Senate. At face value, it seems that Democrats would be harmed because they need moderate Republicans (who will likely vote Sinema). It’s simply a numbers game. I’m interested to hear your thoughts
AZ will be very tough for democrats, but this latest stunt by Sinema I think will save herself politically. Right wingers cannot credibly paint her as an evil liberal coming for your guns and child’s genitals, and the democrats may not like her but will have realize that they need the seat and any other democrat will have a very tough uphill battle.
#10
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@Double_R
I hope you’re right about that, because it assures a democrat wins in 2024. Trump will lose in a general, the rest of the country is turned off by him. And any other republican will need those voters to win.
I agree that a Generic Republican loses. Ron DeSantis has the best chance not because of the Rust Belt but places like NV, NH, and maybe even VA. Ron definitely loses MI and PA. He may come close in WI but likely fails. Trump still has a chance in the Rust Belt 

AZ will be very tough for democrats, but this latest stunt by Sinema I think will save herself politically. Right wingers cannot credibly paint her as an evil liberal coming for your guns and child’s genitals, and the democrats may not like her but will have realize that they need the seat and any other democrat will have a very tough uphill battle.
I agree with this. Ruben Gallego is going to announce Monday and he is a credible Democrat. It’s going to be tough for Sinema especially without Democratic funding and voter data. I think she comes in 3rd. It’s first show I’m curious about. On paper it seems like a GOP flip because Democratic vote will split 3-1 between Gallego and Sinema. GOP vote I’d suspect splits 4-1 for R nominee and Sinema
#11
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I hope the Republican's nominate George Santos for President in 2024.
#12
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@Best.Korea
ROFL

Biden is nearer to the other side than this side. :)
#13
YouFound_Lxam
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@ILikePie5
If it is Trump vs Biden, Trump wins
Not so sure of that. I think Ron Desantis is going to win if he runs. 

I know I would vote for him. 




#14
SirAnonymous
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My guess is that the Republican nomination is a rerun of 2016. The main event will be Trump vs. DeSantis, but there will be a bunch of (delusional, egotistical, narcissistic, self-above-both-party-and-country) other candidates who will split the not-Trump vote, allowing Trump to be nominated with a plurality of the votes. The Democrats will likely re-nominate Biden (maybe Harris or Newsome). Instead of focusing on an actual message, Trump will spend his entire campaign relitigating 2020, failing to take advantage of Biden's weaknesses and amplifying his own. Despite being deeply unpopular, Biden will still be less hated than Trump and will bury him in a landslide. When the dust settles, we'll be pretty much right where we are now, except that we'll hate each other even more.

Am I optimistic, or what?
#15
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@RationalMadman
Harris vs some clean-cut Republican a bit like Mitt Romney sort of character that doesn't push the boat.
Unless you consider DeSantis clean-cut, I doubt there's much chance of that.
#16
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I am curious about one thing, though. Last congressional term we had Madison Cawthorn attempt to get involved in as many scandals as possible in only two years. This term we have have George Santos attempting to tell as many lies as possible in two years. What will the next Congressional speedrunner go for?
#17
IwantRooseveltagain
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@ILikePie5
Donald Trump has the perfect messaging to Americans considering his economic success prior to COVID. The border situation will be solved. 
Did Trump ever have a balanced budget or a year with strong GDP growth? Didn’t he have to send welfare payments to farmers because of his trade war?

#18
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@ILikePie5
I will have to agree with DoubleR on this one.

Predicit.com shows flagging support for the Orangeone. 

But feel free to place a longshot bet!
#19
MeowRanger
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I don't know much about US political circumstances but still I think Trump is going to win cuz I just think that Biden a guy who manipulates people easily. He always keeps fake people with him to give 'fake' reactions on his speech.
#20
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UUG1xftF58 I was talking about this speech.
#21
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@ILikePie5
You forget that there’s people out there that will only come out to vote for Donald Trump. There’s actually been a sort of political realignment in those terms.   
Sure, he makes the white suprmacists come out to vote for him, but he makes just as many Republican's stay home, and he makes Democrats and Independents come out in droves to vote for anybody else.

Face it, your loser Trump movement is over, by 2024 nobody will be voting for Trump, and by 2025 nobody will even admit they voted for him in 2016.  

If Biden dies this year, he'd probably still beat Trump in 2024, Trump would lose if he ran unopposed. 

He should stick to baseball cards.


#22
ILikePie5
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@Sidewalker
Lol that’s what they said in 2016.

I don’t think you realize that these people were once part of the Democratic base
#23
Sidewalker
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@ILikePie5
I don’t think you realize that these people were once part of the Democratic base
I don't think you realize how many Democrats were Republicans when Trump came along.
#24
ILikePie5
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@Sidewalker
I don't think you realize how many Democrats were Republicans when Trump came along.
I know. Maybe you should read what I wrote to Double_R

112 days later

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#25
thett3
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My prediction about Trump being the nominee again seems more likely than ever although he’s surprisingly competitive in the polls with Biden for the general election. It’s hard to see him winning again but it’s beginning to look like he has a punchers chance…again 

Has anything happened to change any of your predictions?
#26
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@thett3
I don't think DeSantis is going to be able to beat him sadly.
Topic's author
#27
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@Greyparrot
Desantis is making a huge mistake by waiting so long to declare. Meanwhile Trump has been busy consolidating his position as the de facto nominee. It’s not over but it looks a lot worse for desantis than it did over the winter