Pascal's Wager - Is fun worth the risk?

Author: Best.Korea

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If atheism is right, both Christians and atheists end the same.

If Christianity is right, then most of the atheists go to hell to burn.

Pascal's wager is a probability based argument that says that we should believe in God to increase our chances of happy afterlife.

Now, no matter how many other options are there besides atheism and Christianity, it still logically follows that being a Christian increases your chances of happy afterlife more than being an atheist does.

There are basically these relevant options:

1) There is no God - Christians and atheists end up same

2) There is God who punishes Christians and rewards atheists - Atheists end up better than Christians

3) There is God who punishes atheists and rewards Christians - Christians end up better than atheists

The option 2) is the only argument against Pascal's wager.

If option 2) is proven less likely than option 3), then it logically follows that Christians are more likely to have a happy afterlife.

But how likely is the option 2)?

Is option 2) more likely than option 3) or equally likely as option 3)?

I would say not even close. First, if there was a God who rewarded atheists and punished Christians, such God would have to be immoral since most of Christians have similar or better morality than what atheists have. Therefore, the only way to argue against Pascal's Wager is to assume that immoral God is just as likely as moral God, and to assume that such immoral God for some reason prefers atheists over Christians. Such God would also need to be unreasonable God, since its unreasonable to prefer atheists when there was no proof or even a hint given during our lifetime that atheism is the correct path.

Second, the greatest religions on Earth are against atheism. So the God who prefers atheists for some reason created religions that are implying how atheism is wrong. These religions are all built on morality. Therefore, God who prefers atheists would punish those who follow morality.

So any God who prefers atheism would have to be immoral and unreasonable.

So, if we know that there are only 3 options for afterlife:

1) Atheists and Christians ending up same

2) Atheists ending up better than Christians

3) Christians ending up better than atheists

Option 1 is neutral, therefore it doesnt affect happy afterlife.

Option 3) is more likely than option 2), since moral and reasonable God is more likely than immoral and unreasonable God who prefers atheism.

Therefore, we can say that Christians are more likely to have better afterlife than atheists are. Atheism just doesnt seem worth the risk.

Now, I am not one of those Christians who believe that all atheists go to hell. In fact, God rewards according to good actions that a person does. We cannot say that all good actions of atheists will be negated due to atheism.

However, if a person is an atheist, it does increase his chances of being immoral. For example, most of the atheists are in favor of abortions, in favor of LGBT.

So it basically comes down to morality of a person.

Is fun worth the risk?

Its not even worth the risk in this life. Plenty of sexual partners make people depressed and suicidal. Alcohol, drugs, speeding... any sin really makes life worse.
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  1. Pretending to believe in God, in order to end up in heaven, is transparent deception to God, worse or equal than being an honest atheist.
  2. Believing in God primarily in order to end up in heaven and avoid Hell is entirely selfish, deteriorating the benevolence or selflessness of all good acts you do.
  3. All possible creator variants other than Christian (or is it Jewish) God, make Pascal's wager start to backfire hard as they'd be inclined to punish ypu for believing in the fake/wrong god.
  4. If God is such a deceptive trickster that he never once probes himself and lets you tely on tbe same level of deluded hope as a schizophrenic has with their dekusions or hallucinations, is this the kind of God you trust would be true to the Bible and put you in heaven? anyway?

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@Best.Korea
Wouldn't your all powerful god see through the fraud?
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Fortunately, RationalMadman and Stephen, the Creators of this Simulation have you going to the next level due to your intelligence.

Best.Korea, you are The Weakest Link, Goodbye!
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@RationalMadman
Pretending to believe in God, in order to end up in heaven, is transparent deception to God, worse or equal than being an honest atheist.
Eh, questionable.


Believing in God primarily in order to end up in heaven and avoid Hell is entirely selfish, deteriorating the benevolence or selflessness of all good acts you do.
Good acts done for selfish reasons are included in good acts. God who rewards people for good acts would reward people who did good acts for selfish reasons.


All possible creator variants other than Christian (or is it Jewish) God, make Pascal's wager start to backfire hard as they'd be inclined to punish ypu for believing in the fake/wrong god.
Yes, but all God variants fall into one of three options presented above.


If God is such a deceptive trickster that he never once probes himself and lets you tely on tbe same level of deluded hope as a schizophrenic has with their dekusions or hallucinations, is this the kind of God you trust would be true to the Bible and put you in heaven? anyway?
Would it be wise to question God's decisions if we dont fully understand them? Besides, believing that God is deceptive trickster would be harmful for your afterlife more than placing your trust in God, if Christian God turns out to be real.
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@Stephen
Wouldn't your all powerful god see through the fraud?
God would know, of course, that the only reason you are refusing to sin is because you have considered the possibility of God. That would put you above those who have considered the possibility of God, rejected it and continued sinning.
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@Best.Korea
First, if there was a God who rewarded atheists and punished Christians, such God would have to be immoral since most of Christians have similar or better morality than what atheists have.
This doesn't make such a god more or less likely than the Christian deity. Assuming the existence of gods for the sake of argument, how does OP know gods are moral? 

Second, the greatest religions on Earth are against atheism.
Again, this doesn't make the atheist loving God less likely. popularity=/=true

Option 3) is more likely than option 2), since moral and reasonable God is more likely than immoral and unreasonable God who prefers atheism.
We've seen nothing substantive to show a god must be moral or reasonable. Plus, theres a huge elephant in the room being ignored here: the Christian deity doesn't meet this standard either.  

However, if a person is an atheist, it does increase his chances of being immoral.
Not being a Christian increases the odds of not following Christian morality, which isn't the same thing as being immoral. 

The conclusion is a non-sequitor.
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@SkepticalOne
We've seen nothing substantive to show a god must be moral or reasonable. Plus, theres a huge elephant in the room being ignored here: the Christian deity doesn't meet this standard either. 
Fun argument.

Can we say that unreasonable God is as likely as reasonable God? Because our world has consistent laws which imply that if it is created by God, it is created by reasonable God.

If God is reasonable, he would not reward atheists, as explained before. There is no logical reason to think atheism is a correct path. There is no logical reason for reasonable God to reward those who thought something for no logical reason. Therefore, there is no logical reason for reasonable God to reward atheists.

Can we say that immoral God is as likely to exist as moral God? Plus, that such immoral God prefers atheists due to their immorality?

Even immoral God would like to be praised, and not to be called names by atheists and not to be judged by atheists all the time, but lets explore a different option.

Lets assume that immoral God is as likely, because I want to make another point.

If you really believe in this, then you have to choose in life to either be moral or immoral to please moral or immoral God.

Given that, according to you, chances are 50/50:

Which would you choose: immorality or morality?

If your answer is morality, then you cannot please an immoral God, but only a moral God.

So if you prefer morality, then you have two options: either be an atheist and decrease your reward in the afterlife because atheism decreases morality, either be a believer and increase your reward in the afterlife by increasing your morality.

Not being a Christian increases the odds of not following Christian morality, which isn't the same thing as being immoral.
Christian morality is the morality which would be supported by moral God. Moral God would be against killing. Christian morality is against killing. The rest of morality relates to that.
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@Best.Korea
Wouldn't your all powerful god see through the fraud?

God would know, of course, that the only reason you are refusing to sin is because you have considered the possibility of God.

😂

One has to have reason to believe. An atheist doesn't simply start  believing . Simply "considering" a god exists is not even close to believing ..

 Your argument is as dumb as Pascal's wager.

  


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@Stephen
Yet there I talked about not doing sin because of a possibility that God exists, not the full belief that God exists.

Pascal's wager isnt there to prove God. It is merely a probability argument.
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@Best.Korea
Can we say that unreasonable God is as likely as reasonable God? Because our world has consistent laws which imply that if it is created by God, it is created by reasonable God.
A world with consistent laws does not necessarily require a creator - reasonable or otherwise. 

There is no logical reason to think atheism is a correct path.
Sure there is. The absence of expected evidence for X is good reason not to accept the existence of X.

There is no logical reason for reasonable God to reward those who thought something for no logical reason. 
Atheism is not about belief on little or no evidence - it's about not believing because thats what the evidence supports.  Believers is what you're describing. 

Can we say that immoral God is as likely to exist as moral God?
Sure. I would prefer "unlikely", but I won't quibble. 

Even immoral God would like to be praised,
I don't know what you're basing this claim on. I think you're dubiously assuming an unnatural being would have human preferences and desires. 

Which would you choose: immorality or morality?

If your answer is morality, then you cannot please an immoral God, but only a moral God.
Just to be clear, you're holding up as an example of a 'moral god' a being that is thought to require human sacrifice (of his son) and cannibalism as a pathway to heaven for humans? ...the same one that prescribes infinite torture for finite wrongdoing?

If that is "moral", there's a fair chance different moral standards result in something more sensical and less cruel. 

Christian morality is the morality which would be supported by moral God. Moral God would be against killing. Christian morality is against killing. The rest of morality relates to that.
The Bible shows plenty of example of the Christian deity condoning or participating in killing (murder). Again, if that is your standard of morality, falling short of it is not all bad. 
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     Pascal died when he was only 39.
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@SkepticalOne
A world with consistent laws does not necessarily require a creator - reasonable or otherwise.
The argument was about reasonable vs. unreasonable creator, not about creator vs. no creator.


Sure there is. The absence of expected evidence for X is good reason not to accept the existence of X.
If there is a good reason to accept the existence of God, then God should be accepted. Accepting the existence of God increases morality. Increasing morality is a good reason to accept the existence of God. Therefore, God should be accepted. 

Further, accepting the existence of God increases chance for happy afterlife.

Further, not accepting the existence of God is flawed, as there is no evidence or hint that God doesnt exist. If there is no evidence for a lack of existence of God, then lacking a belief in God is not a more logical position. Therefore, lacking a belief in God is not more true or more logical than having a belief in God.


Atheism is not about belief on little or no evidence - it's about not believing because thats what the evidence supports.
As explained, there is no evidence that supports the lack of belief in God.


I don't know what you're basing this claim on. I think you're dubiously assuming an unnatural being would have human preferences and desires.
Your position implied that there is immoral God who prefers atheists who mock him. God who has no human preferences is possible, but God who has some human preferences is also possible.

Therefore, in order for atheism to have a happy ending, there would need to be an immoral God who prefers atheists, doesnt mind that atheists dont believe in him for no reason, doesnt mind that atheists judge him and hate him, plus who hates Christians.

Funny, because such God is literally Satan. Now, due to too many assumptions, such God is less likely.

Moral God would, by logic, reward moral people.

However, immoral God would not, by logic, reward immoral people. Immoral God could punish everyone, since his immorality lets him do that.

Therefore, atheists must hope that immoral God exists who is good to immoral people. They cannot just hope for any immoral God, but specifically for the one who rewards evil people.


Just to be clear, you're holding up as an example of a 'moral god' a being that is thought to require human sacrifice (of his son) and cannibalism as a pathway to heaven for humans? ...the same one that prescribes infinite torture for finite wrongdoing?
If that is "moral", there's a fair chance different moral standards result in something more sensical and less cruel.
You are dodging the question, but I will assume that you would prefer to obey God who is moral, given that there is 50/50 chance of God being moral or immoral.
Christian God is obviously moral. It is moral to ban killing. Christian God banned killing.

Now, about your unnecessary comments on the Christian God.
Moral God would want for people to learn true ways. Moral God decides true ways. People cannot learn true ways if true ways arent introduced to them. Moral God would introduce true ways by making himself known.
If moral God exists, moral God would make himself known to the people. Christian God made himself known to the people. Christian God is moral God, or moral God doesnt exist at all. Now, before you say that there is islam, Quran claims that God who wrote Quran also wrote the Bible. Therefore, we are not talking about different Gods or different moral systems. The only widely known God is the one who wrote the Bible.


The Bible shows plenty of example of the Christian deity condoning or participating in killing (murder). Again, if that is your standard of morality, falling short of it is not all bad.
Killing is good if it results in saving lives. Killing done by God of the Bible resulted in saving lives. Killing done by God of the Bible is good.
Consider this.
To support the "thou shall not kill", one needs to kill those who kill. Not killing those who kill would result in them killing a lot more. Therefore, not killing those who kill would violate the "thou shall not kill". God of the Bible killed those who kill, therefore prevented them from killing.
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@Best.Korea
What if GOD was actually omni-sensible?


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@Best.Korea
If atheism is right, both Christians and atheists end the same.

If Christianity is right, then most of the atheists go to hell to burn.

Pascal's wager is a probability based argument that says that we should believe in God to increase our chances of happy afterlife.
Suppose I hold a belief that if you die, you will be happier than any Christian will be in the afterlife and the God just puts everyone in Heaven without discrimination. According to this argument, everyone should believe me.

The fact the dominant religion is not like this is in itself a reason why this argument is not only theoretically unsupported but incorrect to the population.

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@Intelligence_06
God just puts everyone in Heaven without discrimination.
That means both atheists and Christians end up in Heaven.


Suppose I hold a belief that if you die, you will be happier than any Christian will be in the afterlife
That falls under option 2. Atheists end up better than Christians. You said Christians end up in heaven too. Therefore, no harm in being a Christian.


According to this argument, everyone should believe me
Well, no. Your belief is not more likely than Christian God.
Therefore, being a Christian would 1) send me to heaven if Christianity is right, 2) Send me to heaven if your belief turns out right.
However, not being a Christian would 1) Send me to hell if Christianity turns out right, 2) Send me to heaven if your belief turns out right.
So the best option is still to be a Christian.


The fact the dominant religion is not like this is in itself a reason why this argument is not only theoretically unsupported but incorrect to the population.
The way you want for religion to be has nothing to do with that religion being likely true.
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@zedvictor4
What if GOD was actually omni-sensible?
You mean, God who rewards everyone irrelevant of their religion?

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@Best.Korea
Well, just omni sensible.

Whereby I'm not even sure that a reward system would be deemed necessary


Though a GOD that rewards everyone?

Is that a slight shift in your thinking?
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@zedvictor4
Is that a slight shift in your thinking?
😁 

It is possible. Whats possible must be considered as such.
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A world with consistent laws does not necessarily require a creator - reasonable or otherwise.
The argument was about reasonable vs. unreasonable creator, not about creator vs. no creator.
"A world with consistent laws does not require a creator" undermines you're explanation for why a creator must be reasonable. 

Sure there is. The absence of expected evidence for X is good reason not to accept the existence of X.
If there is a good reason to accept the existence of God, then God should be accepted.
Thats not what I said. I do not have good reason to accept the existence of a creator.

Not to run down a rabbit hole, but I was simply trying to correct your misapprehension of atheism - it's not a competing claim to theism, but a null position. 

Atheism is not about belief on little or no evidence - it's about not believing because thats what the evidence supports.
As explained, there is no evidence that supports the lack of belief in God.
And there doesn't have to be - that's the point. There needs to be evidence for belief. There does not need to be evidence for non belief.  Atheism is the latter. 

Your position implied that there is immoral God who prefers atheists who mock him. God who has no human preferences is possible, but God who has some human preferences is also possible.
Possible is not a stable foundation. It's speculation, and I see no reason to entertain it.  There is no legitimate "therefore" when youre multiple layers into imagination. 

You are dodging the question, but I will assume that you would prefer to obey God who is moral, given that there is 50/50 chance of God being moral or immoral.
What was the question? I choose to do the right thing. That does not mean do what someone else tells me. It does not mean follow a bad example of morality either. 
My point was simply that the deity you're holding up as the standard of morality is not moral. That throws the whole thought experiment askew. 

Christian God is obviously moral. It is moral to ban killing. Christian God banned killing.
...and then proceeded to condone and participate in exceptions. I question the moral label you're trying to attach to this deity.  I don't believe you have fully integrated the Bible into your god-concept. 

Killing is good if it results in saving lives. Killing done by God of the Bible resulted in saving lives. Killing done by God of the Bible is good.
If God is moral because he banned killing, then violating that rule makes him immoral. You can't have it both ways. 
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@SkepticalOne
"A world with consistent laws does not require a creator" undermines you're explanation for why a creator must be reasonable.
If world has a creator, such creator must be reasonable, since world is reasonable. Therefore, reasonable creator would create a reasonable world. Unreasonable creator would not create a reasonable world. Therefore, either the world has no creator, or it has a reasonable creator. It cannot have an unreasonable creator, as you originally claimed. World created by unreasonable creator would be an unreasonable world with unreasonable laws, since unreasonable creator cannot create reasonable things.


Thats not what I said. I do not have good reason to accept the existence of a creator. Not to run down a rabbit hole, but I was simply trying to correct your misapprehension of atheism - it's not a competing claim to theism, but a null position.
Null position still requires a reason to be reasonable. Not believing in God for no reason is unreasonable. You say that you dont have a reason to not believe. Therefore, your lack of belief is not based on reason. Reasonable, by definition, requires a reason.


And there doesn't have to be - that's the point. There needs to be evidence for belief. There does not need to be evidence for non belief.  Atheism is the latter.
This is false reasoning.
Your logic goes like: Non-belief is correct if it does not have evidence to support it. Non-belief does not have evidence to support it. Non-belief is correct.
The problem with such logic is that non-belief in such logic would be correct by that same logic, since lack of belief in logic is correct since such lack of belief doesnt have evidence to support it.

In order for lack of belief to be correct, lack of belief needs to have a reason. Lack of belief doesnt have a reason. Therefore, lack of belief is not correct.

It is correct to believe in something that exists. Lack of belief in something that exists is incorrect. There exists a possibility that God exists. Therefore, lack of belief in such possibility is incorrect.

It is reasonable to act according to the possibility. Therefore, it is reasonable to act according to the possibility that God exists.

People have lack of belief in God for no reason. It is not correct for people to have lack of belief for no reason. It is not correct for people to have a lack of belief in God.

Correct means to have a reason. Lack of belief in God doesnt have a reason. Therefore, lack of belief in God is not correct.


Possible is not a stable foundation. It's speculation, and I see no reason to entertain it.  There is no legitimate "therefore" when youre multiple layers into imagination
There is a reason to accept possibilities. God is a possibility. Therefore, there is a reason to accept God. Since we are dealing with the unknown, possibilities are the only thing we have. Therefore, if stable foundation is the most logical path, and the most logical path is possibility, then stable foundation is possibility.


I choose to do the right thing. That does not mean do what someone else tells me. It does not mean follow a bad example of morality either.
Choosing to do whats right is good, since it pleases the moral God, if he exists.


My point was simply that the deity you're holding up as the standard of morality is not moral. That throws the whole thought experiment askew.
Christian God is moral, since he banned killing. Banning killing is moral.


...and then proceeded to condone and participate in exceptions. I question the moral label you're trying to attach to this deity.  I don't believe you have fully integrated the Bible into your god-concept.
Not exceptions. Killing that prevents killing upholds the "thou shall not kill", it is not an exception to it.


If God is moral because he banned killing, then violating that rule makes him immoral. You can't have it both ways.
He did not violate that rule. 

Preventing killing upholds the "thou shall not kill". One bad person would kill lots of people. Killing one bad person prevents killing. Therefore, killing one bad person upholds the "thou shall not kill" rule.
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Not exceptions. Killing that prevents killing upholds the "thou shall not kill", it is not an exception to it.
Uh huh. Sure. 😂

I think we gotten far enough into the weeds that we've circled back to where we started - this is where we part ways. Thanks for the discussion!
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@Best.Korea
Undoubtedly.