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@drafterman
Omg👏there👏is👏a👏whole👏game👏theory👏section👏dedicated👏to👏no👏killing👏
There are also numerous discussions dedicated to it.
You👏also👏don't👏understand👏theory👏crafting👏
Theorycraft (or theorycrafting) is the mathematical analysis of game mechanics to discover optimal strategies and tactics. Theorycraft often involves analyzing hidden systems or underlying game code in order to glean information that is not apparent during normal gameplay.
Normal gameplay actually doesn't have a damn thing to do with theorycrafting. Your point of, "bring up a game on DDO where its been done" is irrelevant and tangential to the validity of the theories mathematical framework.
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@drafterman
You're entire argument is built around this single point that you can't defend.
No it's not. I've already explained why that doesn't matter. Because for it to, SoP on DDO has to always be correct. And mafia players on DDO must never research anything regardimg mafia, or have never played elsewhere other than DDO so as for it to never occur to anyone playing here.
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@drafterman
Yet when asked to back up his claim that waiving NK's at MYLO is SOP, is what Mafia generally does, is what game theory and logic demands, he can't provide a single example.
I never said it was SoP. I again, asked if it was. Because it not being SoP seemed foolish AF given the outlined arguments.
Why TF would I look thru DDO's archives, when my point still stands regardless of whether or not I even find such a game on DDO. Whether or not it's been done on DDO is irrelevant to it's being largely beneficial to mafia when town VTNL's
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@drafterman
Budda is both voting me because he thinks I'm scum and agreeing with Vaarka's assessment that I'm town!
I didn't agree with him. The posts were literally just made and you can't stop yourself from disgenuinely shading them.
I started out voting for you. I reconsidered and tried to parse through possibilities. You continue to make yourself look scummier by disgenuinely recounting/blatantly lying. So that possibility was far less likely because now you've started acting scummy AF.
I said
"That's what I've been trying to get him to consider"
Note, my apologies for not using "was". For someone who couldn't tell the difference between a question and a statement despite a question mark being used, pointing out mistakes inigrammar is rather hypocritical and laughable.
On top of that, "trying to get him to consider"
Doesn't mean agreeing with his assessment. Rather considering something means you think carefully about something BEFORE making a decision.
to think about carefully: such asa: to think of especially with regard to taking some action
Considering something doesn't mean agreeance with it. Your lack of consideration does however highlight you are far from town. Because a part of ur VTNL advocacy should have been that, but wasnt. Indicating you knew ahead of time there were no flavors. Probably because you know ur not cop, and the chance of flavored cop when only one cop is present is minimal.
First you fail to differentiate between a question and a statement when a question mark is used. Then you fail to comprehend probabilities. Then you fail to comprehend language?
I get that manufacturing scum reads is difficult. But man, ur SR of me is grasping at straws and WIFOM'd AF beyond
"Oh EmM GeE I HaVe A GuiLtY"
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@drafterman
"You really tryna say there would be two cops in an 8 player game? Highly unlikely
Yes, and as highly unlikely as that may be. It may still be a possibility. This possibility along with other points refutes the silly notion that VTNL'ing couldn't ever possibly backfire on town, now wouldn't it?
Again, its not my fault you are disgenuinely shading and/or blatantly lying in your recounts of events/analysis. That's your own doing. I was willing to entertain we both may be town because you were still coming across towny. You aren't anymore, now there are behavioral tells to back up that you are scum.
Please oh paragon on sensibility, please do tell us more about how opposing teams are incentivized to operate in a manner that benefits the other side, and how closed set-up games don't at all differ from open set-up games.
I'm all ears for some more of this A++ analysis of yours 😂😂
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@drafterman
Budda: I've been trying to say that me and drafterman are both town!
Its not my fault you are acting scummy AF and disgenuinely shading and/or blatantly lying about things.
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Honestly, if ur gonna keep bringing up that same point Drafter. There's not much point to continuing to argue with you.
Obviously players never research game theory and SoP on DDO is gospel and always right, and following SoP totally makes someone town, even despite both you and GP VTNL'ing last game, which is still the general SoP here last i checked as VTNL's still seem to happen more often than D1 lynches.
On another note, its important to examine Drafters analysis here. Note that in his recap/analysis of my actions DP1 he points out
"he didn't vote Ethan to be lynched until later in the DP."
This implying that me voting him at that point was scummy because pressuring him earlier would have been too easy.
But this just belies an astounding lack of awareness of his own behavior. He didnt advocate for Ethan's lynch until later in the DP if he even did, cause I don't remember him doing so.
Instead he pressured Ethan early on during RVS. Unvoted when he claimed, then revoted, shortly after Pie and I did upon Pie pointing out Ethan called someone town and scum in the same post. Even then, that was just for a roleclaim.
This is shallow vote analysis that is totally unaware of his own behavior that makes him scummy for the same reason, as well as trying to pre-empt this proceeding point. That his pressure on EthanG during RVS, his backing off of that sus and revoting Pie for disgenuine reasons. Then re-SR'ing Ethan this DP despite there being no new present information to change his final disposition, all illistrates that he is scummy AF.
One common trope of the RVS is that scum players will vote for each other or otherwise start their distancing early. For some time, this was a commonly applied tell.
What Drafter did with Pie also looks a hell of alot like a flashwagon.
- Flashwagons are commonly held to be more likely scum-motivated, as many votes in succession can indicate carelessness or coordination.
His VCA is weak AF
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@Vaarka
Despite your disagreements, I get the feeling you're both town.
This is exactly what I've been trying to get him to consider. That we both, or one of us, could be flavored and we're both town. I even brought up by EthanG cause we're both now apparently scumreading him. Despite zero new information on EthanG being present from when he backed off that suspicion.
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@drafterman
Because of my results. From my PM. That say that you're guilty.
And those results could be flavored. Tell me, are you now going to propose flavors are out of the question? How would you know otherwise as a town cop?
Your reasons beyond that guilty for holding me as scum are WIFOM or "OmG hE HaS tHe AudAcITY tO PoInT oUT tHaT a vTnL is rubbish." How dare he use probabilities to point out that killing at MYLO generally harms mafia, and helps town.
Seriously, again, I'm competitions is the general expectation that the opposing team will intentionally act in a manner that largely benefits your team? Cause that's not how competition works, like at all.
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@drafterman
Except classic on EM is open set-up. And that strat is stupid because it falls to NK doc gambit often.
Tell me you understand that a game being open set-up as opposed to closed set-up, changes how a game generally operates?
Being open, you can guarantee neither cop claim will die. You can also guarantee it's an either/or, 1/2 base odds.
Neither of which can be guaranteed in a closed set-up game. Again, tell me you comprehend the difference between open set-up and closed set-up games?
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@drafterman
My case is, and has always been: I'm the cop. You are guilty.
And that we should VTNL. You say I'm guilty because of pure WIFOM.
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@drafterman
If we VTNL, and we get investigative results: We are better off.
No we are not better off. By what basis are those results going to become more trustable? Town is still left lynching between us at 50% probability.
Mafia has to waive their NK because of logic.
As I've said before, another possibility is we are both town. Mafia kills one of us, and oh shit, town lynches the other as a consequence. Town loses.
So no, town could end up screwed by VTNL'ing. Its not as cut and dry as "town will be no worse off regardless"
This kind of blatant misrepresentation and blatant lack of addressal of my points in why VTNL'ing at MYLO is nonsense, is ridiculous.
You really don't like that I ruined that gambit ahead of time huh? Starting to look like thats exactly what's going on here. Because,
Mafia has to waive their NK because of logic.
This doesn't even address why my points are incorrect. I also didn't say they "have" to. You'll note I said mafia is incentivized to kill if there is a player they deem should be eliminated. They also would kill if we're both town.
Both actions would net a benefit for mafia. However killing unless the above conditions are present, would result in a net harm by increasing baseline probabilities of lynching the other scum from 1 in 4 to 1 in 3.
So again, no, it's not as cut and dry as ur making it out to be.
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Just like your analysis on me early DP. WIFOM, i I could easily just as say
It makes total sense GP died if Drafter is scum. GP was FoS'ing me for garb reasons. But nonetheless FoS'ing me, therefore his death becomes a handy thing to point to and go
"OmG hE waS FoS'iNg BudDa ThErEfoRE BuDdA iS ScuM CauSe He Died"
Ethan was FoS'ing you, but congrats, he was almost lynched yesterday, and still looks scummy as a holdover. Why would he not stay alive if he's town? But hey, it does give some nice handy WIFOM
"DrAfTeR cAnT bE ScUm BeCaUsE He WoUlD HaVe KilLeD EtHaN"
Ur WIFOM'ing. Ur whole case is WIFOM built upon an assumed SoP that would be nonsensical for mafia to follow as illustrated.
Again, do you expect the opposing team in a competition to operate in a manner that helps you win, or them win? Pro-tip: it's the second one
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@drafterman
Is it better for mafia to push for a mislynch at MYLO or a NL at MYLO only to waive their kill on a gambit?
This assumes VTNL'ing is beneficial for town/the towny thing to do. You are basically saying, "hey, I could have pushed for a ML, but look at how I didn't! That makes me so town right?
When either way you pick it's beneficial. I would posit unless you are confident you can secure that lynch, you would choose the second path.
This is basically WIFOM
I could easily just as say, is it better for mafia to guilty the person who guiltied them, or produce an innocent result?
The obvious answer would be the first. But yet here I am, scum in your eyes and I claimed the second, less than obvious answer.
It's almost as if mafia are incentivized to never be overtly obvious in their actions. Imagine that
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@drafterman
Yeah now ur just blatantly lying about what I'm saying. I was willing to entertain us both being town. Not anymore, because though I can see you maybe thinking VTNL'ing at MYLO helped town, you haven't addressed the reasoning supplied for why it actually doesn't and chiefly benefits mafia, and continue to act as if mafia will choose to kill, when the cats out of the bag and they know no killing with a VTNL chiefly benefits them.
VTL Drafter
I'm thinking ur pissed because I just cut off ur plan to gambit a doc save in conjunction with a no kill with this. Hence why you flipped from "we could both be town" to "no you must be scum."
If you actually thought VTNL'ing was the best choice, it'd be the best choice regardless of whether you thought I was scum or town. But something tells me that has changed 😏
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@drafterman
Like I said, are you pissed that I screwed you being able to no kill/doc save gambit?
Or are you just being obtuse as to what is very simple game theory.
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@drafterman
Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.
Cats already out of the bag hombre. It doesn't matter whats been done on DDO. I just explained why it's largely unbeneficial for mafia to kill at MYLO. Meanwhile all you can do is say
"BuT ItS NoT BeEn DoNe On DdO."
Even assuming mafia is only played on DDO. And also assuming players here NEVER look up mafia theory, I just outlined exactly why killing at MYLO would be stupid. You really think Mafia are gonna go ahead and kill someone when they now fully realize it wouldn't be in their benefit to?
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And you do realize you look more like Ethan's teammate rignt? Hardcore push him the whole DP then switch at the end to lynch a townie?
Vote Count Analysis would peg you as scum AF based off that, with EthanG being your likely teammate.
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@drafterman
So you think EthanG is my scum partner? Ok cool, cause I think he is scum too. Shall we lynch him?
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@drafterman
Ur more than welcome to argue as to why my points on why the SoP is terribad are actually incorrect. But I see all you can do is scream
"BuT SoP hErE Is FoR MaFiA tO KilL"
And how long did you think a mafia SoP that more greatly benefits town, was going to last anyways? Do you often expect opposing teams to operate in your sides benefit in competitions?
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@drafterman
And regardless of whether or not it's SoP here, cats out of the bag hombre. If mafia were gonna kill, there sure not going to now that I pointed out killing at MYLO is largely unbeneficial.
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@drafterman
It's SOP!It's SOP?
You are more than welcome to point out where I said it as a statement of fact and not a question. Else you are blatantly lying.
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@drafterman
Now I'm willing to concede we might both be town. That would mean 2/4 of remaining players have mafia within. This is still 50% base probability.
So either one of us is scum in which case it's 1/2 and 1/4.
Or neither of us is in which case it's 2/4.
But VTNL'ing isnt going to produce some magically game breaking result. It only leaves the potential for a no kill gambit present, and either hurts town via the loss of a player mafia specifically wants to eliminate, or a return to the status quo tomorrow.
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Congrats, it's probably MYLO. That means town risks a loss with any lynch. So acting as if that's a reason to not lynch is just not bright. Because then you might as well advocate that town just not ever lynch when that lynch can result in a loss.
Which just means either mafia wins, or the game freezes in place and never proceeds past that point.
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The smart choice would be to either decide and stick to the path that one of us is scum, the other is town, and lynch between.
Or try to lynch scum out of the other 4.
Reagrdless of whether we do either of those or VTNL, the risk of a loss with a mislynch will be present regardless.
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I'm willing to acknowledge you might otherwise think VTNL'ing at MYLO is smart, because mafia have generally always killed regardless on DDO. But times change, the game evolves. Again, VTNL'ing on DP1 was always done, until people realized it generally benefits mafia to do so.
Just like VTNL'ing at MYLO leaves the choice entirely up to mafia. Either there is someone they can kill which will help their cause, or they can choose to no kill and return to the status quo of the previous DP, leaving town right back where they started with no change to baseline probabilities.
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@drafterman
Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.
Please reference first that DDO is the only place mafia is ever played and people never play mafia anywhere else.
This is funny, you can't actually address my points as to why the SoP of VTNL'ing at MYLO is stupid. So instead you go , "BuT MaFiA RaReLy If EveR dO iT oN DdO" as if DDO is the only place mafia is ever played, and people never ever deviate from DDO SoP.
And you wanna laugh at me as if im stupid? Who is the one that cant differentiate between a question and a statement? Who is the one who isn't comprehending basic probabilities and that 1/4 is less than 1/3?
You call it a random lynch, but a likely 1/2 is one of the highest base probabilities town would ever get in a game. Even guilties are essentially a 1/2 because either the person's guilty or the cops lying. So it's still an either/or pick, 50% base probability.
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@drafterman
VTNL'ing at MYLO is absolutely stupid though. I'm sorry you can't comprehend probability. I'm also sorry that you obviously think DDO SoP is gospel. It's not, just like VTNL'ing DP1 wasn't gospel because rationally and mathematically it doesn't make sense.
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@drafterman
The post was
No killing at MYLO is SoP, no?
It was a question. Because on EM it happens often. My primary experience is from there, hence why I reference it.
I must have missed the part in grammar where questions are statements of fact?
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I said assuming a kill at MYLO is stupid because generally mafia do not benefit from it, town does.
That doesnt mean it's SoP. Just like VTNL'ing on DP1 being stupid, doesn't change that most of the time there are still VTNL's.
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@drafterman
Budda is claiming that something that never happens is SOP
Where did i ever claim it was SoP?
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@drafterman
Lol did i just blow up ur No-kill Gambit ahead of time? You planning on having ur scummate claim doc with a save after a no kill?
Cause it's looking an awfully lot like ur pissed that I'm pointing out how maf NK'ing at MYLO is actually generally unbeneficial to them? Whether they kill or not, they're still one lynch away from a win regardless.
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@drafterman
Oh, but you can't. Because it doesn't happen because it isn't SOP.
I must have missed the part where DDO SoP is gospel and is always followed. I'm left wondering why pie was lynched though because SoP on DDO is to VTNL DP1 😏
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@drafterman
Reference a single DDO game where mafia waived a kill at MYLO, or GTFO.
Oh wow, because the only place where mafia is ever played is DDO. And the players who play here, only ever play here and certainly don't pick up on superior strategies elsewhere or through grade school probability analysis and rationale.
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@drafterman
Budda is blatantly lying about how this game is played.
No I'm not, neither of us are. You are using experience primarily from here as to what SoP's have been here. But the SoP's here are not always good choices. VTNL'ing DP1 is one of those SoP's thats a poor choice. VTNL'ing at MYLO is another one.
My arguments here are if anything super consistent with my general view of mafia. This is one of the exact reasons why I argue against VTNL's on DP1 too.
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@drafterman
Dude its called a no-kill gambit.
Always lynch. Scum are under no obligation to kill, and will do so if they believe it helps them. So basically, by nolynching, you're saying to the scum 'Hey, if you think you can improve your chances by killing, we'll let you, otherwise we'll return to the status quo.'
VTNL'ing places the power right back in the hands of mafia. If they kill, they kill someone beneficial to them winning. Or they no kill and we're right back at this exact same point tomorrow
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@drafterman
If we're wrong, we lose. Why risk it?
How do you propose town magically rise themselves out of MYLO so as to not be risking a loss with any lynch? Do you possibly the means of reviving dead townies to take us out of MYLO?
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@drafterman
Also, I'd be interested in you linking to any game where Mafia waived a kill because it was MYLO
Happens all the time on Epic Mafia and other mafia sites. No kill followed by fake doc/nk save claim, or even just no killing at MYLO to keep probabilities the lowest. This is a weak AF argument in line with Danielle last game and "VTNL'ing used to be the standard"
So? Mathematically it's half the time the absolute wrong choice. Just like killing at MYLO is mathematically the wrong choice for mafia. It's not gonna take a genius to compromise that
1/4(25%) is less than 1/3(33.3_%). That ls not exactly game breaking analysis, it's grade school percentages.
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@drafterman
They will kill someone else.
This is stock untrue. Mafia have no incentive to make town choice in who to lynch easier if they are a lynch away from a win. In this situation assuming one of us is scum.
Well, this is just a flat out lie. There is almost never a case where Mafia would want to waive their kill.
And this, if it is MYLO, is one of them where they would no kill because killing actually helps town by eliminating via PoE and increasing the probability of lynching scum.
There is literally no benefit to risking a game loss right now as opposed to waiting until the next phase
And there is going to be that same risk tomorrow.
That doesn't "screw town" it just means we're in the same position,
You obviously misunderstood this. I was saying if we are both town, town is screwed because one of us dies at that point, causing the lynch of the other.
VTNL'ing is not some brilliant idea as you probably because again, you said it and I said it
it just means we're in the same position tomorrow
And having to "random lynch" between us. Do you not comprehend probabilities? How is 1/4(25%) greater than 1/2(50%)? If 1/2 is a random lynch, then 1/4 is pissing in the wind.
Again, you are trying to present VTNl'ing as if it's smart, likely because
with the potential for more investigative results.
When town can't trust either of our results and is still going to be left lynching "randomly"(lol) between us tomorrow.
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@drafterman
I'm also gonna put a bardic inspiration on Roberts as a bonus action
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@drafterman
So again, i have to ask you because I'm not seeing the benefit in it for town as a whole, what benefit do you propose VTNL'ing actually has? Or were/are you just pulling that one out of ur rear?
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@drafterman
Honestly your advocacy here is the first thing I'm finding scummy in your behavior. You are acting as if VTNL'ing is 100% the town thing to do, when no it isn't when mafia can no kill.
So basically, advocating a VTNL if we're both town, screws town. If one of us is town and the other scum, is assures neither of us dies and town has to choose the same tomorrow
And likely doesn't eliminate anyone via PoE outside of us two as the standard at MYLO is a no kill and maf keeps probabilities as low as possible for the other players.
So because I can actually recognize the stupidity in VTNL'ing, that makes me scum? That's some stellar logic right up there with emojis.
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@drafterman
Are you assuming mafia kills one more? Why wouldn't they no kill? Mafia killing at MYLO would be stupid FMPOV. SoP is to no kill at MYLO as mafia, and let town sweat it out, no?
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@drafterman
Dude. It's MYLO. You've already revealed your affiliation by suggesting we random lynch at MYLO.
No, ur saying it as if its a given that we VTNL. When again, if we dont lynch between us and one of us dies. Is that miraculously not going to result in the other getting lynched?
If both of us are town, VTNL'ing either moves off the "random" lynch to tomorrow, or assure one of us dies and the other gets subsequently mislynched. You act as if VTNL'ing is some sort of sensible solution when I don't see that sensibility. What I see out of it is that we're doing this same lynch tomorrow if we VTNL.
So again, how is VTNL'ing some obvious indicator of affiliation when it's not actually going to help? You wanna say I look like scum, ur the one who is acting like VTNL'ing is actually going to change anything about the probability of a lynch between you and I.
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@drafterman
Snerp runs after the vampire ahead of the group, mindful of keeping the group out of a 15 foot range. When he gets close he casts Thunder Wave(cast thunder wave w/ lvl 2 spell slot).
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@Earth
@TheDredPriateRoberts
(so you want I dash after and thunderwave him, and then y'all finish him off? Would require you both stay 15 feet away)
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(I wish I could know whether he's turned or not before submitting action. Cause then I could intercept him the same round once he's out of the 15 foot cube range of all you.)
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(ok so Eikkas turn dead should take hold first in which case)
Snerp pulls out his bow and fires an arrow at Doru as he runs.
(If I may suggest staying a slight distance back if he starts running? I'll dash with him, get a safe distance and thunderwave him.)
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@secularmerlin
(he's already injured, you sure that's even necessary?)
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@drafterman
Entertaining the thought that we're both town and cops. That would pretty much mean we're effed, unless protective makes a save one of us is dying and the other would likely get lynched as a result.
What do you propose VTNL'ing will do?
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