Sources of existential risk

Author: Tejretics ,

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  • Tejretics
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    Tejretics
    Do you think humanity might face some kind of existential threat in the next two centuries?

    Even if you think human extinction in the twenty-first century is unlikely -- I think it's really, really unlikely, I estimate about a 1% chance of it happening -- if human extinction is to occur, what do you think the most likely causes might be? Proposed causes include anthropogenic global warming, strong artificial intelligence, nuclear war, cybersecurity-related issues (e.g., destruction of critical infrastructure by cyberterrorism), biotechnology risk, and even "cosmic risk" (e.g., vacuum decay if the universe is in a false vacuum, Jupiter's gravitational pull making Mercury's orbit unstable).

    As an extension of this -- to be a bit more specific -- what are your thoughts on strong AI research and the development of strong AI more generally?



  • Analgesic.Spectre
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    --> @Tejretics
    My goodness! No one has the ability to accurately predict the world 200 years into the future. To envision a better perspective of how ludicrous your request is, consider someone from the early 1800s predicting the internet and digital storage, cars, aviation etc. There's just no way -- it's a wild guess. Alas, you'll have some of Dart's finest throw their guesses at you, thinking they're intelligent predictions with any merit.

    As an extension of this -- to be a bit more specific -- what are your thoughts on strong AI research and the development of strong AI more generally?
    Whilst I'm being hyper-generalised, I think AI development is the way forward, in terms of human evolution. In particular, any cyborg or transhumanist advancements, of which blunt/eradicate human flaws, should be welcomed. Furthermore, having AI to complete menial tasks is an excellent solution to the inevitable problem advanced civilisations encounter, when they become too comfortable (they import foreign people, of which eventually turn on the natives).