The Heroes of Olympus Mafia DP1

Author: ILikePie5

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#421
WyIted
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@JoeBob
Gotcha. I was planning on being pretty active this DP, but then the April Fools mafia came up and I forgot about this one.
Not to be mean to mharman but please prioritize this game. That game was labeled quickfire and he has made NKs impossible and made it hard for us to justify lynches
#422
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@whiteflame
And, despite not having his vote on him, WyIted calls him out on wanting to read the DP thoroughly before providing his thoughts. He mainly relates this to how he would personally behave, but he's not engaging with how JoeBob plays the game.
I think I sent you a PM in the past where this type of logic hurt Stalin. First in wrongly assuming Hitler would behave rationally and then further down the line when he advised North Korea to invade south korea because he assumed the United States would respond rationally. You did criticize this type of thinking and correctly pointed out how it hurt Stalin and when you were done I thought "That's odd, sure the mode of thought my harm him in some circumstances but by thinking this way he did ultimately become one of the most powerful men on the planet and without that style of thinking h would be in abject poverty" .

Essentially I scum hunt by analyzing how I would behave or by realizing my own urges and applying them to others. Plus Neville Goddard said everything is me pushed out, so besides being a strategy that has shown itself superior through how useful it was to Stalin, it's also a strategy that is spiritually in tune with God (myself).

Just because WyIted would do this as scum doesn't mean it's common behavior. I'm consistently hesitant to post without catching up, it's not indicative of anything for me. 

Well my vote isn't on him it is on the known scum. I figured we can wait until DP2 for him and that maybe our opinions on him will even change by then and we could potentially avoid a mislynch.


So, no, I don't understand this wagon at all. It comes off as trying to behaviorally sus him for reasons that don't match his play in previous games. I just don't buy it and I honestly don't understand how three different people approach sussing him so differently (minus the "utility" and "meaningful" statements from Vader and Luna) based off of different flavors of weak behavioral analysis. It doesn't make sense to me.

I think it's usually a good sign when people bring up different ways of thinking to bring up similar conclusions. It usually is a strong indicator that town is onto something. I also agree with Earth that scum reading noobs happens too much because they don't behave as expected so any reads on them need to be taken with a grain of salt and make us slightly more hesitant to vote them.

Also you seem to agree GP is the lynch here so are you going to hammer?
#423
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@Barney
Why did you choose DP5?
Do you honestly think GP puts that much thought into it. Honestly I think he doesn't even like playing but plays to do us a favor and make sure we can fill the game
#424
Earth
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Grey might have gave Pie a different time. Really all the more reason to just lunch him and move lmao.
#425
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I didn't consider that. DP5 in the dp to fuck with us but DP4 in PM . The least we can do is minimize his ability to control the outcome
#426
Earth
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Honestly I don't even know why there is a wagon on JoeBob. Let's be honest, he's probably town lmao.
#427
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I'm going to sleep. Don't expect me when the day ends.
#428
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@WyIted
Also you seem to agree GP is the lynch here so are you going to hammer?
I’m fine with hammering, but I want to hear from Luna before I do. Getting a greater understanding of how you and Vader are thinking about these wagons helps, and I’d like more from him as well. If it gets too late, I’ll put the hammer down regardless.
#429
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@whiteflame
I can tell you that like lunatic I see the wagon on joebob as a good sign. It's probably mostly town and slightly indicative of affiliation of the voters. Gp is easy for scum to jump on because it probably is a sense of relief for the scum team to survive a DP even if they don't get a mislynch so I can see it being an easier wagon for scum to join even if joebob is town. 

With that said, I still think it is better to lynch GP here. 
#430
JoeBob
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@WyIted
With that said, I still think it is better to lynch GP here.
I agree.
Topic's author
#431
ILikePie5
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Official Vote Count:

Greyparrot (5/6) - Best Korea, Wylted, JoeBob, Vader, Earth
JoeBob (2/6) - Grey, Lunatic

#432
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To be clear, I think JoeBob or BestKorea should be the lynch target DP2 unless we get any sort of info that points us in a different direction. But Grey from a logistical point makes the most sense as a whole based on joint win conditions, etc.
#433
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I suppose from a mechanical point of view, GP is probably the better lynch here. Just my thoughts:

To rehash what whiteflame and Earth said;
  • I buy that he is Prophet. Soldier is a town-aligned role (how did none of you consider this?), and Jester is bastard.
  • I buy that he did receive a fake roleclaim, if only because Frank and Soldier is a good justification
  • Therefore, it's likely that he submitted his guess privately.
  • DP5 seems unlikely, to say the least, it would take a very delicate balance of town and scum.
With that being said, he could screw town over as early as DP3 if we get two mislynches and two NKs in a row, giving us a 3 v 2 v 1 scenario where GP VTNLs and gives scum a victory.


That being said, I'm not really sure why Earth and whiteflame are so quick to dismiss Joebob. Behaviorally speaking, he's all over the place. 

First, the lurking. Lurking is what I would expect from newb scum. In the last mafia game, it was patently obvious that he was lurking during crucial moments in order to avoid attention. He also got defensive when being accused of lurking. For example, in the last game:

So because I was at school I’m a lurker? Fun. I’m going to read 7 pages of debates then get back to you with my reads.

Second, the sheeping and logical inconsistencies.

Throughout the DP, he's been looking for any way to justify voting GP. In particular, I'm surprised that no one called him out for saying that GP could be soldier (a useful town-aligned role) and then saying we should vote him out anyway. It feels like he's simply trying to take the pressure off himself.


Finally, I still don't understand why people are sussing BK. He read his role wrong and has been as behaviorally annoying as in previous games, as far as I can see.

#434
AustinL0926
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I suppose from a mechanical point of view, GP is probably the better lynch here. Just my thoughts:

To rehash what whiteflame and Earth said;
  • I buy that he is Prophet. Soldier is a town-aligned role (how did none of you consider this?), and Jester is bastard.
  • I buy that he did receive a fake roleclaim, if only because Frank and Soldier is a good justification
  • Therefore, it's likely that he submitted his guess privately.
  • DP5 seems unlikely, to say the least, it would take a very delicate balance of town and scum.
With that being said, he could screw town over as early as DP3 if we get two mislynches and two NKs in a row, giving us a 3 v 2 v 1 scenario where GP VTNLs and gives scum a victory.


That being said, I'm not really sure why Earth and whiteflame are so quick to dismiss Joebob. Behaviorally speaking, he's all over the place. 

First, the lurking. Lurking is what I would expect from newb scum. In the last mafia game, it was patently obvious that he was lurking during crucial moments in order to avoid attention. He also got defensive when being accused of lurking. For example, in the last game:

So because I was at school I’m a lurker? Fun. I’m going to read 7 pages of debates then get back to you with my reads.

Second, the sheeping and logical inconsistencies.

Throughout the DP, he's been looking for any way to justify voting GP. In particular, I'm surprised that no one called him out for saying that GP could be soldier (a useful town-aligned role) and then saying we should vote him out anyway. It feels like he's simply trying to take the pressure off himself.


Finally, I still don't understand why people are sussing BK. He read his role wrong and has been as behaviorally annoying as in previous games, as far as I can see.

#435
Greyparrot
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@AustinL0926
Exactly. I already knew I was going to be lynched through sheer mechanics, so why would WF make up a story?

Going full in on the soldier claim makes zero sense, no matter how you break it down. Unnecessary and sussy.
#436
Barney
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@Greyparrot
Good morning,

Since you’re at 5/6 I’m glad I didn’t vote to raise the pressure last night.

Why did you choose DP5 for your prediction? If you’ve already answered this, a link or copy/paste of your previous answer will do.
#437
whiteflame
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@AustinL0926
So, a couple of things I don’t really get from this post:

First, I can’t find anywhere that provides a specific alignment for Soldier. If you have a link to a site that is that clear about it being town-aligned, share it. I’ve seen a couple of variations on what it could be, though one of the more common ones is a Vig, which isn’t necessarily town aligned.

Second, my issue with the wagon on JoeBob isn’t that there is no basis for it. I’ve already acknowledged the lurking as a basis (and, to a lesser extent, the sheeping). My problem has been the specific behavioral cues that are setting people off, all of which seem to be issues that don’t take into account his past play and view in him a vacuum, which has become the common means of eliminating newer players early for some reason, often to our detriment. Beyond that, it would be one thing if they were pursuing him for a claim. It’s quite another to say that these reasons are sufficient for a lynch. I’m fine with pushing on him for future DPs. I want more information, which is part of the reason I’m fine with the lynch on GP since it will clear several things up for me. I don’t think just getting a lynch on JoeBob serves us as well (and frankly, I haven’t seen anyone justify its utility beyond just saying he’s behaviorally off), not with such limited scum tells that could easily be the result of playing two games at the same time (the lurking) or his scattered attempts to understand a role that’s been called out as a player who has never seen it before (the sheeping).

But it’s been generally agreed that, with two full claims on the board, we don’t want more information this DP, so I haven’t been pushing for it. I’d be fine getting his claim now. I’d be fine pursuing it at the start of the next DP, when I’ll have GP’s flip to consider. I’m just not fine lynching him now.
#438
Lunatic
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The growing wagon on greyparrot overnight if anything has solidified my read on joebob. I don’t think I town read white flame any longer either. That gigantic post dismissing my read on joebob seemed more carefully calculated than he probably seemed it to be.

We literally just got burned by joebob in the last game by letting him lurk throughout the whole game and post minimal analysis, and he came right out the gate saying that he would be more active. Then he lied blatantly about that and decided only to post when he had significant amount of pressure and when he did actually post his analysis was hot garbage intended to spin the lynch on the only other person who HAS a wagon which is GP. This isn’t a person with a low IQ or someone dumb. I’m giving him way more credit than that. He’s a debater, and I’ve seen posts from him that indicate maturity and thoughtfulness. And I don’t exactly how new he is but based on what I’ve interpreted here I expect he’s played in at least 3-4 games by now and knows how these things go. So giving someone the “he’s a noob” excuse only goes so far.

The way the wagon has shifted in light of only a three vote wagon and how everyone has turned from Joe on has solidified my scum read on him and I really think white flame should be a prime investigation target tonight after that lawyer defense trial he just did for Joe in excusing all of his behavior so far.

The joebob read isn’t just about having bad reads I disagree with, if it were I’d be pressuring BK or Vader. It’s about motivation to say and do certain things. Joebobs instinct is immediately to turn to directing the lynch to the only other person that he feels can be lynched today.

Joebob for me in the other hand is someone I actually have stated that I suspect and yes before the wagon on him even started. Town need to lynch to win, and going for Joebob is anything but opportunistic when he was in my scum pool the entirety of last game for doing the bare minimum and riding the coat tails of other Lynch’s that were better than him.

His play style is literally ver batim the exact same as last game.

I suspect greyparrot will be lynched. There could be some town in this one, but I think investigators should look at some of the last minute shift votes here, especially Joebob and whiteflame.
#439
AustinL0926
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@whiteflame
Don't have much time to reply rn but I'm very sure it's the soldier that's been seen on DART, where it wins with town if last alive. Nothing else makes sense as a fakeclaim
#440
Lunatic
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@whiteflame
Saying that we aren’t accomplishing anything by pursuing a joebob lynch seems silly. Of course he will claim, and that either aids the lynch by being a scummy claim or he saves himself and it is something where we can explain away his behavior as being “just being a joebob”, the way I only make excuses for RMs  behavior being scummy. Unfortunately letting people get away with the same thing over and over again isn’t my style and dismissing him as a noob is a disservice to him as a player. Austin is a “noob” to me as well and I don’t see anyone lumping him into this same category as Joebob. 

In the same foot lunching greyparrot doesn’t get us any information either if he just flips straight up 3rd party. We just see “wow grey parrot was being honest again like usual” we really accomplished something there. We really did a good job scum hunting. Pat ourselves on the back.
#441
whiteflame
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@Lunatic
I still think the wagon on JoeBob is coming from a place of extremely limited information, particularly with regards to his behavior. I honestly don't care if you sus me for providing a large explanation for why I don't agree with the decisions of you and others to sus him to the point of wanting him lynched rather than pursuing any kind of claim out of him first. If it draws more attention to me to say it, so be it. Doesn't mean I'm going to sheep your argument or anyone else's, especially not after having spent an entire game in chat with JoeBob as his scum partner.
#442
whiteflame
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@AustinL0926
How Soldier has appeared in previous games doesn't necessarily dictate how it will appear in this game, but if I remember correctly, the role you're thinking about is Survivor.
#443
Barney
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@JoeBob
Full claim please.

VTL JoeBob
#444
Lunatic
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Joebob, earth and whiteflame (I know whiteflame isn’t in the wagon yet but it’s clear his intention is to steer away from the joebob wagon which means ultimately he intends the other wagon to go through given the expiring time limit)I think are the most manufactured votes in the wagon so far. I’m giving supa a pass only because he still seems to scum read joebob and isn’t giving him a complete pass on behavior.
#445
whiteflame
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@Lunatic
If you want to pursue information from JoeBob, pursue it. I'll even join you in that pursuit, and depending on his claim, I might even join you in a lynch. I'm not dismissing him entirely - I even gave specific aspects of his play that do stand out - but that doesn't mean I'm going to automatically treat him as the preferable lynch target. I also don't agree that lynching GP is effectively information null.
#446
whiteflame
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Since now other people seem to be on-board with getting info, I'm fine with that. Let's do it.

VTL JoeBob

Let's get a claim.
#447
Lunatic
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@Barney
@whiteflame
Thankyou. I think joebobs behavior at minimum is deserving of a claim at this point. Other wise this day phase ends with untied loose ends.
#448
Lunatic
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@JoeBob
#449
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@Lunatic
That's fine by me. I recognize that I'm biased by my experience with him in the previous game, and we'd be doing this at the start of the next DP regardless, so might as well get it out of the way now.

#450
WyIted
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@JoeBob
Why don't you go ahead and claim so we can move past this distraction please. Character and role you don't have room to claim less