Invincible Mafia Day Phase 1

Author: Lunatic

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AustinL0926
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@Savant

I said behavioral reads are useless (or close to useless) if scum do what they would do as town. I buy that catching people in a lie is the point of mafia, but let's be honest and admit that special roles change the whole dynamic. Concrete evidence will always be a better way of catching liars than vibes alone. In Town of Salem, most lynching is done based on actual evidence since people have special abilities and the game is text-based, making it hard to catch liars (humans are bad lie detectors anyway). Forum mafia is closer to TOS than it is to traditional mafia. I go off behavioral reads when there's nothing else, but it will almost always be less effective than actual evidence.
The whole point is that scum can't imitate town. They have the burden of knowing they have no way to genuinely scumhunt, the burden of knowing that every vote of theirs is pushing for a mislynch, and the burden of trying to misdirect town while also appearing town.

There's a type of forum mafia called "mountainous" which is essentially a themeless, roleless game. Town wins about 30-40% of the time based on both expectationss and theoretical results. https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mountainous

So no, behavioral reads are never useless. In fact, they should take priority over anything else, especially in a game by a mod who has admitted in the past that he gives scum ways to counter and misdirect all of town's PRs, and who has a history of making setups with a non-obvious themesplit and strong fakeclaims.

And let's be honest, of the players that have given no information, your behavior makes you the most suspicious. So going after you is based on a behavioral read. I'm almost certain it's you or Pie, so we'll get at least one scum.
Please clarify your behavioral reads. And what do you mean by "I'm almost certain it's you or Pie, so we'll get at least one scum?"

It's also odd you would accuse me since I followed you into voting Pie given how certain you were, until he claimed the main character with no counterclaims.
I don't find you voting for Pie scummy, I find the fact that you did it with very little reasoning other than just following the crowd suspicious. We're well past the point of voting people randomly. You've given thorough explanations for almost all your other actions in this game, so why bandwagoning Pie?

Scum cannot afford to sacrifice for their own in 7v2, so if you are town and our certain that Pie is scum, you would have a great reason to believe that I am town. Even if I rely 100% on behavioral reads, your actions don't make sense.
Pie was never in danger of being lynched, period. In fact, distancing (scum voting each other without intent to elim) is a pretty common tell.

Given that you've accused everyone except Barney, and he's avoided voting for you, I highly suspect the two of you.
I've in fact accused two, maybe three, people at most. I townread him because his utter righteous indignation and his lack of hesitance to antagonize several active players is at odds from how he played in the last game. And by this logic of "players not voting each other must be scum", you can make arbitrary associations between anyone in the game.
Savant
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@JoeBob
Has Vader full claimed? If so I didn't see it.
AustinL0926
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Right now Barney and Austin are both on the chopping block. We know zero about their roles, and their behavior has been generally suspect, for whatever that's worth. Now Barney comes up with a convenient excuse to get everyone to unvote when Austin has 3 votes against him. Seems like they could both be scum but trying not to seem like they're defending each other.
This is just poor logic in general. Up until the lynch, votes are nothing than a fancy way of saying "I suspect this player." To seriously think that Barney's suggestion of avoiding a lynch until Joebob, the town-confirmed player, decides on one, is somehow a roundabout way of preventing any lynch from occurring at all, makes no sense.
AustinL0926
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@JoeBob
Well let’s see. Barney is more aggressive then when he is scum, makes me think he is town. Whiteflame is playing the same way he did last game, when he was town. Those two are the only others than haven’t full claimed. Which leaves you.
How would you compare my play this game to my last game? This is a genuine question, not rhetorical.
Savant
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@AustinL0926
I'm saying that you are certain it is Pie. So if you are town he is probably scum and vice versa. I'm also saying that if you are certain Pie is scum, me voting for Pie should clear me, in your eyes.

I believe I also gave my reasoning when I voted for Pie. Either we'd out him as scum or he would be town, making you likely scum.
JoeBob
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@Savant
I don’t think so now that I think about it
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@AustinL0926
 Up until the lynch, votes are nothing than a fancy way of saying "I suspect this player."

To seriously think that Barney's suggestion of avoiding a lynch until Joebob, the town-confirmed player, decides on one, is somehow a roundabout way of preventing any lynch from occurring at all, makes no sense.
Then why suggest people unvote at all? It's not necessary if all he wants is JoeBob's opinion. It could just be to "clear the field" (not sure why that is necessary?) but in combination with the other reasons Barney is seen as suspicious (and how you rallied people against Pie when Barney was suspected), telling everyone to unvote when there are 3 votes against you looks a bit suspicious.
JoeBob
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I’m going to reread this day.
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@Barney
Your role thing is wrong. Whiteflame said he was a protagonist. Weird that whiteflame didn’t catch on though, considering he pays attention to detail. I’m going to continue reading.

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@Savant
Clearing the field minimizes pressure from players who might be scum, and makes whatever lynch have been initiated by a confirmed townie.

Whereas any wagon not formed by a confirmed townie, is more likely to be lead by scum.

Scum have the job of getting townies to lynch the wrong people. I’ve proposed a way which decreases the odds of them succeeding in that.
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@JoeBob
I’m not a computer. I record things imperfectly. But thank you for the correction.
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Lunatic said he left a grey area for characters that could be either pro or ant. Vader posted that list of people who are either side. I haven’t watched the show so I can’t confirm any, but there were two who could be considered either or. Amber Bennett and Omni-Man. Why would Lunatic include this detail unless there isn’t one of those grey area characters. My bet is one of us has one of those characters.
ILikePie5
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@AustinL0926
Good job completely dodging my point regarding the speed of the wagon. I didn't cherry-pick data, not sure why you keep pushing on that - finding evidence for a pattern is hardly cherry-picking. My townread on Barney was pretty weak, I even mentioned that "I townread him slightly". Failing to read the OP is a towntell but lurking for almost 24 hours was far scummier.
There’s only 3 people including me. The other two were on my wagon. Your wagon is not that big either. You found data to support your claim but disregarded other, contradictory data, which I pointed out. That’s by definition cherry picking. You did the same thing with Supa last game. As for Barney, now you scumread him for the reason I was pushing him in the first place, yet you still scumread me? That makes zero sense.

I find his behavior anti-town, but he's not my top scumread at the moment. I also think Doctor is a pretty easy fakeclaim considering few characters in the show that I know of have healing powers.
His character is a main character. So you have to think he’s faking that too. It looks like everyone is faking what they’re saying according to you.

I don't claim because scum is pressuring me, I claim because town is pressuring me. If Joebob, Barney, Vader, GP, and maybe whiteflame gives convincing reasons, then I will claim.
I’m not scum, Korea is likely not scum. So Savant is the only person who could be scum. You forget that my wagon had 4 people in a span of like 10 minutes. Your wagon is nothing. Furthermore, your statement here makes no sense. You said you don’t claim if scum is pressuring you, but then refer to Barney as town, who you scumread. Yet you state that they have to convince you and then you’re going to claim? Why the double standard between yourself and me?

You need to full claim now. You are purposely delaying.
ILikePie5
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@JoeBob
Well let’s see. Barney is more aggressive then when he is scum, makes me think he is town. Whiteflame is playing the same way he did last game, when he was town. Those two are the only others than haven’t full claimed. Which leaves you.
Notice how he still doesn’t claim. Only scum have a hard time this game with claiming characters.
ILikePie5
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@Savant
Has Vader full claimed? If so I didn't see it.
He has not
ILikePie5
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@AustinL0926
@JoeBob
How would you compare my play this game to my last game? This is a genuine question, not rhetorical.
Just as I predicted. You as confirmed townie gave a reason with any malintent, and he dodges claiming again. Please put him at 4 and make him full claim. He’s not going to claim otherwise.
ILikePie5
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@Savant
I'm saying that you are certain it is Pie. So if you are town he is probably scum and vice versa. I'm also saying that if you are certain Pie is scum, me voting for Pie should clear me, in your eyes.
Your original premise is wrong. Theoretically we both could be town or we both could be scum as well. Former is called tunneling, latter is called bussing.


JoeBob
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@ILikePie5
@AustinL0926
Thing is, we have so many people that have claimed, do we need one more? First it was you, then barney, now Austin. 
ILikePie5
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@JoeBob
Thing is, we have so many people that have claimed, do we need one more? First it was you, then barney, now Austin. 
Barney hasn’t full claimed. I want to lynch Austin because of his opportunistic behavior I have highlighted. If he has role that makes me question my scumread of him, then so be it. But can you please pressure him with the fourth vote. He had no hesitation to do it to me, but now goes back and cries foul
AustinL0926
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There’s only 3 people including me. The other two were on my wagon. Your wagon is not that big either. You found data to support your claim but disregarded other, contradictory data, which I pointed out. That’s by definition cherry picking. You did the same thing with Supa last game. As for Barney, now you scumread him for the reason I was pushing him in the first place, yet you still scumread me? That makes zero sense.
There's a big difference between lurking in the beginning of the day and lurking after 4 people are voting you. I also found that wagon relatively unprovoked. And searching for patterns in data, by definition, requires finding data to support a claim, so I'm not sure what you're getting at.

His character is a main character. So you have to think he’s faking that too. It looks like everyone is faking what they’re saying according to you.
I find him suspicious behaviorally, while mechanically speaking, he's a null. Doctor could be a fakeclaim, or it might not. He's rolled doctor 2 times in the past few games though I think, so it would be a fakeclaim that he would be likely to try.


AustinL0926
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And again, I'm not claiming unless I have a good reason to.
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@ILikePie5
Austin just full claim please.

AustinL0926
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I’m not scum, Korea is likely not scum. So Savant is the only person who could be scum. You forget that my wagon had 4 people in a span of like 10 minutes. Your wagon is nothing. Furthermore, your statement here makes no sense. You said you don’t claim if scum is pressuring you, but then refer to Barney as town, who you scumread. Yet you state that they have to convince you and then you’re going to claim? Why the double standard between yourself and me?
The wagon on me had 3 people in 6 minutes, so around 1.25 times the rate of votes. That's hardly "nothing." Also, I townread Barney. I've said it multiple times. His response to his wagon is too maniacal to be scum. Purposefully ignoring that to twist my words is scummy af.

And yes, it's a double standard, because I know that I'm town and I think that you aren't.

AustinL0926
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@JoeBob
Reason pls.
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@AustinL0926
cuz I don’t wanna vote you and risk lynching a town pls
just claim so I don’t have to vote you and stop reading, cuz I’m on page 10 of 15
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Austin is being ultra defensive, more than I seen him as of late when challenged. I also agree with Pie that there seems to be a double standard. The same thing happened with Pie but Pie made a claim right away
JoeBob
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Townread:
GP-from the beginning he made a claim that can be tested using anyone of us.
Savant-saying he can also be confirmed tonight.


Posting this rn in case anything happens, I’m on page 10 of 15, once I’m done I’ll post rest of people.
AustinL0926
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@JoeBob
I have a higher opinion of your mafia skills than this. Give me a reason and I'll give you a claim. (I suppose threatening to lynch me is a reason, but not a great one.)
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@AustinL0926
1. From what I read, you were on both trains of pie and Barney, which both happend out of nowhere. Almost as if trying to see who has the more important role to NK.
2. You are defensive about revealing your role, makes me think you haven’t watched the show, and your partner or you had to think of one on the spot.
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@Vader
Yes, because I was scum in the previous game, which I why I didn't get defensive... Self-righteousness is an inherent requirement for being defensive.