ERB Mafia DP2

Author: Casey_Risk

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@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
He said he was blocked. I suspect he got a message saying he was jailed but didn't want to give too much away.
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@AustinL0926
Now that I've revealed myself, it would help if you said the message you got.
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I am going to give a cumulation of my reads and summarize what I am thinking

First off my strongest town read is Luna.
First thing is first, I think it safe to assume that scum knew that Pie's role was a Even Night role. I can't think of any reason for them to target Pie other than getting some info that Pie's role exists. The only way Luna could have known a 3p in the game if he asked the question. I don't think Luna as scum would do this and the best bet for him would probably to try and to find a town role that is in the game to fake claim and combine. It just makes no sense for them to use their 1 extra role asking to ask if there's a 3p role. If he did, well then wow GG, we are fucked

My second strongest town read is Wylted
Wylted usually likes to communicate the most in the forums in the DP and is arguably one of the strongest DP players that play on the site. He does it as town and does it at scum. Wylted basically loses a huge tool he has at his disposal. I know that Pie did something similiar, but Pie relies on his NP actions as scum and WIFOM rather than convincing town. That's wylted's strongsuit and I don't think he'd give it up. Not to mention he hasn't acted out of the ordinary besides taking a DART break, but he does that. His gamestyle and gameplay and thoughts allign with his town play

My third strongest town read is Greyparrot
While I will say that GP isn't as town as in normal games just due to the nature of his role, but when you look at his meta, playstyle, and beliefs as town, he is following what he normally does. Also in a game where scum aren't given fake claims (I'm assuming they aren't from the OP's and Casey's past game, quote if wrong), it seems like such a weird and vague claim. Granted this gives him some leverage as scum because there is no reason for him to be targetted for behavior, but I also think he would've claimed something a lot better.

So, with that in mind I am going to go to my biggest scum reads

Banana - scum = not aligned with town. No matter what way you look at it. Even if they are a 3P, they don't align with towns goal so they are scum by default. They MAY NOT be mafia

My biggest scum read in Whiteflame
Besides POE, and my behavior analysis on him that I stated with him, I am also thinking about the NK and what WF would do as scum. I could definetly see WF as scum being paranoid about Earth asking for conditions on Pie's PGO and asking if there are any roles that are a x Night in the game. I could definetly also see Whiteflame silencing Wylted to draw out some of his wild convincing. I've played a few games with WF, but killing Pie because of his town read and how he'd have to be alive to NP3 if they didn't kill him. Whiteflame is a great player but I've seen him as scum try to play cautiously versus taking risks and letting it out. I remember in TUF Mafia that when me and him were scum, it took a good amount of convincing from him to try and make a gambit in NP3.

If Banana DOES flip 3p, my second scum read would be Savant
I really just get a weird vibe from Savant. I do want to see what Austin has to say about his "Jailkeep" but if his action got prevented, it does give credit but behavioral his reads just feel very stiff. I asked him for more elaboration on his reads versus the short sentences and he kinda just doubled down on the shortness. When we put pressure on him for some of his DP1 behaviorals, he pointed out a key thing saying, so you wanna scum read me in the last game for one behavior but scum read me for doing the opposite. That would actually indicate he is scum. 

Austin is in my POE but for now I'm null. I don't like how quickly he was to write off Savant as town despite believing Banana is a 3P.
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@Vader
Pending Austin, I definitely see WF/Savant as a scum team.
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@Greyparrot
@Vader
Banana - Even if they are a 3P, they don't align with towns goal so they are scum by default
We want third parties on the town's side, driving them away is antitown regardless of your affiliation. Surprised grey overlooked this when he just accused me and wf of wanting to lynch third party.

At this point, neither Greyparrot nor Vader is making sense. Why is Vader overlooking Grey's odd behavior? Why is Grey overlooking Vader's antitown behavior? Either they both have tunnel vision, or there's a scum there. I could honestly vote for either of them at this point, but I'd like a full claim from Vader if he hasn't given one already.
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@Vader
Full claim plz

VTL Vader
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
See above.
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@Vader
When we put pressure on him for some of his DP1 behaviorals, he pointed out a key thing saying, so you wanna scum read me in the last game for one behavior but scum read me for doing the opposite. That would actually indicate he is scum. 
Explain
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@Vader
Also I want to point out as well. Scum are not given fake claims. Pie's post in DP1 suggested that mafia are only given 2 questions to ask if a role and a claim are in the game... 

Why wouldn't the same logic apply for a 3P, and better yet, why would a 3P need a fake claim???
Not really sure what you mean by this - you're implying that banana is lying about being a 3P, yet if so, why would she assert the presence of a fakeclaim when it doesn't make her claim more believable?
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@Vader
Looking at whiteflame's behavior analysis from last game to this game. It definetly feels like Whiteflame is not focusing as much on reads and behavior analytics as much and instead is relying on a theme split that he admitted himself he is relatively not as well informed on. I've played a few games with him as scum and seen him play as scum and I think he engages a lot more behaviorally with town and does a lot more behavior analysis. He also comes off strong in DP1s when he's town compared to when he is scum, and I think he was relatively weak coming into this DP and really didn't do much. While I don't want to dock off points for being busy and having a lot of your plate, I think that some of his analysis is just a lot more subpar and "coasting" through the DP rather than giving thoughtful insight. Even when the pace is slow WF usually engages a bit harder in the DP to get conversations going.
I agree with this fwiw. It's part of the reason why I targeted him last night (although again, I am not going to specifically claim what my role is)

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@Vader
I just find it a bit weird how he was set and stone on believing that they were a 3p rather than explore the options. 

I also don't love wylted in the POE he gave too.
I feel like you're misrepresenting my position here. My current opinion is that Banana is a 3P. What part of my posting made it look like that was set in stone? There was zero implication of that whatsoever. Me dropping in and giving my thoughts doesn't mean that I'm never changing them when I get back.

I don't see a strong reason to take Wylted out of the POE - I'm assuming silencer is always a scum role, but I've seen people self-target with it before - that aside, he was slightly towny during DP1, but not to the extent that I'd townlock him.
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@Lunatic
Did you ask Casey if scum and 3P would investigate as different affiliations?
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I think Savant's claim is probably real (i.e. he was responsible for my action failing). Whether he's jailkeeper or roleblocker, and town or scum, is another story. I don't particularly understand why he targeted me - jailkeeper is almost always used offensively (on strong scumreads) or defensively (on strong townreads). Doesn't really make much sense to target someone in the middle, because even if it stops a kill, you don't know whether they were saved or blocked.

I'm not explicitly scumreading him for it since it's more a question of "would town play optimally" (they often don't), but it doesn't shift my perception of his alignment too much.
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Lunatic - Town. Role seems confirmed. However, we know that scum has some information due to the Pie kill, so it's possible he could get this info as scum. Yet his affiliation seems the most certain right now.
iamanabanana - Probably third party. Claim was early, and he phrasing of Luna's role supports this. However, it's possible they have a scum partner who advised this claim after seeing Luna's role.
whiteflame - Leans town. He's narrowing down PoE way more than a scum player needs to, and while he could just be intentionally acting townie like he usually does as scum, I think there's other tacks he could have taken if he wasn't sure who was going to be a target.
WyIted - Null. Idk why scum would silence themselves, but it's a WIFOM play and likely prevents a lynch at least for one day. If he's town, maybe whiteflame silenced him? Idk, that was the only person he accused.
Austin - Null. With PoE narrowed down, he's in the pool of possible scum, but his response to me jailing him seems townie.
Greyparrot - Possible scum due to process of elimination. Hasn't contributed as much as he could have.
Vader - Likely scum due to process of elimination. He posted a lot at the start of the day phase, which struck me as an attempt to take control of the conversation in a way he wasn't doing early on in the first day phase. Just comes across a bit strategic.
Oh this is a pretty bad post.

POE relies on having townreads, and shifting nullreads to scumreads as a result. Savant's main reason for scumreading GP and Vader comes down to POE, which doesn't make sense when he has two nullreads and a leantown.

I think the level of confidence in his POE is disproportionate to the level of confidence in his townreads.

That aside, the tertiary reasons for scumreading Vader is pretty bad. Being proactive early is a fundamentally towny trait.

Combined with his weird JK play earlier, I'm comfortable to

VTL Savant


AustinL0926
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Vader's handling of the 3P claim is very behaviorally towny imo, doesn't read as informed of banana's alignment in any way.
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@whiteflame
Alright, so more of a test using the RB than the protection of the JK. I get that. Also, crazy odds that you’d be the town RB two games in a row. I’d be sussing that if not for the Justice result.
WF? Gambler's fallacy..? Surely you know better...?
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I kinda think it's just WF/Savant lol.


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This is assuming that 3P is a different affiliation from scum. If not, I probably have to throw my reads out and start over, but I'll wait for Luna on that.
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We want third parties on the town's side, driving them away is antitown regardless of your affiliation. Surprised grey overlooked this when he just accused me and wf of wanting to lynch third party.

At this point, neither Greyparrot nor Vader is making sense. Why is Vader overlooking Grey's odd behavior? Why is Grey overlooking Vader's antitown behavior? Either they both have tunnel vision, or there's a scum there. I could honestly vote for either of them at this point, but I'd like a full claim from Vader if he hasn't given one already.
Scummy post.

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@Greyparrot
@Vader
@AustinL0926
You were my second-to-top townread yesterday. Hence why I jailed you. I would have jailed Pie, but he claimed Paranoid Gun Owner.

POE relies on having townreads, and shifting nullreads to scumreads as a result. Savant's main reason for scumreading GP and Vader comes down to POE, which doesn't make sense when he has two nullreads and a leantown.
I gave reasons for scum reads beyond POE. Grey not contributing and Vader's behavior this day phase. Honestly I've been waffling on Vader and Grey since my post, and I'm willing to go after WF since we need to lynch someone. Only people I'm sure about are me and Luna.

VTL Whiteflame
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@AustinL0926
If you think it's me and WF, lynch WF. Then lynch me tomorrow if you want, but I'm not about to let town use a protective role.
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Does anyone else want to claim a protective role? And if no one does, what are the odds that there would be no protective role at all?
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@AustinL0926
Scummy post.
??? How
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@AustinL0926
WF? Gambler's fallacy..? Surely you know better...?
I thought WF was implying that having RB role last game would increase the odds I fake claim it this game. It doesn't make much sense, but I think it might be bad wording as opposed to being scummy.
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@AustinL0926
yep wf/savant...

VTL SAVANT
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@Savant
I don’t love how Vader has been viewing and talking about Banana, mainly because I just don’t see a world in which she could be faking this as scum, but I don’t agree that he hasn’t adequately considered GP. He’s given clear thoughts on what makes him townread GP. As for GP’s perspective, he was mischaractetizing our positions on Banana, but I have trouble scumreading someone who is being that obviously wrong without pushing a vote on that basis.

Honestly I've been waffling on Vader and Grey since my post, and I'm willing to go after WF since we need to lynch someone. Only people I'm sure about are me and Luna.

VTL Whiteflame
I don’t love this reasoning for defaulting to me because other people are scumreading me, but I guess if you’re just equally unsure and lynching in PoE, it makes some sense.
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@AustinL0926
WF? Gambler's fallacy..? Surely you know better...?
Considering I’m townreading him, I do. It clearly wasn’t enough by itself to push me in that direction.
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@Greyparrot
If you think it's me or WF, why risk losing the only town protective? I already said I'm wiling to lynch whiteflame. You can lynch me tomorrow.
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@AustinL0926
Oh this is a pretty bad post.

POE relies on having townreads, and shifting nullreads to scumreads as a result. Savant's main reason for scumreading GP and Vader comes down to POE, which doesn't make sense when he has two nullreads and a leantown. 

I think the level of confidence in his POE is disproportionate to the level of confidence in his townreads.

That aside, the tertiary reasons for scumreading Vader is pretty bad. Being proactive early is a fundamentally towny trait.

Combined with his weird JK play earlier, I'm comfortable to 

VTL Savant
The more I keep reading his past posts and the one you’re addressing here, the more uncertain I am. Pretty much all of my read relies on the Justice result, but you’re right that his reads don’t make a lot of sense, nor his target prioritizing for his role. I also just don’t get his sudden shift to me at all, it seems very opportunistic.

I don’t love him being the lynch, but I can’t square his behavior with what I previously thought.

VTL Savant
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@Savant
Tagging you on this.