The Russian Mafia DP2

Author: Casey_Risk

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ADreamOfLiberty
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@That2User
idk why people have blind faith in luna being the dreamer, why is it so unlikely this is a mafia fakeclaim?
I want this answer too. Please just think a step ahead. What happens on D3 when a townie was lynched from the list? What about D4? D5 and you're out of maneuvering room. If you trust the list at that point and its wrong town loses.

Maybe a hybrid strategy is in order, but there is no logic in lynching the whole list if it keeps being a mislynch every time.
ILikePie5
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@ADreamOfLiberty
I can ask.

Are you saying that town never has lethal night actions so there would be nothing to be protected from?

Yea OK, I get that; but I can't tell the difference between protecting scum who can't be harmed and protecting a townie so how does that help?

It does say "night actions" so I'm sure it wouldn't protect from a lynching (if that's even a thing in this game).
I’m still confused. Let’s say you build a Village around Person A who is scum. Person A shoots Person B who is town. What happens?
Vader
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Honestly I don't want to press to hard on this read but I kind of have an FoS on Mharman but it's smaller cuz he replaced in. Seems to be a bit less engaged with town than usual and a bit more fluff than I'm used to with him but I also think it's cuz he just came in
Vader
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@That2User
I thought banana was going to be a role cop but they ended up being an executioner. The way they described their character and they said how "useful" it could be made me really think they were role cop

Not really a lot to explain
ILikePie5
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Maybe a hybrid strategy is in order, but there is no logic in lynching the whole list if it keeps being a mislynch every time.
I never said we just lynch the list. I said we need to identify the townies. Banana is town. That leaves you, Luna, and That2. That means we have a 33% chance of hitting scum today and 50% tomorrow. 

If you answer my question, I may move you to Town, in which case it’s a 50/50 shot today between Luna and That2. And in that scenario, I always choose to lynch That2, which is why her behavior is all gung ho about lynching Luna right now.
ADreamOfLiberty
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@ILikePie5
Person B lives, I die, I assume at the start of the next day thread it will say "ADOL died in the night when his village was exposed" or something like that. I would be dead so there is no information I could give even if it was given to me.
Mharman
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@Vader
You’ll get more from me later.
ILikePie5
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Person B lives, I die, I assume at the start of the next day thread it will say "ADOL died in the night when his village was exposed" or something like that. I would be dead so there is no information I could give even if it was given to me.
Great, thank you. You’re town. And this also means Vader didn’t carry out the NK last night which is good
That2User
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@ILikePie5

No, it’s better to find the townies in the 3 people identified and lynch the scum.
Why? This assumes Luna is town/dreamer.
No it doesn’t. We can independently determine our reads and move forward from there. 
Finding the town within the 3 assumes the last one is scum, you need to believe in luna being the dreamer to conclude we're not all town
That2User
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nvm i see your post 155 now
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@ILikePie5
we in rolemadness, it is reasonable to believe mafia can stop town prs. in my last mafia game in mafiascum mafia had an ascetic + alien.
Why through a roleblocker specifically though?
How else does mafia stop prs outside of roleblocking? 
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@Cerulean
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I am not very keen on That2. The whole Luna suggestion just kinda reeks of scumminess 
ILikePie5
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@Vader
I am not very keen on That2. The whole Luna suggestion just kinda reeks of scumminess 
I agree. I’m reasonably sure she’s scum. Behaviorally and from a role perspective as well. Still very risky though because if she’s Town, we go straight to MYLO tomorrow, which means my role essentially becomes useless
That2User
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i am town, luna is either mafia or gives us mafia, why tf is this play evil
That2User
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 if luna is the dreamer then it indirectly implicates me, i want luna alive if i am mafia, i push banana/liberty 
ILikePie5
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@That2User
if luna is the dreamer then it indirectly implicates me, i want luna alive if i am mafia, i push banana/liberty 
If you’re scum, you want 3 mislynches in a row. Doesn’t matter where they come from lol
ADreamOfLiberty
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@ILikePie5
Banana is town.
Don't try to frighten us with your sorcerer's ways lord pie. (You can't possibly know that unless you're scum)


That leaves you, Luna, and That2. That means we have a 33% chance of hitting scum today and 50% tomorrow. 
So it sounds like you're asserting that the list creates a scenario where everyone on the list and the list-maker have the same probability of being scum.

For those of us who can't mystically rule out Banana that would be:
Lunatic: 25%
Banana: 25%
ADOL: 25%
That2: 25%

You think its:
Lunatic: 33%
Banana: 0%
ADOL: 33%
That2: 33%

or maybe:

Lunatic: 20%
Banana: 0%
ADOL: 40%
That2: 40%


but it's not that simple. If lunatic is scum then the chances are that the list is all town or at best one scum. That means the progression of probability is not symmetric. You know more if you start with Luna because testing Luna first tells you something about the probabilities of the list as a whole. Same information, but faster; and that matters because of night kills.

However, if lunatic is scum town still has a decent chance of winning if we face Luna on DP3 instead of this round (DP2). So how about we lynch one person from the list, and then if that person is innocent go for Luna? I don't think that's mathematically optimal, but it's better than misslynching twice without learning anything.
ILikePie5
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Don't try to frighten us with your sorcerer's ways lord pie. (You can't possibly know that unless you're scum)
Behaviorally she’s town.


So it sounds like you're asserting that the list creates a scenario where everyone on the list and the list-maker have the same probability of being scum.
Yes? Why wouldn’t it be that way

For those of us who can't mystically rule out Banana that would be:
Lunatic: 25%
Banana: 25%
ADOL: 25%
That2: 25%

You think its:
Lunatic: 33%
Banana: 0%
ADOL: 33%
That2: 33%
Yes

or maybe:

Lunatic: 20%
Banana: 0%
ADOL: 40%
That2: 40%

No

but it's not that simple. If lunatic is scum then the chances are that the list is all town or at best one scum. That means the progression of probability is not symmetric. You know more if you start with Luna because testing Luna first tells you something about the probabilities of the list as a whole. Same information, but faster; and that matters because of night kills.
You’re looking at it purely from a numbers perspective. Yes Luna can be scum. But behaviorally, That2 is far more scummier. And regardless, we have a 100% shot at catching scum tomorrow. This entire exercise I’m doing right now, you’re going to have to do tomorrow anyways if you lynch Luna today.

However, if lunatic is scum town still has a decent chance of winning if we face Luna on DP3 instead of this round (DP2). So how about we lynch one person from the list, and then if that person is innocent go for Luna? I don't think that's mathematically optimal, but it's better than misslynching twice without learning anything.
That’s I wanna lynch That2. And if she’s town and Luna is alive, we lynch Luna tomorrow. 
ADreamOfLiberty
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@ILikePie5
That’s I wanna lynch That2. And if she’s town and Luna is alive, we lynch Luna tomorrow. 
Then we have a plan. I'll love it when it comes together :)

ADreamOfLiberty
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VTL That2User
Lunatic
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I would technically be a hypocrite if I said I didn’t see the logic in what ADOL and that2 are saying about confirming my results being useful. I am down to be lynched to prove my results, if and only if I am absolutely lynched today to do this. We already have one mislynch in earth, we still technically do not know if if there is two scum or three (keep in mind I frequently have balanced three scum into ten player games, the last two in which town won, its actually probable to balance three scum here), plus pie claims to need to be lynched before mylo, and we still have the potential to hit town within my results if we happen to choose wrong. Testing my role today might literally be the only day we can even afford it, and if we do it I’d be trusting the sh1t out of you fvckers to get it right after I die.

So if I’m not lynched today I will fight it going forward, but if that’s what needs to happen to get the scum in my results I am willing to be the days sacrifice to accomplish that.

I will say that it seems extremely interesting that that2 is going all out on this move and doesn’t even seem to be considering the options of her other dreamer result. If she is scum it feels like she is trying desperately to secure one mislynch before death, which if you are scum and caught, it’s honestly the play. on the other hand if you were to assume I was scum here you have to ask how this play helps me here, because as scum I’d have to have considered I’d likely to be lynched in order to test my results so suicide was basically a 50/50 chance for me if this was a gambit. Not that I wouldn’t take risks as scum, but that would be hypocritical of me after I literally just gave bullish sh1t in the last game about taking risks like that for literally no reward.

Lastly I claimed dreamer and my results before the following people even posted: cerulean, mharman, ADOL, banana. Not to mention anyone who had posted already but hadn’t claimed a visit target could have claimed a visit on me any time, including pie, and Whiteflame. So the logic that I am scum here is already banking on me taking the risk of claiming dreamer which is a 50% suicide mission in and of itself and then to top that off I claimed results when literally only one person had made any mention of a visit, meaning if I was scum I was taking the biggest gamble in history that I wasn’t visited np1 by literally anyone. There’s taking risks, and there’s being stupid, and that just suggests the latter every time.

If that’s where people absolutely wanna go though I get it, but you better get the scum in my results tomorrow, because further mislynches will be costly as hell.
ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
Lastly I claimed dreamer and my results before the following people even posted: cerulean, mharman, ADOL, banana. Not to mention anyone who had posted already but hadn’t claimed a visit target could have claimed a visit on me any time, including pie, and Whiteflame. So the logic that I am scum here is already banking on me taking the risk of claiming dreamer which is a 50% suicide mission in and of itself and then to top that off I claimed results when literally only one person had made any mention of a visit, meaning if I was scum I was taking the biggest gamble in history that I wasn’t visited np1 by literally anyone. There’s taking risks, and there’s being stupid, and that just suggests the latter every time.
Forgot about this. Ya I think you’re town too, which leaves That2
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@That2User
if Luna is town, if Luna is scum then it is world changing, we do not know Luna's alignment until we eliminate him
You haven’t made a single argument for why you believe Luna is scum, so I don’t get your point here. Luna could be scum. He could be pulling a gambit, absolutely. Why should I believe that’s likely?
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@Cerulean
I’d love to get some of your input today as well about the goings on of the game
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@ADreamOfLiberty
So you have to agree that town can't just methodically go through the list and keep hoping that Lunatic was town right? Like imagine we lynch User or I am lynched, turns out the person was town.

Are you just going to lynch someone else on the list or are you going to revisit Lunatic's trustworthiness? If it's the later wouldn't it be better to get it out of the way now when fewer night kills have occurred?
I’m not suggesting random lynches. I’m suggesting we go back to the basic task of reducing PoE based on the claims and information we have. I still don’t see how we benefit from just lynching Luna unless we have a good reason to scumread him or at least place him solidly in PoE. Getting “it out of the way now” doesn’t yield much of a benefit for town from where I’m sitting, even if it’s more beneficial to do it now than later.
Casey_Risk
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@ADreamOfLiberty
VTL That2User
I have counted your vote, but for future reference, please place all votes in bold text to ensure that they are counted.

Votes:

Lunatic (1/5): That2
That2 (1/5): ADOL
Mharman
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@That2User
Yeah I’m not going with your plan. Even if we lynch Lunatic and confirm his results, we still don’t know who is scum. At least with MU-style cop lynching it’s one result we’re verifying. We don’t have that luxury here.
Mharman
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There’s a chance That2 just stumbled into being right, but from her POV the plan makes no sense.
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Does anyone else have a reason to contest ADOL’s shield claim?