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@That2User
Why should we think you are town?
The Russian Mafia DP2
Posts
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Total:
269
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@iamanabanana
You need to used your execution today
I'm honestly pretty set on That2 tbh. I think the only thing that's holding me back is that if they setup is either a 7v2 vs a 6v3, if they are telling the truth realistically we are fucked in the 3v3 or MYLO in 4v2 which the 4v2 isn't the worse but it also renders Pie useless and would draw a lot more suspicion on him
Bout to hit the hay, i'll be around later.
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@Lunatic
I do find it convenient he seems to be willing to lynch me over anyone else in the results as well
It doesn't happen much, but That2User's argument changed my mind. More specifically it spurred me to game out the days and look at the probabilities. Like whiteflame said 2/9 is the lower end of the probability for hitting scum, but if you were confirmed town your list would beat that probability.
I think whiteflame implied that after a nightkill and a misslynch we would be at 5 town and therefore the odds would be 2/7 = 28% of rand hitting scum which isn't that much better than "33%" on your verified list.
However he failed to take into account that at that point we may know much more than that there is scum on the list, we may know you are scum and that the list is less likely to be scum than random.
when even statistically speaking I feel like it's less likely that I could be scum here based on several factors I've pointed out with my claim and the huge amount of stupid risk involved in claiming the way I did.
Well dismissing all the factors you can't quantify is the privilege of statisticians :)
No I understand that and I understand the odds aren't actually those even numbers after you modify it with fuzzy logic like that. I'm just saying That2User gave good game theory.
Speaking of motivations:
but without any sort of attempt at that, it kind of leaves me wondering if he is just scum and he is going for damage control.
I said something similar, but it doesn't really make sense does it?
Unless everyone on the list is scum (a 3 man team) they have a scapegoat to target on the list. If it's "get a free misslynch" why not attack a townie in the list? Surely that would be an easier sell for the reasons you've given to trust you.
Only after the scapegoat is misslynched would it make sense to try and target you. That might succeed, and I think we may very well see that play out if the first hanged person on the list is town. That would be 2 free kills for scum, each individually an easier sell than going straight for you.
Ignoring the "he knows I know he knows" loop, wishing the list to be proven one way or another as early as possible is a town motivation and it makes me think (a bit) that That2User might be town and the list might be a scum ploy.
I don't really have that much more to talk about beyond that, analyzing the minutia of others or trying to determine if a claim is legitimate has almost no information value IMO so the contingent dichotomies created by your list claim absolutely dominate my opinions.
The only productive thing to do is lynch somebody in this mess. Of the four of us, it seems the group suspects That2User the most so lets get on with it.
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@Casey_Risk
Time check + vote count?
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@ILikePie5
Votes:
That2 (2/5): ADOL, Banana
Lunatic (1/5): That2
Approximately 34 hours remain in the DP.
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@iamanabanana
Only real updated thoughts are that whiteflame seems to be buddying lunatic pretty hard, I don't know how to think about that.
I'll note that it's extremely unusual for Luna and I to be on the same page like this, and not at all similar to our behavior when we were a scum team in previous games. Also, I wouldn't call what I've been doing "buddying." I've agreed with a good deal of his logic, and he in turn has agreed with some of mine. I've argued that, if we're going to lynch him, we need a good reason to do it based on PoE and not just based on the hope that revealing he actually is the Dreamer will have some meaningful effect on PoE. I've given the numbers to support that view.
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@Lunatic
@Vader
@whiteflame
@That2User
@iamanabanana
My only concern with voting That2 right now is that if she flips town, we’ll be at MYLO, and I can’t be lynched. Do any of yall have thoughts on that?
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@iamanabanana
Can you ask if it will be revealed that you were the one who committed the execution?
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@ADreamOfLiberty
It doesn't happen much, but That2User's argument changed my mind. More specifically it spurred me to game out the days and look at the probabilities. Like whiteflame said 2/9 is the lower end of the probability for hitting scum, but if you were confirmed town your list would beat that probability.I think whiteflame implied that after a nightkill and a misslynch we would be at 5 town and therefore the odds would be 2/7 = 28% of rand hitting scum which isn't that much better than "33%" on your verified list.However he failed to take into account that at that point we may know much more than that there is scum on the list, we may know you are scum and that the list is less likely to be scum than random.
So... wait, the basis for lynching him is that, if he's scum, we might be able to intuit scum from his faked Dreamer result? Setting aside that any analysis of that kind is inherently WIFOM (since Luna could have included his scum partner in his results), it would still place the other scum as one of four remaining players. That's better odds than lynching entirely at random, particularly if we have a solid townread in that group, I just don't see it as a good basis for eliminating him.
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@ILikePie5
I reiterate the same point in 214
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@ILikePie5
My only concern with voting That2 right now is that if she flips town, we’ll be at MYLO, and I can’t be lynched. Do any of yall have thoughts on that?
It's a risk. There's always the possibility of picking someone else and saving her lynch for MYLO/LYLO where her role stops mattering or for before then if we eliminate another member of the scum team, I just don't know that we have a good alternative. I'm less convinced on Mharman, but I could at least see a basis for pushing him.
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@whiteflame
It's a risk. There's always the possibility of picking someone else and saving her lynch for MYLO/LYLO where her role stops mattering or for before then if we eliminate another member of the scum team, I just don't know that we have a good alternative. I'm less convinced on Mharman, but I could at least see a basis for pushing him.
That’s true. At that point it wouldn’t matter anyways. I’m comfortable getting a claim from Mharman
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@Mharman
VTL Mharman
Full claim please
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@Mharman
Lacking alternatives, I'll go with it.
VTL Mharman
Votes:
That2 (2/5): ADOL, Banana
Mharman (2/5): Pie, Whiteflame
Lunatic (1/5): That2
Did you know? During WWII, Soviet women comprised over half a million combat troops, including snipers, pilots, and tank drivers. The most successful female sniper, Lyudmila Pavlichenko, had 309 confirmed kills.
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@whiteflame
So... wait, the basis for lynching him is that
The basis for lynching him is that it would give us more concrete information faster and thereby advantage town since we would have that information earlier.
we might be able to intuit scum from his faked Dreamer result?
Either way we get concrete information. If he's scum not only do we take him out, we also have that additional indicator.
Setting aside that any analysis of that kind is inherently WIFOM (since Luna could have included his scum partner in his results)
While people are going around picking apart the difference between assassination and being lost based on a animated movie, strong evidence like that should be dismissed because its possible it was misdirection?
I don't think so.
Yes it's possible scum Luna put his partner in the list to engender trust, but it would have been a risky move. For the same reason that the list might advantage scum at all (higher chance of lynching in the list) it would endanger his partner.
I just don't see it as a good basis for eliminating him.
It's not any particular path, it's the sum of all the paths. We don't know if Luna is scum and that probability is multiplied by all further probabilities. A contingent uncertainty being resolved gives more information than dependent uncertainties.
It's really not that complicated.
i feel luna is the dreamer, luna needs to be the mafia watcher to see if anyone visited him in n1. luna feels town in play, especially in #203, why he scum reads me for being hyperfocused on him without reasoning. mechanically luna is the best elimination, we only know he is the dreamer if he flips.
ik i am town, if i die today everyone needs to go in with full faith luna is the dreamer, me being town ≠ luna is mafia
idefk where luna falls but i saw people wanting to kill luna if i am town, we either kill luna today or we never do it.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
ADOL, what I don't like about your argument is that it's divorced from the actual numbers involved, which necessarily would be impacted, especially if he flipped scum. Even I was wrong about what those probabilities would look like in that instance because I just assumed that scum would necessarily eliminate someone outside of the three he's claimed were in his dream, but if he's actually scum and gets lynched, then necessarily their target would be someone among those 3 (likely That2 if she's town, since scum stand to gain a lot from getting two NPs in a row). And that's a big problem because, yes, the numbers will go down, but our PoE wouldn't diminish at all. Scum could just eliminate a second target between you and Banana. Now town's down to 6 with 5 people implicated by their exclusion from the faked Dream. At that point, we'll have reduced PoE by exactly one since either you or Banana will be alive.
So, no, I don't get this point. If your point is that it would be beneficial for us if he flipped scum, then absolutely. That's a given. It would be beneficial if we lynched scum. But I haven't seen any argument from you or anyone else for why Luna seems scummy, only reasons why his flip would tell us something, and whether he's town or scum, I don't see how his flip substantially alters the likelihood that we hit scum next DP. Getting that information earlier doesn't shift those probabilities much at all.
this is a weird af position since i townread luna, banana, me, liberty
liberty's protective role is weird af with ceu's protective claim i struggle to fully believe in it but his analysis looks like a town mind
banana just feels town
i am town
idk what to do besides vote luna/liberty
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@That2User
Any particular reason you're excluding both me and Mharman from your analysis? I realize these aren't comprehensive reads, but you're down to two people you see as potential lynches, one of whom you're actively townreading (though you've made clear you want the information from his lynch). Seems like you're scumreading ADOL for having a weird protective role and I guess some potential of a CC with Cerulean's role, though it's unclear how you're perceiving Cerulean as well.
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@Casey_Risk
Can u ping Mharman on discord
Yall are that impatient? Lemme type up my reads.
Sorry for doing other things with my day I guess
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@Mharman
Bruh full claim first then post ur reads so we can talk about it
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@ILikePie5
No. The only reason yall have been sussing me is because I haven’t posted a full set of reads.