Now he’s refusing to give Whiteflame any reason for his thoughts on Banana and Moozer- which are questionable enough- their early DP2s,
Their early DP2s are null at best*
Call of Duty: Black Ops Mafia DP2
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@Moozer325
hey look, Moozer finally posted something original. Sure took him some time. I guess I’ll respond to this point of his
Earth: Slight town. He's still in my PoE but I liked some of his page 1 posts. He could have easily targeted me for a Lynch after Mhar said my assumption was slightly suspicious
Mharman: Slight Scum, same reason as Earth, plus he also assumed WyIted was the NK
How can you put “same reason as Earth” and then scumread me while townreading him?
As for the Wylted being the NK thing. I checked in, glanced at the OP and saw wylted died, and then checked the most recent posts in the thread. Lunatic had said something about Wylted being the NK, and I posted my thoughts on the NK in post 9. Then I saw your post, read the OP completely, and the rest is history. If you ask me it’s an easier mistake to make than just assuming Wylted used his role.
A question does need to be asked whether or not Moozer and Earth being scum are mutually exclusive. Last DP I had concluded such a thing based on Moozer sussing Bullsih, and one of my reads had to be wrong.
But here, Moozer doesn’t even seem to sus Earth all that much. He helped get his claim, and then instantly believes it. I’m gonna say, no, they are not.
Also Earth just townreads Moozer for reasons
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@ILikePie5
Vote count + time check?
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@Cerulean
I don't think Lunatic simply having a Neighborizer role is reason enough to call him Town without going back and being more thorough. Pockets can happen in neighborhoods. I have played multiple games and written (but never hosted, sadly) a setup with a Mafia aligned Neighborizer.
Thoughts on Lunatic’s behavior?
I'm more willing to believe that Moozer is in fact lynchproof, just because of how risky of a claim it is. As Mafia, you're essentially making yourself the "default" lynch of the Day and hoping that people can come to a conclusion so they don't resort to you. Moozer is not a person who has a strong thread presence, so in that world, he would have some reliance on his partner to make sure another lynch gets pushed through. All of *that* aside, I believe in his reaction to the WyIted kill, unless someone else wants to show me that Moozer is capable of that sort of... "Dumbtell" sounds mean, but something like that, as Mafia.
I don’t think he’s incapable of such a thing. I’m willing to give this particular thing a “null” but instantly concluding Wylted used his power is silly enough to mean someone faking it is quite possible. Moozer is far from one of the top players in this site, but he’s not THAT bad
Earths claim is solid kind of, but What are your thoughts on the game right now?
Read up.
Ugh I can’t believe I stayed up late for this. I feel like hammered shit.
Down to lynch either Earth or Moozer before the DP ends
I’m gonna go see what sleep I can salvage
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@Lunatic
Forgot to tag.
Good night to me, good morning to you
Good night to me, good morning to you
Alright, we have until 4pm my time today to accomplish a lynch and I might be asleep by then so I am going to post now. I do want to apologize that my activity hasn't been stellar this game, my sleep schedule is out of whack again, and also I don't really know how much I wanna invest in the theme in this game with out crazy a lot of these role justifications are, so my motivation to actually do theme research is out the window. I feel like pie is trying to say the theme doesn't matter and to focus on behavior with this game. That, or he actually thinks these justifications are good and I just live on another planet then him.. idk who knows. I'm sure he will justify these in the end game but they seem so wild to me.
I am gonna go through the list of my reads and tell you my thoughts on each person.
Earth- I am back and forth on him. His obliviousness to day phase one and the entire conversation about his own character, combined with his weird target with whiteflame, doesn't make a ton of sense. Also motion detector is just a very minor off powerful role. That said I did expect his character to be in the game as he is a prominent side character in the first mission. I did explicitly say in dp1 it would be weird for whiteflames character to exist, and NOT earths character. I feel foolish for town reading him for this alone, but I also don't want to be burned by earth's obliviousness here. Like if we mislynch him for horrible use of his role I feel like we didn't learn anything except "Oh earth did an earth thing, silly him" when town just got burned by that from him last game. So I kind of want to give him an earth pass, but at the same time, there is literally no justification provided. Pie at least kind of attempts to explain (if poorly) my justification. Bullish's was horrible, but wylted's actually kind of made some sense. Pie is so inconsistent with the justifications I honestly am at a loss here. I guess lynching earth wouldn't be a huge town loss here, but assuming we mislynch him we are going to be down to MYLO tomorrow so that is a risk I have to decide I am willing to take and atm I am a little wishy washy on it.
Whiteflame- I think hes probably town, but yes, I am still a bit suspicious of him. I can't help it, I am naturally always suspicious of whiteflame when I am town. I recruited him to the mason particularly because I suspected him and felt like I could get a better handle on him from discord messaging, see if we echo each others thoughts. For the most part we have, and I do want to town read him for that, but there are a couple of red flags with him this phase that I did point out to him already. The first being I think his focus on getting people to overly think about wylted's use or lack of use of his action got people to divulge a ton of information for free. Whiteflame should have known from the get go that Wylted didn't use his action since mine went through and he didn't strengthen me, so right away this whole thing was a waste of time. I get a lot of this push also came from earth, which was why I was initally suspicious of earth. But it resulted in basically every town member telling whether or not they acted or not, which means now mafia know who is an active role and who is a passive role and have enough POE to work out what to do with their night actions if they are smart. He also divulged our existing in the mason pm a little prematurely. I kind of wanted to formulate a plan and keep town guessing, for example I am not the worst night kill as a neighborizer isn't a huge threat role wise. Maybe baiting I was some super confirmable and powerful role could have helped draw the night kill, or some other gambit. Maybe hinting that I was in a standard mason PM. I hadn't worked out a strategy yet, but I didn't want to fully out as the neighborizer yet and I think whiteflame could have reserved in outting that information. I think it would have come out regardless so its not the end of the world or anything, and it also helps town POE here as well as mafia POE, so I am not holding it as a major point against him. My main worry about him being scum is that when I was scum with him in the past I saw first hand how freakin good he is at piecing together who is what based on POE and mafia counters, so with him kind of asking everyone whether they visited or not that was a big red flag to me and if whiteflame is scum, he can tailor his night actions around that information tonight. For the record I confronted him about all this already in the neighborizer pm, and he answered in a way I largely liked and felt he would say as town. I could just be allowing myself to be manipulated by him, so I am taking my read on him with a huge grain of salt for now, but OVERALL I think whiteflame leans more town to me than scum. His behavior feels very townish to me both in the day phase and in the mason PM, and ultimately I feel constantly being suspicious of him will bite me in the arse, so if he is scum I think its something that we will have to figure out in MYLO/LYLO because I don't think I am willing to lynch him today.
Banana- leaning town still, yes its hard to read inactivity, but her play is basically the same as it was in the last game. She's chipping in when asked, and maybe she's not providing ground breaking information or reads or anything, but her "compliance is key" gameplay feels similar to her last game. The only time I've seen her as scum she was overly emotional and reacted poorly to pressure, some thing I haven't seen from her yet. I am also still kind of leaning on mod pscyhe a bit that one of the vets is scum, and so giving her a bit of a pass. I think we should push her claim next day phase if she hasn't provided any useful results or analysis by then, but for now I am willing to give her a town pass for today.
Moozer- scum lean, based purely on his role- I like his effort this game, and I do feel like we are getting a moozer who is genuinely trying his best. I also kind of mod psyche his not being scum here, but the only problem I have with him at the moment is his role. Roles that revolve around not getting lynched are generally not town aligned, and I have a problem thinking that pie would put a role like that on the towns side. It's all wifom at the end of the day, and mod psyche so I feel like its a hard thing to justify, but this just leans into what I think pie would or wouldn't do. Ultimately I can see moozer as a viable lynch target today because the worst harm that comes from it is a no lynch, which isn't the end of the world.
Cerluean- Null, lean town? After just playing in the last game with a mostly inactive cerulean, I can't read him based on his activity alone. His thoughts have been coherent for the most part, and I did town read casey before he replaced. If people were interested in pursuing cerulean for a claim before the end of the day phase I wouldn't be against it.
Mharman- Null, In his response to banana explains his activity by being bored or disinterested in mafia. I have to decide if I buy that, if its true, it sucks because Ive said before that town mharman usually feel really easy to read and posts massive clumps of paragraphs game theorizing, and usually it is pretty easy to tell if he's town. That said, he was town in the last game as well and his behavior does kind of echo the lazy feel we were getting from him in the last one. So I am just gonna throw him in the null category for now as well.
Conclusion: I am down to push for information from one of cerulean of mharman before the day phase ends, of just straight up lynch test moozer. If it came down to lynching earth I could be convinced to do it, but like I said, I can see that one biting us with it being an "oh it was actually just earth being earth" in the end, where we learn nothing from our mistakes in the past. Thats where I am at, a few more nulls than I would like here, but I think scum is blending in well. I still like to think scum is in the vets I just have no clue and no SOLID reads which is unfortunate, but also a sign that scum is playing well and more evidence that scum are probably vets.
Official Vote Count:
Earth (2/4) - Lunatic, Moozer
Mharman (1/4) - Banana
Moozer (1/4) - Mharman
"20 degrees below zero, fuckin' ice cube was in his element"
—Alex Mason
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@Mharman
Approximately 8.5 hours remaining
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@Cerulean
Alright, want to get my list of reads up early so that we can do at least one push for information before we end up having to make a decision.
Earth - Lean scum. I think I've already made my case clear here and it's been echoed by several others. I don't like that he targeted me and still hasn't provided any reason for doing so beyond just saying that he didn't see my role claim last DP. I don't like that his character justification looks virtually identical to mine and yields a role that doesn't fit it much at all (and in a game where scum can ask about 4 characters if they wish, claiming major characters doesn't do much to move the needle, and a poor justification for an outlying role is entirely plausible for scum to claim). I don't like that his choices of who to sus are almost entirely arbitrary and unexplained. Yes, Earth can sometimes make some very poor choices with his roles as town, and yes, regardless of his affiliation, his reads often come without much in the way of explanation, but I can't just set all this aside because some aspects of his behavior align with his meta. I'm willing to wait on lynching him to give him some opportunity to do something meaningful and actually explain himself in a future DP, but he's likely to remain a scumread the rest of this game.
Banana - Slight scum. I've said before that I don't like her first post and I still don't, particularly given that she says she had a successful night action, which would indicate the Martyr wasn't used. I don't like that her read on Earth amounts to "he feels town to me" and that her read on Mharman is mainly due to a lack of interest in a game that's featured a lot of that. With only 3 posts, it's really hard to read into her behaviorally, though and I think scum Banana wouldn't put herself in a position where she could be outed for her claim of a night action.
Mharman - Slight town. I like his reads by and large and his analysis has been pretty good despite perhaps digging a little less than usual. He was one of my stronger townreads in DP1 because he seemed to be presenting a lot of the same thoughts I had before I posted them. I'm reexamining that this DP, mainly because I can't dismiss the possibility that those who claimed the lack of a night action are trying to stay under the radar. Still, I think he's behaviorally pretty consistent with his townplay and his reads have been good. I'm still willing to seek a claim from him at some point, but he's not my priority at the moment.
Lunatic - Town. Frankly, everything he said about my decisions this DP is entirely fair, I was quick to jump the gun and start interrogating the information we had when it would almost certainly have been better to hold much of what we knew back. Suffice it to say that I had an idea of how to use it that I probably should have talked through with him before pursuing it in full, and that's on me. A scum Neighborizer is not out of the realm of plausibility, but nothing in our chat or in his posts here has tipped me off.
Moozer - Null. I keep flipping back and forth on Moozer. I had a scumread on him by the end of the last DP and that hasn't really changed behaviorally, but his claim balances it a bit. From where I'm sitting at least, it's the kind of claim that invites town to test it. If he'd have come out with this in DP1, he'd likely be a slight townread for me since the risk of losing a lynch was, at worst, a minor concern that early. Having come out with it here, it still moves the needle, but not enough that I'm writing him off. If we don't have another viable target, testing Moozer's role isn't a bad option, and for me at least, it would basically confirm him as town (I understand that it's possible scum could have an Escape Artist, but I don't really buy that Pie would give scum that kind of role and essentially force town to commit to a consecutive lynch).
Cerulean - Null. Another person whose behavior hasn't really tipped me off as being off, though I just don't have as much to go off of with Cerulean. He's given some good insights and responses, but little in the way of reads, particularly this DP. I'm more hesitant to form a clear read on Cerulean based on that alone because he's fooled me on this front before as scum, hence the read being null.
So, my take-away is that I'd prefer to get a claim from either Banana or Cerulean at this point (prefer Banana, though it looks like more people are willing to pursue Cerulean and I would still like to get his reads, hence the vote below), then assuming that information isn't enough to change my calculus, I'd prefer the Earth lynch. I'm not opposed to lynching Moozer and it might end up being the best choice, particularly given how far apart we all are on Earth.
VTL Cerulean
Official Vote Count:
Earth (1/4) - Moozer
Mharman (1/4) - Banana
Moozer (1/4) - Mharman
Cerulean (1/4) - Whiteflame
"I keep hearing the fucking numbers!"
—Alex Mason
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@whiteflame
Fixed thanks
Does anyone besides Mhar want my full claim? I’m fine doing it I just need to know how much pressure is really on me.
Final reads:
Earth: scum, I know I said I bought his claim earlier, but I had missed where he said he didn’t see Whiteflame’s claim. Either he truly did miss it, and then picked Whiteflame at random which makes no sense (and he hasn’t answered why he did that), or he’s scum and he picked the person he knew would move just to be safe and have his claim line up, which makes a lot more sense. I’m fine lynching him this DP, the only thing that gives me pause is that his character is pretty important to the story but his justification is horrible, so it evens out for me. I also don’t like this post too much:
I'm okay to check Moozer's lynchproof, but otherwise I say we should pressure within Mhar or Cerulean.
No one was even suggesting testing my ability, and this feels like trying to get us to essentially VTNL.
Lunatic: town, his role gives him enough credit for now at least, and we’ve got better suspects to pursue
Banana: Null, hasn’t been active enough this DP, or maybe I haven’t been paying enough attention. My fault I don’t have reads here
Cerualean: Null, same as Banana, I haven’t been paying enough attention to give reads
Whiteflame: Slight town, Earth’s supposed motion detector gives us nothing, so I have to go on behavior, and Whiteflame’s been acting pretty normal I’d say. I don’t have any reason to suspect them.
Mharman: Null, I considered putting him in my scum pile, but that’s a bit too OMGUSy. I just don’t really understand why he’s after me. Not that I really mind testing my ability this DP if that’s what people want, but so far I’ve only really seen him and Earth advocating for it, and I’d rather do a real lynch since it’s DP2.
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@Moozer325
Does anyone besides Mhar want my full claim? I’m fine doing it I just need to know how much pressure is really on me.
You already role claimed so what would be the point in not giving the rest?
If earth gets mislynched here and is town…lol
Lynched* obviously it would be a mislynch if he was town lol
Is that a slip Lunatic?
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@Earth
Wouldn’t make sense since I’m the only one sticking up for you lol if I was scum you’d think I’d be advocating your lynch here
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@Lunatic
I'll be honest, thats kinda sus.
You should know that it means nothing if scum defends a mislynch target, especially one that will get lynched anyway.
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@Earth
I'll be honest, thats kinda sus.
lol how?
You should know that it means nothing if scum defends a mislynch target, especially one that will get lynched anyway.
Your whole basis for this is that you think I scum slipped? Come on dude, kind of weak.
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@Earth
For this DP at least, I'm not really willing to consider the Luna vote. He's my strongest townread and one post where he said mislynch instead of lynch (we've been talking about this in our chat and he has made very clear that he views you as likely town) isn't really going to shift that, so if that read's going to change, it's not going to be now. It's fair to consider what went into it, and I also don't buy the WIFOM argument he gave you in response, so we can revisit this next DP when we have more time.
Anyways talking to Whiteflame I think we decided there is too much doubt on earth. Between his claim, and overall behavior, the people wanting to lynch him, etc I feel earth is kind of an easy mislynch here and I don’t wanna get hit with that “well technically it was earths fault” yeah yeah been burned there before.
But today is the last day we can probably test moozer. If he is actually lynch proof I don’t think we can test that in mylo/lylo. At the very worst we get a solid townread player who we don’t have to worry about and a no lynch instead of risking a last second decision mislynch. Talking with Whiteflame we think moozer is the best option for today. We will have to be more active and engaged dp3 and make something happen, everyone should be full claiming tomorrow. If we don’t have results to work with in dp 3 it is what it is, should have chose better targets.
For today, vtl moozer.
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@Moozer325
As for this DP, I've talked it over with Luna and the Moozer lynch just makes the most sense right now. We likely won't get another chance to test his role, and if the worst case scenario is that we lose out on a lynch to confirm that role, then I don't see it as a substantial harm. We can also revisit Earth next DP, as I'd like to get more insight from those who view him as town.
All that being said, the more I've seen from Moozer behaviorally, the more I believe that he's likely town, so I suspect he'll still be with us next DP.
VTL Moozer
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@Lunatic
I was mostly joking, I just feel like saying you are the only one defending me means absolutely nothing, like I have no idea why you said it.
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@whiteflame
Bro what changed from yesterday? You were on my dick yesterday because I wanted to test Moozer's role.