Call of Duty: Black Ops Mafia DP3

Author: ILikePie5

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Mharman
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@Cerulean
6 players left. If we VTNL, we give them the chance to figure out their extra NK method. If they figure it out two townies die. 4 players left, 2v2 = town autoloss.

The only time we wouldn’t be concerned about it is if we lynch correctly today.
Cerulean
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Right. So I'm saying, if we're going to lynch anyway, then we have one more lynch left afterwards either way, even if scum gets a double kill. So there isn't really a reason to avoid speculation about the double kill, is there? If we were in a normal F5 LYLO, then sure, but we aren't.
Mharman
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@Cerulean
Oh I think I see what you’re saying. We’re screwed if we mislynch anyway, so we might as well reveal the information and help find the right lynch since we’re not gonna VTNL anyways.

I didn’t think about that. My b

NP1 I was told that someone in this game has a hidden aspect to their role.
Mharman
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I think the extra NK is a counter to Moozer’s role, so I wonder if the hidden aspect that gives scum the extra NK is on his role.

Earth
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@whiteflame
Revnov was raised during a time of hardship and war. Revnov trusted Dragovich, Kravchenko and Steiner (my PM name drops Steiner FWIW). However they betrayed me and threw me in prison. This did not break my spirits because I later became a leader in prison. Encouraging men with nothing left, and meeting Mason, I staged an uprising. While fighting through the prison, I was killed, but I live on in Mason's mind. My hate and lust for revenge for those that betrayed me live on in Mason's mind and he fought Drago, Kravchenko and Steiner for me.
Cerulean
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@Earth
@whiteflame
"A hidden aspect"- is that the exact wording? Seems very unhelpful, although I guess it would make sense with Night 1 if it's meant to be increasing usefulness.

People with more experience than me in Pie games- do you believe that this could be something he would host? It doesn't seem familiar to anything he's done before, from what I recall.
Earth
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@Cerulean
I don't remember any hidden aspects, but you can also just look back at old Pie Endgames. Its what I am about to do. Pie likes negative utility roles though.
whiteflame
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@Cerulean
I did actually check on whether or not Strengthener would work- Pie told me it's basically that if I die, the victim's ability is just gone, so it can't be used in the first place and therefore couldn't be strengthened.

It doesn't fit Pie modpsych to include a role like Strengthener and then not have anything to strengthen against, right? So there must be something wolves have going on under the hood... unless Strengthener was a guess hoping that there existed some Town power that could be strengthened against.
Something’s up with the balance this game that I can’t quite put my finger on. Don’t blame you for continuing to question the Strengthener, as I’m still having trouble seeing where I fit into this with the claimed roles.
whiteflame
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@Earth
Revnov was raised during a time of hardship and war. Revnov trusted Dragovich, Kravchenko and Steiner (my PM name drops Steiner FWIW). However they betrayed me and threw me in prison. This did not break my spirits because I later became a leader in prison. Encouraging men with nothing left, and meeting Mason, I staged an uprising. While fighting through the prison, I was killed, but I live on in Mason's mind. My hate and lust for revenge for those that betrayed me live on in Mason's mind and he fought Drago, Kravchenko and Steiner for me.
Alright, I’ve got thoughts on this, but I’ll save them for when I get back home and have a chance to write up my thoughts in full.
whiteflame
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@Cerulean
"A hidden aspect"- is that the exact wording? Seems very unhelpful, although I guess it would make sense with Night 1 if it's meant to be increasing usefulness.

People with more experience than me in Pie games- do you believe that this could be something he would host? It doesn't seem familiar to anything he's done before, from what I recall.
There have been a couple of role choices that have already surprised me in this game, including the confirmed Escape Artist, so I’m not sure how much I should trust past experience in games he’s hosted. Both bits of information he’s received aren’t terribly helpful at this point, so I can’t say they move the needle in terms of my perception of him. Same goes for you, though.
whiteflame
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@Mharman
@Cerulean
Looking for the kind of details Earth provided about his character from each of you as well.
Mharman
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@whiteflame
Pretty much what I gave. He was going to provide information to Weaver and Hudson, but was killed before he could give it out. Had he lived, he could’ve given them valuable information.
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@Mharman
Still something. Thanks.

Anyway, going to take a breather from this. Hopefully Cerulean will fill in more of the specifics of his PM by the next time I’m back and I can give my detailed thoughts.
Moozer325
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Sorry I haven’t been active enough. 

Interesting role claim by Mharman. I already townread him before and his role seems like a weird scum claim, so he’s firmly in my town pile.

As for Cerulean, I figure that “die” refers to lynch or NK, which makes the role feel a little scummy. It’s another one of those “don’t lynch me” roles, although I was the other one so maybe I shouldn’t be talking. If he survives this next night, I’m going to really suspect him, but I sus Earth way more for now. Also, side note that’s another RB-like role which gives Whiteflame a little more town cred, and maybe some town cred to Cerulean. It still feels like not enough roleblocking to justify WF’s role though, I could still see scum having a RB.

As for the Banana v Earth situation, my feelings remain the same. I scum-read earth last DP, and now that we know either he or banana is lying I think that’s an easy choice.

My proposed game plan, we lynch Earth this DP, if Cerulean survives we probably end up lynching them. I town read Mharman and Whiteflame, and if Earth flips scum then that gives major town cred to Banana, which leaves us with the already a little suspicious cerulean to lynch. And Ceruleans role doesn’t really matter, because we’re at MYLO anyways.
iamanabanana
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What’s interesting is that the only two roles that could prevent a role it doesn’t seem like strengthener can interact with. Whiteflame said his role doesn’t interact with wylteds and pie couldn’t answer about the muse since it’s still a hypothetical role. But I don’t see how his role could interact with it.

Whiteflame could be lying but he was the one who initially drew attention to the point that there isn’t evidence of any f a roleblocker. So the likelihood that either Whiteflame was lying or earth was actually redirected seems a bit higher, and I don’t think Whiteflame is lying because he was the one who drew attention to the fact.

Ceruleans role feels a bit scummy to me though.

So does mharmans, more so his choice not to give information he had until day phase three and risked letting himself die twice without giving out any information. It’s pretty convienent he is still alive to give this information now. I also don’t see why it was imperative for him to wait to last to claim any of this.

Anyways my POE is still the same I guess but all three have equal reasons for me to be suspicious of them.
Moozer325
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@iamanabanana
What about Earth? Is your PoE really those three? Because Earth is my number one scum read, and I’d figure you’d have him higher since  either he was redirected, or he’s lying, or you’re lying (but from your POV you’d know that you aren’t)
iamanabanana
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What about Earth? Is your PoE really those three? Because Earth is my number one scum read, and I’d figure you’d have him higher since  either he was redirected, or he’s lying, or you’re lying (but from your POV you’d know that you aren’t)
Earth is in my POE. Mharman cerulean and earth are my POE. Only way earth is town is if I was redirected, but I am not insta voting him because that is actually a plausibility seeing as whiteflames role would otherwise be useless as no one as claimed a role blocking ability and ceruleans and wylteds don’t appear to interact with a strengthener.
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@iamanabanana
Okay, fair enough. I must have misread because you spent a lot of time on Whiteflame and barely even mentioned Earth.
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@Moozer325
Okay, fair enough. I must have misread because you spent a lot of time on Whiteflame and barely even mentioned Earth.
I am currently town reading Whiteflame for the record just theory crafting about how his role interacts with other players and what that means for their seemingly not being a roleblocker in the game since no one has apparently been blocked.
whiteflame
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@Earth
@Mharman
@Moozer325
@Cerulean
@iamanabanana
Alright, I have a lot of thoughts about the game so far and I'd really love to post them... but despite being on several hours ago, well after I requested it, Cerulean has yet to provide any more details from his PM. Thankfully, we have the time to wait a little longer, as  the DP doesn't end for roughly 39 hours. That being said, I'm not dragging this out beyond tomorrow morning, so whether I get insights about your PM by then or not, I'll break down my thoughts entirely sometime shortly after I get to work tomorrow. It'll give me another opportunity to go over my thinking and tonight I'm tired enough that whatever spills out of me will likely be a jumbled mess anyway.

Thanks to everyone who provided insight into their PMs in a more timely fashion. I did ask Banana to provide it via our chat on Discord, so I have it there. These aren't the only factors I'm considering, and I do appreciate everyone laying out their reads so far, so bear with me.
whiteflame
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Dealing with a minor medical emergency this morning, post will probably come later than I anticipated.
Earth
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At first, Banana should be a really easy scumread for me, especially after reporting that I visited Lunatic, I did not. However the idea that there is a redirector and confirmation that redirector can affect me kinda makes me feel like there is a chance that Banana is town and Mafia is relatively busted. I wonder who her partner is though, because she has been rather lax and there is a nagging feeling that mafia is actually Mhar and Cerulean.
iamanabanana
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@Earth
At first, Banana should be a really easy scumread for me, especially after reporting that I visited Lunatic, I did not. However the idea that there is a redirector and confirmation that redirector can affect me kinda makes me feel like there is a chance that Banana is town and Mafia is relatively busted. I wonder who her partner is though, because she has been rather lax and there is a nagging feeling that mafia is actually Mhar and Cerulean.
it could be mharman and cerulean, if they redirected me, it would make sense. if you are mafia my question is why you wouldn't have just said you used your role on whiteflame anyway instead of lie about it. it could be because you are hoping to mislynch me, but yeah I am also considering that it is mharman and cerulean, I don't really like either of their claims.... I really fail to understand why mharman didn't reveal any of his information and gambled saving information on the hope he wouldn't be night killed... It doesn't make any sense to me. Out of the two I think mharman is scummier.
Mharman
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@iamanabanana
I don't really like either of their claims.... 
what don’t you like about mine? Idc too much for Ceruean’s either

I really fail to understand why mharman didn't reveal any of his information and gambled saving information on the hope he wouldn't be night killed... 

It wasn’t hope. As you get better at the game you learn to make predictions. Last DP, I had predicted the kill was between you, Whiteflame, with Lunatic only being an outside chance. All three of you had claimed active abilties, so I knew I wasn’t going to be a target.

It was calculated and I got extra information.
iamanabanana
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@Mharman
what don’t you like about mine? Idc too much for Ceruean’s either
Not really your claim, just the choice to withhold the information, I don't understand what it accomplished.

It wasn’t hope. As you get better at the game you learn to make predictions. Last DP, I had predicted the kill was between you, Whiteflame, with Lunatic only being an outside chance. All three of you had claimed active abilties, so I knew I wasn’t going to be a target.
Why didn't you think there was a protection role? Also what did withholding your information actually accomplish?
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@Mharman
I am withholding the NP1 result out of concerns the two pieces of information might be related; specifically, I’m concerned if I reveal it will give scum a hint. Do not openly speculate about this.

NP1 I was told that someone in this game has a hidden aspect to their role
Why does waiting to reveal this make any sense?
Mharman
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@iamanabanana
Not really your claim, just the choice to withhold the information, I don't understand what it accomplished. 
I simply misunderstood the situation with that. Cerulean pointed it out me.

Are you arguing that I withheld the information because I hadn’t made said info up yet? You really think I would fake claim without everything ready?

Furthermore, and comments on the character and justification? I notice that’s lacking from your read.

Why didn't you think there was a protection role?
Where did I say that? I didn’t. Sure, now that no one’s claimed one, it would make sense to believe that now, but in no prior posts of mine did I say that I didn’t think there was a protective role. I pondered a theory and you’re misunderstanding.

Also what did withholding your information actually accomplish?
i already answered this
iamanabanana
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@Mharman
I simply misunderstood the situation with that. Cerulean pointed it out me.
I seen that, but I am not talking about that. In your head, what was the reason for holding the information? What did you think waiting to reveal it was going to do? Did you think the mafia was going to confess to an extra ability?

Are you arguing that I withheld the information because I hadn’t made said info up yet? You really think I would fake claim without everything ready?
I just asked you a question, your the one getting defensive and jumping to these conclusions. Sure they are possible though. I was just asking what is going through your head...

Furthermore, and comments on the character and justification? I notice that’s lacking from your read.
I haven't really looked into them. Comments about my character and whiteflames character was a response to the "your character is weak" argument only. Whiteflame pointed out that because mafia get to ask questions about characters available, theres limited things we can accomplish by looking too much into this category.

Where did I say that? I didn’t.
You gambled that the kill was between me whiteflame and lunatic, meaning you didn't consider mafia would be worried about a doctor and have motivation to hit outside those targets. I don't see why you wouldn't consider yourself a likely night target, so much that you would gamble making your role completely useless.

i already answered this

Where? Why not just indulge me and answer it again, unless your talking about the "not seeing ceruleans point" which isn't an answer.




Earth
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I wonder whats the point of an Informed if it doesn't tell you the nature of this hidden aspect.
Shila
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@Earth
I wonder whats the point of an Informed if it doesn't tell you the nature of this hidden aspect.
He remains well informed.