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@Shila
Please avoid posting the in the thread if you are not an active participant.
Call of Duty: Black Ops Mafia DP3
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199
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@Earth
@Mharman
@annabanana20
@Moozer325
@Cerulean
Alright, so I've got some downtime (finally) before I have to finish writing a report for work. That means I can finally post about this. Noted that Cerulean has, once again, been on in my absence and not posted.
So, why am I focused on getting the extra details from PMs?
Take a look at the flips so far:
Bullish has a very specific set of incidents that occurred to Grigori (tied to a chair, spotted through binoculars, death by knife through eye) and individually named characters involved in those incidents (Mason, Woods, Kravchenko and Dragovich).
WyIted has the same (going to a Russian cargo plane wreck, defending it, captured, tortured, death by pipe) and its own set of characters (Woods and Mason).
Luna has the same (captured, turned into a sleeper agent, solving the puzzle of his past under fire) and one character (Dragovich).
Then we can look at the claims so far (setting aside Moozer whose role has been confirmed, though I would like his input on this):
Mharman follows the pattern. He said his role mentions both Weaver and Hudson as intended recipients of his information before he was killed, and it mentions the Nova 6 (which is part of Moozer's claim as well). Maybe a little more slight on details about what happened to him, but there are still details to glean.
Earth follows the pattern. Trusted three named characters (Dragovich, Kravchenko, Steiner and Mason), betrayed and thrown in prison staging an uprising, killed during the fight.
In fact, the way he presented it initially had me sussing it for how close it was to mine (though my claim does reference Reznov and Mason), but the more details he's given, the less I've sussed his claim since mine directly emphasizes my character's strength and his focuses more on the mental impact of his character, which might link (albeit loosely) to his role.
Banana's claim conspicuously differs. It does mention one character (Captain Mosely, notably not mentioned by anyone else), but doesn't reference specific actions taken by the character, saying what Major Neitsch generally does for the team, his capabilities, and that "aided the missions success." That's vague in a way none of the other claims or specific PMs have been.
So, why focus on this? I think it's entirely possible that someone could have crafted a convincing justification from knowledge of an available character and/or role (certainly many of you have had access to full flips to use as templates), but I also think that's the hardest part of providing a convincing claim in a game where you have access to this kind of information. I know it's where I've struggled when I've done games like this where I could ask the mod about the existence of certain roles and characters. Unlike a lot of things that could just be the result of certain people playing this game a certain way (and boy do I have a lot of complaints with how Earth in particular has played this one), this is something where I couldn't really bias my view based on frustration or what I'd expect to see from a given player.
Beyond all this, while I really don't like Earth's play last DP, I've seen a lot more focus and attention to detail from him this DP. Maybe he just got his shit in order as scum, but I suspect it's more tied to his frustrations last game of being sussed as town and feeling like his role was going to be wasted. Now that he's got a result that matters, he wants to make it count. I've had some reason to second-guess Banana much of this game, particularly her initial response to WyIted's flip. The Watcher/Tracker is certainly a big swing and if this was a normal game from Pie where scum only got to ask about two roles, that might have changed my mind here. But scum got to ask about any four roles or characters. They could have just picked four roles and found that neither a Watcher nor a Tracker was in this game. I'm not sussing her because of that, but I also can't treat it as a meaningful counter to my other reasons for sussing her.
As for who else I'm considering, that would be Cerulean at this point. He's had a very long time to respond to my request and has avoided it despite being online at least twice since I made it. The Muse role being uncounterable by mine also feels very convenient, particularly with a mass uncounterable RB already on the table from WyIted's flip.
Anyway, that's my big block post, sorry it took so long. I want thoughts from everyone. I won't post a vote until we've talked through this.
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@iamanabanana
I seen that, but I am not talking about that. In your head, what was the reason for holding the information? What did you think waiting to reveal it was going to do? Did you think the mafia was going to confess to an extra ability?
No, I did not think mafia would confess to an extra ability. Why is that even a question? My fear was that mafia could figure out how to get the extra night kill.
I did not account for the fact that since we’re not gonna VTNL here, there’s no point in fearing them figuring it since if we mislynch, the game is over, therefore I might as well reveal… Which is why I eventually did reveal said information after that was pointed out to me.
I just asked you a question, you’re the one getting defensive and jumping to these conclusions. Sure they are possible though. I was just asking what is going through your head...
What other reason could you have for asking that question? You’d logically have to argue if I’m scum, I waited because I hadn’t thought of an idea yet, which is bullshit because I’m not fake claiming without both pieces of information.
But since we’re framing rhetorical questions in this way, I’d argue that the question you just asked about if I thought scum would confess an ability is worse here. It’s proof you either severely misunderstand what’s going on here, or are pretending to. My money is starting to go on the former.
Also, I’m going to defend myself when accused; I’m not gonna just let myself be mislynched, especially in LYLO.
I haven't really looked into them. Comments about my character and whiteflames character was a response to the "your character is weak" argument only. Whiteflame pointed out that because mafia get to ask questions about characters available, theres limited things we can accomplish by looking too much into this category.
Sure, but even with that as a given, shaky justifications are a good thing to look into.
You gambled that the kill was between me whiteflame and lunatic, meaning you didn't consider mafia would be worried about a doctor and have motivation to hit outside those targets. I don't see why you wouldn't consider yourself a likely night target, so much that you would gamble making your role completely useless.
They have no reason to hit outside of those targets.
First things first, you are the only player in this game who had not revealed their role while claiming an active role.
Assuming you’re town, you’re a prime target, meaning that if they want to avoid town night actions, Whiteflame and Lunatic are both good options. Whiteflame has more utility being strengthener imo, so he’s more likely than Lunatic.
Assuming you’re scum, then you’re either started the DP bussing Earth, or he’s town.
If he’s town, he’s the most likely target, with Whiteflame and Lunatic both being great secondary targets.
If you’re both scum, Whiteflame and Lunatic are still both fine targets.
Keep in mind you’re also assuming scum doesn’t use PRs that get around town abilties.
All this to say, I was 99% sure I was safe this night, and free to get an extra NP of information. I’m also incentivized to do so, given that my information gets better each night.
Yeah I can see why Wylted wants Shila banned
Spamspamspam
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@whiteflame
Banana's claim conspicuously differs. It does mention one character (Captain Mosely, notably not mentioned by anyone else), but doesn't reference specific actions taken by the character, saying what Major Neitsch generally does for the team, his capabilities, and that "aided the missions success." That's vague in a way none of the other claims or specific PMs have been
I admire the analysis, but I am sorry, this is a case of apophenia. I've been completely honest with you about my character and my role.
I've had some reason to second-guess Banana much of this game, particularly her initial response to WyIted's flip.
My action went through, so I knew that wylted couldn't have died...
The Watcher/Tracker is certainly a big swing and if this was a normal game from Pie where scum only got to ask about two roles, that might have changed my mind here. But scum got to ask about any four roles or characters. They could have just picked four roles and found that neither a Watcher nor a Tracker was in this game. I'm not sussing her because of that, but I also can't treat it as a meaningful counter to my other reasons for sussing her.
Then why mention it, if its something you aren't sussing me for? What exactly are you sussing me for? Saying that scum could have fake claimed my role isn't really an argument I can respond too...
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@iamanabanana
I admire the analysis, but I am sorry, this is a case of apophenia. I've been completely honest with you about my character and my role.
I'll put this back to you, then. If this is apophenia as you say (and notably, apophenia applies to random or unrelated events, while these are clearly related and decidedly not random), then why does every single other PM fit this trend except yours? I understand you're claiming honesty, but that doesn't do much for challenging the point I'm making.
My action went through, so I knew that wylted couldn't have died...
...except you started the DP saying this:
That suggested uncertainty on your part as to whether he'd used his role. You wouldn't have to ask this question if you already knew that his Martyr wasn't activated.
Then why mention it, if its something you aren't sussing me for? What exactly are you sussing me for? Saying that scum could have fake claimed my role isn't really an argument I can respond too...
Because it's a response to your argument that the existence of a Watcher/Tracker bolsters your case. I've made clear what I'm sussing you for.
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@Mharman
No, I did not think mafia would confess to an extra ability. Why is that even a question? My fear was that mafia could figure out how to get the extra night kill.
Why would mafias ability to have an extra night kill be affected by their knowledge of another plays hidden ability?
What other reason could you have for asking that question? You’d logically have to argue if I’m scum, I waited because I hadn’t thought of an idea yet, which is bullshit because I’m not fake claiming without both pieces of information.
I think it's totally possible that could be a reason, there could be a plethora of reasons, you just happened to use that as an example, being overly defensive like that could suggest that is the actual answer. Either way there could be a different one too, but seeing as you had the luxury of being able to claim when you want, last, and under no pressure, I have every reason to believe you prepared the fake claim last second, as if waiting to build your claim around what everyone else claimed. The behavior in question is about responses to cerulean that occured before you divulged the information about your night 1 action, you could tailor that information however you wanted based on ceruleans claim and responses to your role.
But since we’re framing rhetorical questions in this way, I’d argue that the question you just asked about if I thought scum would confess an ability is worse here. It’s proof you either severely misunderstand what’s going on here, or are pretending to. My money is starting to go on the former.
This reads like a threat "If you keep on this route of suspecting me I might turn this around on you. so watch yourself". Why would you be threatening me with a read, you either do or you don't scum read me. It's convenient that the reads suddenly strengthens when I start asking you some light questions. You are getting very defensive :)
Sure, but even with that as a given, shaky justifications are a good thing to look into.
There's been a lot of discussions about most or a lot of these roles having shaky justifications. Im not too familiar with this game to really dig deep into that stuff anyway. Right now I am more focused on people's behavior.
They have no reason to hit outside of those targets.First things first, you are the only player in this game who had not revealed their role while claiming an active role.
They have plenty of reason to hit outside those targets.
1. Again, the threat of a doctor being one. If your saying those three targets are "obvious" wouldn't scum want to try and hit outside of the group of people most likely to prevent their kill?
2. There was three unclaimed individuals, me you and cerulean. Just because I claimed an active role didn't neccesarily mean my role was a threat to them. Also you could have been lying about being a passive role, and secretly BEEN the doctor. Same with cerulean. Unclaimed townies seem like a pretty big threat. Look at the role you have. If your role is true it could be a huge negative for mafia, they have no reason to assume your role isn't a threat because you claimed it was passive.
To suggest that you KNEW you weren't a viable target enough to risk allowing game changing information to not be revealed, also suggests you have inside information, and knew you wouldn't be targeted, as if you were the one with the ability to direct the night kill...
I wonder whats the point of an Informed if it doesn't tell you the nature of this hidden aspect.
I think I was given lesser information NP1 bc I’m supposed to be incentivized to stay alive and get more information.
If my current theory about Moozer is correct, there could also be a negative utility /bait aspect, where if I reveal my NP1 information, it helps scum figure out how to get that extra NK, before I get warned that they have said capabilities in NP2.
I base this on the idea that I was told scum doesn’t know their method, not that they don’t know they can get an extra night kill.
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@Earth
Forgot to tag
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@whiteflame
I'll put this back to you, then. If this is apophenia as you say (and notably, apophenia applies to random or unrelated events, while these are clearly related and decidedly not random), then why does every single other PM fit this trend except yours? I understand you're claiming honesty, but that doesn't do much for challenging the point I'm making.
Apophenia to me is when you start looking hard at patterns that any sort of pattern suddenly makes sense. I get it, that's what you do in these themes. But how often does our perception of what the theme split is pan out the way we think? I am sure it happens occasionally, but this is a case of you being wrong, and I know that because I am town. If I was more knowledgeable on the theme I could perhaps help identify other patterns that fit that could also be relevant, but since I do not know much about black ops, I can't do that. I am just suggesting that you don't hedge too many bets on what you perceive to be the theme split based off of one theory. Also isn't it significantly more likely mafia are usually already aware of the theme split by having access to their own role PM's in the mafia channel? If they are aware of the split why would they allow themselves to be caught by it?
That suggested uncertainty on your part as to whether he'd used his role. You wouldn't have to ask this question if you already knew that his Martyr wasn't activated.
Of course I would act uncertain, I wasn't trying to expose the fact that I had a working action to mafia. I did eventually because you were straight up asking everyone to do this, and I've seen what non compliance leads to...
Because it's a response to your argument that the existence of a Watcher/Tracker bolsters your case. I've made clear what I'm sussing you for.
You were initially saying that the argument was straight up weak, and now your admitting that its at best a null read, which is all I was every trying to say it was, an argument to take with a grain of salt.
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@iamanabanana
Apophenia to me is when you start looking hard at patterns that any sort of pattern suddenly makes sense. I get it, that's what you do in these themes. But how often does our perception of what the theme split is pan out the way we think? I am sure it happens occasionally, but this is a case of you being wrong, and I know that because I am town. If I was more knowledgeable on the theme I could perhaps help identify other patterns that fit that could also be relevant, but since I do not know much about black ops, I can't do that. I am just suggesting that you don't hedge too many bets on what you perceive to be the theme split based off of one theory. Also isn't it significantly more likely mafia are usually already aware of the theme split by having access to their own role PM's in the mafia channel? If they are aware of the split why would they allow themselves to be caught by it?
That's not my impression of what apophenia is, but agree to disagree.
This isn't theme analysis, btw. It's analysis of how these PMs are written. I'm not analyzing themes at all. So I'm not sure why you're responding as though what I've said regards a theme split. Almost this entire response is irrelevant to my point, but you're right, scum would better know the theme split.
Of course I would act uncertain, I wasn't trying to expose the fact that I had a working action to mafia. I did eventually because you were straight up asking everyone to do this, and I've seen what non compliance leads to...
I don't know why you'd even ask if you knew this information. That's the problem: why would you actively seek knowledge you already had? To cover for yourself? To make it seem like you didn't have a night action? Maybe, but that's not how it looks to me, and if you were trying to do that, then it's surprising that you revealed you did have a night action without any pressure.
You were initially saying that the argument was straight up weak, and now your admitting that its at best a null read, which is all I was every trying to say it was, an argument to take with a grain of salt.
So... we agree then. Good.
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@whiteflame
Whiteflame- Not sure how much this matters to you since you already made your post, but my role mentions:
- I am a great tactician and natural leader.
- I serve as Mason's handler, planning missions and ensuring I get the best out of him.
- I am the one to undo Mason's brainwashing.
That about sums it up.
More to come once I get on my train.
I did ask Banana to provide it via our chat on Discord,
... Sorry, what? I thought Banana said her link to Lunatic's private channel didn't work? Did I miss that changing?
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@whiteflame
That's not my impression of what apophenia is, but agree to disagree.
To be fair, I just googled that word, I was trying to search for the one they use in crime shows to tell detectives they are seeing patterns that aren't there, but I forget the term.
This isn't theme analysis, btw. It's analysis of how these PMs are written. I'm not analyzing themes at all. So I'm not sure why you're responding as though what I've said regards a theme split. Almost this entire response is irrelevant to my point, but you're right, scum would better know the theme split.
You are getting caught up in world play, my argument still remains the same. The pattern you see in the way my role PM was written being different, is just wrong. I don't know what else to tell you.
I don't know why you'd even ask if you knew this information. That's the problem: why would you actively seek knowledge you already had? To cover for yourself? To make it seem like you didn't have a night action? Maybe, but that's not how it looks to me, and if you were trying to do that, then it's surprising that you revealed you did have a night action without any pressure.
You are overthinking this way too hard. I knew he didn't block me because I had a succesful action, and I stated the night kill going through was also evidence of this. I wasn't seeking knowledge I already had, I don't know what you mean by that. It seems you have your mind made up, which is strange you aren't considering much of mharman but whatever.
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@Cerulean
whiteflame said it in post 53
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@iamanabanana
You are getting caught up in world play, my argument still remains the same. The pattern you see in the way my role PM was written being different, is just wrong. I don't know what else to tell you.
There's a great deal of difference between hyperfocusing on a theme split that we don't know is real and noticing a very particular and clearly knowable trend among PMs that have been posted so far and what people have said about their own PMs. One is a pattern that's speculated, and one is a pattern that's entirely verifiable. You can literally read what everyone posted and notice they are consistent one with another in this respect. I could very well be wrong that this suggests you are scum, but I'm not wrong that this pattern exists and that it leaves you conspicuously absent from it, which is the point you're not addressing.
You are overthinking this way too hard. I knew he didn't block me because I had a succesful action, and I stated the night kill going through was also evidence of this. I wasn't seeking knowledge I already had, I don't know what you mean by that. It seems you have your mind made up, which is strange you aren't considering much of mharman but whatever.
I just don't agree with your interpretation of what you said. You can justify it however you'd like in retrospect, but that's not how I read it at the time you posted, and even this justification seems like a very tailored reading of your post. You asked whether the Martyr would have affected the NK. You did so knowing that your night action was successful, so the answer wasn't pertinent, but you asked anyway. That stood out to me.
And I have considered Mharman, that's just untrue.
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@Cerulean
Whiteflame- Not sure how much this matters to you since you already made your post, but my role mentions:- I am a great tactician and natural leader.- I serve as Mason's handler, planning missions and ensuring I get the best out of him.- I am the one to undo Mason's brainwashing.That about sums it up.More to come once I get on my train.
Coming up with this a little late, man. It's useless now, unfortunately.
... Sorry, what? I thought Banana said her link to Lunatic's private channel didn't work? Did I miss that changing?
As Banana said, post #53.
You really think I would fake claim without everything ready?
When you post something that has a big bold "Do not speculate on this".... maybe? I still find that hiding that information is strange. If "scum has an extra kill but they don't know the method" is already claimed, how does "a role has a hidden aspect" (paraphrasing) turn the needle information-wise at all?
Despite WF's role PM analysis, I'm starting to believe that Banana is Town just because of how her behavior change vaguely reminds me of how she behaved toward me when she was up against me in Mayday. Maybe not the best arguments, but presented in a stream of thought sort of manner that looks villagery to me.
Okay, I see it, thank you.
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@whiteflame
which is the point you're not addressing.
How do you expect someone to "address" this, exactly? Beyond the two obvious arguments of "There are probably several ways to split the PM claims 7-2" and "This would imply Pie had some sort of checklist for what to include while he was making PMs"?
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@whiteflame
There's a great deal of difference between hyperfocusing on a theme split that we don't know is real and noticing a very particular and clearly knowable trend among PMs that have been posted so far and what people have said about their own PMs. One is a pattern that's speculated, and one is a pattern that's entirely verifiable. You can literally read what everyone posted and notice they are consistent one with another in this respect. I could very well be wrong that this suggests you are scum, but I'm not wrong that this pattern exists and that it leaves you conspicuously absent from it, which is the point you're not addressing.
I am not addressing it, because I am conceding it. Yes you found a pattern that separates me from other claims. Why are you sure that there aren't other patterns? Why are you certain this is the pattern that happens to be right? Why do I have to argue that? If I am telling you the truth about my claim, which I am, it makes 0 sense for me to justify a pattern that isn't accurate just for the sake of satisfying your worries. I am telling you if there is a pattern, its a different one, not this one, because I have been truthful about my claim. I don't see where the misunderstanding is here.
I just don't agree with your interpretation of what you said. You can justify it however you'd like in retrospect, but that's not how I read it at the time you posted, and even this justification seems like a very tailored reading of your post.
Its not tailored at all. You have your mind made up and are being overly affected by your own confirmation bias that you can twist anything I say into being scummy. I literally did not think about the post in question nearly a tenth of how much you are reading into it.
You asked whether the Martyr would have affected the NK. You did so knowing that your night action was successful, so the answer wasn't pertinent, but you asked anyway. That stood out to me.
I did not ask a question seeking answers, I was literally telling him "isnt obvious that it didn't go through because wylted died?", oh I also happened to know my action went through, so I already knew it didn't go through. Nothing more to it. It's simply not that deep. I assumed he was the night kill.
And I have considered Mharman, that's just untrue.
Your sole focus right now has been on me. What are your thoughts on him gambling his information to being potentially night killed for two nights in a row? Why would he do that? What do you think about him not revealing his np1 information arbitrarily and then when it was revealed it had nothing to do with anything that would have impacted his second information?
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@whiteflame
Then we can look at the claims so far (setting aside Moozer whose role has been confirmed, though I would like his input on this):
I assume these PM investigations are mostly for the next DP, but good idea to get it out now in case something happens tonight.
It's interesting how you arrived at Banana as the odd one out from your analysis. Your methods sound like they're done well, so I think banana isn't entirely correct with the apophenia allegation. That said, that brings up the Earth v Banana dynamic and how that would work if Banana is scum. This all depends on a potential Earth scum flip, but either Banana is town and then their tracker result makes sense, or Banana is scum and set up a hard bussing situation between them self and Earth. There was also something about a possible scum re-director, but Earth got his result from Cerulean, so shouldn't that imply that he wasn't redirected? If I misunderstood something, help me out here.
I still really want the Earth lynch today, but If I missed something in your reasoning that should make me more suspicious of banana, I'm all for it.
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@Cerulean
@iamanabanana
Since both of you have asked a similar question, I’ll address my answer to both of you.
I think it’s pretty obvious how you respond to a post like that: either call out a flaw in my thinking or post an alternative way of thinking about the available claims to counter it. Doing neither and claiming that all this amounts to is theme split analysis is not what I would call a productive response.
As for all these points from Banana about confirmation bias and reframing her previous post, I’ll set that aside for now. I’ve got my suspicions there, but they aren’t the chief driving force of this inquiry. I do not love that Banana keeps accusing me of being close-minded with this line of discussion just because I’m suggesting something I’ve been saying since DP2 and using it as an additional concern, but here we are.
Your sole focus right now has been on me. What are your thoughts on him gambling his information to being potentially night killed for two nights in a row? Why would he do that? What do you think about him not revealing his np1 information arbitrarily and then when it was revealed it had nothing to do with anything that would have impacted his second information?
Considering how defensive you’ve been in response, yes, that has been my focus. I’ll address these questions since you asked, though:
The info Mhar had after NP1 doesn’t seem substantial enough to warrant outing his role, so I get that. Saying that he wanted to leave one piece of information in reserve, particularly one he thought we could do little with, could make sense if he thought this wasn’t MYLO. Don’t think that info is all that useful now, so it comes off as weird that he didn’t realize that. That’s one aspect I find concerning, it’s just not a lot to go off of.
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@Moozer325
I’ll start by pointing out the most important thing here: we’re at MYLO. We don’t have another lynch after this one if we mislynch, so this analysis is here to inform this DP, not a future one.
I’m not convinced (and don’t currently believe) that Earth and Banana are a scum team. I think it’s an either/or situation. I don’t buy that there’s a Cop plus a Time Traveler plus a Watcher/Tracker. That’s a lot of informative roles. They’re not the only ones I’m considering this DP, but they have been the focus of my attention.
The redirector discussion is one I’m putting less and less stock into as this goes on. Maybe there’s something to it, but I don’t think it’s all that productive, especially since my issues aren’t focused on any individual result.
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@whiteflame
I’m not convinced (and don’t currently believe) that Earth and Banana are a scum team.
Well that's exactly my point. Do you really scum-read Banana more than Earth? I'm not saying that Banana is squeaky clean, but in an either/or situation there's no contest between the two IMO.
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@Moozer325
Well that's exactly my point. Do you really scum-read Banana more than Earth? I'm not saying that Banana is squeaky clean, but in an either/or situation there's no contest between the two IMO.
As of right now, yes. I have had a lot of problems with Earth’s play this game and he was my pick going into this DP. I’m trying to get as much discussion of this as possible to see if that holds.
Its extremely funny that whiteflame keeps trying to sell the fact that he isn't being close minded here, while further pointing to my complaints of him being close minded as a addition to his argumnet. Lol it's funny, but I am done responding to him, he clearly has his mind made up. Not much more I can really say or do here.
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@whiteflame
To put it bluntly, I don't think it's holding. It's not bad reasoning but no detailed analysis is going to convince me more my current Earth scum-read, and the Banana vs. Earth night actions discrepancy.
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@iamanabanana
Its extremely funny that whiteflame keeps trying to sell the fact that he isn't being close minded here, while further pointing to my complaints of him being close minded as a addition to his argumnet. Lol it's funny, but I am done responding to him, he clearly has his mind made up. Not much more I can really say or do here.
You realize he's not going to lynch you over Earth, right? This is how you play mafia, you put everything out on the table just in case we missed something. He's doing his due diligence and following every possible lead.
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@Moozer325
Your the only one not in my POE I can really appeal to here anymore, so you've made it clear you think earth is the scummiest, who do you think his partner would be in mharman and cerulean?
Maybe we can identify a common scum read to pursue, but fmpov there is a 66% chance of hitting scum in any of earth, mharman and cerulean.