Call of Duty: Black Ops Mafia DP3

Anyway, I'm going to go reread this game. Shouldn't take too long, no DP is 300+ posts. Will finalize my reads for this DP. Rn leaning toward Earth being scum and bussing Cerulean. Banana is possible, but less likely due to a meta read I have on Earth.

Okay, well an extra night kill is irrelevant then. Assuming we lynch correctly, there will be 4 town and 1 mafia, and if they get two night kills its 2 town to the 1 mafia. So I don't really care.

Ok I’m done reading but my ass is gonna go to sleep and post it in the morning

Alright, so we're at just over 6 hours remaining at this point. The choice this DP is between Earth and Banana for me, which makes it all the stranger that, despite them both sussing each other, they are not each other's strongest susses.

I've spoken with Banana at length and she's made clear that Mharman is her pick. I get that I'm the one who mentioned the Redirector and how roles could have been manipulated, but it's still strange to me that she's pushing what I view as a decent but not terribly strong behavioral read on Mharman over a result on Earth. I get that this sus goes back to DP2 so this is hardly new, I just don't understand why it overrides her own result, even if she mistrusts it. If I got that kind of result, I'd at least be spending a great deal of time interrogating my target to focus on their behavior and see if there's more to it, but maybe that's just me.

Earth picked Cerulean. Given that he should know he didn't target Luna, even if he believes a Redirector affected results, that can really only be true for either his role or Banana's. The nature of the role Earth has claimed and the result he received certainly puts Cerulean in his sights, though that should be basically the same for Banana unless he has some greater reason to believe that she was the target of manipulation. For that matter, both he and Banana should just be sussing the existence of the other since, at least to some degree, they're virtual CCs in a game where we already have a Cop flip. That's a lot of investigations and the absence of a protective role doesn't explain why Pie would be willing to give town so many means to find scum.

The more I keep reading into what's gone on, the less decided I am, and the more I keep trying to understand their perspectives, the more lost I feel. That being said, we don't have a lot of time to sort this out, so I'll just go with the majority on this one. We have a vote on Earth. If that's the consensus view, then I'll vote with it.

So, we have a strengthener and a cop. With this duo, I think there is room for a second investigative role, although not guaranteed.

We have a mason that can be used for more private interrogations/ conversations/planning/ thoughts and informed to reveal some setup information. Can these two roles overcome the need for a second investigative? Possibly, so there’s a chance that we don’t have a track/watcher or a motion detector/time traveler.

But then there’s the claimed muse. A muse is a negative utility role (imo) that shuts off a town PR when killed. If there is such a role, it does allow for another investigative. There’s also the martyr. It would do the same thing. There may be a conflict between those claims.

That being said, the big conflict between claims is the tracker/watcher and the time traveler (formerly motion detector). Any way you slice it, there is not room for both. Not to mention the fact that the two roles do what is basically the same thing. You select a player, and learn about night actions they may have committed, or may have been used on them. There are some small differences, but to be frank, they seem irrelevant.

Last thing worth noting: if there is a protective role in this game that was never claimed, then than any room for a second investigative is even more difficult to justify, let alone for a third. Although I do think the chances of a third are basically nonexistent anyway.

 (DP2 read: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/12621-call-of-duty-black-ops-mafia-dp2?page=4&post_number=120)

Since this read, I haven’t been given any reason to townread Earth. The lack of clarity on the the claim is weird, and he only upgraded his claim after Banana’s CC. Despite the claim, the justification is still garbage.

The only other thing worth noting this DP is post 112, where he says Banana might be town based on the presence of a redirector. Interestingly, he fails to consider the redirector targeted him. Not only is this a clue that Earth’s claim is fake- it’s a clue that the read on Cerulean based on his results is entirely forced, along with the belief that there’s even a chance Banana might be town. Under no circumstances, from a townie Earth’s POV, should he think Banana is town.

Now to ask: Is it for a bus on Cerulean, or a push for a mislynch? And what of Banana?

Banana has given me little to read, until now.

But first let’s talk about the claim. I do have questions about the possibility of a second investigative. I do have a small nitpick with it (rareness of character) as well. The justification makes sense. It is similar to Whiteflame’s, although the character is a tad bit rarer, but if there’s a game where the mod makes an obscure pull because he wants a specific role, this would be the game. It certainly looks better than Earth’s claim, that’s for sure.

On the behavior side of things, the analysis looks fine. The read on me is wrong, but for advanced reasons, ones that I don’t think scum Banana could fake. I’ll admit my reasoning here isn’t concrete, because Banana could just be getting better at the game.

The mannerisms, I’m not sure how to read. I’ve seen her talk like this as scum, but I get the sense it’s probably how she talks no matter the affiliation.

The only thing that bugs is that she has a real incentive to CC Earth in this DP for a quick lynch or a bus. Oh, and the fact that Earth should be hard scumreading Banana right now, but isn’t. If Banana is hypothetically Earth’s teammate, I will say whoever doesn’t get lynched comes out of it smelling like a rose

I believe Earth is scum, therefore, he must be bussing someone. One think I think is odd is that if Earth is in a team with Banana, why spend more time on Cerulean, rather than reciprocating the bus from Banana? Instead, he goes for Cerulean. This is the Earth/Cerulean connection. Yes Earth expressed a scumread on Ceriean last DP, but he never explained it. Ceruean asked Earth a question, but nothing more. Of note, Earth closed the DP with a vote on Moozer, before we could get reads out of Cerulean. DP2 fells more like distancing than an honest scumread.

As for Cerulean’s claim, meh. From a mechanical pov, his claim doesn’t immediately CC Wylted. Wylted negates a whole NP at the cost of his life, and Cerulean costs one townie his role for good upon death. But when you consider what may be need to justify the existence of a second investigative role, Wylted’s does the trick and Cerulean’s is overkill. However, the justification is solid and the character is expected.

On Cerulean’s behavior, meh. He gave me little to go off of, but in previous DPs when he has, it was fine analysis. I still also give some credit to Casey.

As for this DP, it’s honestly still fine analysis. He’s asking good questions and exploring different theories. The only thing lacking is a solid scumread or set of reads.

Yknow I’m kinda realizing it’s hard to scumread Cerulean based on behavior. I had a (now deleted) sentence about Banana being less likely to be Earth’s teammate than Cerulean, but now I’m not sure. Cerulean’s behavior is just a tad bit better imo.

It may be more likely that Banana was hard bussing Earth, and Earth went for the play of hoping Cerulean gets mislynched so F4 is avoided. Very hard to say because I think the Earth/Cerulean connection is stronger, but Ceruelan’s behavior just looks better. Maybe the connection is a lack of connection, if that makes sense.

hm. I’m gonna say it’s a 55/45 in favor of Banana being the teammate. That’ll be difficult for tomorrow.

I have considered Whiteflame as an outside chance, but… nothing. All good analysis, questions- the reasoning is great for the most part. I do get the sense we’re on the same wavelength. 

All in all, nothing to defeat my earlier townreads on him.

Town confirmed by role. I guess he just really didn’t have much to say at the time of me scumreading him. He’s doing more now, so perhaps that was the fallacy in my reasoning from yesterday. I see you Mooz

Alright. There’s questions to be had on Cerulean and Banana, but I think Earth is the most likely culprit. The evidence is just overwhelmingly against him, if you want to read my reads.

If you need me to expand upon a point in my reads, lmk. Right now, I’m gonna make the call.

Alright, seems like this is the path we're going down at this point and I don't have much to add to what I've already posted. I won't vote just yet, but I want to get out these lingering reads.

If Earth's scum, that strongly suggests that Banana is town. Could just be them putting distance between themselves, entirely possible this is all one large gambit on their part, but that's not what I think is happening.

My read on the choice between Mharman and Cerulean is relatively weak by comparison, I just don't have as much reason to sus either of them, but I'd revisit that decision next DP at least to some degree. Cerulean's my pick between the two of them right now. I've largely been on the same page with Mharman this game (notably not the result of his just following my lead, as I was often following his early on) and I don't see his decisions as scummy so much as they are protective of the information he had for weak reasons. Cerulean by contrast has just been much more passive this game and I think the lack of interaction between his role and mine makes me sus him just a little more. It's not a lot to go off of, but I have a hard time believing that Pie has put both his role and WyIted's in this game along with mine. Don't like mod psych, but it's something I have to consider at this point.

So I told whiteflame I am basically willing to lynch earth. I am kind of hesistant only because mharman is voting earth and you know how I feel about mharman. That and I am being told by whiteflame this is mylo. There's two votes on earth, moozer and mharman, we know that moozer is town. The only reason mafia wouldn't have quickhammered this is if earth is scum, or mharman is scum. So looks like our 66% chance of finding scum is now more like a 50% chance right? I did point out the possibility that cerluean is scum and just too inactive to quick hammer, but for that to be the case I would have to be scum, which I know I am not. So while its possible earth is actually just scum here, and my result is correct and I am overthinking all this, I feel like it's all too easy....

After discussing it with whiteflame I suggested throwing out Cerluean as an option. Whiteflame mentioned that cerulean was who he thought was my partner earlier, since I've been pushing mharman, and my intentions coming into the day phase were on earth. So if I was scum logically cerulean would be my partner in this case. He also suspects earth of trying to bus cerulean here.

In both cases whiteflame seems to think cerulean is someone's scum partner, and since he thinks its between me and earth as scum and both of us are candidates to be ceruleans partner, I suggested cerulean as a good "meet in the middle" lynch. I am not going to be able to talk him into voting mharman, so that is off the table. But everyone seems to have cerulean in their POE as the partner.

So I'm throwing it out there as a last ditch effort, would either of you be willing to lynch cerulean today instead? We would need just one more person to be able to pull this off, otherwise it would be just me whiteflame and earth, and we'd be stuck 3 v 3 split. If either of you aren't willing to do this, I'm willing to just vote earth here, and theres a pretty solid chance he is just scum and I am overthinking everything. But the proposal is there. What do you think about cerulean as an alternative?

I’ve already said it’s a toss up between you and Cerulean. Why would I even chance that?

Alright, I'll just vote earth. I don't think moozer is going to change his mind. Figured I would throw it out there.

We’re lynching Earth. Hammer when ready; if you have questions, ask.

Nothing really to add. Whatever happens happens.

Hammer.

Good job town see yall tomorrow

Lock please