Game Show Mafia DP1

Author: Lunatic

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Mharman
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I’ll start with the nulls and move to the more confident reads. The less confident ones I’ll give teasers on and put the deep dives into other posts.

Austin + Moozer - Null for not having posted. I’ve read some buzz about Austin showing up online (double checked- he was online yesterday) but idgaf. I have a decent level of faith that both will show up and give something to go off of eventually. I guess, now that I type it out, we can think about if there’s an incentive to show up and say something (even something like “hi I’m busy”) brief when you pop online from Austin’s POV. 

NOTE: Decided I should expand the double check to Moozer as well. He was also online yesterday.

If I start to townread just about everyone else it will no longer be null- I generally don’t assume the scum strategy is to do nothing and win, but if I start to think the more active players are all town, I’ll have to conclude this is one of those games where scum decided they were gonna be a bunch of Luigis.

Savant - Solid town. Way too much effort to be scum, tbh. It’s a near-obsessive level. I’m not bothered. I think his reads come across as honest, since he’s scouring details that I wouldn’t even care about. I think it leads him to overanalyze a few points, but that’s a sign of towniness.

Whiteflame - Lean town. Honestly as I was typing this up I was more confident then a lean. But right now, there’s not as much to go off of as I thought. 

With regards to his interaction with Mikal, I hard townread that. It’s completely natural for him to react that way, and he did tell Mikal to fuck off (which is said to be a town tell, and I agree)- albeit in a much more polite Whiteflame-y way. The reads look natural so nothing sticks up. I guess the thing is, I thought there was more to go off of. Now that I’ve fully read through everything, meh. He still looks fine.

Although I do wonder how the presence of a safe fake claim for scum would change his scum gameplay. Even then, why soft? Cause now he’d have basically used up their fake claim by softing, when he couldve just saved everything about it for the worst case scenario.

Wylted - Hard scum. He came in and posted some fluff, and then some filler content about theme. Theme analysis isn’t inherently scummy, but it didn’t seem relevant to what was going on. It looked like posting for the sake of posting.

I did have an earlier theory about what he could be doing as scum specifically that my mind jumped to- an idea that he’s seeing if he can get away with claiming his real character. I like his speculation on certain players characters. The only time I’ve seen him do it as town is when he’s criticizing someone for being obvious asf with their softclaim- but I don’t think this is one of those cases. Not only does this look like a cheap imitation of some of his normal town behavior, it aligns with my theory that he’s trying to see if claiming his character is safe.

Although that makes me wonder if Whiteflame did just use up scum’s fake claim.

Downgrading Whiteflame to slight town.

Savant
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@whiteflame
I'm pretty surprised we had so much activity this early as well, all happened within the first 24 hours.
Yeah, I think town is off to a good start.
Mikal
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@Earth
I would prefer you full claim. We said between you and Mharm and I want others to weigh in.  I think you are the better option. 

You and Ana use death tunneling very loosely. If you ever saw me death tunnel, you would know that what a death tunnel is. This is Poe and have explained into detail why. Nothing has changed to move you from the top of the list. So I think you are the best person to lock into a claim today. At least with how it stands now. 
Savant
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@Earth
Just don't claim your role. As I said before, I think town has better roles for balance purposes.
Savant
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@Mikal
What are your thoughts on balance? I really don't want to help scum narrow down power roles, and I think there are probably a good number to compensate for the initial numbers disadvantage.
Moozer325
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So sorry for not being active at the start of the game, I was camping this weekend. Reading the DP now, I’ll be much more active today and tomorrow to make up for it.

Mharman
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Back to Wylted

I felt his vote on Moozer was opportunistic. Sure, I had a reason, but that doesn’t mean he needed to join in.

And finally let’s talk about what I’m NOT seeing from Wylted. Behavioral thoughts, not even a blurb about it. In past town games of his, I’ve seen him give quick thoughts on small things about other behavior- sometimes it seems like he’s trying to insta-solve, other times it’s just reaction baiting. None of that to speak of here.
Mikal
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@Savant
As you mentioned odds are likely rough but the balance is town probably has very strong roles. If it’s 2 v 9, we are in better shape. If it’s 3v8 mafia is the favorite. Not considering tps.  Assuming why you think this, is much the same as i do. That being said we have to lynch on odd 

So not taking a stance is not the answer. Someone will claim when we pick to lynch them. So my target is still earth. We have to get a claim and will get a claim because we have to shoot. I’m still more comfortable with him than Mharm 

By nature of needing to shoot. Someone is going to claim regardless. That’s why I want everyone to weigh in because I’m pretty sold on my choice. 

Mikal
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With moozer back I say let’s hold on earth or Mharm. Want to see what he says then pick after he responds. Unless Austin shows up and then we hold longer.  
Mharman
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I did have an earlier theory about what he could be doing as scum specifically that my mind jumped to- an idea that he’s seeing if he can get away with claiming his real character. I like his speculation on certain players characters. The only time I’ve seen him do it as town is when he’s criticizing someone for being obvious asf with their softclaim- but I don’t think this is one of those cases. Not only does this look like a cheap imitation of some of his normal town behavior, it aligns with my theory that he’s trying to see if claiming his character is safe.
Btw this theory doesn’t even have to be true, it could all just be posting for the sake of it from Wylted
Mikal
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This is why I can’t read Mharm. It’s like he took everyone else’s reads and packaged them and spat them out. He picked the ones he liked but all the reads are heavily relying on information that others have pointed out. 

Could be because he’s one of the lash to post in depth and it just aligns but I think this tends to happen normally. 

Mharman
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@Mikal
? I had some original thoughts 
Mharman
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Everyone is harder to read. Working on it
Mharman
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Everyone else*
Mikal
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@Mharman
Not saying you aren’t trying and I appreciate the effort. It’s just hard for me to read you 

The white flame post seems to largely pull from some of my reads 

As well as saying savant posts a lot and effort 

Wylted - everyone is scum reading him but me and I can buy the logic I still don’t think he comes out antagonizing me out the game as scum, knowing I will death tunnel. 


So it’s like yeah. The effort is admirable but it’s hard to decipher if it’s town or you pulling from other reads as scum and trying to copy a bit. That being said the activity is wonderful and significantly better than I remember you doing before. So I applaud you. 
Mikal
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@Earth
Apologies if it seems like I’m bullying you. Cus I’m not. I just honestly think you are the best choice from Poe. That does not mean things won’t change my mind. Just that nothing has changed my mind yet. 
Mharman
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@Mikal
I did have a streak of constantly getting replaced out for a while… I think that was early DART years

Mharman
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Well now that I’m less comfortable with my read on Whiteflame, he does go into the deep dive category. Although I’m pretty sure the thoughts on him I’ve already typed out count as a deep dive.

I guess my conclusion here is that he looks naturally town, but I don’t have enough to say he’s certainly. A few things I am wondering/paranoid? about, but if I had a gun to my head, pressuring me to make a decision, I’d say he’s town.

Moving on.
WyIted
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@Mharman
Wylted - Hard scum. He came in and posted some fluff, and then some filler content about theme. Theme analysis isn’t inherently scummy, but it didn’t seem relevant to what was going on. It looked like posting for the sake of posting.
I am okay with the leaning scum reads given that only scum knows who scum are but this is obviously getting silly. I literally asked to be replaced two games ago because of my fading interest in the site and am sticking around just to keep games running. 

Theme analysis when it's aimed at scum hunting is helpful. I am sorry that it made me target you because you hinted you were cash cab, but if it wasn't you and somebody else didn't fit my theory than it would be them targeted. 

As for the fluff I literally get criticized for it every DP1 and I am literally doing it less this game because activity seems good and not like I need to force it. Now stop being dumb and get a vote on Moozer so we can get a claim and not have to worry about him at LYLO. 

For fucks sakes nigga.
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@Moozer325
You need to full claim bro, especially being this inactive
Mharman
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Banana

So, Banana usually gives a small piece of information about her PM at the start of games, oftentimes an unnecessary detail. The  “14 messages” thing in Diary Mafia, and last game’s mention of F-16 come to mind. In the past she has also just full claimed at the start if she thinks her role is normally a scum role.

This DP, she did give that her character is after 2000, for when the show launched. It’s not necessarily the same because it’s not specific- but it somewhat follows what she’s been doing. I guess my question here is, does she even HAVE to give out little pieces like that at the start of every games? Cause I’m not super convinced it’s reasonable to sus her if that’s lacking.

I will say that willingly limiting her own fake claim is a bad idea of she’s scum- unless she’s planning using the freebie Lunatic gave them? Perhaps that explains Wylted’s behavior-instead of a link to Whiteflame.

About to the incentives: There is an incentive to attempt to mirror her last town play, and I did cite her town tell last game, so she should know it exists. So the fact that is isn’t close enough to her meta is what bothers me- there’s a difference between mentioning something specific to your role, and giving general information that can be used to sort people. 

Of course the point of the post was to do something we’ve been doing at the start of every game, and tbh it’s kinda harmless to town. I’m not gonna sus it based on the fact that it came unprompted. It certainly can be used for towncred. The incentives to do this vary, but all in all, I would say the incentives are more negative for scum, because it requires either limiting your fake claim in the future, or having to draw a little information from your safe claim (which I personally wouldn’t do unless I planned on using it in the future- seems like quite the selfish play as scum). 

What does bother me however, is the fact that when she does jump in, it’s targeted at Mikal.

I’ll give a slight town for now because it looks naturally townie, but overall little that helps me here.

I think I want to see her reads.
Mharman
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@iamanabanana
So, outside of Mikal, what are your thoughts on everyone else?
Mharman
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I guess you can include Mikal
WyIted
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@Mharman
And finally let’s talk about what I’m NOT seeing from Wylted. Behavioral thoughts, not even a blurb about it. In past town games of his, I’ve seen him give quick thoughts on small things about other behavior- sometimes it seems like he’s trying to insta-solve, other times it’s just reaction baiting. None of that to speak of here.
Fair enough. My town list is 

Mikal- because he would cry like a bitch and refuse to play if he was scum

Savant- the effort now is to the level of just being insane enough that I feel he would t dare replicate it as scum

Anabanana- willing to get information out early and get the game rolling

I work better by forming a solid town block and lynching based on POW. I have no strong scum reads yet but if forced to choose a lynch target I think Moozer and Austin are perhaps the biggest liability  they will be hard to read when barely active and in LYLO they will be problems. 

Whiteflame may be a slight town lean. I mean I think he might honestly take more shit as scum. So the pushback feels genuine. 
.

whiteflame
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@Mharman
@Moozer325
@Moozer

It's good that you've joined the game and I hope you had a good camping trip. I will want to get some specific thoughts from you as well, though you should expect to be pushed for your claim at this point. We can cross that bridge when you've had a chance to post again and provide some thoughts on the DP, which I know is a lot to digest right now.

@Mharman

I appreciate the detailed reads so far. Haven't gotten much of a chance yet to read through everything (mainly just skimming at this point since I don't have a lot of time), but given Moozer's in the game now, I'm going to:

Unvote

We can come back to this later.
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@WyIted
Fluff/theme stuff is fine, by big problem is that it’s all we got from you. Not even a blurb about others’ behavior.
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@WyIted
Just saw it
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@WyIted
Now stop being dumb and get a vote on Moozer so we can get a claim and not have to worry about him at LYLO. 
I’ll agree there’s utility in this… I believe my vote is still on him.

I’m not sure if I want to unvote or not. For now, I think I’ll just let the situation play out
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@Mharman
Why would you consider unvoting, everyone should be on board to lock him, and Austin down.
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@WyIted
Because I want to see who would join the wagon if I left it, and what their reasons are