Game Show Mafia DP1

Author: Lunatic

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Savant
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I also have an alternative strategy for claiming shows: everyone does it at once. We all find an online clock, paste our shows in the thread, and at the exact same second (as it strikes 7 oclock EST, for example), we hit enter, submitting our characters to the thread. Scum have no time to look for competing claims to see what's taken.
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*shows, not characters
Mikal
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@Savant
I would be okay with this but you will never in a million years get this coordination on this site lol 
Mharman
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@Savant
Don’t overcomplicated it lol. Just push claims out of people we sus… some people want to keep their shows a secret
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@Savant
I also have an alternative strategy for claiming shows: everyone does it at once. We all find an online clock, paste our shows in the thread, and at the exact same second (as it strikes 7 oclock EST, for example), we hit enter, submitting our characters to the thread. Scum have no time to look for competing claims to see what's taken.
That feels like an example of following the letter of the law while completely ignoring the spirit of it. I'm against it for that reason alone.
Mikal
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@ILikePie5
Sorry post #57. Was re reading and found it. Thought it was after page 3
Earth
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I feel like we can at least confirm a few people by doing what Savant suggested. Its a pretty good idea. I get the coordination is an issue, but like, can we try?

Earth
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@Lunatic
Time to use ChatGPT, got it.
Savant
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One thing I want to note really quick. 3 scum vs 8 town is worse odds for town compared to a 9v2 setup. To achieve balance, I suspect that town roles are overall more powerful than scum roles, and we should therefore force role claims very sparingly. Hypocrite since I want to force a claim out of WF, I know, but that's very much the exception and not the rule in this setup.
Savant
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@Lunatic
I also have an alternative strategy for claiming shows: everyone does it at once. We all find an online clock, paste our shows in the thread, and at the exact same second (as it strikes 7 oclock EST, for example), we hit enter, submitting our characters to the thread. Scum have no time to look for competing claims to see what's taken.
Does this violate the spirit of the rules? If it does, I'll forget it.
Mikal
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@Savant
It doesn’t violate anything. It’s meta in live games. It’s just nearly impossible to do it in forums. 
Lunatic
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@Savant
Does this violate the spirit of the rules? If it does, I'll forget it.
This isn’t against the rules 
Savant
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@Mikal
It doesn’t violate anything.
Sounds good. I suggest we go with Earth's plan and ask WF to give his full claim at the same time Moozer and Austin give their shows.
Lunatic
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Trivia question will go live in exactly one hour.
Mikal
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@Savant
I’m about to be home and I want to read through this again. I’m heavily contemplating on whiteflame. I wanted to put pressure on him to see his response and I can’t decipher whether it’s scummy or genuine annoyance. He has disappeared a bit. 

I almost would rather pressure earth or bananna. I think we get more out of them but I want to read over everything before I decide. 

Surprised no one else sees value in pressuring earth. 
Savant
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@Mikal
Kind of want your instinct on this. Here's my current read on whiteflame:

whiteflame
  • Scum Lean (59%)
  • Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • Playing as Scum: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • #16 - SL - With WF it’s always difficult to tell, but starting the game with something unrelated to this particular game seems more aimed at gaining town cred through camaraderie.
  • #17, #21, #23 - SL - I understand WF’s frustration here, I really do, but their reasons for refusing Mikal aren’t framed from a game strategy perspective. The case could be made that Mikal’s strategy does work for reading WF, and WF only challenges it out of personal distaste.
  • #28 - SL - After being pressured, I think this post could be made to change the subject, which WF can get away with because of Mikal’s brash demeanor, and the formalities beside the vote could be meant to ensure the vote isn’t met with hostility. I think town would be more inclined to pressure other players, while scum would be more inclined to befriend them
  • #32 - TL - WF complimenting Mikal’s strategy like this actually strikes me as more towny than scummy. It’s WF, and he could easily be thinking that giving credence to Mikal here is the towny move; however, I think there were alternative responses that could have been more strategic for scum and planted bigger seeds for suspecting Mikal
  • #75 - TL - The frustration seems towny, and it indicates to me that the previous frustration was likely genuine as well, not solely to avoid pressure.
  • #106 - SL - Feels a bit like WF is planting seeds for suspicion on Mikal without outright saying it or giving reads. Also when responding to a call for engagement, this post seems like it throws suspicion toward the most convenient player rather than analyzing the game as a whole and really scum hunting.
  • #109, #115 - SL - I think a town player would be more likely to start making progress from what they have. Waiting for claims and for inactives to post (not even the first to note inactive players) could be a convenient way to test the waters.
Savant
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@Mikal
Like what do you think about my reads on specific posts and such?
Savant
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Also 59% is the odds of him being town, still think that's more likely than not.
Mikal
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@Savant
Give me 5 and I’ll make a pretty in depth post 
Earth
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Not liking post #155 from Casey.
Savant
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@Earth
Seems genuine to me. I've definitely seen that mindset from town.
Earth
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@Savant
Sounds good. I suggest we go with Earth's plan and ask WF to give his full claim at the same time Moozer and Austin give their shows.
Uh, when did I suggest that?
Earth
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I still like it though. 
Savant
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@Earth
Uh, when did I suggest that?
You suggested confirming a few people instead of everyone. The rest was my plan. Hence the "and."
Lunatic
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Official Vote Count:

Earth- 1/6- Mikal
Austin- 2/6- Whiteflame, savant
Moozer- 2/6- Mharman, Wylted 

35 minutes til trivia

Savant
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@Lunatic
Does the time we submit the answer matter? Can we change it after we already submitted?
Mikal
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Okay back around my computer. Will touch on a few points. 

1) Savant 

It's hard for me to get a solid read on you because I don’t know enough about your experience. Your post style, linking and pointing to specific issues, reminds me of the meta on MU or MS. I recall you played in the WC, which likely gave you some experience with gut reads and behavior analysis. This site utilizes those far less than the other 2 especially with regards to theory and scumhunting tactics. Logically, you're doing what town should be doing: analyzing intentions, following through on reads, and avoiding fluff.  I’m just unsure if you’d do all this as scum, depending on your skill level. Overall, I appreciate the effort and depth in your posts. I’m leaning town for now, unless POE or new info suggests otherwise. 

TL;DR: You're playing like town, but I’m unsure how much to credit that due to unknown skill level.

2) White Flame


This is where I get stuck on White Flame. I was pressuring intentionally, and his response feels like genuine frustration, like a “not this shit again” reaction. That kind of emotion reads as town to me. If he were scum, I think he’d be more controlled and less visibly annoyed. The key question is: is he frustrated because he's being unfairly targeted, or because he got caught? My gut says it’s the former.


He’s tossing breadcrumbs, but that’s not necessarily scummy. It could be bait, distraction, or just uncertainty since we haven’t played in years. Paired with his frustration, it does make sense. 


Possible Pressure:

Banana – I still believe, and haven’t changed my mind, that volunteering information unprompted looks like an attempt to farm towncred. Softing is fine, but doing it so willingly just pings me wrong. 
Earth – Insightful reads are tough to get from him. From past experience and as Pie’s pointed out, he tends to lurk and stay inactive. I’ve yet to see him take a strong stance on anything.
Moozer – No Activity 
Austin - No Activity 


Casey - As soon as people started calling him/her out, she was immediately responsive. It seemed like within minutes. This typically but not always is a very plausible sign of scum lurking. I would almost say borderline scum slip with how fast the responded. 


This is after a very long period of inactivity 


I could go person by person, but I think that’s a waste of time. It’s more effective to narrow down the oddities and focus on the best targets based on current info. The ones above are where I’m at right now. After rereading WhiteFlame’s posts, I still don’t lean town, but I don’t really lean scum either, he remains mostly null. I’m more comfortable applying pressure to the others for now as I think they will actively be a detriment to the game if not pressured. 

I can give specific reads if needed but I think that summarizes the most important notes. I will post my lynch order below. I will categorize and lynch order is from top to bottom. 




🔴 Pressure 
  1. Earth 
  2. Banana
  3. Austin
  4. Moozer
  5. Casey
🟡 Null 
  1. Whiteflame
  2. Mharm
🟢 Town Lean 
  1. Pie
  2. Wylted
  3. Savant

Lunatic
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@Savant
Does the time we submit the answer matter? Can we change it after we already submitted?
In the case that multiple people got the answer right, I will give the role to whoever answered first. However, you cannot change your answer, so it could be recommended to take your time. 
Earth
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@Mikal
Why is Casey under Austin and Moozer?
Savant
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@Mikal
Your post style, linking and pointing to specific issues, reminds me of the meta on MU or MS.
Analyzing every single post isn't how most people played on MU. It's how I wish I'd played after the match was over. Though DART moving slower does make it a bit easier.