Game Show Mafia DP1

Author: Lunatic

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AustinL0926
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Mikal's sudden realization that Earth lynch is hard because scum might not be helping is extremely towny, scum struggle to fake that perspective of a town wondering what a hypothetical scumteam would be doing; just reads as a moment of genuine solving. 

Whiteflame's read on banana is pretty good and maybe sheepable, I had the exact same worry about banana not mentioning my role claim; don't want to jump to conclusions yet, but I remember her being a player who cares more about mechanics.
AustinL0926
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Casey saying that self-analysis is NAI for me only reaffirms my townread on them, I feel like scum Casey would be more opportunistic or try and encourage/go along with banana already being hesitant on me. Shows a genuine desire to solve.

Right now I'm confident in Savant/Mikal/Casey being town. I'm pretty sure WF is town off meta. Not sure about Earth but his response to pressure didn't seem terrible and his claim makes sense. Moozer and banana are trending around null to me (if I was being fully honest, banana might be a bit below null, but I feel bad scumreading players who I haven't had the chance to fully read yet)

Should still be a few players I haven't read, let me check.
AustinL0926
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oh I forgot, Wylted is a townlean, I liked the immediate pressure he put on me when I came in, felt like he was trying to solve me in good faith. Also had some good posts early on, nothing amazing though so that's why it's just a lean.
Casey_Risk
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@whiteflame
On Mikal, I've seen the argument that he could be trying to draw attention to a variety of "easier" targets to lynch, which is something we've seen scum use as a tactic before. If he's doing that, then he's doing a pretty slap-dash job of it, which doesn't comport with the attention he's putting into his reads. I'd say it's more likely that, if he is scum, he's drawing attention a set of players in the hopes that he can keep drawing lynches to that pool and away from others. I can understand that take-away from his posts so far, I just can't say that's my read. If anything, he's a little too dedicated to a couple of specific lynches that aren't gaining traction. I don't fully agree with his takes, but from someone who just hasn't been in this community for a while, I understand them and they read as townie to me.
Honestly? Yeah, I can see this argument. I've gone back and forth on Mikal in my mind, but I do think the way he responded to me felt towny - a little bit frustrated, perhaps, but also clearly explaining his reasoning in a way that made sense to me. 

The only thing that still kind of bothers me is that it still feels like he put a lot of focus on Austin and Moozer when the DP was still fairly young, enough that I felt like calling them inactive was a bit premature. But I can see a world where he does this as town, and it doesn't feel too implausible to me.

In any case, I got Mikal to respond to what I wanted him to respond to, and it has at least slightly improved my perception of him. I think it's clear that he's not going to be the lynch today regardless, so I will:

Unvote
AustinL0926
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ok I just need reads on Mharman and Pie.

Also, Casey, since you're around, is there anything you think I should prioritize looking into? I'm at school rn, don't have a ton of time but I am trying to catch up as best as I can.
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@whiteflame
As for Banana, I think she mostly has some good reads this game, but... yeah, there are some surprising gaps and misreads. Maybe that's just a matter of the DP being so long and her having so much to synthesize, maybe it's the fact that I'm one of her scumreads and I just don't understand her reasoning against me. [...] It doesn't really help that a number of Banana's lower reads don't feel fleshed out. The read on Austin doesn't mention his character and role claim, the read on WyIted seems vague and doesn't really engage with anything other than his speculation, and the read on Moozer she admits is based entirely on his being defensive of her rather than any specific behavior on his part.
I get what you're saying here, 100%, and I don't think this is an unreasonable take. That being said, I'm not as convinced by this line of reasoning for the same reason I brought up earlier: Banana often uses this sort of logic as town. In The Russian Mafia in particular, her defense of That2 had pretty much nothing to do with That2's own behavior and everything to do with everyone else's behavior around her wagon. Even as the mod watching that game, I thought this was really bad logic, but it was sincere.

I dunno, I just kind of feel like if Banana was scum, it would be a bit more obvious? In the one game she played before where she was scum, it became evident to me pretty soon after she received even a small amount of pressure. But maybe she's improved quickly. I can believe that and am not totally discounting that possibility. I just don't think it's the most likely.
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@AustinL0926
Also, Casey, since you're around, is there anything you think I should prioritize looking into? I'm at school rn, don't have a ton of time but I am trying to catch up as best as I can.
Good question. Do you think #534 by Moozer is actually a scumslip like Pie suggested? At first I wasn't really sure, but then he made that post where he said, "Besides, I was part of the four, so I wouldn't call myself a mislynch." Which is just a weird statement? I don't know what he meant by that.

I can see it being nothing, but I'm also having a hard time finding a reason to townread him. What do you think?
Casey_Risk
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There's a player here whose play I've been a little bit disappointed in. I wonder if everyone knows who I'm talking about.
AustinL0926
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@Casey_Risk
Good question. Do you think #534 by Moozer is actually a scumslip like Pie suggested? At first I wasn't really sure, but then he made that post where he said, "Besides, I was part of the four, so I wouldn't call myself a mislynch." Which is just a weird statement? I don't know what he meant by that.

I can see it being nothing, but I'm also having a hard time finding a reason to townread him. What do you think?
The phrasing is definitely weird - particularly how he says they're "clear mislynch targets", which implies that Mikal is pushing incorrectly. I read his posts after that though, however, and I think his perspective makes sense - basically, he's broadly saying pushing inactives is scummy. I don't really agree with that, but given how often he gets pushed in his town games for being inactive, I can see him believing in that. 

The post after that doesn't mean much to me, people get hung up on phrasing stuff like that when I find perspective and motivation a lot more important; consider, if that's a scumslip from Moozer, what motivated the scumslip? The idea that, as he's making that post, he is saying he's a correct lynch? It's not out of the realm of possibility, but when most people are town out of pure probability, I'm not giving much credence to that being a scum mistake as opposed to a regular mistake.

That being said, after going through his posts, I don't have a strong read on him in either direction. He's posting okay, but it mostly seems like pretty neutral takes/commentary. I haven't played with Moozer in a while so I'm not sure how much of it is style indicative as opposed to alignment indicative, but yeah, that's roughly where I'm at.
Mikal
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@Casey_Risk
It’s a thought. If all this is town va town bickering. They have very little incentive to give opinions or interject and there has not been a strong enough wagon for anyone to ride on. That thought is actively bothering me now. 

I can’t look but who has largely been offering reads to placate people or posting null reads?
AustinL0926
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I briefly read through Pie btw, idk, it seems to fit my memory of aggressive town Pie but I also have a pretty bad track record of reading Pie so not super confident nor did I put much effort into reading there.

Checking Mharman now.
Mikal
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Okay boys and girls. We need to start focusing in on a target. 10 am tomorrow the day phase ends. That’s going to be right as I’m waking up and I don’t want to rush during work trying to solve the game. We need this locked in before midnight so we can sleep and not be rushing to solve shit tomorrow morning. 

I am going to think some during work and I’m still contemplating the idea earth is being left alive intentionally. We need to build a Poe. 


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@Mikal
I don't like any of our options right now, but if I had a gun to my head, my PoE pretty much comes down to Earth. Austin's participation makes me at least null read him, and I don't scum-read you enough to want to push a lynch on you, which I would never get anyways.
whiteflame
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@AustinL0926
Forgot to mention Austin earlier. Don't have much basis for reading him behaviorally yet, but with that claim, he's not going to be my choice for a lynch this DP. Might be some shenanigans to it, but we'll have to sort that out later. As has been mentioned, including by him, the Gladiator role isn't a given as town so even if he uses it, we shouldn't automatically assume he's town confirmed (even if that's a strong correlation).
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@Casey_Risk
Whiteflame's read on banana is pretty good and maybe sheepable, I had the exact same worry about banana not mentioning my role claim; don't want to jump to conclusions yet, but I remember her being a player who cares more about mechanics.
@Austin Fair point, though I'm definitely not sold on her as scum yet. I still don't think she starts off the DP as she did with a softclaim as scum, though it's not like it narrows the window of her claims too much. I'm still torn.

I get what you're saying here, 100%, and I don't think this is an unreasonable take. That being said, I'm not as convinced by this line of reasoning for the same reason I brought up earlier: Banana often uses this sort of logic as town. In The Russian Mafia in particular, her defense of That2 had pretty much nothing to do with That2's own behavior and everything to do with everyone else's behavior around her wagon. Even as the mod watching that game, I thought this was really bad logic, but it was sincere.

I dunno, I just kind of feel like if Banana was scum, it would be a bit more obvious? In the one game she played before where she was scum, it became evident to me pretty soon after she received even a small amount of pressure. But maybe she's improved quickly. I can believe that and am not totally discounting that possibility. I just don't think it's the most likely.
@Casey I'm still trying to work through how I'm perceiving her reads. It's not so much what type of logic she uses as the inconsistency of its application. Could be that you're right about this, she certainly wasn't good at hiding her scumminess in our game as scum together, just not sure how much I want to rely on a single game's experience. Most of my consideration is directed at her previous town behavior since we have a consistent track record there.
whiteflame
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@Casey_Risk
There's a player here whose play I've been a little bit disappointed in. I wonder if everyone knows who I'm talking about.
Both Mharman and WyIted could fit that bill. I'm used to seeing the former really break things down and find small tells that indicate plausible scum. He also tends to be more interactive in the way he plays when he gets going, and I've mostly seen him on the sidelines here. As for WyIted, he started off the DP with some theme analysis, but hasn't contributed as much since then. He's spoken up, but with very little substance. 

ILikePie5
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@whiteflame
@Mikal
@Savant
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
Moozer defends a scum slip with another scum slip...

I mean irony aside, I'm not sure how AI this actually is. Pie reads a lot into wording like this and is usually wrong (though I think it's towny for Pie to be paying this much attention.)
It’s a Freudian slip. Moozer shouldn’t know that everyone else is a mislynch but he should know that he is a mislynch 
ILikePie5
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@Mikal
Okay I may regret this but I feel like it’s important. I’m a classic show. 

If that also helps while I’m curious about his claim. Add that to his behavior it may help you see why I’m “tunneling” 
That doesn’t tell me anything tbh
AustinL0926
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@ILikePie5
It’s a Freudian slip. Moozer shouldn’t know that everyone else is a mislynch but he should know that he is a mislynch 
Or it's an phrasing mistake. Moozer can be scum, but this isn't a reason to be burying him.

///

Anyway, skimmed through Mharman's posts, it's decent enough so I probs wouldn't vote for him today, liked his perspective in regard to Mikal/Earth.
Mikal
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@ILikePie5
I’ll visit this again in later day phases 
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Debating if I say it now just in case I get yeeted but it prob comes out naturally. 

Fuck it
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@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
Also just realized I forgot to claim my character (I was in a rush sorry), my character is Family Feud, because it's a gameshow that consists of two families directly competing against each other.

Seems like a pretty bad justification because there are lots of 1v1 gameshows, but that's just what Luna gave me so eh.
Actually, it’s a great justification. Genius application Lunatic if you created it or Austin if your created it as scum.
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When I think of shows I think of more classic shows. My show is classic. Survivor is certainly new and I am not sure I buy into a certain year split but I do wonder based on my show if it’s older shows vs newer or something like that 


Survivor is not what I think of when I think of a game show. at least not in a traditional sense 

I don’t want to get bogged down on this and largely have not considered it with my reads on earth and I think more info will come out as other characters come out which will validate  or invalidate that thought . 
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@Mharman
I don’t hate an earth lynch if there’s no better target but I gotta think the incentives for claiming something like that as scum are low…. The real question I’m grappling with is if Linatic would ever put that in a setup

I actually think he would. 8-3 is unbalanced and Luna said both sides are underpowered. A Soldier imo makes sense in the setup, but I’m not Luna. Also the whole talk about a Bus Driver/GF I think is distracting. If both sides are underpowered, they’re probably not going to have that
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@AustinL0926
I need to go study, I'll be back in like 45 minutes. If anyone is around, please give a direction for me to explore, it can be a player, a particular section of the game, a specific interaction, etc, but I really need something to bite on to.
Explore Earth’s posts in isolation. I’m curious to hear your thoughts 
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@Mikal
I just had an epiphany as I was typing that.  What if earth is town and scum are not pushing or jumping on the lynch because he is an easy Mislynch?
I think everyone here besides me is fine with Earth being the lynch today, so are you calling me out specifically or people who “acting” wishy washy behind the scenes
Casey_Risk
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@whiteflame
Both Mharman and WyIted could fit that bill. I'm used to seeing the former really break things down and find small tells that indicate plausible scum. He also tends to be more interactive in the way he plays when he gets going, and I've mostly seen him on the sidelines here.
It was indeed Mharman. I was going to wait for him to show up to see how he responded to me, but we have less than 24 hours left at this point and we need to move towards a lynch. I think we should consider Mharman, largely for the reasons that you just stated. He's been on the sidelines, his reads are unremarkable and have progressed little, and if Mikal's theory about scum trying to just let the Earth lynch happen is true, it would seem to implicate him.

It would also implicate Wylted, who I'm not super happy with. The one thing I've liked about his behavior was when he came up with that possible theme split early on - that felt fairly genuine to me. But I haven't seen anything else from him that I've liked. 

Between Mharman and Wylted however, Wylted has at least given me something to townread him, however small. Mharman hasn't. I want him to weigh in more. 

VTL Mharman 
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@Mharman
Tagging you
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@Casey_Risk
Okay, so Austin is probably town. Gladiator is rarely a scum role, though I did put a scum Gladiator in my last 3v8 game. But I also added in the "Super Governor" that was specifically meant to help balance against it. (I was wondering if the town would realize that Bullish's role suggested that he and Cerulean were not on the same team, but that never happened.) I will say that if anyone else would make a Gladiator mafia, it would probably be Lunatic. But for now, Austin feels town behaviorally. Strong gut read. 
I agree with this assessment
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@Mikal
Okay boys and girls. We need to start focusing in on a target. 10 am tomorrow the day phase ends. That’s going to be right as I’m waking up and I don’t want to rush during work trying to solve the game. We need this locked in before midnight so we can sleep and not be rushing to solve shit tomorrow morning. 

I am going to think some during work and I’m still contemplating the idea earth is being left alive intentionally. We need to build a Poe. 
Fair point. My strong town block is:

Casey
Savant

Weaker townreads that I'd be unwilling to lynch this DP:

Mikal
Pie
Austin

Null to scum reads (scum at bottom):

Moozer
Banana
Earth
Mharman
WyIted

So those five are my PoE and none are strong reads. I'm willing to at least give Moozer the opportunity to confirm himself (he has said he can confirm himself and I'm not getting a strong enough reason to push him for the perceived slip - I'm good with revisiting this next DP). I can understand pushing Banana or Earth at this stage, but I'm not sold on either. Mharman looks pretty good when he's actively posting, but I haven't seen enough to believe he's town, nor have I really seen the kind of scumhunting I normally expect from him, just some good analysis. As for WyIted, I don't like how his posting has turned to fluff, and not the usual fluff I'd expect from him. I worry that both of these reads are coming from difficulties keeping up with the DP rather than any actual tells from their play (that holds true for Banana as well), but that's where I'm at right now.