Game Show Mafia DP2

Author: Lunatic

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#61
ILikePie5
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@Savant
There's a chance scum would fake the use of a cop if they won, but I think this still increases Earth's odds of being town.
It’s actually interesting. We have a mod confirmed townie. Only 8 people submitted an answer out of 9. There is no way scum waived an answer. So that last person has to be a townie.
#62
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@ILikePie5
Did everyone submit a role name last DP?
I did, I submitted daycop because I didn't think sensor was a daytime role.

Also, in response to your question to me earlier, I already fullclaimed, I'm family Feud which is before 2000.
#63
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@AustinL0926
This mathematically makes it impossible for scum to manipulate the vote to a different result than what town agrees to.

Thoughts?
I agree with this strategy.
#64
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@AustinL0926
I’m not sure Wylted’s role is all that powerful, just annoying. Town can circumvent by just having everyone say who they voted for. Only really threatening in combination with the 1x politician, and that’s for mind games that help town figure stuff out.

For example they could target a townie but based on counting who’s claimed to be voting for who, we would know who they’re targeting. Scum could use that to try a fake being the target to get themselves townread, but it comes at the cost attracting attention to themselves when town knows they could just be using it for cred.

IMO they can only really use it to try and get away with a quicker lynch than normal if a few townies misvote, making a triple vote hammer an option.

But we could just get around that by agreeing not to until we have enough people supporting a lynch to vote it in.

Still, we don’t know if scum got the question right, so we can periodically check ourselves for that shit… although I guess it depends on how the politician works… I haven’t asked Linatic and I’m not sure if he’ll answer me

Back to the point, the incentive to refrain from voting wylted is nonexistent… also consider the reason why scum buses in the first place: to appear unpaired. Even if wylted’s role was useful, it does not mean scum won’t just bus him. The towncred is more important for them 

This doesn’t mean that scum absolutely voted for Wylted, it just means you shouldn’t ignore the possibility of one or both being on Wylted’s wagon
#65
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@AustinL0926
I did, I submitted daycop because I didn't think sensor was a daytime role.

Also, in response to your question to me earlier, I already fullclaimed, I'm family Feud which is before 2000.
Oh ya you did. Brain fart.
#66
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@Earth
@ILikePie5
@Mikal
@AustinL0926
@Moozer325
Made a few significant updates, but won't post the whole reads list again so soon.

Current reads from towniest to scummiest with probability of being town included:

Moozer325 (93.5%)
AustinL0926 (95%)
iLikePie5 (80.5%)
Mikal (78%)
Earth (77%)
Mharman (65.5%)
whiteflame (61.5%)
iamabanana (59%)

Reasons for bottom 3:

Mharman
  • Scum Lean (65.5%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • #60, #61 - TL - Strategizing that doesn’t give off any red flags. There’s a question posed to Pie that could be manipulative but seems more like an attempt to get a read, and I like that. Don’t know that scum would have thought to do that.
  • #105 - T - The read on Mikal seems genuine. I have a hard time seeing scum suspect someone and then give a reason why they actually might not be suspicious with zero pushback.
  • #143, #144, #145 - TL - More questions that seem like they’re coming from a towny perspective, I don’t think scum Mharman would pretend not to know if scum have questions just to get town read.
  • #291, #301, #310 - TL - If Mharman is scum here, then the strategy is probably to pursue a WyIted lynch or Pie lynch by throwing out seeds. Or allow Earth to be lynched by not defending him. But he defends inactives decently and defends the town core, so his thoughts seem more likely from genuine town trying to catch up and get thoughts out.
  • #318 - TL - Mharman going back and forth on WF seems genuine. Idk if scum would be willing to seem inconsistent like this.
  • #321 - SL - This post is pretty verbose, and rambling a bit is often a scum tell. Also could be planting potential seeds for a lynch without committing.
  • #799, #831, #886 - TL - Town reads WyIted early on, might have been trying to avoid a hammer on him but still worth a slight town read
  • #885 - SL - Waiting to hammer on scum while claiming he might is suspicious. And since WyIted wanted to post notes, it’s possible they decided that notes from Mharman would look less suspect.
whiteflame
  • Scum Lean (61.5%)
  • Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • Playing as Scum: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • #16 - SL - With WF it’s always difficult to tell, but starting the game with something unrelated to this particular game seems more aimed at gaining town cred through camaraderie.
  • #17, #21, #23 - SL - I understand WF’s frustration here, I really do, but their reasons for refusing Mikal aren’t framed from a game strategy perspective. The case could be made that Mikal’s strategy does work for reading WF, and WF only challenges it out of personal distaste. Casey is probably right that this isn’t that significant, so the lean is very slight.
  • #28 - SL - After being pressured, I think this post could be made to change the subject, which WF can get away with because of Mikal’s brash demeanor, and the formalities beside the vote could be meant to ensure the vote isn’t met with hostility. I think town would be more inclined to pressure other players, while scum would be more inclined to befriend them
  • #32 - TL - WF complimenting Mikal’s strategy like this actually strikes me as more towny than scummy. It’s WF, and he could easily be thinking that giving credence to Mikal here is the towny move; however, I think there were alternative responses that could have been more strategic for scum and planted bigger seeds for suspecting Mikal
  • #75 - TL - The frustration seems towny, and it indicates to me that the previous frustration was likely genuine as well, not solely to avoid pressure.
  • #106 - SL - Feels a bit like WF is planting seeds for suspicion on Mikal without outright saying it or giving reads. Also when responding to a call for engagement, this post seems like it throws suspicion toward the most convenient player rather than analyzing the game as a whole and really scum hunting.
  • #109, #115 - SL - I think a town player would be more likely to start making progress from what they have. Waiting for claims and for inactives to post (not even the first to note inactive players) could be a convenient way to test the waters.
  • #234 - TL - I’m seeing a good amount of effort here put into explaining the “why” behind his reads, and all of it seems fairly logical from a town perspective. I agree with him here more than I disagree with him, and I don’t see any opportunistic scum reads or possibly partnered town reads sticking out.
  • #241 - TL - Agree on Casey being a top town read. See where WF is coming from on Mikal’s behavior, and if WF is town, then it makes sense for there to be no clear scum reads atm. Maybe I’m giving too much credit based off of agreement, and I do think scum WF would acknowledge strong town reads, but the lack of apparent agenda here is a green flag.
  • #564 - SL - Decent enough, I guess, but WF tends to have mostly accurate reads as either alignment. Compared to the effort a lot of other players are putting in, I barely see anything new here. I guess I’d just expect more being added to the discussion if WF is town.
  • #627 - TL - Ok, this mitigates my concern that WF didn’t have any super impactful reads to move the game forward.
  • #660 - TL - More of the WF I’m used to with the analysis, which partially mitigates my concern that he’s acting particularly scummy today.
  • #664 - TL - Starting a train like this leans towny, I don’t think WF really needed to do this to avoid being lynched.
  • #811 - SL - Given that WyIted probably didn’t use a fake claim, it’s likely that WF hinted at the fake claim for his role and that WyIted was willing to die because the alternative on the chopping block was his partner.
iamabanana
  • Scum Lean (59%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • Playing as Scum: BBdp1, BBdp2
  • #7 - TL - Posting early draws attention, and I don’t think scum would be inclined to do so without a joke or something to justify the post, seem natural, etc.
  • #33, #41 - T - I don’t see scum Banana coming out and giving info about her role without being asked. She’s played a few games, so it’s possible for this to be a tactic, but I think scum wouldn’t play this risky.
  • #198 - TL - I like how banana sticks to her guns here, and the answer seems focused on town perspective rather than just being defensive.
  • #199 - TL - Putting pressure on inactives like this is a town concern, and her response before is long and noticeable enough that just voting for Moozer wouldn’t be done to divert attention. If banana were scum under pressure, I think she would focus on either putting pressure on Moozer or giving a sufficient defense (not both).
  • #299 - SL - I don’t love that banana’s only post in a while is a defensive one, repeating a point they already made.
  • #378 - TL - Defending Earth like this is townie when he could be a possible lynch today.
  • #399, #417, #421 - SL - A bit OMGUSy and overly defensive, and the defense of Earth seems a bit opportunistic as a way to throw suspicion toward Mikal. She’s been focused on defense as scum before here and here, though I couldn’t really find a similar situation to compare that behavior to in her town game. (Although she seemed a bit more open and less accusatory in general as town.)
  • #606 - TL - A lot of effort, I think it’s unlikely banana goes this far under pressure if she’s scum.
  • #677, #678, #682 - TL - The continued pushing and amount of effort make the read on Mikal feels genuine, especially when banana isn’t the top lynch today.
  • #694 - SL - The defensiveness is getting to the point of being excessive and more than I’d expect a town member to actually feel. And denying that it is defensiveness doesn’t really help.
  • #16, #34, #40, #41 - SL - The logic here is bad since Earth wasn’t confirmed yesterday (still isn’t, though he’s towny today). Likely an attempt to widen the PoE pool since scum are losing.
#67
Mharman
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@AustinL0926
Your voting plan is genius 
#68
Savant
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Only 8 people submitted an answer out of 9. There is no way scum waived an answer. So that last person has to be a townie.
Ok, who didn't submit an answer? Please claim now.
#69
Savant
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@Mharman
@Mikal
@AustinL0926
@Moozer325
@iamanabanana
See above.
#70
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@Savant
You realize I was the first vote on WyIted and a played a significant part in getting him lynched?
I am not saying you weren't. Again I still mostly town read you, I just was having a few second thoughts after reading the earth willingness.
#71
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@Earth
Pie pops to to ask who won the cop, I answer and he disappeared. Hmm.
Had to go to a meeting. I work full time lol
#72
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1. Whiteflame - Pre 2000
2. Mharman - Pre 2000
3. Mikal - Pre 2000
4. Austin - Family Feud - Modified Gladiator
5. iLikePie5 - Pre 2000
6. Moozer - Pre 2000
7. Banana - Post 2000
8. Earth - Survivor - Soldier
9. Savant - Post 2000


Wylted - The Circle - 1x Catfish
Casey - Post 2000 - ??? - ???
#73
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@AustinL0926
The person who didn’t submit an answer is mod confirmed town. We need to pick them for the number 1 spot.
#74
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@ILikePie5
I won the trivia, so yes.
#75
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@Lunatic
Ok, who didn't submit an answer? Please claim now.
Is asking this within the rules? Realized I should ask.
Topic's author
#76
Lunatic
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@Savant
Is asking this within the rules? Realized I should ask.
Its fine now, I just didn't want discussion before the trivia part was over, as it would influence night actions etc. 
#77
ILikePie5
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Pie
Earth
Whiteflame
Austin
Mharman


All have said they submitted
#78
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@Earth
What time did you submit your answer?
#79
AustinL0926
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Ok, I'll claim - I was the one who didn't submit an answer. I arrived really late in the day and figured that even if I had the right answer (I didn't) someone would've already submitted it so I wasn't going to put effort into thinking about it when I had to catch up on 500 posts.

I decided not to claim that earlier to try and bait scum into saying that they didn't submit, but I realized they don't have any incentive to do it when they're going to get CC'd, so it's probs better just to claim now in order to clarify reads.
#80
Savant
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@ILikePie5
I submitted too.
#81
AustinL0926
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@Mharman
I’m not sure Wylted’s role is all that powerful, just annoying. Town can circumvent by just having everyone say who they voted for. Only really threatening in combination with the 1x politician, and that’s for mind games that help town figure stuff out.
True, but scum can lie about who they're voting for and potentially hammer someone early that way with no accountability.
#82
Mharman
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@Savant
  • #885 - SL - Waiting to hammer on scum while claiming he might is suspicious. And since WyIted wanted to post notes, it’s possible they decided that notes from Mharman would look less suspect.
Lol

1. I told pie I was gonna hammer eventually.
2. I wanted to finish my notes, notice how they end at post 631
3. I’ve been sussing wylted all game; if the plan was to replace my notes with his I have reason to type up all those notes going for wylted the most. I literally could’ve told Pie I wanted to go after Whiteflame more to protect wylted, who clearly wasn’t in any position to fake claim 
4. Zero chance Wylted fake claims miller if I’m scum btw. Past teammates of mine can attest, I like being charge of coming up with the fake claims for my team.
#83
ILikePie5
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Great, so Austin is mod confirmed town. He should be at the top of the list
#84
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Now we can move on
#85
Mharman
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@Savant
3. I’ve been sussing wylted all game; if the plan was to replace my notes with his I have reason to type up all those notes going for wylted the most. I literally could’ve told Pie I wanted to go after Whiteflame more to protect wylted, who clearly wasn’t in any position to fake claim
I have NO reason*

EBWOP 
#86
ILikePie5
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Banana & Savant are the only 2 who can use Casey’s character and role claim that scum Janitored.
#87
Savant
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@Mharman
Lol

1. I told pie I was gonna hammer eventually.
2. I wanted to finish my notes, notice how they end at post 631
3. I’ve been sussing wylted all game; if the plan was to replace my notes with his I have reason to type up all those notes going for wylted the most. I literally could’ve told Pie I wanted to go after Whiteflame more to protect wylted, who clearly wasn’t in any position to fake claim 
4. Zero chance Wylted fake claims miller if I’m scum btw. Past teammates of mine can attest, I like being charge of coming up with the fake claims for my team.
This was a very slight factor in my read on you. Like half a percent.
#88
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@Savant
Clarifying your last read one me. I voted for earth because when I got off last night none of the wylted shenanigans happened yet. I was wanting to lynch earth at that point. 

If you read that part I was the one who said we should get wylteds claim right before I got off and it looks like everyone agreed and pressured him off that. I left the vote on earth because I know I was not able to get back on to move a vote. Glancing back at the lash dp. Whiteflame and Mharm were the main pressure targets and I was the reason we switched to wylted. Was just in bed so I could not participate in it but yea that claim was retarted and I would have auto lynched him. 

Adding to this. That claim was awful. Leads me to think a fake claim was already used 


Still catching up with this dp


#89
Savant
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@Mharman
3. I’ve been sussing wylted all game; if the plan was to replace my notes with his I have reason to type up all those notes going for wylted the most. I literally could’ve told Pie I wanted to go after Whiteflame more to protect wylted, who clearly wasn’t in any position to fake claim
Could be a distancing play. Also I'm not sure you alone would have been able to get the train off WyIted, when we lynched him without your vote.
#90
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@Mikal
The town read for asking for WyIted's claim counted a lot more than the fact you voted for Earth, in terms of percentage shift. But I'm very meticulous.