Gameshow Mafia Endgame

Author: Lunatic

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#31
Mharman
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@Mikal
I would’ve seen through Banana, but scumreading you prevented it.

I had felt, that since you were defending Wylted for a bit DP1, that your tendency was to defend your teammates. So the idea that you and Banana were hard bussing since DP1 was very difficult to me to seriously consider.

And “the rambling” is just me trying to piece things together, exploring other ideas and thoughts and logical paths and whatnot. I do it all the time as town and I pointed it out to Savant.
#32
Mikal
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@Savant
Wylted was going out regardless. Way to sus and he didn’t have a claim lined up. Better to bus it 

Banana and I had created such a split that if I got lynched. Mharm would have voted you over her. 

Was playing to him 


He was an easy lynch or he was going to be dumb and vote you 
#33
Mharman
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@Mikal
So, do you still think I suck?
#34
Savant
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@Mikal
Did no one on your team use the fake claim? I did wonder about that.
#35
Mikal
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@Mharman
I thought you played very well. Was compliment your read on me the entire game. I just had to rage at you to get you off me and seem sincere. You are accurate but you don’t know how to sell 

But yes you played well 
#36
Casey_Risk
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Also, what happened with Austin and Moozer both claiming they didn't submit a guess? Was that really just a moderator error?
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#37
Lunatic
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@Casey_Risk
Balance feels slightly scumsided tbh, but it was a good game regardless!
Thats wild, I thought it was town sided a bit from the start lol. Town had three mislynches (accounting for the gladiator) and had investigative power in whiteflame, with the only counter being the redirect. 
#38
Mikal
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@Savant
Mine was the fake claim. Character that is 

Doc was the role claim. I used it to stage the extra part of my role since no protect was in the game. 
#39
Savant
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@Mikal
Wylted was going out regardless. Way to sus and he didn’t have a claim lined up. Better to bus it
I guess you being scum makes more sense from the POV of WyIted not really cooperating with you. But why not line up a better claim for him? Or have him use the fake claim? I don't think you were really on the table to be lynched dp1.
#40
Mikal
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This was def town sided. 
#41
Mikal
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@Savant
We had already thought out how we would use claims and he said he had a good claim and he came out with that lol 

In hindsight it worked 
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#42
Lunatic
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@Casey_Risk
Also, what happened with Austin and Moozer both claiming they didn't submit a guess? Was that really just a moderator error?
I mentioned that in the OP. Basically I was getting discord submissions and dart submissions, and I don't totally remember everyones discord handles. One of them I could have sworn was moozer, and I counted his answer, I didn't realize til later that person wasn't moozer. Anyways, to prevent that whole thing town didn't need to ever know how many answers were submitted, but I didn't think it was something that would be abused, due to naivety lol. 
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#43
Lunatic
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@Savant
I guess you being scum makes more sense from the POV of WyIted not really cooperating with you. But why not line up a better claim for him? Or have him use the fake claim? I don't think you were really on the table to be lynched dp1.
Wylted was a loose cannon and broke under pressure. I don't think any of the scum team had a chance to warn him away from his claim when he claimed it lol It happened very fast
#44
Mharman
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@Mikal
Targeting down me was definitely the right play on your side.

Dude I wanna get a scum game with you as my teammate now. I’m on a five scum game win streak
#45
Mikal
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@Mharman
Either could kill you or you would have went for savant. I think it was semi safe 
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#46
Lunatic
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@Casey_Risk
I will say, I am very frustrated that the town believed Banana when she claimed my character and role. I thought it was SO OBVIOUS that I was softing Fear Factor. 
To be fair, pie was unrelenting on this point, and it was one of the major things that got him killed lol 
#47
Casey_Risk
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@Lunatic
To be fair, pie was unrelenting on this point, and it was one of the major things that got him killed lol 
Yeah, fair play to Pie. I just wish the rest of the town would have listened to him on that point.
#48
ILikePie5
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@Casey_Risk
Yeah, fair play to Pie. I just wish the rest of the town would have listened to him on that point.
Literally Banana was #2 after WF. If Savant had used his role on WF, Banana was 100% the lynch. Imagine a scenario with WF, Moozer, Austin confirmed. Mharman I town read cause there was zero reason for him to divert the wagon to Wylted end of DP1.

I also literally said Mikal’s position depends his role because I had him DP1 where he was pushing wayyyy too hard on Earth.
#49
iamanabanana
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Wow my first mafia win! I know I got carried, but I am still happy. Good job to everyone, especially good job to mikal. I was actually having fun doing the fake fights with you. Good job to everyone, fun game. Mharman, you almost had it! So close haha.
#50
ILikePie5
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@Casey_Risk
Yeah, fair play to Pie. I just wish the rest of the town would have listened to him on that point.
Banana was my lynch if Savant was a team player and used his role on WF. Even if WF is town, we reduce the POE cause Savant wasn’t confirmed town by any means.
#51
ILikePie5
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@iamanabanana
Wow my first mafia win! I know I got carried, but I am still happy. Good job to everyone, especially good job to mikal. I was actually having fun doing the fake fights with you. Good job to everyone, fun game. Mharman, you almost had it! So close haha.
GGs and congrats on your first win!
#52
iamanabanana
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@ILikePie5
GGs and congrats on your first win!
Thanks pie, you saw right through me lol
#53
Savant
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Looking back at percentages, I think my behavioral reads worked at basically the rate of chance. Percentages were more accurate dp2 but biased by Moozer and Austin being basically confirmed. So yeah, I don't think I would have predicted the bus strategy 99 times out of 100.
#54
Savant
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@Mikal
This was def town sided.
After WyIted's lynch I think so. But if he hadn't thrown, I'm not sure town really stands a chance.
#55
ILikePie5
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@Savant
Looking back at percentages, I think my behavioral reads worked at basically the rate of chance. Percentages were more accurate dp2 but biased by Moozer and Austin being basically confirmed. So yeah, I don't think I would have predicted the bus strategy 99 times out of 100.
And that’s the issue with probability unfortunately
#56
Savant
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@ILikePie5
that’s the issue with probability unfortunately
Is it an issue with probability or just with the accuracy of my reads? Other than recording how much you suspect a person, how do you determine if your reads work better than the rate of chance? Even if I just categorized people as "scummy" or "townie," I don't think I'd do much better than random chance.
#57
ILikePie5
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@iamanabanana
Thanks pie, you saw right through me lol
The devil’s in the details. Lunatic was faulting me a bit too much, but if town paid attention, Mharman caught Savant in a scumslip DP3. Also once Howie Mandel was gone from Savant, Fear Factor was the only thing left.
#58
ILikePie5
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@Savant
Is it an issue with probability or just with the accuracy of my reads? Other than recording how much you suspect a person, how do you determine if your reads work better than the rate of chance? Even if I just categorized people as "scummy" or "townie," I don't think I'd do much better than random chance.
Well, tbh with you, I basically skimmed all your probability posts, so don’t really know. I think you need to factor in character + role into your probability and overall reading
#59
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I wonder if I would think that Mikal was the last scum. Probably not lol. Good game y'all.

#60
ILikePie5
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@Earth
I wonder if I would think that Mikal was the last scum. Probably not lol. Good game y'all.
Man you really gotta learn how to not be scummy. And stop disappearing as soon as I die lol