Skyrim Mafia Day 1

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AdaptableRatman
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I dont know why Savant wouldnt fakeclaim as WFs partner though
AdaptableRatman
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Savant playing hardball makes Mikal likelier as the partner. I feel Mikal is one of the only players whod hard support Savant playing it how he did. So if we assume Savant got permission from partner to risk it all, Mikal is by far his likeliest partner.
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@Casey_Risk
You voted Savant and left him to be hammered for a while. You then unvoted for no good reason as you oppose the massclaim.

The reality is the relatively clear player is voting Savant and so is the player that confirmed him.

I have full claimed.

So who  which 4 players exactly are you planning to vote with?

The 3 of us are not shifting.
AdaptableRatman
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@Mikal
@Ultracrepidarian
The reality is the relatively clear player is voting Savant and so is the player that confirmed him.

I have full claimed.

So which 4 players exactly are you planning to vote with?

The 3 of us are not shifting.

AdaptableRatman
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@Savant
 Found the unvote
Casey_Risk
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@AdaptableRatman
I unvoted Savant because I no longer believe he's likely scum. It's really that simple. I do believe that the town should almost always try to lynch someone except sometimes at MYLO, but that doesn't mean I'm going to rush to lynch someone I think is more likely town when we still have plenty of time left in the day. 
AdaptableRatman
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@Casey_Risk
That time is solely being utilised to reveal more info on our roles to mafia.
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@Casey_Risk
Give me 1 reason for you to claim. 1.

Then do the same for others than Savant.

Remember, no matter what Wylted, Pie and myself are voting Savant unless a direct CC occurs.
whiteflame
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@AdaptableRatman
I still don't think Savant is scum. That's my perspective, and it's not going to change just because there's more people on his wagon or because I should just trust you to know. Pie's willing to vote based on principle, but I'm not.
AdaptableRatman
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@whiteflame
Why does Savant get special treatment?

If myself or others behaved like him theyd have been hammered long ago.
whiteflame
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@AdaptableRatman
I've stated my reasons for opposing his lynch now several times. If you want to respond, please refer back.
Ultracrepidarian
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Give me 1 reason for you to claim. 1.

Then do the same for others than Savant.

Because there's  definitely someone besides Savant who's definitely mafia, maybe two
Ultracrepidarian
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I'm so confident in that I used definitely TWICE 
AdaptableRatman
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@whiteflame
The situation is as follows:

  1. 3 voters 2 of which jave fullclaimed 1 of which is confirmed by the unclaimed in the 3 are voting Savant.
  2. You would therefore need 4 votes on someone who is not Savant, since we are united, to vote someone else off.
  3. If you are town and all 3 of us are Town, out of 5 remaining players you would want 4 to vote the 5th. There would be 2 scum in that 5.

AdaptableRatman
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@Ultracrepidarian
Are you new to Mafia?
Ultracrepidarian
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@AdaptableRatman
No just intellectually challenged 
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@Ultracrepidarian
Please just think of this:

  • 3 voters 2 of which have fullclaimed 1 of which is confirmed by the unclaimed in the 3 are voting Savant.
  • You would therefore need 4 votes on someone who is not Savant, since we are united, to vote someone else off.
  • If you are town and all 3 of us are Town, out of 5 remaining players you would want 4 to vote the 5th. There would be 2 scum in that 5.

  • whiteflame
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    @AdaptableRatman
    So your point is "lynch your townread because I believe scum will be on whatever other lynch is setup." That's not a super convincing argument for why Savant is scum.
    AdaptableRatman
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    @whiteflame
    That is what I have had to do in some situations, yes. Since it ends up binary. You vote one bandwagon or another.
    whiteflame
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    @AdaptableRatman
    I just straight up disagree with setting things up as a 1v1 situation, though you continue to make it out that way.

    Anyway, it's late, and I'm not going to continue arguing this at the cost of a good night's sleep. I'll reconsider the Savant lynch in the morning.
    Ultracrepidarian
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    I'll jump on Savant's wagon if he's the only option at the end but I don't want to lynch someone that I have as null if we have the time to consider, it's that simple. 
    Savant
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    Current reads, I'll flesh these out in the morning. WyIted is confirmed, AR's tunneling is towny, and WF and Mikal aren't taking advantage of the mislynch. The rest are being fairly opportunistic about this.

    Town
    AR
    WyIted
    Mikal
    Whiteflame

    PoE
    Casey
    Ultracrepidarian
    Lunatic
    Pie
    Savant
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    I think scum would have found a reason to hammer me, hence I suspect that scum were both on the wagon. That means Casey and Pie are the most likely team from my POV.
    Savant
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    Suppose it could also be Luna, since he said he was going to sleep. At least it means he was probably telling the truth about that.
    ILikePie5
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    We can discuss all we want; I will unvote if need be. However I’m not changing my vote until Savant claims. And if he doesn’t, I will vote to lynch him and not play in a game with him
    Savant
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    @ILikePie5
    I will vote to lynch him and not play in a game with him
    That's gonna be difficult for all the games you don't host, cause I'm probably gonna play in all of them.
    Savant
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    Pie's annoyance and threat here seem genuine, so I think Casey is probably my preferred lynch today. Casey also just hasn't been reading the way they were in other games. Guess that's true for me too, but the percentages were just way too time consuming and not really accurate.

    VTL Casey
    Savant
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    @ILikePie5
    Also I do hope the game we're co-hosting is still on, I mean I won't be playing in that one.
    ILikePie5
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    @whiteflame
    So your point is "lynch your townread because I believe scum will be on whatever other lynch is setup." That's not a super convincing argument for why Savant is scum.
    The point is that the 3 of us are pretty townie. Out of the remaining the 6, there are 2 scum. 33% odds. If you are town then the only scenario where you don’t vote along with us 3 is if you believe Savant is townier than all 3 of us. Theres also a protective role in the mix that is likely town, meaning 4 townies. 5 possible POE targets, and we can eliminate 3 of them via lynches.

    Now let’s make the odds better with behavioral reads. I agree with RM that Mikal and Owen are tilt town for the moment. Let’s assume for sake of argument that one of them is the protective role. We are down to exactly 4 remaining players: Luna, Casey, WF, Savant, which is a 50/50 shot today and if Savant is town, a 66% shot tomorrow and 100% shot DP3.

    Now let’s say you think Savant is town and you know you are town, that means you replace yourself and Savant with Mikal/Owen.

    The 3 of us aren’t going to vote Owen today nor Mikal. 
    ILikePie5
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    @Savant
    That's gonna be difficult for all the games you don't host, cause I'm probably gonna play in all of them.
    That’s fine with me. I’d rather not waste my time. It’s up to the mod whether they want you to play or me anyways.