Feminist Mafia Endgame

Author: Savant

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#151
Casey_Risk
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@Mharman
Odds are probably a bit too low because you're counting 'Whiteflame and Casey' separately from 'Casey and Whiteflame'. You gotta use the choose function. 9 choose 2 is 36 so assuming that both of us are in a 9-player game, there is a 1/36 chance that we are the scum team.
#152
Mharman
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@Casey_Risk
Ok. 0.5^2 * (1/36)^2 =0.000193 

Still filled in the same results
#153
Casey_Risk
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@Mharman
You're right, I just kinda glanced at your numbers and assumed you had made a common error. Oops.

Not sure how correct the assumption of 50/50 townsided/scumsided is, however. But that's mainly because a lot of games are well-balanced, so that would drive the odds even lower.
#154
Mharman
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@Casey_Risk
I think I had the choose function built in, just ordered weirdly if that makes sense.
#155
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@Casey_Risk
Yeah. I didnt wanna bother guessing the odds of a balanced/non balanced game. So I just kept it simple 
#156
Mharman
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If guess if we assume that’s a 50/50 as well it means townsided games are 1 in 4, meaning the odds of b2b TS games become 4x less likely.

So 1 in 20,000 sets of two games if we make that assumption
#157
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Ofc this assumes the setup is townsided. I’ve said earlier this setup is unbalanced bc it’s swingy, not bc it sides one way or another
#158
Mharman
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So it’d be 1 in 10,000 then
#159
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@Mharman
(0.5*(2/9))^2

This is actually the correct way to do it. Since the .5 squaring on its own skews the chance more extremely low than it really is.
#160
AdaptableRatman
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It is 
0.0123 to 3 s.f.

#161
Barney
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Oh FYI, my DP1 obvious fake claim was going to be PETA’s claim that only white suprematists drink milk! https://www.peta.org/news/cows-milk-perfect-drink-supremacists/

That day ending so early was odd, as was the desire for people to lynch me without first pressuring me for information… Granted, once RM started the milk joke, I likely would have claimed to be an even day cow (or other milk related role).

Minor trick being that someone would have to be scum or at least intentionally anti-town to pretend to believe I’m serious on DP1 while l’m in the dark on my role and team.
#162
AdaptableRatman
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@Barney
What skilled and nonbannable behaviour
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#163
Savant
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@Mharman
0.5^2 * (2/9)^2 * (1/8)^2 = 0.000193

Those are the odds of the same two players rolling scum in back to back townsided 9-player games.
Why square 2/9 and 1/8? It doesn't have to be any particular two players, just the same two players the second game as the first.
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#164
Savant
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@Lunatic
@Barney
@whiteflame
@Mikal
@Casey_Risk
Since the theme was feminism, the theme split was men are scum. In case that wasn't clear from the Role PMs.
#165
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@AdaptableRatman
What skilled and nonbannable behaviour
Mafia is a social deduction game. The game would be zero fun if we banned all of the players who lie. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mno8o-W35S4

But you're of course welcome to petition David and/or whiteflame.
#166
Vader
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He always yapping about nothing