Atypical Day Phase 2

Author: Lunatic

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Casey_Risk
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@Vader
This is the typical norm for such and if he doesn't turn he turns into a strong scum read. I layed this out and our justification to lynch is that the joat was true and casey's role works the same way.
Fair enough, I expect you to follow through on this logic, and I hope the rest of the town ensures that you do so, because I fully expect to die tonight.
Casey_Risk
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@Vader
There is also way more of a reason for Casey to verify Savant rather than anyone else. Savant was almost dead to rights in the later DP1 before Earth's claim. If I am scums partner I would try anything possible to divert attention and to give some form of credibility to that user. The role Casey claims is just that role. However again I am still town reading Casey and don't think that.
It's really cool how you're building a case for me being scum while also publically stating that you townread me.
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@Casey_Risk

I would honestly scum read myself if I perfectly typed out justifications for myself. I know its crazy to think but I can attest to my biggest flaw as scum being way too detailed orientated.
Except for when you were scum and got the date of completion of the Hagia Sofia wrong... Or when you got details about your character wrong in Castlevania Mafia... 
I got CC'd in Years Mafia by WF and got outted from a result

I have links to a ton of games where I made a mistake. Years worth. It's not just me being scum. I don't think it's a strong argument and tbh it's pretty weak IMO

Casey_Risk
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@Vader
I got CC'd in Years Mafia by WF and got outted from a result
Yes, but you also made the mistakes that I said you made, and your mistake about the Hagia Sofia was one of the reasons I hard scumread you even before the CC. Don't try and act like what I said isn't true.

I have links to a ton of games where I made a mistake. Years worth. It's not just me being scum. I don't think it's a strong argument and tbh it's pretty weak IMO
Right, so you don't make mistakes as scum, except for when you do, but we should just overlook those, because you also make mistakes as town sometimes. Okay.
Vader
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@Casey_Risk
There is also way more of a reason for Casey to verify Savant rather than anyone else. Savant was almost dead to rights in the later DP1 before Earth's claim. If I am scums partner I would try anything possible to divert attention and to give some form of credibility to that user. The role Casey claims is just that role. However again I am still town reading Casey and don't think that.
It's really cool how you're building a case for me being scum while also publically stating that you townread me.

So now you have an issue with me building a case but have an issue when I deflect the case you make that I clearly responded to???

Please note how Vader is merely deflecting away from my case against him and Pie instead of actually making a substantive reply.
As I said, I am throwing ideas out there. My read has remained consistent on you. I think you are a town read but you are not town locked so there is possibilities of what I am suggesting that could happened. But like I said, I don't think it's the case. 
Casey_Risk
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@Vader
So now you have an issue with me building a case but have an issue when I deflect the case you make that I clearly responded to???
So you admit that you're building a case against me, then? Why even bother doing that if you TR me so?
Vader
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@Casey_Risk
I got CC'd in Years Mafia by WF and got outted from a result
Yes, but you also made the mistakes that I said you made, and your mistake about the Hagia Sofia was one of the reasons I hard scumread you even before the CC. Don't try and act like what I said isn't true

I have links to a ton of games where I made a mistake. Years worth. It's not just me being scum. I don't think it's a strong argument and tbh it's pretty weak IMO
Right, so you don't make mistakes as scum, except for when you do, but we should just overlook those, because you also make mistakes as town sometimes. Okay.

I am not suggesting to overlook mistakes. I am just saying that at times throughout my mafia career I have made mistakes on both of sides of the coin, town and scum. It's not affiliation indicative like you are implying it is. Even then, the mistakes you suggested where character and role PM mistakes. Your mistake is that, I said each instead of once. Sorry that's not really enough of a mistake to justify a scum read
Vader
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@Casey_Risk
So now you have an issue with me building a case but have an issue when I deflect the case you make that I clearly responded to???
So you admit that you're building a case against me, then? Why even bother doing that if you TR me so?

You literally are just nit picking my posts, this is what I said

" I think you are a town read but you are not town locked so there is possibilities of what I am suggesting that could happened. But like I said, I don't think it's the case."

Vader
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@Casey_Risk
Do you want me to give a full breakdown of my read on you to clarify my stance on you?
Casey_Risk
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@Vader
I am not suggesting to overlook mistakes. I am just saying that at times throughout my mafia career I have made mistakes on both of sides of the coin, town and scum. It's not affiliation indicative like you are implying it is.
You were literally the one who implied that making mistakes about your character and PM was something you rarely ever did as scum because you pay too much attention to the details as scum. I merely disproved that notion. My case against you is additive, anyway. It's not just the potential slip, but also the unique role no one has ever seen before, the fact that I wasn't able to actually target you, and plain old PoE. I'm very confident in my town reads this game. 

Do you want me to give a full breakdown of my read on you to clarify my stance on you?
Sure, go ahead. 
ILikePie5
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@WyIted
bruh, Lunatic is in the age range where this is a huge name. I promise. I thought it still was

Okay, so I just live under a rock. Fair enough. The role claim is bad + we have a guilty on him.
ILikePie5
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@iamanabanana
So we have a watcher, an amnesiac cop, an innocent child, and whatever role Vader is? Doesn’t this seem like a lot of investigative power on the town side? One of these has to be a fake claim….
Well, I know im town, and I you’re 99% town, unless Luna gave scum the ability to give a fake investigation. That’s basically bastard. That leaves Savant and Supa. It’s basically solved from my POV. There’s 2 scum in Ultra, Savant, Wylted, Supa.

I’m fine with lynching ultra today on the guilty but I think his partner is one of the investigators not including myself obviously.
If Ultra flips guilty it’s probably Supa or Savant. I can’t see Wylted crafting fake claims at all so he doesn’t make sense as Ultra’s partner.
ILikePie5
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@Vader
It’s the opposite of a dreamer

Each night I choose a person and they are given 3 roles that they could be
That’s not how you described your role earlier
ILikePie5
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@Ultracrepidarian
Sorry I'm with family I hardly see so this game has taken a back seat. I suppose there's nothing much I can say in my defense. 
Appreciate the confession


ILikePie5
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@Casey_Risk
I do want a little more discussion before this day ends. Specifically, I want everyone to answer these two questions:

  1. If Ultra should flip town, who does that most implicate?
If Ultra is somehow magically town, then it leaves Supa/Savant/Wylted. You are confirmed town as I explained earlier. Banana, I’m just going to confirm town as well cause if she can give fake investigations, then Luna is bastard, and I’ll cuss him out in endgame.

In this scenario, I think it’s Supa/Savant + Wylted cause I know I’m town. As I mentioned before, Wylted is ass at fake claiming so he was given it by Supa/Savant who are the only two people smart enough to create the fake claims and give it. Why would I think it’s a fake claim? Look at Earth’s flip, and I alluded to this last DP. It doesn’t make sense for Wylted to be Actor with a literal person only famous for being an Actor (Daryl Hannah). So that means Wylted’s claim is fake.

Gun to my head, I would probably pick Vader as the partner. First, he’s inconsistent with how is role even works. Second, the role is just odd. It sounds broken cause if there is a pre-set list of 3 then it could instantly catch scum in a lie. With a Cop in the games it doesn’t make sense? 

  1. What do you make of my bulletproof vest going to Savant? What do you think the scum team did and why?
This is the one thing I can’t really explain. Maybe scum thought you were the Doctor and so they redirected you to Savant so their kill would go through? I don’t know roles scum has besides a supposed Redirector. If Savant is scum, it could gambit to redirect you to him if scum thought you were a Cop and would investigate a townie like me for example.
Vader
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@ILikePie5
That's literally how I described the role
Vader
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@Casey_Risk
Full breakdown.

You are IMO a town read. I would say likely town IMO. I think your behavior has been very aligned with what you play as town. Taking charge in games and being at the forefront of the towns choice is what I see from town. I think you are going through the right thought processes but are just jumping the gun and making assumptions. I said that I am not ruling out that you couldn't be scum and I will say that for everyone unless there is really hard hard evidence and there really isn't besides the BP vest being redirected and there is a possibility that you could be lying to save Savant from being the focus on the target. I laid out my reasoning but how much do I believe it? Probably around a 5-10% just because I don't think this aligns as your scum and no offense I don't see you and Savant making a play like that, so deffo a likely town read but as I said, very possible you could be scum but not very likely

Vader
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Well I am pretty sure Ultra is likely scum but if he turns town there are a few ways to proceed. Here are some obvious paths

Ultra flips guilty, likely a 5v1 
- Banana is town locked
If Pie Inno Child is revealed DP3
Likely 4v1 
- POE down to Savant and Wylted at that point 


Ultra flips guilty and Pie is not Inno Child
- Hard suspicion on Pie being scum
- Casey's odds increase because of the JOAT in the Comedian revelation

Ultra flips innocent, likely a 4v2
- Banana looks guilty as fuck and the odds of 2+ investigatives roles existing increase
Pie Inno Child revealed
- Odds increase on Casey being scum 
- POE is Wylted/Banana/Savant/Casey

Ultra flips innocent
Pie doesn't turn inno child
- Pie is scummy as fuck


Out of all these I think it's between Savant and Wylted but I feel like Ultra is probably the best option at this point. Weak claim and weak defense almost as if he's given up. I do the same thing as mafia sometimes when I'm caught too
VTL Ultra
Vader
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@Casey_Risk
 unique role
This role is somewhat common tbh. It's not like it's some crazy bullshit role

And honestly if I were actually scum, why wouldn't I have just gone for a Dreamer fake claim lol. It would've make it 10x easier to come up with fake results and put 3 additional people for mislynches. Claiming a Comedian wouldn't make any sense in this case
ILikePie5
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@Casey_Risk
I don't think it's Banana either, however. If Ultra is town, then I think Pie is scum. Look at this interaction between him and I in Mayday Mafia.

Don’t forget that this is the same Owen [Ultra] who steamrolled town with Wylted and Barney with his fake CC. I think we give him less credit than he deserves as a player. I think for me today it’s between Moozer and Owen. (#413) 
I reply:

Maybe so, but I think a large part of the problem there is that no one really questioned a 3P BP and a Town BP existing in the same game nearly as much as we should have. (#421)
Pie replies back:

[That's] fair, but his execution was perfect as well. (#422) 
Sound familiar? Because it reminds me a lot of Pie in this game:

That’s fair, but you’ve only evaluated his town games. You have to compare it to his scum games. This guy was the mastermind of a double fake CC scum win if I remember correctly. (#158)
Pie was pivoting to setting up a mislynch on Owen in Mayday Mafia. I think he may have been doing the same thing here. He gives Ultra too much credit for what happened in that game, and I think it's on purpose. I mean, Pie was trying hard to put sus on him during DP1, and now he magically appears guilty. Suspicious? Only if he flips town. 
You’re overthinking. Ultra has a guilty result on him. How else would Ultra appear guilty? I assume you think I framed Ultra. The odds of that are so low to begin with. And second, if my plan was to get him mislynched, I can do that without the Framer too. I would’ve just framed someone else.

I don't buy Wylted being scum for behavioral reasons. Ditto with Banana - after she explained her scumread on me, I went back and looked at her previous posts, and all her interactions with me really did read as 'I think you're town but am also really frustrated with you.' Plus I know she's not lying about her role and I don't see it going to scum. 
I agree. I’ll readily admit I misread her.

I also TR Savant for his claim. It makes sense with the balance. So basically, scum are among (Ultra, Vader, Pie). Game is basically solved FMPOV. 
And I’m basically guaranteed to be confirmed, so it’s probably Vader/Ultra. Off chance of Savant/Ultra
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@Vader
This role is somewhat common tbh. It's not like it's some crazy bullshit role
I have literally never seen it before. Granted I'm not the ultimate authority on mafia, but Pie says he's never seen anything like it before, either.

And honestly if I were actually scum, why wouldn't I have just gone for a Dreamer fake claim lol. It would've make it 10x easier to come up with fake results and put 3 additional people for mislynches. Claiming a Comedian wouldn't make any sense in this case
This really isn't that hard to explain. You claim what you can justify. I never said that your justification doesn't line up, did I?
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@ILikePie5
You’re overthinking. Ultra has a guilty result on him. How else would Ultra appear guilty? I assume you think I framed Ultra. The odds of that are so low to begin with. And second, if my plan was to get him mislynched, I can do that without the Framer too. I would’ve just framed someone else.
Yeah, sure, I might be. I just want to cover all my bases. I am almost positive that Vader is the partner if Ultra is scum, however.

And I’m basically guaranteed to be confirmed, so it’s probably Vader/Ultra.
Agreed on the second part. I'm assuming you're DP3 Inno Child then? 
Vader
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@Casey_Risk
And honestly if I were actually scum, why wouldn't I have just gone for a Dreamer fake claim lol. It would've make it 10x easier to come up with fake results and put 3 additional people for mislynches. Claiming a Comedian wouldn't make any sense in this case
This really isn't that hard to explain. You claim what you can justify. I never said that your justification doesn't line up, did I?

Fair point. But I mean I was just thinking from a logical perspective on what would make it easier for mafia to come away  with a win and Dreamer would've made 10x more sense. I know this is extremely WIFOM but you get 3 mislynch targets if you utilize a Dreamer as your fake claim versus Comedian which really only gives you one and if you fake the results of what you get you get insta scum read

As for not seeing this role ever. I just think that's such a weak argument. Hell I still see roles I've never seen. It's on the master role list we have as well.
WyIted
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I think ultra is at L1

So

VTL ultra
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Also can all of you guys vote on this. I can't change my profile picture until I have a 5 point lead

https://www.debateart.com/debates/6348-my-profile-photo-is-better-than-your-profile-photo
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@Casey_Risk
I have literally never seen it before. Granted I'm not the ultimate authority on mafia, but Pie says he's never seen anything like it before, either.
Ya I definitely haven’t.

Agreed on the second part. I'm assuming you're DP3 Inno Child then?
Yep
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@Vader
Fair point. But I mean I was just thinking from a logical perspective on what would make it easier for mafia to come away  with a win and Dreamer would've made 10x more sense. I know this is extremely WIFOM but you get 3 mislynch targets if you utilize a Dreamer as your fake claim versus Comedian which really only gives you one and if you fake the results of what you get you get insta scum read
Couple of issues with this. First you need a character claim to justify as Casey pointed out. Second, you have to presume that no one would visit you. It’s a massively risky endeavor.

As for not seeing this role ever. I just think that's such a weak argument. Hell I still see roles I've never seen. It's on the master role list we have as well.
What master list are you talking about? 
ILikePie5
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Game is solved. Scum should just quit
Casey_Risk
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@Lunatic
Hammer
Vader
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Since we have time before Luna gets on I’m gonna give my thoughts since it’s looking like I’m going to be mislynched next DP. We just have to pray that Ultra is scum or else we will be screwed

Pie outted  his DP3 affiliation which makes him 99% likely to be town. If he does not I’m tunneling him hard considering the fact he won’t consider any one else to be scum (especially  if Ultra flips  town and wants to believe Savant as a tracker rather than my role). 

As my vote is, ultra is probably scum but I’m lost on who could be his partner. I still think Savant is the 2nd scum tbh and I haven’t heard enough from Wylted besides his hammer so I’m not sure.

Also this means banana is likely town as well

Behaviorally speaking I would Casey is town but if Ultra flips town I am going to severely put that into question, considering the pivot they had in DP1 off savant but as it stands I think they are still town

It’s literally down to Savant and Wylted at this point

I feel like we are going to jump to some pretty bullshit conclusions next DP but I want to note that as a claimed tracker last DP Savant was not killed by when neither banana nor myself outted roles