Office Mafia Day 1

Author: warren42

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Lunatic
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Not at a computer atm so just responding from my phone.

I dont see what I said about figuring out his playstyle being hypocritical at all. In fact learning about a players behavior tendencies seems more beneficial in the long run then lynching someone for theme info. I would think behavioral changes are monumentally more scummy historically then weak character claim lynches. That was something I learned early on years ago when I lynched airmax for claiming to be an object in f-16s harry potter mafia when everyone else was a human. You can't really argue that arose playstyle is not a stark contrast to the last game where he was town. Investigating why his play might be different here will help out understanding of his play. I wouldn't push the lynch if I saw town motivation for the way he going about this phase and genuinely dont see this as a likely mislynch. 

Anyways looks like I am too late and that SA was hammered. I hope I am the jackass here and you guys proved me wrong on this and he's scum. Airmaxs claim that his role indiciates he could be scum seems the strongest support for his Lynch thus far and airmax himself said that the connection he made is vague.

Guess we'll see.

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@drafterman
It took, almost literally, the entire 72-hour DP to lynch SA. It took 5 hours to get AROSE to L-2.
Maybe thats because the case on SA is much weaker and the majority of the people even on that wagon have omitted that its pretty weak and are voting it out of convienence.

oromagi
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@Lunatic
can you please restate or point to post that succintly states the case for A-R-O-S-E?
Vader
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Unvote VTL SA
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@drafterman
Are you not concerned that your wagon only consists of people sheeping you?
The vast majority of players voting sre voting for relatively poor reasons. The sleeping is unavoidable on both sides as youve pointed out in your analysis of the wagons. SirAnon was at l-1 and could have easily been hammered by the sheep, the fact that people were willing to go for an alternative shows at least some motive to look for scum instead of going for the lay down lynch.

oromagi
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@Vader
Unvote VTL SA
now u r just begging 4 sanction
Vader
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I give my reasons for SA, he turns scum, FOS on Lunatic
drafterman
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@Lunatic
Right, but the entirety of the wagon on AROSE is people sheeping you. Doesn't that give you pause, or are you chalking this up to your own force of character?
Vader
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@oromagi
Nah g
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@oromagi
The case against arose in a nutshell is that his playstyle if town is extremely different from those of the last two games he played in. He came in claiming to do his usual gambit in the signups. After roles are handed out and the game starts he retracts that saying he will not be doing his usual gambits. Leads me to assume him being mafia and wanting to lay low this time is the reason. In dark crystal he was a town power role and still used a potentially backfiring gambit in orser to lynch a gut read of his. In this phase he was claiming he simply wasnt going to participate in thr game because it was long. This just doesn't seem like aroses usual town play.
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@Vader
I give my reasons for SA, he turns scum, FOS on Lunatic
Supadudz that's a cop out. You were literally on the same wagon. You switch back and forth at your convienence. I doubt anyone will buy the argument of "lunatics such a dipshiy he risked being ousted as mafia by blatantly steering a lynch away from his scum buddy" in the event that SA is scum.

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@Lunatic
Not unreasonable.  However, a sampling size of three is hard to generalize, particularly when the subject is well motivated to inconsistency.  I'm not good at detecting/projecting moods myself so personality based reads (the core of most exp. players game) are seldom enticing to me.
Wylted
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@Lunatic
Behaviorally SA is scum, and quite clearly. This makes me suspicious of you that you seem to be unable to recognize such obvious scum play. Notice his silence now too. Acting just like defeated scum act. Obvious scum is obvious 
oromagi
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@Wylted
I hope you are right.  I'm vague on the utility of your "not VIG" claim
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@drafterman
Supadudz is a sheep through and through. Being convinced by an argument is how any lynch is goinf to form. If someone makes a behavioral case in someone that convinces me I might give a. One liner in support and put my vote on said person as well if I agree with what their saying. Press, pie, gp, speed all seem to fit in there. Most of the wagon on SA formed because "well its the only thing we got right now even if its weak" which is a way worse alternative I think.

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@Wylted
SA told us last night he wouldn't be active today. And hes probably the second or third most active player in this game regardless. I dont really know how you want him to defend himself. The reasons for his wagon are pretty shite and he already admitted to being a noob and not knosing your not supposed to claim under less than significant pressure. What more do you want from him lol
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@oromagi
He just reaction testing him. Thought maybe the fear of death could be simulated and he would be more forthright. I think he is town but want to kill him out of spite for being a dumb ass. When HE Is dead I am sure we will all see how much of a dumb ass he is for suggesting his random role means there is likely no cop. Or we will see he is a dumb ass because he has an investigative role such as one that can reveal an affiliation upon death, but he lacks the cognitive ability to understand basic words like the word "investigative
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@Lunatic
Most of the wagon on SA formed because "well its the only thing we got right now even if its weak" which is a way worse alternative I think.
Objectively false.

The wagon on SA consists of the following:

Sir
    (later Wylted revised his analysis to behaviorial) - https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/2985/post_links/126534
AROSE - (had to choose between himself and SA) - https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/2985/post_links/126568

Only two people (Wylted/Water) took a "might as well" approach and Wylted later changed it with some surprisingly solid analysis.


drafterman
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@Lunatic
What more do you want from him lol
How about an actual vote?


Wylted
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@Lunatic
Hiss claim has nothing to do with the fact his pattern of speaking is unnatural and forced, that he is breaking up reads instead of creating his own or that he is afraid to place a vote all things which are behavioral indications of noob scum, and very obvious in him.
Wylted
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I don't want him to defend himself and could care less if he does. Pretty obvious he is scum. He can't do anymore to tell us he is scum without playing against his wincon 
oromagi
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@drafterman
GG SirAnon was 3rd party jester.

that would be an amazing end to the fattest DP on DART, Dr. After Man.

Wylted
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My "might as well" was I voted him earlier for the reasons stated, but invited to get more information from the DP. The second post drafter references is pretty accurate of my current thought process
Vader
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@Lunatic
I am usually sold on a read. I was sold on DP1 it was SA, we have 11hrs left and the interest level is mildly fading. AROSE is strong scum is SA is town.

I am on the fence null being convinced by other people. i have my reads, but they are not enough to secure someone as mafia. I am being convinced by town at this point to see who to lynch. I am 65% SA, 35% AROSE scum right now, and it is not enough to place my lynch. With the odds, I am willing to bet money whereever town says

oromagi
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@drafterman
forgot to say- your break downs are awesome
Wylted
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@Vader
May the odds ever be in your favor
Wylted
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I think drafter is one of those odd balls who takes notes on the game. It would take me 3 hours to gather the stuff he put together in that post relatively quickly
Lunatic
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@Vader
Interest is fading? What game are you playing?
oromagi
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@Wylted
reminds of Speed's gigantic odds breakdown a few games back.  Imagine a game of mafia that was all statisticians and analysts.
Lunatic
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I'll be on in a few hours when I get to work g2g for a bit. Nothing I say at this juncture really matters though sir was lynched.