Trump's middle east "peace" plan

Author: HistoryBuff ,

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  • HistoryBuff
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    Trump released what he is charitably calling a peace plan for Israel and the Palestinians. Essentially, the plan gives Israel everything they want and screws over the Palestinians about as hard as it could have. 

    Needless to say, the Israeli's love this plan, because they get everything they want. The Palestinians have dismissed it out of hand because it is stupid on the face of it. 

    The people around Trump obviously know this plan isn't going anywhere. It is a political stunt. It will help to bolster Netanyahu who just got indicted for corruption and is desperate to hold onto power to avoid going to prison. It will bolster Trump in certain evangelical and Jewish circles.  But it has no chance of actually bringing peace. I mean the level to which the proposal is insulting to the Palestinians is likely to prompt an escalation of tensions. There's a decent chance this "deal" will make things worse. 

    But i'm honestly not sure if trump is smart enough to understand this plan isn't going anywhere. He might know it is just a stunt for a few cheap political points. Or he might honestly believe that he is some kind of brilliant statesman who can solve the issues of the middle east by picking sides and pissing people off. If the people around him told him that was what this was, he would probably believe it. 
  • armoredcat
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    It's hard to say. All potential solutions to the conflict have issues. We're aware that Palestine universally sponsors terrorism against Israel right? Why do they need a state?
  • armoredcat
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    --> @HistoryBuff

  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @armoredcat
    It's hard to say. All potential solutions to the conflict have issues. 
    of course. It is a very complicated and difficult issue to resolve. But pretending like you are a neutral negotiator, then taking Israel's side on every issue is definitely not a path that is going to bring positive results. 

    We're aware that Palestine universally sponsors terrorism against Israel right?
    You're aware that Israel is actively blockading food and medicine from being brought into Palestine? And that they are systematically stealing and settling land that belongs to the Palestinians?

    The Palestinians have and continue to do shitty things to Israel. Israel has and continues to do shitty things to the Palestinians. Neither side is innocent in this. The difference is that israel holds most of the power in this relationship. They have billions in military hardware to pound the Palestinians with. They are occupying Palestinian land. Israel holds most of the cards but expects the Palestinians to make all the concessions. 

    Why do they need a state?
    Israel could just decide to make them all Israeli citizens. But then Israel would become a palestinian dominated state so that is not going to happen. The only other possible path forward is to give the Palestinians their own state separate from israel. 
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @armoredcat
    There's no sane reason why Palestine can't be given a state without taking land from Israel. Tossing aside the terrorist argument.

  • Greyparrot
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    --> @armoredcat
    There's also the Chance that Hamas might negotiate now that Trump cut off the ATM machine by killing Soleimani.

    These 2 events seem tied together.
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Greyparrot
    There's no sane reason why Palestine can't be given a state without taking land from Israel. Tossing aside the terrorist argument.
    Agreed. However Trump's plan means Israel refuses to give back any of the land they have been stealing. It makes the deal a non-starter.

    There's also the Chance that Hamas might negotiate now that Trump cut off the ATM machine by killing Soleimani.
    This sentence makes no sense. Solemani has already been replaced by an even more hard liner. His death did not change Iranian policy. If anything Iran will want it's allies to increase attacks for revenge. 




  • Greyparrot
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    This sentence makes no sense. Solemani has already been replaced by an even more hard liner. His death did not change Iranian policy. If anything Iran will want its allies to increase attacks for revenge. 
     With what money? Even the most corrupt EU nations are too afraid to cross America's economic blockade of Iran now.


  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Greyparrot
     With what money?
    They are a large country with a big population. The US has been trying to destroy Iran for decades. They have been applying "maximum pressure" for a long time. It didn't work and it isn't going to. 


    Even the most corrupt EU nations are too afraid to cross America's economic blockade of Iran now.
    I don't see how this is relevant to your point. The US had already done that before they murdered Solemani. His death didn't change Iranian policy. what it did do is piss off alot of dangerous people who will be out for revenge. 


  • Greyparrot
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    --> @HistoryBuff
    I don't see how this is relevant to your point. The US had already done that before they murdered Solemani. His death didn't change Iranian policy. what it did do is piss off alot of dangerous people who will be out for revenge. 

    You're correct, but you didn't read what I wrote.

  • Greyparrot
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    You have a confluence of 4 major seemingly unrelated events that spell the end of the EU economic support for Iran and by extension, Hamas.

    1) Brexit.

    2) Shooting down of a plane with hundreds of Canadians and Ukrainians.

    3) Assassination of Soleimani.

    4) Iran declaring the Nuclear deal null and void with EU nations.

    All these events together signify a weakening EU, an EU no longer obligated or incentivized to provide economic support for Iran, and an EU unwilling to cause problems with the USA.

    This isn't the same climate as 2 years ago when Trump increased economic sanctions.

    Hamas isn't going to be funded anytime soon. In fact, there is considerable unrest in Iran right now with internal disagreements with the policy of supporting Hamas over Iranians.

    This is the ONLY thing that could possibly bring Hamas to the negotiating table.
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Greyparrot
    I1) Brexit.
    how is this related to iran?

    2) Shooting down of a plane with hundreds of Canadians and Ukrainians.
    this was a tragic accident caused by the increased tensions from the US assassinating an Iranian government official. I don't think this has significant impact on international diplomacy. 

    3) Assassination of Soleimani.
    If anything this solidifies foreign support for iran. They were the victim of a US sanctioned murder. 

    4) Iran declaring the Nuclear deal null and void with EU nations.
    The US already did that. Why do you think this will, in any way, be blamed on Iran? That is 100% trump's fault. 

    Hamas isn't going to be funded anytime soon.
    what does this even mean? nothing has changed in terms of the funding of hamas. You have provided no evidence that it has. 

    This is the ONLY thing that could possibly bring Hamas to the negotiating table.
    Maybe. But if the US is unilaterally taking Israel's side on every issue, it doesn't matter how much pressure you put on Hamas. They will never agree to let Israel keep most of their land, which is what trump's "peace" plan does. 
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @HistoryBuff

    what does this even mean? nothing has changed in terms of the funding of hamas. You have provided no evidence that it has. 
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Greyparrot
    lol that article doesn't say anything has changed lately in Hamas' support. Did you even read it?

    "But Tehran, the main backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, dramatically reduced its support in early 2012"
    "The movement also lost about $10m a month, said Mr Sabbah, when Egypt's Islamist President Mohammed Morsi was overthrown in 2013."
    It says their level of support changed 8 years ago. 

    For all you know Iran will ramp up support Hamas as payback for the US' betrayals since trump became president. 


  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Greyparrot
    i'm not sure what that massive blob of text is supposed to be for. 
  • Swagnarok
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    Not entirely true. The Palestinian state would get $50 Billion dollars, formal US recognition as a sovereign entity, and some land which they don't currently have. They would probably have to give up land which has already been de facto taken from them but which they still claim as theirs, but it doesn't seem to be worse than the current status quo.

    IMO the deal should've offered right of return to Palestinians who have the documentation to prove they had been residents of Israel who were expelled during the various mid-20th century conflicts. Assuming the most recent wave of expellees would've been in 1973, the absolute youngest of these would be 46 years old now, generally considered to be past "military age". In addition, the pressures of uprooting themselves from their homes to live in a foreign country with a high cost of living without any social safety net, combined with the fact that at least some would lack documentation, would deter most applicable persons from making the trip, so the overall impact on Israeli society would be significant but not catastrophic.
    This condition would allow the Palestinians to save face by receiving de facto acknowledgement that *some* of their own people were wrongly treated by Israel, which would remove a significant emotional barrier to a concrete settlement. And in return for this, the Palestinians would have to give up a claimed right of return for their own who were born outside of Israel. This in turn would shift the conversation towards allowing a fair deal to those Palestinians kept by their host Arab countries from integrating into these societies as full citizens. The burden of action would then rest with these countries, and away from Israel.
  • Dr.Franklin
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    terrible move, leave them alone, there will never be peace, instead focus on securing North Africa as that's where the natural gas is, better ourselves with the Kurds, and stabilize Iraq and support the Iraqi GOVERNMENT, not the protesters
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Dr.Franklin
    terrible move, leave them alone, there will never be peace, instead focus on securing North Africa as that's where the natural gas is,
    that's just blatant imperialism. 

    better ourselves with the Kurds, and stabilize Iraq and support the Iraqi GOVERNMENT, not the protesters
    both the iraqi government and the iraqi people are sick of the US and their murders and bombings. 
  • Dr.Franklin
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    that's just blatant imperialism. 
    No, the fate of Europe is in North Africa

    both the iraqi government and the iraqi people are sick of the US and their murders and bombings. 

    what murders,what bombing, the iraqi surge worked and obama fucked it up
  • HistoryBuff
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    --> @Swagnarok
    The Palestinian state would get $50 Billion dollars
    in exchange for never getting most of their land back. That is a tiny, tiny compensation. 

    <br>
    formal US recognition as a sovereign entity
    so? the US will have to recognize any Palestinian state that eventually is created. This is in no way a concession to them. 

    and some land which they don't currently have
    true. they would get some of their land back. Land they already own. But they would have to give up alot of land they currently own but Israel has stolen. 

     but it doesn't seem to be worse than the current status quo.
    Maybe, maybe not. The proposed plan gives the Palestinians "a path" to becoming a state. There would still be time for Israel to dick them around some more. 

    The burden of action would then rest with these countries, and away from Israel.
    no, it really wouldn't. Israel has stolen huge swathes of Palestinian land. Offering a token apology doesn't really change that. 
  • ethang5
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    There will never be a solution until the Palestinians give up the delusion that Israel is their land.

    Thank God we finally have a President not hoodwinked by that nonsense.


  • Greyparrot
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    --> @ethang5
    There is also unrest in the Gaza strip with Muslims upset at Hamas promoting political propaganda in every mosque. It's like having to listen to Hillary supporters in your church 24/7...weilding batons.
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @Swagnarok
    Absolutely the only 2 things Israel wants is the Golan Heights and a limited right to return. That's not even close to being fucking unreasonable.
  • ethang5
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    --> @Greyparrot
    Trumps plan is to force the Palestinians to open their eyes to reality. It is brilliant.

    What liberals will not tell us here are two things. First, that for the first time, Islamic countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain are not outright against the plan.

    The second thing is, they will not fess up to a history of failed peace attempts. They can only fail, and attack others who try.

    For the first time in history, it isn't the Muslim world against a western peace plan for Palestinians. Trump did that.
  • Greyparrot
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    --> @ethang5
    Yah but it will be hard for Palestine to drop the idea of unlimited right of return as it essentially forces Israel to become a sanctuary nation for anyone claiming to be Palestinian, essentially eradicating the nation off the map.