Nightless Sensor QF Mafia - DP2

Author: Bullish ,

Posts

Read-only
Total: 27
Bullish
Bullish's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 1,188
2
3
6
Bullish's avatar
Bullish
2
3
6
Nightless Sensor QF Mafia - DP2

Died last DP:

Lunatic - mafia
WaterPhoenix - town

Living players:

1. Speedrace
2. oromagi
3. drafterman
4. Ragnar

Mod note:

Sensor results - last DP's wagon consisted of [Ragnar, speed, drafter, oro]. The wagon contains exactly 1 scum (obviously).

With 4 players alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch.

This DP lasts ~24 hours. DP2 ends 02/22 15:30 EST.



Bullish
Bullish's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 1,188
2
3
6
Bullish's avatar
Bullish
2
3
6
--> @drafterman @oromagi @Ragnar @Speedrace
dp2
oromagi
oromagi's avatar
Debates: 99
Posts: 5,653
7
10
11
oromagi's avatar
oromagi
7
10
11
--> @drafterman
I have little insight.  It seems like everybody has the pm, although drafter just said "town confirmed" rather than offering a hint at the pm.

VTL Drafterman

because he is the only smart enough to pull that maneuver off.



oromagi
oromagi's avatar
Debates: 99
Posts: 5,653
7
10
11
oromagi's avatar
oromagi
7
10
11
UNVOTE

Draft's last post DP1 doesn't make sense as scum. 

VTL Speed
drafterman
drafterman's avatar
Debates: 6
Posts: 5,659
3
6
9
drafterman's avatar
drafterman
3
6
9
It's Oro

Vtl oro

Bullish
Bullish's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 1,188
2
3
6
Bullish's avatar
Bullish
2
3
6
Official Vote Count

Speed (1/3) - oro,
Oro (1/3) - drafter,

Not voting: speed, Ragnar,

Speedrace
Speedrace's avatar
Debates: 63
Posts: 6,174
4
9
11
Speedrace's avatar
Speedrace
4
9
11
--> @oromagi
I'm 70% sure it's drafter actually. He's the only one who hasn't mentioned the "ur town" (you explicitly said it in yours)

My problem is that, if you're Mafia, there's almost no way Lunatic didn't get a message from you about the "ur town" to use himself. My guess is drafter realized something was up and just played along without specifically saying what it was, and Lunatic didn't figure it out until it was too late

Speedrace
Speedrace's avatar
Debates: 63
Posts: 6,174
4
9
11
Speedrace's avatar
Speedrace
4
9
11
--> @drafterman
Why oro
Speedrace
Speedrace's avatar
Debates: 63
Posts: 6,174
4
9
11
Speedrace's avatar
Speedrace
4
9
11
--> @oromagi
The ideal scenario is that we have all town voting to lynch a mafia, since that instantly outs the remaining mafia.

The next best scenario is all but one town + 1 mafia voting to lynch a townie, since that instantly outs one of the mafia.

The other scenarios are helpful in narrowing things down or possibly confirming town.

Point is, if you are town, it is in your best interest to lynch someone as fast as possible before mafia can get in on that wagon.

Why doesn't this make sense as Mafia? If anything it helps Mafia because of its flawed logic
Ragnar
Ragnar's avatar
Debates: 36
Posts: 1,914
5
9
10
Ragnar's avatar
Ragnar
5
9
10
My gut feeling is either Oro or Drafter.

Drafter is quick on his feet, so if scum could figure out what Speed and I did at the start.

Mafia of course could have been given a copy of the message, or chanced that there’s was just a one word variant (town/mafia); so it could still be Oro.

Speed’s speed at recognizing what I was doing, gives favorable odds to him being town.

Of course Lunatic’s lunaticic behavior either confirms me as town, or he is playing one hell of a long con.

drafterman
drafterman's avatar
Debates: 6
Posts: 5,659
3
6
9
drafterman's avatar
drafterman
3
6
9
--> @Speedrace
Because it's not you me or Ragnar
drafterman
drafterman's avatar
Debates: 6
Posts: 5,659
3
6
9
drafterman's avatar
drafterman
3
6
9
I recognize what you two were doing which is why I said you were semi-confirmed. Because either you believe that was town only knowledge in which case you guys are confirmed. Or you believe it isn't town only knowledge in which case all of it's meaningless.
Speedrace
Speedrace's avatar
Debates: 63
Posts: 6,174
4
9
11
Speedrace's avatar
Speedrace
4
9
11
--> @drafterman
If mafia knew then Lunatic would be alive, so obviously it isn't meaningless. That's why I don't think the one person who explicitly said it wouldn't tell his mafia teammate
Speedrace
Speedrace's avatar
Debates: 63
Posts: 6,174
4
9
11
Speedrace's avatar
Speedrace
4
9
11
But mafia doesn't even get an NK so it doesn't matter guys lol

VTL drafterman

If it's not him then we just lol Oro next DP, easy game
Speedrace
Speedrace's avatar
Debates: 63
Posts: 6,174
4
9
11
Speedrace's avatar
Speedrace
4
9
11
--> @oromagi @Ragnar
Above
Speedrace
Speedrace's avatar
Debates: 63
Posts: 6,174
4
9
11
Speedrace's avatar
Speedrace
4
9
11
kill Oro next DP*

Ragnar
Ragnar's avatar
Debates: 36
Posts: 1,914
5
9
10
Ragnar's avatar
Ragnar
5
9
10
--> @drafterman @oromagi @Speedrace
So I realized there’s a reverse incentive trick to this. We can town confirm one person by them not voting, so long as the lynch victim is a team player who votes for themselves. This of course assumes we target the wrong person.

By doo g this, if we’re wrong and it’s neither Oro nor Drafter, town still has a 50% chance at victory.
Speedrace
Speedrace's avatar
Debates: 63
Posts: 6,174
4
9
11
Speedrace's avatar
Speedrace
4
9
11
--> @Ragnar
It takes three votes to lynch, and the only person not voting will be the dead one lol
Speedrace
Speedrace's avatar
Debates: 63
Posts: 6,174
4
9
11
Speedrace's avatar
Speedrace
4
9
11
--> @Ragnar
Oh I didn't see the part about voting themselves. In that case it's a perfect plan. You're pretty much confirmed town because Mafia would never suggest that
drafterman
drafterman's avatar
Debates: 6
Posts: 5,659
3
6
9
drafterman's avatar
drafterman
3
6
9
--> @Bullish
VTL drafterman
Speedrace
Speedrace's avatar
Debates: 63
Posts: 6,174
4
9
11
Speedrace's avatar
Speedrace
4
9
11
--> @Ragnar
Vote please
Bullish
Bullish's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 1,188
2
3
6
Bullish's avatar
Bullish
2
3
6
Official Vote Count

drafter (2/3) - speed, drafter,
Speed (1/3) - oro,

Not voting: Ragnar,

drafterman
drafterman's avatar
Debates: 6
Posts: 5,659
3
6
9
drafterman's avatar
drafterman
3
6
9
--> @Speedrace
There's already a vote on you. We could just do you.
Speedrace
Speedrace's avatar
Debates: 63
Posts: 6,174
4
9
11
Speedrace's avatar
Speedrace
4
9
11
--> @drafterman
We need Ragnar to vote because he's the one who's basically confirmed, Oro has to be left out so the sensor ability helps us

Ragnar
Ragnar's avatar
Debates: 36
Posts: 1,914
5
9
10
Ragnar's avatar
Ragnar
5
9
10
--> @Bullish
VTL Drafterman