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Bloodline Day Phase 1
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586
As I said, his behavior is relatively null.
To clarify this because there might otherwise be confusion, he reversed course on not hypothesizing as to potential mafia roles based upon analysis of the shows villains. This usually would be sus AF, because hypothesizing on mafia roles doesn't give mafia any more information than they already have. But his general overt paranoia in reasoning can more than account for the initial refusal.
He's still null, but the sus'ness of his behavior has been dispelled fmpov.
Also not sure why people are all over Dudz? His reasoning isn't all too good for why people are sus. But it wasn't from the get-go with being suspicious of standard "IWWT" statements. His further reasoning is only evidencing even further fmpov that he isn't faking the suspicions, rather he thinks they are valid to be suspicious of.
For example, him pointing out that his PM does not mention the connection in backstory between his claimed character and rationals claimed character.
If you helped through John's dad abuse, TUF would have mentioned that in my role background which he didn't
This otherwise ignores that mods do not have to, nor do they usually, minutely detail backstory in role PM's.
Indeed, if you take my claim as true, it's pretty obvious the justifications are loose ones, and provided backstory is general, not detailed, and otherwise is missing quite a bit. But that's usually the case anyways.
The more I read of dudz, the more im convinced he's a relatively noob town who doesn't quite have a solid grasp on what is, and what is not, scummy.
For example
Your hesitance to do claim this is the reason why I am voting you
Except, hesistance in claiming a main character is more than reasonable for a towny to exhibit. Main characters generally equal power roles. Claiming a main character puts a target on ur back. I would be hesitant to put a target on my back in the situation too.
No no that's not the point, the point is he didn't say what he was, he claimed a townie and win with town. What his town role and name? That is what makes it scummy
No, this isn't scummy at all, even if it's not said for the intent of having something for an LD to check. Both a towny and a mafia would claim they win with the town. This is just absurdly poor logic, that is setting up a no-win situation. If a towny is truthful and says they win with the town, they're scummy? That doesn't make sense in the least.
This is some straight up presumption of guilt type stuff.
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@Vader
I have played in some mafia games on DDO, call me a newb idrc.
It wasn't an insult, it was an observation based off the reads and justification you've provided for them thus far. The reads don't make much sense and/or are not factoring in standard operating procedures(SOP).
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@Buddamoose
TheHammer unironically didn't hammer me when he had the chance and was active to do so, while I agree his ending of the good logic ends up being faulty logic with that 100% BS, I like him as town personally.
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@RationalMadman
TheHammer unironically didn't hammer me when he had the chance
Understanding pulling off a ML of a main character would be beneficial. Doing so would have otherwise exposed him as even scummier than he has shown himself to be. Mafia don't benefit from 1 v 1 trades, that results in them losing, every time.
I'm in the midst of compiling a detailed case against him
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@Buddamoose
"A utility lynch on someone who is from your point of view most likely town? Wow, are you trying to appear scummy, cause boy are you accomplishing it."
15% chance of being scum means he's more likely than average, assuming there's only one
Supa's annoying posts are more than a good enough reason to want to lynch him 28 posts in the game
Reading what happened. Unvote
Reads sometime soon.
I believe RM is town.
Mafia is probably John and someone else.
On TheHammer
And why he is 100% sus AF, and likely scum
I've already previously pointed out that TheHammer is advocating for lynches off of things that aren't indicative of affiliation.
His posts give me cancer
As a reason for dudz lynch.
and the 100% chance we'd be cancelling his anti-town utility regardless.
As the reason for Rationals lynch.
It's important to remember that mafia are incentivized to appear as town, and consequentially incentivized to appear as if they are scumhunting. This doesn't just lead to slips in holding more knowledge that they otherwise should, but it also leads to their scumhunting oft lacking in certain areas.
Like for example, behaviors. Already knowing the affiliation of people is a hell of a detriment in trying to produce analysis that examines behavior to determine affiliation. This leads directly to a reliance upon things that aren't indicative of affiliation to decide lynches, such as...
His posts give me cancer
and
anti-town utility
This also leads "fluff" posting, in the sense that they often post recounting of actions, and probability of being town/scum, but do not link between. Consider that along with him clearly advocating a lynch of someone he views as most likely(85%) town.
In case anyone is confused, this is what happened:1. RM said earlier that the only options for character claiming were everyone keeps their character a secret or everyone claims and we try to work out the liars from there2. RM character claims3. RM references his earlier statement in an attempt to strong arm everyone else into character claimingThere's still an 85% chance he's town imo, but a lynch might be worth it considering the 15% chance he's scum and the 100% chance we'd be cancelling his anti-town utility regardless.
Note, the jump from action > probability of town/scum. He is clearly implying mass claim and strongarming people into claiming is scummy and/or anti-town in utility. But the problem with that is neither is true and he knows it.
This is where consistency in application becomes important, I outright advocated for a mass character claim and am aggressively strongarming people into claiming. By his measure i should have much more negative utility, and regardless of whether I'm more or less likely town, should be his primary lynch target.
Yet he goes after Rational? I wonder why? Clearly because he doesn't give a crap about utility anyways. He is contriving not only his reads, but his analysis itself is otherwise exposed as such as well, because it's not even consistent in its own primary rationale. It's being selectively applied.
The previous point operates as an exposure of the inconsistency in holding either as scummy as well.
__________
Further cementing Hammer as sus AF and probable scum we arrive at his potential motives. Given that "utility" was thoroughly debunked as a potential motive, we are left wondering what the motive may have been. Consider his behavior
- Advocation for lynches based off things not even remotely indicative of affiliation
- Inconsistent application of primary rationale, vis a vis "anti-town utility"
- Lack of linking actions to probabilistic determinations
- Wanting to lynch someone who he views as most likely(85% town).
And ask yourself, are there any realistic and reasonable town motives to these actions? I hold there are not.
- Lack of reasonable town motives
- advocacy for courses of action that would, by his own measure, most likely benefit mafia and disadvantage town
-inconsistency in application of rationale, primary or otherwise.
He's violating all three of this core differentiators between contrived/faked scumhunting and genuine scumhunting.
Full claim or not, Hammer is the best candidate for lynching so far, hands down fmpov.
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@TheHammer
15% chance of being scum means he's more likely than average, assuming there's only one
Yeah, at this point it's becoming pretty clear ur pulling shit out of ur rear. And you wanna talk about "anti-town utility" 😂😂
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@TheHammer
There will be minimum two maximum three scum in a game of this size.
If it's framer combined with GF as I and budda have ended up agreeing is a likely combo its likely it's only 2 as this is a good counterbalance to the power of the alignment checking role (perhaps a colleague character of John's who wasn't his ally that I won't mention the name of) and that means they can do 2v7 and it's still fair on town and them.
Otherwise it's 3v6, this is never 1v8 also because both Rob and John have to be part of the Mafia given the main chars of the show.
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@TheHammer
Supa's annoying posts are more than a good enough reason to want to lynch him 28 posts in the game
Lol... Please do explain how whether or not something is indicative of affiliation, changes based upon how many posts there are in the game?
UNVOTE
15% chance of being scum means he's more likely than average, assuming there's only one
And why would you assume that in a 9 player game? 1/8 ratio is a far cry from 1/3-1/4.
Beyond that, as I pointed out. Ur pulling things out of ur rear. What quantifies the other 4.4 percent jump to 15 in this math? Why is it only 4.4% and not some other arbitrary added percentage? Ur trying to pass off the appearance of critical analysis with percentage of probability, but usIng the percentages in the manner you are, is far from a critical application. Ergo, contrived AF.
I don't want to spoil anything and it's not AT ALL about the equal sort of daddy issues but due to the character morally and the function they have to the show:
I notice a huge parallel between Danny Rayburn and Tommy Egan from the show Power. This is not entirely relevant but it also is because in the show Power, Tommy who is an antivillain type char fluctuates at many times (won't spoil which he ends up as) between being an antivillain and a full-blown villain who you root against. He is one of the only characters I've ever seen so capable (fantastic actor) at making you feel both sorry for and yet entirely rooted against... Shocked at how he wins every time (that I'll spoil).
Danny is very similar in his function to the storyline (literal opposite to an antihero) and likely joined gangs and the likes throughout the show given his ties to drug dealing so I am very sure that if there is by ANY chance 2 mafia involved here (2v2v5) or something, Danny is a HUGE power role in his pair.
don't want to spoil anything big about Power I meant*
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@Vader
On a side note, I'm even more sus of GP at this point. Pouring over this DP I haven't seen anything put forth as why dudz is behaving in a manner that ls any worse than null. He's being overzealous and pinpointing things not remotely indicative of affiliation. Normally I would be sus of that, but being sus of "IWWT" statements belies a general lack of a fine understanding of the game. Ergo, he's still getting his sea legs under him. This even further evidenced by him asking
What do you mean by justification?
This being a core aspect of themed games. Characters having the roles they do is usually justified in PM's.
@Supadudz- Basically I'm asking for you to paraphrase your pm so I can see if the details TUF provided match with the role you have, even if just loosely.
Furthermore, his rationale appears to be being consistently applied. For example, he FOS'd both rational and I for "IWWT" statements among other reason(s). This consistency being indicative of it being genuine, albeit seemingly misguided, as opposed to contrived/faked analysis.
Town Read
Supadudz
Lean Town
Rational
Null
Drafter
Danielle
Vaarka
Earth
Suspicious
Greyparrot
Scum Read
TheHammer
____________
The 4 nulls are exclusively the people who have not, or barely, posted. Tbh, GP is sus, not a outright scum read. His behavior still has realistic town motives and can be evidenced as possibly town in part. I'm just getting sus vibes from his BW onto dudz, but he has bw'd before as town.
Claims
Supadudz - Jane Rayburn - Vanilla
Buddamoose- Nolan Rayburn - Innocent Child
Rational - Sally Rayburn - ????
Unclaimed
Greyparrot
Earth
Danielle
Vaarka
Drafter
Hammer
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@Buddamoose
I would assume one scum on a website where PMs can't be sent to more than one person.And why would you assume that in a 9 player game? 1/8 ratio is a far cry from 1/3-1/4.
As for why 15%, you said it. It's an arbitrary and small difference, 20% works just as well. That's a dumb thing to criticize.
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@TheHammer
As for why 15%, you said it. It's an arbitrary and small difference, 20% works just as well. That's a dumb thing to criticize.
So it's dumb to point out that the way ur using probability is misleading and disgenuinely shades your analysis as being quantifiably susbtantiated? But where is that substantiation? Certainly not in anything you've stated so far.
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@Buddamoose
I'm starting to think there is at least one probable scum in the 4 that voted for RM....
I'm leaning toward either Drafter or Supa.
Unclaimed main character is town until we have reason to believe otherwise. People FOSing such a person is inherently suspect. We have 3 claims, 2 of which are full claims. Supa's response to RM's claim seems manufactured. I'd like to get Supa's claim then either lynch him or whoever else is the scummist. I don't know anything about this series, so I'm inclined to believe RM's summary of his character unless someone has an alternate analysis.
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@drafterman
What do you think about RM's 2 mafia teams theory?
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@Earth
Dumb
Supa's response to RM's claim seems manufactured
I agree, it standalone seems manufactured, because it's over something, shall we say, less than sensible. But his rationale is being consistently applied, even if less than sensible. That's fmpov more in line with a genuine read as opposed to a contrived one.
Supa full claimed already, he was the first to claim...
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@Greyparrot
And what lead you to exclude Earth from that list?
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@Greyparrot
Also, why must there have been one scum on Rationals wagon?