Bloodline Day Phase 1

Author: Lunatic

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#301
Buddamoose
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@Vader
A claim of vanilla could POTENTIALLY lead a mafia to kill me. I wasn't implying they would

No, it wouldn't. Mafia have no incentive to kill vanillas and every incentive to target other players who arent vanilla as they are potential power roles, such as cop or doc. 

A vanilla claim affords a scum fake claiming it a convenient defense for why they haven't been nk'd.

A truthful vanilla claim, especially early game of ones own volition, narrows down potential power roles. Though I understand why you did it, and think you are genuine in your belief it was a reasonable action and/or helpful. It wasn't, it was harmful to town. 

This isn't indicative of affiliation, but it is gonna piss people off. 
#302
Buddamoose
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**Unofficial Vote Count**

Drafterman (1/5) - Supadudz

TheHammer (2/5) - Buddamoose, Drafterman

Supadudz (1/5) - TheHammer

Earth (1/5) - Rational
_____________________

If I missed anything, sorry ahead of time

#303
Greyparrot
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@Buddamoose
Because I already knew why Earth voted, i wanted to hear from the other 2.
#304
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@Greyparrot
Because I already knew why Earth voted, i wanted to hear from the other 2.

I'll admit, this is a feasible explanation. 


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#305
Lunatic
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And you drown before the water lets you in...

Drafterman (1/5) - Supadudz

TheHammer (2/5) - Buddamoose, Drafterman

Supadudz (1/5) - TheHammer

Earth (1/5) - Rational

(thanks budda for helping with this)
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#306
Lunatic
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15 hours remaining in the phase.
#307
Buddamoose
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Town Reads

Supadudz- all signs point to clueless towny fmpov

Lean Town

Rational- he generally acts suspicious of inherently. His character claim is a signifigant character and in a show filled with characters that are a far cry from "good", a character that admits to their misgivings and tries to correct them is, as drafter pointed out, as good as ur gonna get. 

Drafter- His analysis is brief, but it's consistent in its rationale fmpov, and is exhibiting typical towny skepticism in that manner as well. He's also made multiple good points with his analysis independent of the aforementioned reasons. 

Danielle- Less brief than Drafter, but otherwise exhibiting typical townie skepticism and caution. Particularly in her analysis of Hammer and Rational and asking for any information on their play history so as to properly gauge their behavior. 

Null

Vaarka- nothing he's done is indicative of affiliation to me thus far. I'm open to anything I may otherwise be missing

Sus

Earth- not much activity, one total read, that being, "I think RM is town." This lack of substantive activity is concerning. 

Scum Read

Hammer- I'll spare outlining the case yet again

_________________

If my reads are accurate, then scum lies in Vaarka, Greyparrot, Earth, and Hammer by PoE. 2/4 being scum as 2 mafia v 7 town seems most probable from a standpoint of typical ratios of 1/3-1/4. 
#308
Buddamoose
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@Lunatic
thanks budda for helping with this

Np 👍
#309
Greyparrot
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@Buddamoose
This is so weird..I have town vibe on RM and susp on Supa and your reads are polar opposite...
#310
Buddamoose
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Whoops, I forgot Greyparrot, he's sus because I still cant help but feel his behavior towards me early game was just... off

Independent of that, he has not produced something that is indicative of affiliation beyond mere gut instinct. As with Vaarka I'm open to anything I'm missing. 

If that continues it's gonna become sus AF to me tho, because fmpov at some point it becomes more likely the person is intentionally obfuscating affiliation in posts as opposed to unintentionally or accidentally obfuscating it. Something Danielle also pointed out with her claim that it looks like GP and Earth are being extremely cautious with what they post. 

Given enough time townies otherwise will show they are town in behavior, mafia will show they are mafia in behavior, imho.
#311
Buddamoose
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@Greyparrot
This is so weird..I have town vibe on RM and susp on Supa and your reads are polar opposite

In regards to Supa our reads are opposite, sure. But that likely is because we differ in whether Supas posts appear genuine or contrived. 
#312
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@Buddamoose
My behavior is off cause we disagree on Supa..and your attacks on RM were odd to me. If you didn't have the no cc role claim, I'd put you as susp too.
#313
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@Buddamoose
There's also other things you wrote that were fshy, but it doesn't matter cause I don't susp you yet.
#314
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@Greyparrot
and your attacks on RM were odd to me. If you didn't have the no cc role claim, I'd put you as susp too.

My one actual "attack" or FoS on RM was because I wasn't finding anywhere in which I could confirm Sally Rayburn did what he was claiming about her otherwise trying to make amends for her own misdeeds. Along with him claiming Sally Rayburn is main character, when she's not. She's a signifigant character, but not the main one from what I've researched of it. 

I would even hazard to say it doesn't seem like there is really a true main character of the show. But can otherwise see how both town and mafia would be incentivized to lie/exaggerate about the signifigance of their character to spare themselves when at L-1. Self preservation results in irrational behavior, period.  



#315
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Self preservation results in irrational behavior, period

Not period. Should I say, it often results in irrational behavior. Not always as period would imply in retrospect.
#316
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@Greyparrot
There's also other things you wrote that were fshy, but it doesn't matter cause I don't susp you yet.

Eh, I disagree. I'd like to hear them. Not cause I'm necessarily looking to argue about them, rather, because it will shine a light on what you find to be "fishy" in general, no?
#317
Buddamoose
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@Greyparrot
If you didn't have the no cc role claim, I'd put you as susp too

I do like the consistency in application I can see from this though. Not specifically in uncc'd role claim, but CC's in general. Earlier you mentioned that vanilla is not cc'able, ergo suspicious. 

I may disagree with me being uncc'd in my role claim makes me town. But your FoS on Supa actually is consistent with this if this is one of the primary factors your using thus far in gauging that determination. 

I'm gonna slide you into the lean town category. 

So PoE via my reads now would leave scum being in Hammer, Earth, and Vaarka.






#318
drafterman
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@Vader
A claim of vanilla could POTENTIALLY lead a mafia to kill me. I wasn't implying they would.
Why do you think this?

#319
Vaarka
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What does everyone think of Grey? I feel like his posts are kinda generic and forced (or, at the very least, not very genuine). 

On page 11 btw
#320
Vaarka
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@Vader
I am not going to contribute to people bitching at each other
lol this made me laugh. I can't discredit that he's right
#321
Vaarka
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@Danielle
Watching TV is scum indicative 
#322
drafterman
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@Vaarka
What does everyone think of Grey?
GP gonna GP


#323
RationalMadman
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I am dying tonight, good luck later in the game. Sheep my reads:

Earth+Drafter = John+Rob

Danielle+Hammer = Danny+Eric
#324
Vaarka
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@drafterman
pls expand. I've never really played with GP (not recently anyway)
#325
Vaarka
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Next Vaarka prediction: Danielle and Drafter
#326
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Wait, I think Danielle scum-slipped. She said that we had concluded that John was GF and that Rob was an investigative role but this doesn't add up and was not at all what we concluded.

Unvote Earth VTL Danielle.


#327
Vaarka
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@Vader
lose the focus on theme and start the focus on behavior. No one is dead yet so we have no lead on what theme could be. 
#328
Vaarka
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Next Vaarka prediction: Danielle and Drafter
Though I'm still sus of Grey js

#329
Vaarka
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Reminder that the DP ends in about 6-7 hours
#330
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@Vaarka
Well, I guess I haven't either. I've been out of the game for half a decade. But I recall GP being a hard one to pin down. Never really responded to pressure, acted in a cavalier and unpredictable manner.