Getting the US out of debt

Author: Alec

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blamonkey
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@Greyparrot
If you're going to respond to me, at least tag me. 

Whether women “accept” lower pay or not is inconsequential. Employers offer less prestigious positions and pay for women across multiple industries. Prevailing stereotypes still exist, and employers subscribe to them. They routinely rate women’s job skills as lower than their male counterparts even when qualifications are the absolute same, as shown through identical resume studies wherein employers rate the likelihood of hiring particular candidates with identical resumes but either feminine or male names (1) (2). This is especially prevalent in male dominated industries, where the widespread perception is that women perform worse than their male counterparts (1).

Your personal observations about the proficiency of female workers is noted, but in the event that one of those colleagues was just as competent to you, all else being equal, she would not be paid as much, and performance reviews would rate her as less competent. This is not to suggest that being male is an automatic guarantee of success, but it does contribute to employment and pay.

Oh, and as for illegal immigrants, the reason that they work for less money than what would, on average, be paid to an American is that they predominantly occupy low-skilled, manual labor jobs. As for mid-to-high skilled work, a prospective employee may be willing to be paid less, but if they don’t have the qualifications the employer is looking for, they won’t be hired. I may want to become a surgeon and only ask for $4 dollars a year to increase my chances of being hired, but if I have no idea what a scalpel is, I won’t be hired. Medical malpractice suits would eradicate any savings the employers enjoyed. Even for low-income customer service jobs, qualifications are important. Most companies value previous work experience for the position they want filled and would much rather hire a decent floor-staff member who worked for two years already in a comparable position at another company than a 17-year-old who asks for less pay, but is still in high school and has demands he must meet outside of work. Of course, this depends on the pool of labor available to companies, so many do subsidize their bottom line with illegal immigrants when there aren’t enough native workers.

But again, this strays from the topic I was posting about, which is that the plan Athias proffered was insufficient in dealing with homelessness.

Sources

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@blamonkey
Your personal observations about the proficiency of female workers is noted, but in the event that one of those colleagues was just as competent to you, all else being equal, she would not be paid as much, and performance reviews would rate her as less competent. This is not to suggest that being male is an automatic guarantee of success, but it does contribute to employment and pay.

I think you might have hastily glossed over my point about the thousands of WOMEN only applying for my job and next to zero MEN applying for my job.

If you actually believe women on average work for less than I do, then there is no logical reason for me to feel in any way, shape, or form secure in my job.

My industry is near 95% women only. Why do you think my job is so secure? You tell me. Is it really because of my penis?

Nah, don't answer with another canned confirmation biased response.

The reason why I feel secure is because there is no actual competition. I don't have to compete with men, who actually do more work for less pay, regardless of what your biased studies state.

I am like that figurative transgendered athlete lapping the girls on the field. The women are just not nearly as hard to outpace as it was when I had to compete with men for a job. That's the cold hard reality outside of the confirmation bias narrative. As a smart, well educated and thoroughly lazy man, I have found the path of least resistance, and it is most definitely amongst the ranks of incompetent female labor.


blamonkey
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@Greyparrot
First, your position is singularly unique to you and not indicative of the aggregate labor market.

Second, I make no claim regarding your employment situation. For all I know, you live in outer space and work as a chef to extraterrestrial beings. Nor am I measuring the competence of you or the people trying to unseat you in whatever venerated position you occupy. Clearly, qualifications, competence, and company loyalty go a long way in employment, and labor markets differ based on location, available schooling, etc. This is why I used the term "all else being equal." If we were to only measure the impact of gender on hiring decisions, there would be a detectable bias in who gets hired. You could argue that other factors supplant the impact of gender, and I would probably agree. However, when qualifications are equal, as determined by identical resume tests which I've described before, people with feminine names happened to get rated lower by employers. This isn't a fluke, its a replicable study that 90% of the time finds that women tend to be discriminated against when it comes to employment and pay. 

You also repeat the claim that since women are paid less, companies will only hire women. Again, cost is not the only factor in employment. As you mentioned already, competence is important. However, implicit biases based on pervasive stereotypes affect employer decisions in pay. This is one reason that mothers get fewer days off when compared to fathers, receive far less starting pay, and are less likely to be rated competently (1). The common perception of mothers being loyal to their family more than the company is still prevalent and affects breadwinner women who eschew this stereotype. This stereotype still exists despite the fact that over 40% of households are headed by women (2).

Sources
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@blamonkey
Again, cost is not the only factor in employment. 

You mean like being born with a penis. I get it.

pervasive stereotypes affect employer decisions in pay.

Not on any meaningful level. Employers care about money, not genitalia or other social stereotypes, otherwise, robots wouldn't be replacing people.

The stigma against robots is far greater than any person male, female, or homeless. Yet they actually are worth hiring over some affirmative action employee recommended by the latest "Harvard study"

After the civil war, business owners rushed to employ the recently freed slaves, so much so that the south had to enact Jim Crow laws to make black employment illegal in many industries.
Those businesses employing blacks and catering to black customers didn't give a flying fuck about your latest social stereotype. They just wanted to make money. 

Businesses that follow the latest "Harvard study" guidelines on who to hire don't do nearly as well as the ones that simply hire the best for the job. Human ingenuity and business acumen in a competitive world always trumps the latest social fad on who is "socially hot" to employ. Every time.

Also, your Harvard study is functionally useless. There's no mention at all between perceived job output and actual job output. It only focused on the perceived job output with no actual output to compare to. Workers are always susceptible to the Dunning-Kruger effect since they are not the ones that actually have to pay for the lights and the small business loan monthly payments. Those kinds of one-sided studies are perfect for confirmation biased props, but little else.
blamonkey
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@Greyparrot
Not on any meaningful level. Employers care about money, not genitalia or other social stereotypes, otherwise, robots wouldn't be replacing people.

Robots can replace jobs that are simple, which is why the manufacturing sector has been hit particularly bad by automation. However, not all sectors are affected equally, and concerns about automation taking away everyone's jobs are largely overblown. Oftentimes, labor is simply "pushed" to another occupation due to automation, and oftentimes, automation is not at all associated with a decrease in job opportunities. For example, the number of bank tellers and ATMs rose in tandem with eachother (1). As it so happens, many occupations simply have some of their duties overtaken by robots, but not all. Some jobs, such as elevator operators, did become obsolete, but their duty to aid visitors and guiding people to the right office, was reallocated to other jobs such as security guards and receptionists (2). The aging workforce is predicted to have a 53% bigger impact on the workforce than automation (3). It's estimated that 50% of job activities can be automated right now (4). If that is the case, then why do these jobs still exist? 

In any case, you seem to think that employers are impervious from irrational thought when making hiring decisions. This is blatantly untrue. Regardless of actual output, it was shown that perceptions about productivity of certain genders play into hiring decisions when qualifications are equal. The only perceptible difference in near-identical resumes was the feminine or masculine name at the top of the document. When two equally qualified individuals are given different starting wages, that is a perceptible bias. We could recontextualize it, quantify it differently, or analyze the data in any fashion you want, but employers are not impervious to bias in hiring decisions. Nor are these employers solely focused on saving a buck. If someone isn't at all qualified for a position, no matter how paltry a pay they demand, they won't get hired. My first post actually demonstrated bias fairly well, with employers admitting to the fact that they don't want to hire homeless people due to fears of crime, tardiness, etc. There is a stigma attached to homeless people that employers recognize and subscribe to. Clearly, not every employer does this, but many are guided by implicit biases that are well documented. In any case, here is a smattering of what employers have to say about hiring homeless people in low-wage positions:

"I ask for an address because I want to see if they are stable and dependable, whether their roots are planted. I wouldn't hire a homeless personbecause he would be smelly and dirty. I sympathize with their plight,but in some cases it is their choice not to have a home" (5).

"...never hire a homeless person because I work with little childrenand their parents. They won't be impressed if they see that one of my employees is unkempt, smelly, a drug addict, alcoholic, and mentally ill" (5).

So, even if these homeless people would accept lower wages, these employers would not hire them due to perceptions and qualifications. Even if a homeless applicant is lucky enough to have their resume read, companies frequently utilize background check to look into applicants' mode of living (5). 

Sources

Greyparrot
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Regardless of actual output, it was shown that perceptions about productivity of certain genders play into hiring decisions when qualifications are equal. 

This is why every one of your analysis are functionally useless.

Disregarding actual output means you can show no functional discrepancy. How can you say there is a bias against something if the outputs were NEVER proven to be the same? It would be like claiming police were biased at people shooting guns at them and then claiming some sort of discrepancy over the norm or some social injustice. Ridiculous.

Assumptions are the bane of analysis.

In a competitive free market, employers that choose affirmative action employees over actual output are rewarded with bankruptcies.
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@Greyparrot
One cannot determine the output of a potential employee until after they are hired. As far as the employers knew, the two candidates they were supposed to grade had equal credentials and experience. Again, the only changed aspect of the resume was the feminine or male name at the top of the resume. This is in the pre-hiring process, therefore, there is no output to measure yet. 

Unless you suggest that absolutely no female candidate can equal a male in terms of delivering output, your argument doesn't really hold water. Employers looked at the resume, saw that 2 people had the same credentials, and then ranked one higher than the other. Perhaps these employers believed that women are worse employees in their field, but they can't offer proof of this. In fact, on average, women tend to be more productive than their male counterparts, or at least, equally competent if we are looking at current studies (1) (2) (3). Not every study agrees, and many find small differences in productivity, but even then, many are quick to point out that differences in productivity only account for 2/3 of the wage differences between men and women (4).

But again, these are individualized resumes I'm talking about. Statistics about overall productivity of a particular race, gender, ethnicity etc. should probably not factor into a hiring decision of one prospective employee. 


Sources


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@blamonkey
Unless you suggest that absolutely no female candidate can equal a male in terms of delivering output, your argument doesn't really hold water. 

And your argument holds no water assuming the opposite is true. That all females are equal to men with no data to back that up.

Is there a chance that a person shooting a gun at an officer will all of a sudden comply to authority? Sure. Is the police officer going to take that risk? Maybe.

Employers don't just simply hire people on the basis of interviews. They also have to look at who they,  their successful competitors, and failed competitors hired and ultimately fired.

And most importantly, they have to take a very long look at who their successful competitors are keeping on as valued employees.
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@Greyparrot
I offered 4 sources. Are you going to edit your comment to address them?
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@blamonkey
Not at all when your 1st source has the word "might" in it.

The second source has the word "may" in the 1st thesis statement.

The third source's thesis statement was a confirmation bias statement.

The fourth source throws the cost to the employer for retaining a worker into the ether, although they acknowledge the "mystical unexplained 1/3" exists...while admitting 2/3 can definitely be attributed to production incompetency.  The other 1/3 apparently has to be assumed from the "process of elimination (lol)" to be attributed to whether or not the worker has a penis, because the study refuses to look at other factors.

I noticed how nearly all of these studies rely heavily on worker testimonials and very little on employer testimonials. I already pointed out nearly every worker is subject to some form of Dunning-Kruger where a worker artificially overinflates their self-worth. That is a known psychological trait of all humans, which is why a competent researcher should be relying much more on employer testimonials and little to none of the worker testimonials to get accurate actual data on productivity.

Try a source with actual conclusive data, preferably one weighted with job creator data. I'd love to see the study that rewrites how millions of businesses operate in a free market.

Pretty sure I can expect more outliers and less of the general overall case data. Outliers will always produce biases.
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Not at all when your 1st source has the word "might" in it.

The second source has the word "may" in the 1st thesis statement.

Are studies only valid when they are 100% definitive? What about the results? How about the methodology?

As for the third source being a "confirmation bias statement," plainly did not look at the methodology or results at all.

The fourth source throws the cost to the employer for retaining a worker into the ether, although they acknowledge the "mystical unexplained 1/3" exists...while admitting 2/3 can definitely be attributed to production incompetency
Alright then. What is it attributed to? The GAO estimates a 7% gap that remains "unexplained" when factoring in occupations chosen, education, and other observable factors (1). The same conclusion was drawn by the Joint Economic Committee's study in 2010 (2).

I noticed how nearly all of these studies lie heavily on worker testimonials and very little on employer testimonials. I already pointed out nearly every worker is subject to some form of Dunning-Kruger where a worker artificially overinflates their self-worth. That is a known psychological trait of all humans, which is why a competent researcher should be relying much more on employer testimonials and little to none of the worker testimonials to get accurate actual data on productivity.

What worker testimonials are you referring to? One of them tracked the movements of workers. One of them looked at specific professions where females excel. One of them used randomized data samples from 3,000 people. The fourth one looked at economic data.


Sources

blamonkey
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@Greyparrot
Forgot to tag you. Look above.
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@blamonkey
Alright then. What is it attributed to? 

Probably not having a penis lol. Why is that even remotely a viable conclusion?
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One of them used randomized data samples from 3,000 people. 

How about some data from 3000 employers. You know, the people that go bankrupt if they don't compensate for Dunning-Kruger.
blamonkey
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@Greyparrot
Are you gonna edit the comment again? This seems to me like you ceded sarcastically. 
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@blamonkey
Ceding what? I'm waiting for actual data, not hypotheticals.

Show me some successful employers in a competitive industry that hire equally across the board among all spectrums. Prove to me with data that productivity is equal among genders with employer data. Examine the data and testimonials from successful employers explaining why they hire who they hire to maintain their competitive advantage.

While you are at it, show the employer testimonials from the failed ventures who hired the wrong people. Let's see the real discrepancies, not some mystical ether that is magically attributed to genitalia.
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@blamonkey
Are you gonna edit the comment again? This seems to me like you ceded sarcastically. 

Ok dude, if you wanna take this to the Ad Hom level, I'll just leave.
I'm not interested in that kind of banter.

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@Greyparrot
No, I didn't mean to ad hom you. You just have a tendency to make one post then edit it later, but the site doesn't email me when it's changed so I'm never alerted. I'll get to the post before this one in a bit.
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@Alec
we should take the U.S. debt and PUSH it somewhere else!
blamonkey
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@Greyparrot
Employers are free to use data regarding productivity to direct their hiring decisions. For blue collar work, it seems, there is a gap when measuring the female gender holistically. However, individuals tend to diverge from the average. And, if anything, the data I published shows that in some industries, women exceed their male colleagues in effectiveness and productivity (i.e. surgeons and general practitioners.) So, the prevailing wisdom that women are less capable workers is not necessarily supported by the data, and when it is, it's not exactly a vast gap in productivity. In fact, when accounting for visible differences in employment, education, productivity, and observable differences between women and men while they work, an unexplained gap is persistently found, and its usually between 4 and 7 percent. 

When measuring the credentials of prospective employees, males tend to be favored. If you're claim is that women are simply worse workers, and employers pick up on this when making hiring decisions, then I think I already proved my point. Pervasive stereotypes about how women work affect hiring decisions. If this is the case, and employers are paralyzed by hiring minority groups because they will go bankrupt if they do (like you said) then they are subject to biases, whether rational or not. Also, if businesses are so worried about hiring certain groups of people because doing so increases the chance of business failure, then why is it that over 50% of women are in the workforce? Why is it that the percentage is increasing? Surely, if women are dreadfully unequipped to do their jobs, the numbers of female employees should dwindle, not increase. 

Do other factors outstrip the importance of gender? Yes. That doesn't mean that there are no biases in employer decisions. Employers aren't robots and are subject to the same biases and ideas as other people. 

By the way, just to make this clear, it was not my intention to ad hom. It just seemed like an insubstantial post that you would expound upon, and I didn't know if that was the end of the conversation or not. 

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@Alec
It's in sheet 37.

Thank you. If I'm not mistaken, your 2020 budget proposes a nine trillion dollar increase in the Federal Budget, where 43% (5.4 Trillion) will be appropriated to Medicare 4 All. How is that not an increase in spending? What about the administrative and utilization costs?

There's 90 jobs on the list.  They would need a good reason to reject all 90 jobs.

Employers have training programs for prospective employees already put in place.  If they don't have the skills for one job, then they try a different job.  There's 90 jobs on the list.  They'll find something that they like.
There are billions of jobs. It's not farfetched to presume that at least 90, even when including a high margin of error, are infeasible. But that's not what I asked. What if they refuse? What if they don't have the skills? (Not all employment trains prospective employees before or during entry.)

It leads to both.  If you work for a nuclear power plant for instance, as the population triples, the energy demands triple as well.
Please explain this calculation. Why does a tripling in the population necessarily merit a tripling in energy demanded?

As that happens, the number of people who need to manage the energy supply also needs to triple.
Please explain this calculation. Why does a tripling in the population necessarily merit a tripling in energy supply managed?

This is explained by the fact that the US population is growing, but unemployment is going down.
Substantiate this correlation/claim of causation.

If the US had 1 billion people in it, it's population density would be around 100 people per km2.  To put that into perspective, the population density of the UK is roughly 3x this.  The UK isn't exactly the most crowded place in the world, and America's population density would still be a third of that.
That's not what I meant by crowding. I'm using the term crowding in its economic context, where a surge of of new labor "crowds" and pushes out existing labor.

With the exception of federal employees, how?
Paying or giving "tax breaks" to employers for taking on low-skilled homeless labor as opposed to high-skilled non-homeless labor.

If your middle class or rich, your saving more than 10% probably.
Why do you presume that?

Not necessarily. Where do you account for Utilities? Clothing? Cell phones? Television? Personal computers? Car payments? Public Transportation? What about the cost of living by State?

Nevertheless, I asked this:

Your plan is targeting the poor, who typically have a 10% debt-to-savings ratio. Will you pay for classes that teach them about saving? Furthermore, what the specific effect of a 10% savings rate in your plan?

Whoever had the stock to begin with.  The poor, if they pursue my plan would get enough money from their jobs to buy stock.
And how much of the poor do you expect will purchase stock? I presume you have a general idea since your plan, as far as it pertains to tax revenue, calls for a capital gains tax.

I said $60,000 per year.  Given that they are working 3 months, every homeless liberator gets $15,000 for helping out 100 homeless people.

15000* 5000 (the number of liberators) = 75 million.  For the federal government, this is not expensive; about 25 cents per taxpayer.
That's not the function of a salary, Alec. They do not work on commission. If you agreed to pay them $60,000 per year, that means you pay 75 million for the actual work, and 225 million for nothing during nine months which follow. Second you're assuming that everyone pays taxes. So let's work out the numbers.

There are 328 million people in the U.S.
209 million constitute the adult population.
61% of them are employed which amounts to 127.5 million people.
75% of them pay taxes which amounts to 95.6 million.

We divide your 300,000,000 by 95.6 million, and that's $3.13 per working tax-paying citizen. If you agree to pay them that one time for just 75 million, that would be 78 cents per working tax-paying citizen during a three month period.

My calculation assumes that the homeless person gets hooked up with a job opportunity on the first day, they take their time with the courses, all with the government taking a hands off approach to the person's progress out of poverty except for asking questions if they get stuck on the way, then a homeless liberator helps them out with advice and potentially whatever they need.  It only takes one day to sign up for a course, and then the homeless person does pretty much the rest.
But you haven't liberated them from poverty in a single day. You merely set them up. How can you then project that it would only take 100 days? Is your end game merely the set up?

Sales tax and capitol gains tax.  These taxes are harder to dodge for immigrants and rich people, and given that our population would skyrocket with open borders, we can have less taxes but more government revenue because there would be more salaries paying taxes to the government.
You're assuming an influx of labor supply that would easily be met by a proportional increase in labor demanded. You haven't substantiated this. You're merely assuming it's going to happen.

No because the poor would get better jobs that increase their overall salary.  Some of the money they would spend on better nesseseties, some they would spend on luxuries, some on investments.  These all would get taxed one way or another.  Some they save, but there's more money overall in their checkbooks so they can do more things with it.
So, more money = better habits with saving money?
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@blamonkey
Sure, the EPI data was flawed. I'll buy that. But one of the criticisms of the EPI report is chiefly the point that I am trying to make. When we are concerning ourselves with non-supervisory and production jobs, there is a discrepancy between pay and productivity (1). The BLS data also showed this. Would this affect employment prospects? I would imagine so if the jobs in question are subject to this discrepancy.
Discrepancies are a manifestation of discrepant measures. And these measures can never truly account for all individual behavior.


State-sponsored vocational rehabilitation programs are far from detention centers. I don't know exactly what program you refer to when you describe homeless rehabilitation as such either. But, I think that we can agree that private enterprises would likely never want to create a holistic "homeless rehab" program to get people placed into jobs. The homeless can't pay for it. 

Don't underestimate the detriments of depression or anxiety. They cost employers (2) and are major predictors of gainful employment (3). The cost of depression alone is pegged to be $210 billion dollars per year (8). Employers worry about the cost of accommodating mentally ill people, cohesion with other coworkers, and absenteeism (4). Those with depression are often blamed for being unproductive when compared to their peers, too (4). 

There's also the issue of severity. Homeless people are more likely to be victimized by sexual predators and perpetrators of assault. These traumas tend to worsen mental health issues. A 2015 HUD study concluded that 25% of the homeless population had a severe mental illness using head counts from 2015 (or roughly 140,000 people) (5). Other studies tend to conclude that a higher proportion of the homeless population suffers from extreme mental illness.  My original post also shows that there were other barriers to employment too, such as incarceration and persistent stigma against homeless people. Image is also a problem. If someone showed up to an interview for any position, they would be expected to look somewhat presentable. Without showers or clean clothes, the homeless cannot meet this expectation 100% of the time.
I'm not underestimating the detriments of depression or anxiety. I'm underestimating their visibility. It's easier to hide depression or anxiety than it is to hide schizophrenia. And as long as the disorders don't visibly affect their work, most of those who exhibit the aforementioned disorders can easily pass as functional. I agree with you that there are barriers, but that too is contingent on the type of work. Now I don't imagine that a restaurateur would be too keen on hiring someone who's homeless (the concern being one of health and sanitation,) but would their clothes be a prominent factor if they worked jobs like construction or welding? What about jobs that provide uniforms like parcel services and sanitary clean up?

Your concerns have merit--no doubt. I just don't think that the buck stops with them.

The homeless population is aging and may not be suited to manual labor given the wear-and-tear of age and poverty that make them more prone to on-the-job accidents (6). Strapping young people are more likely to take these jobs and outperform their older counterparts. Plus, the homeless are precluded from the workforce for quite a few reasons that my original post highlighted and that I've already written above. These don't suddenly vanish because manual labor jobs have lower entry-level requirements than other sectors. Also, the homeless aren't competing with no-one. What about undocumented immigrants and penal labor? What about sheltered workshops that are allowed to pay their employees sub-minimum wages (and often no more than a few cents an hour) (7)?
That is an issue of "aging" rather than homelessness. And even with the increased risk of work-accidents, older men in particular still mostly perform manual jobs. That is a risk they consent or dissent in taking. And I do not presume that the homeless bear no competition. But one could argue that the undocumented immigrants as well as penal labor also bear a stigma. As far as sheltered-workshops, my position is this: there's no one forcing anyone to work at these centers. No one is forcing them to agree to these wages. If they take on the job, I presume they are "better off" than having not taken the job. Also context is important. You're conflating "disabilities," with "mental illness." While I would not argue that there some who work these jobs for necessity, some work there because they're more comfortable in that environment. I would also presume that the menial tasks they perform would otherwise be automated in the absence of disabled workers. Furthermore, in my reference, it's delineates a circumstance where there's a "sub-minimum" wage but opportunity for increased compensation based on performance.

Are purely un-subsidized profit-generating institutions going to spend their limited resources rehabilitating the homeless when there are plenty of other highly qualified candidates for jobs? Who will pay for these rehabilitative institutions if they do exist? The homeless? If the private companies are interested in rehabilitating the homeless, they would have already shown this support through their investment. 
If they can hire the homeless at rate which reflects their productivity, then yes. Private companies are stiffed by government from doing this chiefly due to minimum wage laws.

I'll put it this way. I would not have been able to pay for higher education without Voc Rehab. A certain member of my family would have never landed a job without Voc Rehab's support, and he is now in the process of being promoted to a full-time position. Finding jobs in FL with a diagnosis is hard. I'll say that and no more. 
Fair enough.

I don't know what specific laws would prevent companies from starting businesses that served the homeless besides the obvious fact that doing so would be economic suicide. There is no profit in providing services unless they are paid for, and the only way that can happen is through people's hard-earned dollars. I know of few homeless people who would be able to buy their way into these programs and eventually pay for a residence. This is the reason that the public sector is championing the rehabilitation movement, private businesses don't want a part in them, and that's not necessarily bad, but "thems the breaks." 
It's difficult to discuss this unilaterally given that there are a litany of factors--albeit mostly from government intervention--affecting, for example, the cost of living. So then we'd be propelled into the discussing the price of food, rent, transportation, prescriptions, hospital stays and visits, etc. It's simpler to come to a conclusion where private businesses have done nothing, while ignoring the looming apparatus that is government regulation. Now I won't argue that all or even most private business intend to rehabilitate the homeless. Nevertheless, if there's a demographic of capable workers who are being marginalized not only due to stigmas, but an edict that prohibits their legal work, then I argue for removing the prohibition. And this comes as a result of no one having an expense forced on them.

I hope I don't come off as disrespectful.
Not at all.
Athias
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@zedvictor4
Well.

Function dictates ability and therefore levels of achievement.
Function dictates ability; ability dictates levels of achievement. How does function dictate value?

Nonetheless, just answer a question:
Do you think that money is  an integral part of society  or separate from society?
Money is the label or a single form to that which we consider integral. Money itself is not integral.

It's just interesting to see how  other discussions within this thread tend to disregard the human issue and solely focus upon the academic issues of monetarism. National debt and debt in general, seemingly become a mathematical and statistical  exercise rather than a social concern.

I personally cannot see how the perceived problem of debt can be addressed unless one also takes into account, perceptible social inequalities.
What is the human issue? And substantiate its role in perpetuating debt.

Nonetheless, I still hold that the monetary system mirrors human ability and therefore as such, is utilised as a stabilising and controlling mechanism that gives order and stability to society.
I don't argue against this. But what does that have to do with the alleged necessity of debt?

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@Alec
I do have several remarks regarding the fiscal plan presented in the initial post which I believe have yet to be made in this thread.

In order to make sure we are on the same page, I will say what I understood of each spreadsheet before commenting, I won't cover them all, though.

~

  • How 2019 GDP per human is $79K/year.
In this first spreadsheet you are affirming that US GDP per capita in 2019 was $59,000 and could be raised to $79,000 thanks to healthcare bonuses and "low-income" populations "finding better jobs". I speculate the latter implies a shift in the labor-market equilibrium due to the US unemployment falling below its natural rate.

While I have seen many ways to calculate GDP, I must say doing so by adding healthcare bonus to median salary (I believe it is median) is a novelty to me. US GDP per capita in late 2019 was slightly below $58,000, even if you could increase GDP by strictly the same amount you increase income, the idea of a ~20% GDP increase remains preposterous. The principle on which the calculation is based is simply wrong, yet I still think it is worthwhile to point out that while an increase in wages has been observed in recent years in the US, the Covid-19 situation is likely to profoundly alter last years economic trends.  

  • How tax revenue would be raised(2020).
This is the one that motivated me to answer in the first place. I understand that in the upper part you are breaking down your intended US government tax revenue for the year 2020, ultimately presenting a figure of $12.396 trillion. In the middle part you give a figure of the US GDP based on your previous calculation, which amounts to $85.672 trillion. In the bottom part you are breaking down your US government's intended spending as well as providing figures on US consumption and investments (through the use of the US stock market value).

Concerning your intended tax revenue, I will again point out that your figures and the actual ones are in sharp contrast, the US government revenue in 2019 being $3.5 trillion according to the Congressional Budget Office's Summary for Fiscal Year 2019.[1] Regardless of the administrative monstrosity that almost quadrupling a country's tax revenue within a single year represents, there is an argument to be made  and even an entire economic analysis based on the Laffer curve disturbances such a tax policy would entail. The US GDP is also obviously not $85.672 trillion and this figure is the result of the erroneous calculations of the previous spreadsheet, even if it is intended as a forecast. Finally it is being assumed that investing equals domestic public stock and as such the US stock market is being used as a metric. This is in my opinion a dangerous point of reference, not only does investing not mean purchase of stocks, it doesn't even mean purchase of financial assets. Still, let's assume "investing" means here household investment in financial assets: not all financial assets are stocks and even less so publicly traded domestic stocks. The range of investments available to a private investor (even if they are not high net worth individuals) is wide: bonds, structured products, derivatives, private equity, real-estate based products, etc. Another important point is that it is assumed the US stock market will triple because of an increase in corporate profits, the funny thing is that at the time this was written the fundamental analysis books were probably used as door stops by traders.

I won't discuss the assumption of open borders and the figures related to it, even if they were accurate a ~700 million influx would probably yield apocalyptic economic results on the short and mid runs.

  • How tax revenue would be raised (2021-2036).
I do not have much to say about the following spreadsheets in this category that wouldn't have already been covered by the previous paragraph (minimally so I will admit). However I must warn that such fiscal forecasts on an almost twenty years period are not only questionable, they are non exploitable. The author assumes a constant GDP increase that, even if it were true on average, is irrelevant since it is being ignorant of economic cycles and brutal shifts in trends caused by external events. An exemplary case in very recent memory being how Italy had to constantly revise its projected deficit because of the uncertainty regarding its economy and its political engagements relative to the European Union. If even one single year a country experiences recession, the economic repercussions can last for years and the fiscal policy must be rethought, sometimes from the ground-up, if there is a change in power (which most probably happens over a twenty year period for any democracy deserving to be called so). A single economically disappointing year also most probably mean increased borrowing and therefore increased mass of interests, though there is a case to be made in favour of the japonisation of our advanced Western economies.

  • How X can pay the taxes.
  • Spending(2019-2036).
  • Spending graph(X).
I have no remark on these parts, either by fear of redundancy or lack of knowledge and/or interest in the matter.

~
In a second part, I would like to address the general principles of the proposed fiscal plan, since pointing out inaccuracies can only lead one so far.
~

First and foremost: I do not share your view on the necessity of literally erasing the US public debt, even less so within an interval of eight years. I have three reasons for that: the US capacity to handle debt, the current worldwide economic order of things, and the sheer necessity of it.
  • The US capacity to handle debt: I have no doubt that the level of debt (be it that of the US or other countries) is frightening, especially put in perspective with the historical levels. However the US strong economy has up until then made up quite conveniently for the increased repayments, somehow stabilising debt sustainability. No miracle, this is due in recent years to the US economy's good performances in terms of GDP growth, and interests to GDP ratio remains within historical range.[2] This ratio is expected to increase, obviously,  but it is a sign that a brutal 8-year debt erasing plan is not yet within the realm of pragmatical policy-making.
  • The current worldwide economic order of things: It is no news to say that the Great Recession has had an ineffable impact on finance and economics. Among which is the governments' admission of the need for constant massive borrowings. We run on deficits, we have run on deficits for years and all our economies and political decisions are structured around it, central banks have become our wet nurses and monetary policy has shown to be the primary way to deal with economic disturbances. Where is the necessity to decrease deficit when central banks can maintain low interest rates? And where is the possibility to do so when the commercial balance is negative?
  • The sheer necessity of it: As pointed by my previous sentence, Western economies do need deficit, few are those that can enjoy positive commercial balances. In this sense the ways to reduce deficit are all paved with the spikes of social unrest and fierce industrial competitiveness. Obviously we are not trapped, deficit can most definitely be reduced, but Covid-19 has demolished all  hopes of this being a possibility on the short run.
Given this context, I hardly believe sole fiscal policy and especially taxation will be enough to reduce deficit to zero, be it within ten years or a hundred. The logic of what I am going to say may sound questionable, but if it were as easy as further taxing the population, debt problems would have been long gone. A sales tax for example (as you propose it) is a non-discriminatory flat tax, it is not regressive, it does not evolve in proportion of income. This is a clear problem for low-income populations since they are most negatively impacted in reason of the marginal loss of income. And I do not believe this can be resolved by somehow increasing their level of income since this will have repercussions on corporate profitability and inflation (at least it is supposed to).  A sales tax could also reduce compressible consumption which would lower GDP growth further and reduce corporate profits. A tax on "stock revenue" can discourage investing as well and even lead corporations to move financial operations elsewhere (Luxembourg attracting a large number of European investment funds is an example, even though they do have taxation they offer an overall easier framework than other countries). I also dispute the proposal of "opening US borders", especially for logistical reasons, which I believe need not be explained given the figures presented.

~

I laud the work put into expressing this audacious plan but strongly disagree with its assumptions and propositions. I recommend continuing to explore the possibility of increased or reformed taxation while bearing in mind the political and economic structures not only of the US but the world in general.





zedvictor4
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@Athias
Hello.

I think that we have a somewhat circular debate going on here.

I would suggest that answers to all these questions  can be found within previous discourse.
Athias
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@zedvictor4
Hello.

I think that we have a somewhat circular debate going on here.

I would suggest that answers to all these questions  can be found within previous discourse.

You've provided responses; you have not provided explanations. If we've come full circle, that would mean that there are premises that have yet to be substantiated and/or properly connected to your conclusions.

16 days later

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@Athias
Sorry for not responding sooner.  AP STATS got me busy.

If I'm not mistaken, your 2020 budget proposes a nine trillion dollar increase in the Federal Budget, where 43% (5.4 Trillion) will be appropriated to Medicare 4 All. How is that not an increase in spending?
It's more now.  This money is obtained by taxing the population more efficiently.  Abolishing the income ta and replacing it with a sales tax and a capitol gains tax produce way more cash than an income tax because it's harder to dodge a national sales tax than it is to dodge the income tax.

What about the administrative and utilization costs?
They are covered in the government section of this budget.

What if they refuse?
Why would they refuse?  The jobs pay much better salaries and if we ban welfare, people would have to pick their favorite job from the list, which shouldn't be hard since their alternative is a lower paying McDonalds job.

What if they don't have the skills? 
They get the skills.  Training programs are cheaper and easier than college is.

Why does a tripling in the population necessarily merit a tripling in energy demanded?
Because people use electricity at comparable rates.  Triple the population means triple the energy demand, so triple the number of jobs will be avaliable.

Paying or giving "tax breaks" to employers for taking on low-skilled homeless labor as opposed to high-skilled non-homeless labor.
The employer would want to hire both people because it expands their business more if they have the funds for expansion.

Where do you account for Utilities? Clothing? Cell phones? Television? Personal computers? Car payments? Public Transportation? What about the cost of living by State?

All of that is in the other section.

Will you pay for classes that teach them about saving? Furthermore, what the specific effect of a 10% savings rate in your plan?
The business that the poor person selects would because that business would need the labor to expand, so educating the poor on how to get acclimated to the workforce is an investement for the buisiness.

And how much of the poor do you expect will purchase stock? 
I expect them all to once they no longer become poor with their better salaries that they would get by checking out the sheet below (I'm wanting to send this to my representative to see what she thinks, so it's why I condensed everything):


They do not work on commission.
The homeless liberators could work on commission.  Every homeless person they liberate from poverty by showing them how to get out of it by checking out the sheet I made, the liberator can get a reward for it.  I'd say $10 per homeless person.  That means if a liberator shows 10 homeless the sheet per day, then that's their daily salary, and that seems to be a fair day's work for the liberators.

There are 328 million people in the U.S.
209 million constitute the adult population.
61% of them are employed which amounts to 127.5 million people.
75% of them pay taxes which amounts to 95.6 million.
Under my model, anyone who buys anything for any reason would be paying a sales tax on what they buy.

But you haven't liberated them from poverty in a single day. You merely set them up.
Yea, but in time, those homeless people would liberate themselves out of poverty by learning about their job and helping themselves.

You're assuming an influx of labor supply that would easily be met by a proportional increase in labor demanded. 
It would.  Just as the US population goes up, but unemployment doesn't go up with it on a linear level because jobs get created, in addition to being workers, immigrants are also consumers.  When you triple the workforce, you also triple the consumer base, triple the jobs, and tripe the economy.

Alec
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@Hyades
The principle on which the calculation is based is simply wrong, yet I still think it is worthwhile to point out that while an increase in wages has been observed in recent years in the US, the Covid-19 situation is likely to profoundly alter last years economic trends.  
Covid 19 will leave its mark, but in my plan to get us out of debt, I also assumed that the US debt was $27 Trillion (about $2 trillion ahead of what it is now) and I planned my idea off of eliminating that bigger debt, so that ought to even things out.

I will say what I understood of each spreadsheet before commenting, I won't cover them all, though.
K

While I have seen many ways to calculate GDP, I must say doing so by adding healthcare bonus to median salary (I believe it is median) is a novelty to me. 
If we have medicare for all, employers that previously had to pay for healthcare just give it to their employees in cash.  This is what causes the salary increase.

the US government revenue in 2019 being $3.5 trillion according to the Congressional Budget Office's Summary for Fiscal Year 2019.
This was without open borders and a practical ban on immigration.  Open borders would cause our GDP to skyrocket and with that, our tax revenue would also skyrocket.

Another important point is that it is assumed the US stock market will triple because of an increase in corporate profits
It would triple because the corporations have triple the labor with open borders, and triple the customers, triple the GDP.  Open borders are an economic blessing.

a ~700 million influx would probably yield apocalyptic economic results on the short and mid runs.
How so?

The author assumes a constant GDP increase that, even if it were true on average, is irrelevant since it is being ignorant of economic cycles and brutal shifts in trends caused by external events.
I do assume some stuff, but if there is a future recession, the plan gets tweaked as necessary.

A sales tax for example (as you propose it) is a non-discriminatory flat tax
The poor spend more on goods, but the rich spend more on investments, so things even out.  

A tax on "stock revenue" can discourage investing as well and even lead corporations to move financial operations elsewhere (Luxembourg attracting a large number of European investment funds is an example, even though they do have taxation they offer an overall easier framework than other countries)
It's hard to discourage investing.  An income tax discourages income production.  But with investing, since it's easy money, you'll have a pretty hard time discouraging investing.  It's much easier to discourage making large amounts of income; just tax it.  It's why I want to abolish the income tax and replace it with a sales tax and a capitol gains tax.
ResurgetExFavilla
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The USD will likely be the reserve currency of the world for at least some time, so we can just keep printing it for the time being. The Yuan is no alternative, despite the economic rise of China. They can't lift capital controls without haemorrhaging capital.
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@ResurgetExFavilla
If our debt becomes too big, then countries won't trust us with the USD since we would inflate it a lot.  Lets eliminate the debt, since under my tax model, that's plausible.  I had to do some tweaking of it, but it looks alright now.