Themeless Mafia 1 - Day Phase 2

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#61
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@coal
Re: Danielle

We can drop that line of thought for now in light of the new revelations about zaradi; since it means she would have to be bussing her scum buddy early for no reason if she is scum (which is why I am not operating under the assumption she is bussing at this time), and determining the zaradi dynamic is kind of more important.



#62
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@Lunatic
 The only person I can think of who didn't opine after all of this happened is airmax.
Correct.   Though that doesn't do much of anything in terms of his affiliation.  I could prod him to be active by FOSing him like I did yesterday after we're 200 or 300 posts into the DP, but then he's going to respond to that the same way he did yesterday; which doesn't tell me anything new.  It also isn't going to give me anything useful.

Max should opine, though. 
#63
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@Lunatic
determining the zaradi dynamic is kind of more important.


Explain what you mean by this.  

If Ragnar flipped scum I would be VTLing Zaradi for death.  That didn't happen.  Zaradi's actions don't make sense other than what I said, unless you have some alternative theory.  There is an alternative theory, I just don't think it's plausible. 
#64
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@coal
Wrong, because he never hard claimed either.  He neither CC'd Ragnar, nor hard claimed.  What he did was he breadcrumed (at least to me, is how I read it) that he was the other mason, Ragnar being the former --which means he was at once drawing the NK, which means he isn't the other power role.  Unless he knew he wouldn't be night killed; in which case you are probably town.  But I don't think he knew that.  Not based on how he played that yesterday.  I think drawing the NK away from Ragnar was his intention; based on the fact that he believed Ragnar (which would be consistent with the fact that he was not, in any meaningful way, supprotive of Ragnar's lynch beyond just saying that he would only be willing to VTL Ragnar at the end of the DP for results). 
I also was under the impression he was more likely hinting at being mason, I think most of us were; But what I mean by he couldn't have been the other power role, is because the breadcrum post was a little more than a breadcrum when he actually says "Because holy shit I don't think I can say it any different way without hardclaiming".

If their was another power role they didn't see this post. But if he was scum he would have had to have known there was a 2 goon set up to say this safely without being CC'ed. The only way this was an attempt to draw the night kill is if airmax is the power role and wasn't caught up enough to see this and CC
#65
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@coal
Explain what you mean by this.  

If Ragnar flipped scum I would be VTLing Zaradi for death.  That didn't happen.  Zaradi's actions don't make sense other than what I said, unless you have some alternative theory.  There is an alternative theory, I just don't think it's plausible. 

To rehash: Post 632 You probably didn't make much of this at the time, as did most of us because we were already under the assumption that zaradi was probably another power role; specifically mason. But knowing what we know now about Ragnar's flip, this post is a bit more important. As we've established There either 2 goons and the rest vanillas, or theres a goon, roleblocker, and a doc. Zaradi's statement in 632 doesn't make sense if he is a vanilla. That means he is the doc if there is another power role; which he pretty much did claim. And it honestly doesn't make much sense to argue that him him hard claiming means any different without hearing it from the horses mouth himself. We need to know why Zaradi, if indeed the doctor, didn't protect ragnar, and why he wasn't roleblocked when last day phase the only two to even hint they were power roles were him and Ragnar.
#66
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@Lunatic
I also was under the impression he was more likely hinting at being mason, I think most of us were; But what I mean by he couldn't have been the other power role, is because the breadcrum post was a little more than a breadcrum when he actually says "Because holy shit I don't think I can say it any different way without hardclaiming".
All that does is make Zaradi at least as viable a NL target as Ragnar; it doesn't confirm, at all or in any way, who has what role unless both are masons; which we now know was not the case.  

What Zaradi did was negate the effect of Ragnar's claim, which, whatever it was, Zaradi believed.  Objectively I still disagree with what Zaradi did, but my disagreement isn't the issue.  The issue is what TOWN Zaradi thinks versus what SCUM Zaradi thinks.  I just don't see the world where Zaradi does that as scum, knowing Ragnar is going to flip town.  

The rational thing for scum to have done is kill one and roleblock the other.  

Zaradi isn't, and can't be the doc, to the extent we have one, because if he WAS a doc then he would have been Doc'cing ragnar as per his activity yesterday, which means there is a role blocker, which means the role blocker blocked Zaradi, which is why Ragnar is dead.  

That doesn't mean there isn't a doc, though.  There might be, or their might not be; and mafia may or may not have role blocked that person; and even if they did, there's no way to know whether it made a difference because based on what was knowable last DP there were still very good reasons to be lynching Ragnar.  That's what every town should have been doing.

And Zaradi knew, though, that Ragnar was the target and he also knew that drawing the NK meant that Ragnar might be able to post his result, which is obviously proving that he doesn't have a power role because if Zaradi was the doc he never would have made the post you identify above.  He would have just doc'd Ragnar and there would have been no NK, because, again, Zaradi was never on Ragnar's lynch in the first place. 
#67
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All that does is make Zaradi at least as viable a NK target as Ragnar; it doesn't confirm, at all or in any way, who has what role unless both are masons; which we now know was not the case.  
I meant NK not NL.  I need to edit these better... and will try to do so.  I'm just kind of busy today. 
#68
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@coal
Zaradi isn't, and can't be the doc, to the extent we have one, because if he WAS a doc then he would have been Doc'cing ragnar as per his activity yesterday, which means there is a role blocker, which means the role blocker blocked Zaradi, which is why Ragnar is dead.  
You are right about why zaradi can't be the doc. So why then is he still denying that he bread crumbed at all? The fact that he is questioning everyone about where he actually bread claimed seems to indicate he is playing ignorance and more likely to claim vanilla now. If he was roleblocked I am surprised he didn't show any frustration about the night kill not going through. With his play yesterday, it's not like there was any confusion that he was claiming a power role; Natural thought process if you are to buy him as town puts him as doctor.


And Zaradi knew, though, that Ragnar was the target and he also knew that drawing the NK meant that Ragnar might be able to post his result, which is obviously proving that he doesn't have a power role because if Zaradi was the doc he never would have made the post you identify above.  He would have just doc'd Ragnar and there would have been no NK, because, again, Zaradi was never on Ragnar's lynch in the first place. 
If Zaradi was trying to draw the night kill was the drawback to him being forced to hardclaim? Also if he was drawing the nk, this was a horrible anti-town plan. If he was CC'ed by (the only other person it could have been who hasn't read up til now) Airmax, then his attempt to draw out a nk would have hurt town by drawing out the other PR...
#69
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What was the drawback to him being forced to hard claim?*

fixed/
#70
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@Lunatic
If Zaradi was trying to draw the night kill was the drawback to him being forced to hardclaim? Also if he was drawing the nk, this was a horrible anti-town plan. If he was CC'ed by (the only other person it could have been who hasn't read up til now) Airmax, then his attempt to draw out a nk would have hurt town by drawing out the other PR...
This is a hindsight-based question.  Zaradi was never going to hard claim because if he did that would have defeated the whole purpose of what he was trying to achieve in the first place.  
#71
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@coal
This is a hindsight-based question.  Zaradi was never going to hard claim because if he did that would have defeated the whole purpose of what he was trying to achieve in the first place.  

It is a hindsight question: the whole reveal only matters im hindsight because under the circumstances scum didn't have all the pieces of the puzzle together either.
Which brings up another counter point to the theory of zaradi trying to draw the night kill; How would he have expected to fool scum? Scum would have way more insight on this knowing their own roles. If they were both vanillas then they would have already known what he was doing, and if they had a roleblocker and no one else claimed in the day phase than they know he was the doctor. If you think he was drawing then only outcome from this would have been a negative one; outing whoever the real power was.
#72
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@Lunatic
If Zaradi is scum who do you think his partner is?

Behavior-wise I've read everyone townish at this point with the exception of Airmax and Oro, both of whom haven't posted much and whose play style I'm unfamiliar with.

If anything else, I would note that Sui sheeped me yesterday which in itself isn't scummy. However in Live Mafia when he was scum with Magic, I incorrectly tr Magic and he asked me 2x why I tr her, later admitting he would have used my misread on her to get me lynched. He could have been doing that last day phase regarding my initial misread of Ragnar, but who knows. 

I am still thinking coal is VERY likely given the fact that Coal refused to scum read zaradi for his defense of Ragnar the same way he did me. In fact almost all of their interactions seem "weightless" like they are trying to bicker without any consequence. 

To be honest I haven't read 90% of the content in coal's posts. I read him town early and figured it would be best to not get caught in the weeds of what he's saying, though I've paid attention to his reads. We've been on the same page. So far everything I've read that he said, I agree with. That did read a bit unusual at first, however, the fact that he didn't seize upon my behavior from last day phase means he still reads town to me. He could have easily rambled on and on about how scummy it was that I was demanding the other PR out themselves yesterday as you alluded to (I legitimately did not pay attention at all to the potential set up of two goons and only one PR, especially since Zaradi also claimed having a role). However you didn't do it in an opportunistic way when analyzing my behavior, and I just assume as mafia that's what coal would do to get me lynched also - obnoxiously point out how anti-town my behavior was yesterday. Instead I think he believes I never considered the potential of town only having one PR so both of your reactions to me this day phase read townish. I think as scum he would be trying to exploit this mistake of mine because it's low hanging fruit and he would take pleasure in bickering with me. 
#73
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@Danielle
Re: Your read on coal; Interesting. What do you think of his theory of zaradi trying to draw the night kill? Do you not find it as fishy as I do that he seems more interested in making excuses for zaradi's intentions and doesn't genuinely seem to see how any of what zaradi did could have links to him being scum? It doesn't even seem like he is considering it. Even in his big post telling zaradi how frustrated he is with him, he doesn't display even the slightest inkling of doubting zaradi lol. Which to me means he's thought of the implications and that big large post was designed to blow away any potential arguments about zaradi's behavior being scummy before they could arise. I don't like it. 
#74
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@Lunatic
@sui_generis
@oromagi
@airmax1227
@Zaradi
Re: Your read on coal; Interesting. What do you think of his theory of zaradi trying to draw the night kill? 

If Zaradi were a vanilla townie, he would be taking a huge FOS risk by claiming to have a role "to draw the night kill."  In that case there was a good chance town had a second power role besides Ragnar (mason or doctor) and that person would have called out Zaradi's lie. So, the only reason for Zaradi to say what he did would be to draw out the other power role IMO. I don't think he was fake trying to draw the NK so I agree that logic by coal in post #60 is poor, and that's the only post of his I've read in its entirety. 

I just don't see how Zaradi is innocent at this point. If it's true that coal is making excuses for Zaradi,  we'll certainly have to consider that, but I didn't get that vibe from what I skimmed (key word: skimmed). However I noticed that he accepts Zaradi has been role blocked even though Zaradi didn't say that at all. Zaradi's general absence feels noticeably sus as well.

Zaradi, Sui and Max need to post. 

@oromagi - I see that you agree Zaradi claimed something. What do you want to do about it? 




#75
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@oromagi
@oromagi - I see that you agree Zaradi claimed something. What do you want to do about it? 

Ive been waiting for his follow up to that statement too.

#76
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@Danielle
@Lunatic
If you two think I'm wrong about town-reading Zaradi, then explain why because I still cannot see how scum zaradi so blatantly and obviously puts himself in the line of fire to protect a townie who claimed a power role that, if scum, Zaradi would have understood.  It just makes absolutely no sense why scum town read a townie power role the entire game and then put himself on the line to protect a town power role.

If Ragnar flipped scum then we would be lynching Zaradi but I do not see the logic in how scum Zaradi pulls that off.  If scum, Zaradi should have been on Ragnar's lynch and then pulled off it loudly and dramatically after Ragnar's "claim".  
#77
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@coal
If you two think I'm wrong about town-reading Zaradi, then explain why because I still cannot see how scum zaradi so blatantly and obviously puts himself in the line of fire to protect a townie who claimed a power role that, if scum, Zaradi would have understood.  It just makes absolutely no sense why scum town read a townie power role the entire game and then put himself on the line to protect a town power role.

He didn't actually "put himself on the line" though, at least in his mind. Ragnar's statement about the set up was wrong obviously since he over-looked the other set up where his role was possible. All Zaradi did was use that mis-information to create a nice little scape goat for himself to claim a power role. Note he still doesn't want to outright admit the breadclaim though, so he still may end up trying to revert to the "I was trying to bait the night kill" tactic. And again if that's the case, you refer can to me and Danielle's other points about how that is anti-town. 

If Ragnar flipped scum then we would be lynching Zaradi but I do not see the logic in how scum Zaradi pulls that off.  If scum, Zaradi should have been on Ragnar's lynch and then pulled off it loudly and dramatically after Ragnar's "claim".  
He's simultaneously trying to pretend it wasn't that loud and dramatic. He's drew himself a nice little fallback in case the "claiming power role" tactic doesn't work.


You yourself think that he bread-crumbed last day phase so I don't get why your red flags aren't up by his responses to you in 20 and 21 of this phase.
#78
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Guys I work at night. I sleep during the day. The fifteen "Zaradi needs to post" posts are super unnecessary. I'm catching up and processing. 

@danielle: the comment you replied to of mine was a question explicitly tagged/directed at coal, but its interesting you responded to it.
#79
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@Zaradi
I haven't seen 15 "zaradi needs to post" posts. I think you are confusing the DP scum DM's with coal ;-)

jk... Kind of.

I actually do lowkey feel like Coal's response time is a little slower this DP, and kind of find it convenient that you are posting now when he and I are mid-response. I feel like he is trying to get you in quickly to answer these questions because he no longer can lol.
#80
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@Lunatic
What's your read on danielle?
#81
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@Zaradi
What's your read on danielle?
Irrelevant atm. It's contingent upon how you answer some of the questions that have been asked that day phase. I read her as scum initially, but I would have to buy that she is bussing you if that's the case. It's not out of the question, but I don't see it as particularly strategical for scum to do at this juncture. I am willing to be open minded to it though.
#82
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This day phase*
#83
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@Zaradi
Also pertaining to me earlier read; Danielle has since admitted her digging about the power roles last day phase was wrong in that she hadn't read the OP to understand the full implications of her doing so. It doesn't entirely excuse her actions, but I am more inclined to believe someone who admits they made a mistake than I am to believe someone who double's down on the mistake. Which is why I probably mis-took Coal for town dp1. 
#84
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@Zaradi
Out with it; Cat's out of the bag.

We need to know, are you the doctor? If so who did you protect and why? If not what did this post mean?
#85
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@coal
f you two think I'm wrong about town-reading Zaradi, then explain why because I still cannot see how scum zaradi so blatantly and obviously puts himself in the line of fire to protect a townie who claimed a power role that, if scum, Zaradi would have understood. 
This has been explained:

Ragnar claimed to be cop or mason. Either the mafia has a role blocker and knew Ragnar was the cop, or they have two goons and didn't know if Ragnar was claiming to be cop or mason. 

At that point Zaradi claimed to have a role but would not specify which one. If he is town, there was zero incentive to do that, especially if he were the doctor and can't protect himself. He failed at protecting Ragnar and if he were town, it would just make him tonight's NK... so basically you're saying he helped out the town's only other power role which was himself. Fat chance. 

If he is scum, there are 2 incentives to do what he did. Number one it could draw out the second power role to cc him which helps mafia win immensely (we could have easily been in a situation between lynching Zaradi or whoever cc'd having a role). Or number two there was always the chance that there wasn't a second role at all (with Ragnar being the only one) in which case Zaradi thought he'd have a role claim to fall back on. And that's the situation we seem to be in. 

Right now his FOS on me are kinda lolz so I'm pretty convinced he's scum. 
#86
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@coal
As I said above, you were breadcrumbing that you were a Mason, or at least that's what I got from it, but you didn't do that before Ragnar's "claim".
If this is true then why post 545, specifically 
which strongly suggests to me that Zaradi has the role I think he has and Ragnar is fake claiming. I saw this coming from a mile away but didn't want to speak up because of the impact it has on DP2 results

#87
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I should not be here and I won't spoil any information that is useful for everybody in context.

6 people got in the leaderboards for the most active users because of one single game of mafia. It is really that crazy. 
#88
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@Danielle
@Lunatic
'Nilla. The post you quote is me being frustrated at this insistence that I've been softing having a PR by coal,  so that means if I get shot then it would give credence to pressuring coal as he was the only one who seemed to think I was a PR. But apparently that's not entirely true anymore given that you two chucklefucks have apparently bought into it.

The sentence you two are highlighting is me trying to say that coal has been 100% misreading what role my slot has all game long. I questioned him on it multiple times last DP and it was never answered how I was softing. But the insistence continued anyway. So if I'm gonna get handed the perfect hand to try and draw the NK as a vanilla, I might as well go for it.

To be clear: this wasnt what I came into the game trying to do. So I'll give both of you two the same challenge I gave coal: find a post where I'm softing having a PR pre-ragnar softclaim. You won't be able to, because that wasnt my gameplan coming into the game.
#89
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@Zaradi
Do you realize how anti-town that post was though? You playing along with coal's assumption because you thought it was conveniently setting you up to draw the night kill, meant that you would have had to buy that there was indeed a roleblocker (at that time we had no way of knowing Rag was wrong about that). The real doctor or mason or whatever could have outted themselves to CC you. This is the opposite of what you appear to what when you are lecturing coal... It's why I don't think I can buy this... At all..
#90
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This is the opposite of what you appear to want when you are lecturing coal..*

Fixed