Poker Mafia - DP1

Also, the player who has the best hand of all the players who bet receives a kill to be used that night. Using the night kill is mandatory; failure to use the night kill results in immediate modkill

You don't get it. We have no idea what their roles are, they probably get NK for two pair only, for instance and the superpowers for more luck are likely to be defensive in some way (such as appearing innocent on reports vs what miller can do).

He's saying that Mafia can probably get a vig kill from their own role list, which is probably true

 but that doesn't affect the fact that scum has a smaller chance of getting the NK that's up for grabs

That’s completely different than saying they require less luck to get the NK

it does, the hand required to get it is probably easier to achieve (more probable).

It’s very improbable that scum has their own NK. Considering there are 8 players in this game, 

You're saying that the hand to get a vig kill on the mafia's list is probably easier than on our own list. And what you're not saying is that the probability of Mafia getting the NK is more likely than town getting it

Is that a good summary of what you're saying?

It only requires 1 more. At the point where they are hammered, if they are active and if they are getting lynched for the false report or whatever else then they can read a lot into things. For example, Mafia will struggle immensely (or would but you forced me to out this) with the situation and make themselves goddamn obvious by not believing in the cop's guilty from the get-go. They will hesitate to pick a side or contribute at all, simply happy that the cop guilties a miller and if the guilty townie happens to out as not miller they will rub their hands together and leap onto the cop at once. This readiness, combined with me giving precedent for the claim here, lets them then go 'I am popular, you can test me if you want, I just didn't want to waste my luck by claiming popular and getting 0 reads out of that'.

It’s very improbable that scum has their own NK. Considering there are 8 players in this game, a town-visible NK, and a possible vig, having another scum NK could very possibly wipe out 3/8 of the players in one night, and might even put the game into LYLO in DP2.

it does, the hand required to get it is probably easier to achieve (more probable).

I don't think you know what luck/probability in cards is. It's not the same unlikeliness to hit a more probable hand.

You're suggesting that a townie get popular, LIE to town, get caught (and it's possible that they aren't even caught for the lie), then lynch the person that hammers them?

When I made that post, I thought that the roles that each person got in the night were unique (that only one person could be in each role). 

No, I am saying don't waste hitting four of a kind and having the power of surviving a normal lynch amount by claiming that role and getting 0 information from people's reactions to it. The only way to not do that is to fake/lie about what you are and bluff that you actually got less lucky than you did and gauge reactions (including if someone speed-hammers you or not).

We want to lynch, scum are the prey in this setup, town are the predators. This means that the longer it's dragged out, the more that scum can fake. Just because if tracker happens to be on the scum who did the NK, Town has an advantage (or watcher on the victim) doesn't mean much in overall probability of 'dragged out game with more roles used' favouring town. You need to understand that Mafia have their own roles which can completely fuck up what the results even mean for us.