Poker Mafia - DP3

If joker shows up, two aces show up, two jacks show up or whatever, the only thing that is essential is you DO NOT NK the person who has the four of the kind. They can prove the next day what they had matches their power but scum can do this too. The reason you don't NK them, is that they are going to potentially be lynched anyway if the other 3 confirm each other.

The only scenario where Pie is wrong to be NK'd is a scenario where there is a would-be BP with a hand superior to yours and you have NK. In this scenario NK the would-be BP without hesitation and use your power as the algorithm demands unless it's used on the would-be BP then use it on Pie.

Okay so you are probably not hitting your hand in any angle (as your 3 and 9 are probably not hitting a pair) if you happen to hit, you track whoever you want (keep this secret). It is important that you track someone you either suspect or who is being watched, because you want to be seen visiting them by others and this can help you townread the person who 'catches you'.

If you hit the spade-flush, save Croc.

If me, Supadudz and Bearman all three stay as trackers:

I track Bearman, Bearman tracks Croc and Supadudz tracks me. Croc watches himself.

If me and supadudz stay tracker but Bearman becomes watcher,

I track Croc, Supadudz tracks me and Croc still watches himself but Bearman watches Croc.

Croc has to be seen visiting himself to 100% confirm him as town. He is almost definitely town at this point but if he has the hand he claims (which is extreme claim as it's probably the NK hand) he is so easy to confirm as with that hand if he is able to visit himself and also NK he is almost 100% town.

Croc can then confirm that he was visited by someone and that that person is probably town since the visit neither roleblocked him or whatever. The NK from Croc should be on PIe in the scenario that Bearman becomes watcher.

If I become watcher and Bearman + Supa remain trackers, I watch Croc, Croc watches himself, Supa tracks me and Bearman tracks Croc. The reason Bearman tracks Croc is so that even if Croc OR ME dies it doesn't matter there will be a 2-way town confirmation, potentially 3-way.

If Croc becomes BP and fullhouse is achieved, if it's achieved, many roles will become chaotic. If it is a cop-heavy mix by a wild turn and/or river, you follow the algorithm of tracking but apply it to your cop-role. 

If Croc becomes BP via a Jack (I say 'a jack' as replicas are possible but it probably should only be the heart that shows up) then I will have become Cop (or BP depending if a 9 shows). If I am BP on top of him idk what to say, feel free to NK-test me Croc.

YES i GOT It

IF MANY PEOPLE WOULD BECOME BP, I WANT TO BE BP-TESTED by the superior fullhouse (as my fullhouse will be the inferior one probably). I mean in such a chaotic scenario what we want is any cops to follow the tracking algorithm or investigate Pie. Either way works, it literally doesn't matter. NK is used to test the inferior-fullhouse BP by the superior one.

For Croc to become BP, Bearman has to become Cop in all scenarios except if a 10 shows on top of the card. If Croc is BP and BEarman is Cop, bearman doesnt cop Croc actually, that should be obvious, instead I am copped or whatever but this is a very unlikely scenario.

If it's a crazy scenario where bps and cops happen, just know that Supa is meant to track or cop me 100% of the scenarios, the rest should follow. If Supa dies I know I will be held under suspicion, this is something I fully accept and the person who didn't NK Pie will have to explain.

if I am tracker and bearman is watcher, I track bearman who watches croc, this is still fine as supadudz holds me accountable. i know i may have said we both visit croc before, it's irrelevant. this is basically 100% secure assuming maf don't get the same role FOR THE SAME HAND as town does

idk what else to say

Yup as usual I am the NK in every scenario. Textbook scum tactic. But whatever. Town brought themselves in this. A man can only do so much.

That is not a scum tactic, you dont even know what you are saying at this point. In my shoes who would you want NK'd?

Do whatever you want dude.

Okay let's say you are town and that you are NK'd. The next day who is left uninvestigated?

Even if scum can visit people and not roleblock them, there will become very obvious ways to tell unless the same hand strength lets them achieve the capacity to visit in the same nature as town and frankly I'd call that bastard modding and even then it's still fairly winnable. What we need to do is at the very least to enter the next day phase knowing who lied about their hands based on what goes down and if somehow magically you flip town and everyone visited each other as planned, we need to seriously question all the scenarios because if mafia is that capable to replicate town's visits, the only way the host/mod balanced it is by having only 1 mafia left (3 originally) with no conversion available so we're fine anyway, relatively speaking. No matter what there is no scenario here where people don't either confirm each other as town or scumread one another.

Supadudz is capable of getting away with not visiting me and this is one of the security holes in the plan but this is fine as via others confirming each other, he will end up lynched.

If I am scum, there will definitely come a time where I have no recourse or excuses left anyway. This plan can only fail if there both are 2 mafia here AND if they are so capable and lucky that they can mimic visiting without actions happening to the visited or whatever. The reason you need to be NK'd is that out of you and Press you're the only one whose never been cleared in any investigative form and only you two can get away with claiming you were doing nothing tonight in a true sense.

I will even accept your 1 for 1 deal now but then what is the point of supadudz confirming me? I am willing to lynch you if it means that my death at night means anything afterwards. Even worse what if we lynch you and the NK is not on me, in order to frame me? The easiest way this happens is if the scum is bearman and if he NK's supadudz. I am willing to flip around the sequence to suit me being NK'd if you want. The main issue is that Croc is the one guaranteed to be watcher at bare minimum so I revolved the plan around him being both confirmed and confirming me as that is of course convenient for me.

Now that you have revealed cards, you have no reason to stay hostile even if you think I am scum. You should tell us the plans you have in mind.

Bearman and me need to both visit croc who self-watches in an ideal scenario. 

Bearman tracking supadudz who tracks me who tracks croc who then confirms i visited him is also a good idea (and I confirm that croc self-visited). In my eyes the ultimate concept here is that supadudz keeps an eye on me, bearman keeps an eye on either me or supadudz to give validity to both himself as that individual the next day and me and croc have a symbiotic role interaction that confirms each to the other as town.

The issue with bearman tracking supadudz is solely if both bearman and supadudz are scum together. They could falsely confirm one another as town but this is still fine with me as croc's self-watch will help me deny what supadudz may say about who i visited in the night phase.

There’s only one plan in my book. You dying.

What do you have planned then if RM flips town or there turns out to be 4 scum?

My way involves RM dying. If he’s town, then next DP we report any findings. If we don’t find mafia, VTNL again. We keep doing this until it’s 2-1 during which we re-evaluate all of the information me know. The key is randomization. Scum shouldn’t know who’s folding, who’s betting. If two people target the same people then it lends credibility to an extent. Cop investigations are key here. Essentially we do what we did the last two DPs. We can take our time and get investigations in along with tracks and watches in corroborations. Randomness is key. We have to keep scum guessing. In the DP each person should choose one person they will NK if they get it. We proceed from there

Why woukd they do that? Conversion via yakuza aside, if there were four why would they force NL? Why risk completely losing the game if they don't get the NK enough? They only win when all town are eliminated.

If there were 4 scum then Speed wouldn’t have been lynched DP2. Scum would’ve had the 5 votes necessary to vote any townie they wanted to. 

As for the NL DP1, they still would’ve needed 2 townies to vote with them. On top of that they can cheat? That would be heavily balanced in scum favor. As for the Yakuza I’d assume only a straight flush or 5oK could do that. I’d be willing to bet good money that the second kill on NP1 was because of that. Yakuza seems way too OP especially if scum can do it multiple times.

Why wouldn't they hide themselves so we didn't know who the others were?

Why would they? They’d pretty much win if 3 people died in DP1 and NP1 combined. Are 4 scum possible? Sure. Is it likely? I don’t think so.

Its improbable that there are four scum