Arrowverse Mafia - DP1

Author: Speedrace

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#541
Lunatic
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@drafterman
Remember, Lunatic is actually against NLing and would rather the Day Phase time out:https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/4823/post-links/203233
So why the VTNL?
This is inconsistent.
VTL Lunatic

I would rather use the rest of the day phase, but I asked several people's opinion on the subject and it sounds so far like people are leaning towards ending the phase early. That's why I said I am still willing to unvote if people want to keep it going.

You sound surprised that because I am not stamping my foot and whining like a toddler that I didn't get my way, much the same way you have been about not getting your way with the lynch the whole day phase as evidenced with posts like this: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/4823-arrowverse-mafia-dp1?page=14&post_number=328

#542
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@drafterman
Also drafter keep shouting that I am "mis-representing" you or shouting "qoute me" all you want, your actions contradict whatever nonsense you are trying to spill about your intentions. 

Jumping on to the oro wagon shows you wanted anyone lynched so long as a lynched happen.

That little quip about "I guess I'll be back in 2 days" demonstrates you think talking longer is useless. Your own actions show your motivations here, so stop lying about your intentions lol.
#543
SirAnonymous
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To lynch or not to lynch, that is the question. If we lynch, then mafia could shoot the lovers, and DP2 would be MYLO. If we don't lynch, then we have no chance of killing scum this DP, but it wouldn't be MYLO next DP. Either way, scum is in the driver's seat thanks to the lovers. If they want to set us on the course for MYLO, they can do it whatever we do.
#544
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"I was just minding my own business til big bad ol' Lunatic provoked me hurr durr"
#545
MisterChris
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@Lunatic
#546
drafterman
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@MisterChris
What is your response to these:

#547
skittlez09
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Drafterman is my top scum read rn for bandwagoning an trying to rush a lynch 

voting for oro #367, than a few posts later...  #388

leads me to believe he might be scum. not 100 % but its possible. If thats the case im unsure of who their partner is. 

intel an supa i townread an i do believe their lover claim 

intel is pretty lurky, jumped on wagons, an isnt answering questions. but imma assume this to be noobish town than noobish scum 

intel on his own 

but i townread supa an the lover claim so unless supa flips scum i townread intel 

im also gonna lump chris into my town pile

ive seen chris in his games an town chris acts exactly like this by being helpful an contributing 

never seen chris as scum though so who knows 





#548
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@drafterman
I think your response ignore the fundamental problem we are facing: if both Skittlez and the lovers are town, which I think it pretty likely, mislynching would be a big blow to the town. 

Normally mislynches have small ramifications, but this is not a normal situation.  We can't lynch on impulse right now. 
#549
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@drafterman
unless u believe supa an intel are lieing voting for me is anti town 

if u believe the lovers claim voting for me would lead to a MYLO 

u cant have both 
#550
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@MisterChris
@skittlez09
Regardless of how I feel about anyone's individual claims, the sum result is you are essentially saying we can't afford to mislynch today.

That is to say, we are in a MYLO situation.

So you are saying that the design of this game is to put town immediately into a MYLO situation. Town can't ever make a single mistake. And, since this depended on the lovers claiming, then that we were originally in this position unwittingly.

Do you believe that this is a likely scenario?
#551
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@drafterman
No, more like the creator didn't think the lovers would immediately claim because of incompetence. Anyway, if you feel this is unlikely and Supa and Intel are lying, we can always lynch if they miraculously survive the night phase. I genuinely feel that a no lynch is our best option rn. 
#552
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we have to ask ourselves whether or not we are in a position where a single mistake made on the first day of the game is going to decide the rest of the game. I am fairly confident that this is not the case. however it seems like people have taken the partial information we have and concluded that based on that partial information it is too risky to lynch incorrectly.

now maybe you believe we are in fact in a game whose design is such that it is too risky for town to lynch day one because of its design. I think this is a fairly unlikely scenario and if you do then this raises the question of how we resolve the inconsistency between these two conclusions. how can it be too risky for us to lynch based on the partial information we have while at the same time recognizing that it is unlikely that the design of the game is such that it is too risky to lynch on the first day?

and the answer is simple: either the information we have is not correct or there is something about the information we don't yet have that would resolve this inconsistency. but that is ultimately irrelevant so long as we conclude that the game is not designed such that Ms lynching on day one is too risky to allow then it doesn't matter what the information we have tells us. We have to have faith that the game is playable. In that line I suggest we lynch.

Lynching even a miss Lynch doesn't really hurt town in terms of numbers cuz it actually makes it easier to find the remaining scum by increasing the base probability that any given player is scum. Combined with results and analysis you are more likely to find scum when there is more scum to find. The only time it hurts town is when we lose a power roll. This is why lynching the Miller is the ideal lynch. We don't lose a power roll, instead we are losing an anti-town roll. If anything this improves the situation for town.



#553
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Sorry for any typos, that was all speech to text
#554
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@MisterChris
I absolutely don't believe that the balance of this game hinges on whether or not the lovers decided or decided not to claim. And you are not considering the fact that the balance issue might be resolved from information that we haven't yet uncovered rather than immediately concluding that the information we have is wrong. It could be one or the other or a combination of both. But what matters is the ultimate conclusion of whether or not this is a game where it is too risky from the onset to lynch incorrectly.
#555
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The idea that the design of this game is such that town can't afford to make a single mistake starting from the very beginning is prima facie ridiculous.
#556
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Except his reasons for thinking those people were scumming were trash and it would have been preferable to NL in those cases. His poor play is in continuing to push for bad lynches rather than not lynching at all. - Town drafterman, from the office mafia endgame

So if town drafter agrees that no lynching was preferable to bad lynches yet this drafter wants to lynch whoever, on basically whatever justification, am I safe to assume this drafter is not the same affiliation as that drafter? Keep in mind he basically agrees with me earlier that the miller wagon was ridiculous because of how frequently millers are included in the game. He added reasons to lynch skittlez much later but at that point skittlez seemed several peoples ideal mislynch.

Unvote. Vtl drafterman.


#557
Barney
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At this point I am trying to think of this as a second DP1.
#558
SirAnonymous
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@drafterman
Lynching even a miss Lynch doesn't really hurt town in terms of numbers cuz it actually makes it easier to find the remaining scum by increasing the base probability that any given player is scum. Combined with results and analysis you are more likely to find scum when there is more scum to find. The only time it hurts town is when we lose a power roll. This is why lynching the Miller is the ideal lynch. We don't lose a power roll, instead we are losing an anti-town roll. If anything this improves the situation for town.
This is true to a certain extent. It is easier to catch scum with fewer people in the game. It is also true that lynching a miller doesn't substantially hurt town. If skittlez gets lynched, it's probably not a big deal. However, I'm not convinced that those are good reasons to lynch someone I think is town.
#559
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 But that he came out the bad a few minutes after the game started is probably strong evidence he is telling the truth and Lunatic is right that mafia successfully fake claiming Miller is rare.
#560
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@Barney
At this point I am trying to think of this as a second DP1.
What's that supposed to mean?
#561
drafterman
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@SirAnonymous
Then let's lynch someone you think is scum.
#562
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@Lunatic
Except his reasons for thinking those people were scumming were trash and it would have been preferable to NL in those cases. His poor play is in continuing to push for bad lynches rather than not lynching at all. - Town drafterman, from the office mafia endgame

So if town drafter agrees that no lynching was preferable to bad lynches yet this drafter wants to lynch whoever, on basically whatever justification, am I safe to assume this drafter is not the same affiliation as that drafter? Keep in mind he basically agrees with me earlier that the miller wagon was ridiculous because of how frequently millers are included in the game. He added reasons to lynch skittlez much later but at that point skittlez seemed several peoples ideal mislynch.
That's interesting. I've been getting suspicious about drafter ever since he switched his vote to oromagi just minutes after you suggested that oro might be scum only to switch it back when it was obvious that wagon wasn't going anywhere. Drafter seems really desperate for any lynch that isn't himself. It's odd, and it's making me suspicious. I think a mafia drafter would be more careful, though.
#563
SirAnonymous
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@drafterman
You're actually my main suspect right now, but that says more about my lack of scum reads than anything else. As I mentioned above, you seem to be uncharacteristically desperate for a lynch - any lynch. It doesn't match your town meta, at least not that I remember. It also doesn't match your scum meta, which has me puzzled.
#564
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@SirAnonymous
If I'm your scum lead then I'm your scum lead. Why NOT push for my lynch? Though, tbh, if my actions don't match any particular meta that should be a null read but you read how you read I suppose.

But if you're unwilling to lynch your top scum read, how do you suppose the game ends in a success for town?
#565
Lunatic
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@Barney
At this point I am trying to think of this as a second DP1.
Theres was like 12 hours you could have hammered the VTNL. 

I'll see where we are with this after I get back from my home but I'm increasingly becoming okay with a drafter lynch with his behavior.

#566
drafterman
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Yes, I personally would prefer any lynch other than my own over a NL, but I'm not, not have I suggested, that this is a stance anyone else should take.

You should always be pushing for a lynch on a scum read.

#567
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@drafterman
If I'm your scum lead then I'm your scum lead. Why NOT push for my lynch?
I'm a lot less of decisive player than you are. But as you pointed out earlier, time's running out. I only have a slight scum read on you, but that's more than I have on anyone else.
Though, tbh, if my actions don't match any particular meta that should be a null read but you read how you read I suppose.
That depends on how the actions in question differ from your usual meta. In this case, jumping from lynch to lynch like a rubber ball seems suspicious to me.
But if you're unwilling to lynch your top scum read, how do you suppose the game ends in a success for town?
Good point. Well, you've convinced me. VTL drafterman. You're probably town, but there's a higher chance that you're scum than anyone else in my opinion.
#568
SirAnonymous
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**I'm a lot less of a decisive player
Topic's author
#569
Speedrace
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Vote Count

skittlez09 - SupaDudz (1/5)
VTNL - skittlez09, MisterChris, oromagi (3/5)
Lunatic - drafterman (1/5)
drafterman - Lunatic, SirAnonymous (2/5)



#570
MisterChris
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So far my suspicion of Drafter is maintained due to his behavior, and possibly even heightened by Lunatic's posts.  I'm going to stick with no vote for now though and see what how this situation evolves.