United States Senate Mafia DP2

Author: ILikePie5

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I’ll give my full analysis when I’m home in 4hrs

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I thought oromagi’s tunnel by Lunatic was inherently scummy because I never seen Luna complain over that. It is usually drafter and it was not meta at all by Luna to do that. We had little time left and I started to get a gut feeling over Lunatic while I usually do. I felt he was the best option for a lynch. I would’ve unvoted if I had time when he said he could role confirm himself.

I’m at a stop right now for gas so I wrote this
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So right now I’d on Chris. His behavior has been so bad this game that it’s pretty comical. 

Right now I have some suspicion on Oromagi, Speed, Earth. DP started later than I thought it would and I feel like it could be because of his activity, thought that’s all I’m basing and that’s only FoS so he’s my weakest read

Speed has been somewhat laying low but bandwagoned the lynch on Lunatic without justification. I have given my justification in this thread as to why and I even said in DP1 I have an FoS for aggression. Granted I don’t remember much, but still. Speed does this as scum and I have a slight scum read on him

Oromagi is a slight FoS. He seems to be extremely passive with his actions and despite saying I’m the better option, refused to put the vote on me. I’m thinking that he has some OP role? Idk. I don’t think I’ve heard oromagi want to VTNL so early either which draws sus.

Greyparrot is probably town. He’s been un CC’d protective and he stuck to the best possible option to stick with meta. This seems so town

Out of all these options, I’d rather pressure Speed. 

VTL Speed
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I’d be on Chris if he didn’t get town confirmed*
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oromagi
X>lunatic            Cory Booker         1XGLADIATOR
TOWN
speedrace
greyparrot      Susan Collins          PROTECC
chris                                                      PACIFIST
earth
waterphoenix
whiteflame
supadudz        Josh Hawley          DETECTIVE
SCUM


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@oromagi
1x detective
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@Vader
I’d be on Chris if he didn’t get town confirmed*
I would not consider Chris town confirmed.  I think we've confirmed that he can't hammer himself and this corroborates but does not prove his PACIFICST claim.
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X>lunatic            Cory Booker         1XGLADIATOR
TOWN
speedrace
greyparrot      Susan Collins          PROTECC
chris                                                      PACIFIST
earth
waterphoenix
whiteflame
supadudz        Josh Hawley          1XDETECTIVE
SCUM


ILikePie5
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Vote Count:

Speed (1/5) - Supa

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@oromagi
True, but I think it’s more of a town role

oromagi
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Oromagi is a slight FoS. He seems to be extremely passive with his actions and despite saying I’m the better option, refused to put the vote on me.

I’m thinking that he has some OP role? Idk. I don’t think I’ve heard oromagi want to VTNL so early either which draws sus.
Let's note that these two arguments apply contradictory standards.

  • DP1=Oro is sus for voting decisively too early
  • DP2=Oro is sus for not voting decisively early
Supa complains that I "refused to put a vote on" him last night.  Perhaps we can overcome his concerns regarding my passivity.

I like a Supa lynch because

  • last, reluctant vote on lunatic.  I agree with MC's analysis that at least one scum was likely in the four lunatic lynchers. 
    • GP hasn't really claimed any role but we might be able to confirm "PROTECC"
    • MC volunteered an anti-town role early and tested successfully
    • I have one unspoken non-definitive reason to expect that speed is town
  • Sup claims Josh Hawley who was a mostly below the radar as a Senator until  he took a leadership role in the failed fascist coup of Jan 6.  As former friend and Obi-Wan John Danforth now describes Hawley, "the worst mistake I ever made in my life."  After Cruz, the likeliest scum character claim in the Senate.
  • Sup claims DETECTIVE, which on the drafter lists is just ROLE COP.
    • mafiascumwiki advises: "Role Cops are actually a somewhat popular Mafia role, but have also been seen aligned with the Town."
      • Which suggest ROLE COPs are more often scum.
    • At least, the role is not exculpatory
  • Sup's play is more consistent with his scum play generally and with his role as GODFATHER last game
    • Promises inactivity but is more active than most and
    • invests heavily in his own defense
    • Sup tends to emote more as scum, "What a fucking stupid lynch train" etc.
I would like to know Supa's rolecop results but for the time being, Sup is my pick for lynch.

VTL Supadudz

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  • I meant to add that I don't like Supa's "1X" claim. 
    • 1XROLE COP seems underpowered for a role madness game
    • seems to be trying to match lunatic's 1XGLADIATOR but that role would be crazy unbalanced if unlimited
      • I'd more expect and EVEN/ODD kind of dynamic for this game

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Vote Count:

Speed (1/5) - Supa
Supa (1/5) - Oro

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Speed has been somewhat laying low but bandwagoned the lynch on Lunatic without justification. I have given my justification in this thread as to why and I even said in DP1 I have an FoS for aggression. Granted I don’t remember much, but still. Speed does this as scum and I have a slight scum read on him
I'm just busy lol I've been inactive in like the last 4 games

Also I didn't bandwagon I literally started the wagon wdym
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  • I meant to add that I don't like Supa's "1X" claim. 
    • 1XROLE COP seems underpowered for a role madness game
    • seems to be trying to match lunatic's 1XGLADIATOR but that role would be crazy unbalanced if unlimited
      • I'd more expect and EVEN/ODD kind of dynamic for this game
Don't really agree with this

That said, I think he's more likely scum b/c of the fact that role cops are more than often scum

VTL Supa
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Vote Count:

Supa (2/5) - Oro, Speed
Speed (1/5) - Supa


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@oromagi
Oromagi is a slight FoS. He seems to be extremely passive with his actions and despite saying I’m the better option, refused to put the vote on me.

I’m thinking that he has some OP role? Idk. I don’t think I’ve heard oromagi want to VTNL so early either which draws sus.
Let's note that these two arguments apply contradictory standards.

  • DP1=Oro is sus for voting decisively too early
  • DP2=Oro is sus for not voting decisively early
You said you have a scum read on me, but never put a vote and only put votes if you are confident. Why did you not put a vote when the DP started when you were "confident." It's not a contradiction
Supa complains that I "refused to put a vote on" him last night.  Perhaps we can overcome his concerns regarding my passivity.
Refused isn't the right word

I like a Supa lynch because

  • last, reluctant vote on lunatic.  I agree with MC's analysis that at least one scum was likely in the four lunatic lynchers. 
    • GP hasn't really claimed any role but we might be able to confirm "PROTECC"
    • MC volunteered an anti-town role early and tested successfully
    • I have one unspoken non-definitive reason to expect that speed is town
  • Sup claims Josh Hawley who was a mostly below the radar as a Senator until  he took a leadership role in the failed fascist coup of Jan 6.  As former friend and Obi-Wan John Danforth now describes Hawley, "the worst mistake I ever made in my life."  After Cruz, the likeliest scum character claim in the Senate
I think that's a bit bias and even if it so, I highly doubt the theme is THAT simplistic 
  • Sup claims DETECTIVE, which on the drafter lists is just ROLE COP.
    • mafiascumwiki advises: "Role Cops are actually a somewhat popular Mafia role, but have also been seen aligned with the Town."
      • Which suggest ROLE COPs are more often scum.
    • At least, the role is not exculpatory
  • Sup's play is more consistent with his scum play generally and with his role as GODFATHER last game
    • Promises inactivity but is more active than most and
So now it's my fault that I went on a trip? Sorry we were in a NP for when I was touring my university and that I got on my phone to post when I took rest stops driving. That's bad logic and notice how I only brang it up ONCE during the entire DP last time? Invalid argument
    • invests heavily in his own defense
So are you saying I shouldn't defend myself from being lynched?
    • Sup tends to emote more as scum, "What a fucking stupid lynch train" etc.
I emote just as much as town
I would like to know Supa's rolecop results but for the time being, Sup is my pick for lynch.
Will not out any result until said person claims there role. Revealing their role is anti town
VTL Supadudz


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--> @oromagi
You said you have a scum read on me, but never put a vote and only put votes if you are confident. Why did you not put a vote when the DP started when you were "confident." It's not a contradiction
As we can see, most of my sus comes from your role/character claim.  I did not say I was "confident" last night, that is your invention.  My actual words were "would probably agree to vtl supa."

Refused isn't the right word
Your word, not mine:
So are you saying I shouldn't defend myself from being lynched?
No, I'm saying you defend yourself more vigorously.  I suppose you correctly assess that you have less to lose when you are town.

I emote just as much as town
are you admitting you are not town?

Will not out any result until said person claims there role. Revealing their role is anti town
Not if you are getting lynched today.  If you are TOWN, you will want us to have your information whether you survive or not.

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@oromagi
You said you have a scum read on me, but never put a vote and only put votes if you are confident. Why did you not put a vote when the DP started when you were "confident." It's not a contradiction
As we can see, most of my sus comes from your role/character claim.  I did not say I was "confident" last night, that is your invention.  My actual words were "would probably agree to vtl supa."
What do you consider that then?
Refused isn't the right word

Your word, not mine:
Yes, what I meant is that me saying refused wasn't the right word
So are you saying I shouldn't defend myself from being lynched?
No, I'm saying you defend yourself more vigorously.  I suppose you correctly assess that you have less to lose when you are town.
I defend myself vigorously when I know I'm telling the truth and am being lynched

I emote just as much as town
are you admitting you are not town?
I am saying I emote the same as town as I where with scum. What does that have to do with anything? No I am not scum but I'm saying this assumption about my scum play is wrong

Will not out any result until said person claims there role. Revealing their role is anti town
Not if you are getting lynched today.  If you are TOWN, you will want us to have your information whether you survive or not.

I am not going to expose someone's role. Do you really want me to expose said persons information out and about to hurt town more? 
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I have thoughts but I need to share them tomorrow. Going to get vaccinated immediately followed by work until midnight. 


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Approximately 32 hours remaining in the DP
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Sorry for not being active. I have been sick lately.
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I am also getting vax'd today but it involves a couple of hours of driving.
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@Earth
Sorry for not being active. I have been sick lately.
You can make up for it by convincing us you are town.
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Vote Count:

Supa (2/5) - Oro, Speed
Speed (1/5) - Supa

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I've got my misgivings about Supa's claim, but I'd still like to compare it with Speed's. Since the latter has been pretty weakly active and didn't take his opportunity to claim, I'll push him.

VTL Speed
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@whiteflame
I find it extremely ironic how everyone said to pressure Speed and I but are focusing on me for some reason with oromagi leading that charge. Oro is going from passive to now a somewhat aggressive tone? 

I know this may sound like OMGUS but I do think oro is leaning more scum after thinking about. I think he could be Speed's partner depending on what Speed claims



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@Vader

--> @whiteflame
I find it extremely ironic how everyone said to pressure Speed and I but are focusing on me for some reason with oromagi leading that charge. Oro is going from passive to now a somewhat aggressive tone? 

  • that's is not what ironic means
  • I have already explained that I have at least one good, unspoken reason to believe speed is town.  I have zero reasons to believe you are TOWN but also several reason to believe you are scum which I have explained.
    •  I am more suspicious of whiteflame for not pressuring you. 


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Vote Count:

Supa (2/5) - Oro, Speed
Speed (2/5) - Supa, Whiteflame

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@oromagi
1XROLE COP seems underpowered for a role madness game
wait is this a role madness game if so i'm definitely voting supa