Should alleged rape victims be belived?

Author: TheUnderdog

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TheUnderdog
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I support the believe women movement because all genders (men and women) are significantly more likely to be raped than they are to be falsely accused of rape.


But from what we can tell: yes, men are more likely to be raped than be falsely accused of rape.
According to the most reliable data we have, the average adult man in England and Wales aged 16 to 59 has a 0.03 per cent chance of being raped over the course of a year (based on 2016-17 figures).
The best data we have — the number of people prosecuted for making false allegations — suggests that the average adult man in England and Wales has a 0.00021281 per cent chance of being falsely accused of rape in a year. (That’s based on 35 prosecutions for false rape allegations in 2011 compared to 16.5 million men aged 16 to 59 living in England and Wales at the time).
By this measure, a man is 230 times more likely to be raped than to be falsely accused of rape.
And many conservatives don't support believe women out of the fear that some are innocent.  However, most conservatives also support the death penalty even though there is a chance that some convicts are innocent.  I am willing to take a little bit of risk to secure justice.
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I agree to the idea that 'innocent before proven guilty' shouldn't be an absolute. In law it should but not as an absolute trend society applies to anyone accused of rape.

If someone is truly accusing someone of something that serious, we shouldn't stigmatise it because a select few fake it. It's much more important that genuine victims feel easier and more comfortable coming forward than they currently are.

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@TheUnderdog
And many conservatives don't support believe women out of the fear that some are innocent.  However, most conservatives also support the death penalty even though there is a chance that some convicts are innocent.
The difference is, the death penalty is issued after a lengthy trial. Ruining a guy's life through a false accusation? Not so much. No evidence is often ever presented, just someone says it happened.

Now, an apt comparison would be executing someone when the only evidence was someone saying "he killed a guy" which.... nobody supports

Do you support the lives of thousands of guys being permanently ruined because an angry ex spews lies about them?
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@bmdrocks21
Evidence can't be gathered with rape accusations.  DNA expires.  Rape victims have a strong urge to shower after their rape (it's ideal if they didn't have this urge, but they shower after their rape).  You'd have this urge too if a sweaty rapist was on you for a few hours.

Moreover, if males are 230x more likely to get raped than being falsely accused of rape (and for females, this multiplier is even higher), I'd say it's better to jail one innocent person than to let 230 rapists walk free and commit collectively thousands of additional rapes.
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@TheUnderdog
Based on the study, the false reporting rate is at a minimum 1.5% and at maximum 90%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_accusation_of_rape#:~:text=DiCanio%20(1993)%20states%20that%20while,of%202%25%20to%2010%25.

So, for the tens of thousands of guys who get false accusations and are now unemployable and their families disown them, what is your message? Tough luck? Shouldn't have made that crazy, lying woman mad at you?
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@bmdrocks21
Men need women like a fish needs a bicycle.
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Some bicycles are good for fish. Just not as many as I'd like lol
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@bmdrocks21
Based on the study, the false reporting rate is at a minimum 1.5% and at maximum 90%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_accusation_of_rape#:~:text=DiCanio%20(1993)%20states%20that%20while,of%202%25%20to%2010%25.
Wiki's numbers are all over the place, so on this issue, I don't think they are an accurate source since they aren't being consistent with their claim.

So, for the tens of thousands of guys who get false accusations and are now unemployable and their families disown them, what is your message?
I don't think it's tens of thousands of guys every year, but I'd probably the group of falsely accused people them that it's better for them to be in jail (because rapists should get life in jail or a punishment influenced by the victims (death penalty isn't an option)) then for genuine rapists that outnumber them over 230 to one to be running free raping more people, just like it's better to have one innocent person locked up than one guilty murderer roaming free because that murderer could kill way more people than one innocent person being locked up.
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@TheUnderdog
Wiki's numbers are all over the place, so on this issue, I don't think they are an accurate source since they aren't being consistent with their claim.

It is showing that we have no clue how many claims are actually true. So your claim that most are true is absolutely a lie. Most never lead to a conviction because there is not any available evidence. If there is not enough evidence for 90% of cases, then that would mean upwards of 90% are false. You cannot pretend that you know that all cases without enough evidence are all true.

I don't think it's tens of thousands of guys every year, but I'd probably the group of falsely accused people them that it's better for them to be in jail (because rapists should get life in jail or a punishment influenced by the victims (death penalty isn't an option)) then for genuine rapists that outnumber them over 230 to one to be running free raping more people, just like it's better to have one innocent person locked up than one guilty murderer roaming free because that murderer could kill way more people than one innocent person being locked up.

That's a pretty hot take. Pretty much everybody says it is better to let guilty people roam free than to lock up innocent people.

And there are 17k rape arrests per year. Which means that at minimum over 200 false arrests and even more accusations. If the real number is 90%, then that would be 15k per year.

But if you're fine with literally thousands of people having their lives ruined for doing nothing wrong, then you'd best hope you never piss off a girlfriend really badly in the future. I'm not donating spare change while you live on the streets. I might even chuckle
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@TheUnderdog
If we had your way, rape accusations would increase each time someone is offended and you wouldn’t know if they’re telling the truth or just angry. Basing your opinion on current fact ignores the consequences of that opinion in the future.
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Men made the artificial womb, the microwave, and hi-speed streaming video. What do we need women for again?
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@bmdrocks21
If there is not enough evidence for 90% of cases, then that would mean upwards of 90% are false. 
Not necessarily; it just means there is no evidence to confirm if they are true or false.

Pretty much everybody says it is better to let guilty people roam free than to lock up innocent people.
I thought it was the opposite, but I do think it's better to lock up innocent people than to let guilty people roam free.  Locking up 1 innocent person is one innocent person locked up.  Having 1 guilty person roam free leads to more murders.  I'd rather have one innocent person locked up than 10 people murdered from a guilty person allowed to roam.

But if you're fine with literally thousands of people having their lives ruined for doing nothing wrong
I don't think it's thousands, but it's better to have thousands of people with "ruined lives" than tens of thousands of rape victims not getting the justice they deserve because our justice system is too scared to take risks. 

Even though there is a trial, 4% of people convicted of murder are innocent.  Do we get rid of the death penalty on the basis of this, or is a little collateral damage inevitable in justice unfortunately?

 then you'd best hope you never piss off a girlfriend really badly in the future.
Millions of men have girlfriends and they almost never get accused of rape by those girlfriends.  Most men who break up have pissed off their girlfriend.  This doesn't mean that their girlfriend reports them to the police over a false rape incident.

I'm not donating spare change while you live on the streets.
I don't think I'm going to live on the streets.  I'm smart enough.  Most people on DART are smart enough to get jobs in the future.
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@Greyparrot
Are you saying we should repeal the 19th Amendment 😵
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@ILikePie5
False accusation rates would be higher in a society that had believe women as law, but it also would mean more rape victims would get justice since a lot of rape victims are scared of coming out of the closet.  The experiment must be done to see if the pros of more rape victims getting justice outweighs the inevitable false accusations that will come.
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Are you saying we should repeal the 19th Amendment?
Nah, but freedom to associate means you can exclude toxic femininity.
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@TheUnderdog
Not necessarily; it just means there is no evidence to confirm if they are true or false.

You must not have read what I said. Upwards means top estimate, not the real number. If we don't know what the heck happened in 90% of cases, that means that 90% CAN be false, and you don't know better.

Having 1 guilty person roam free leads to more murders.
You're assuming that all murderers would continue to murder if they didn't get locked up? Are we assuming everyone is a serial killer that does so for the fun of it?

Even though there is a trial, 4% of people convicted of murder are innocent.  Do we get rid of the death penalty on the basis of this, or is a little collateral damage inevitable in justice unfortunately?

You need to actually think this through, Alec. If 4% of them are false after a TRIAL, wouldn't that number be much higher if we believed people without ANY evidence being presented?

Millions of men have girlfriends and they almost never get accused of rape by those girlfriends.  Most men who break up have pissed off their girlfriend.  This doesn't mean that their girlfriend reports them to the police over a false rape incident.

They don't all do that. But would a few thousand do that? Absolutely.
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@ILikePie5
Are you saying we should repeal the 19th Amendment 😵

Hello, Based Department?
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Yes, but the court of law should decide that verdict and if the alleged victim is found lying, they deserve time in prison
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Hello, Based Department?

The opinion in question has to actually be based for them to take the call 
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The opinion in question has to actually be based for them to take the call 

They picked right up. Didn't put me on hold or anything
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@TheUnderdog
False accusation rates would be higher in a society that had believe women as law, but it also would mean more rape victims would get justice since a lot of rape victims are scared of coming out of the closet.  The experiment must be done to see if the pros of more rape victims getting justice outweighs the inevitable false accusations that will come.
But that’s just wrong. Why should innocents have to suffer at all. A legal system exists for women, they just let it go. More attention should go to providing women with the resources and courage to report these events if they are real. There should also be a penalty if they falsely accuse individuals.
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@TheUnderdog
Are rape victims alleged or do rape victims allege?

Unless there is a third party witness, one would assume that it is the victim who is making the claim.


Nonetheless, and in all seriousness..... One must accept at face value and adjudicate later.
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@TheUnderdog
Should rape victims be believed?

That depends on whether their claim is convincing, and even then, that does not mean that the truth of the matter has been substantiated. Judging rape incidents is complex because it essentially involves the subjective and private experiences of the parties involved. It involves personal space which is subject to the whims of individuals, and consent which is dominated by individual value. Some lawmakers, with pressure from feminist agendas, have attempted to "objectivize" rape with draconian measures to alter and dictate how two or more parties engage sexual contact--i.e. "Yes means yes" bills. Obviously, this is cognitively dissonant in that it allows the State to elide the very fundamental right it alleges its protecting, and that's bodily autonomy.

Marginalizing minority incidences is no solution either because it's entirely based on an ecological inference fallacy. What does a "0.00021281" percent chance mean to an individual who has been falsely accused of rape? One only needs to be accused once. So what is my solution? Just one pithy statement: be careful with whom you associate. Do your due diligence in vetting those whom you allow to come into close contact with you. Of course, there are going to be situations that can't be helped where one is coerced or under duress.

I do not support the "Believe women" movement, or any movement for that matter, because this is clearly some bat-shit crazy feminist agenda.
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@bmdrocks21
Um... did you just cite a study that was Wikipedia...? Also -actually reading the section is pretty helpful, wouldn't you agree?
"DiCanio (1993) states that while researchers and prosecutors do not agree on the exact percentage of cases in which there was sufficient evidence to conclude that allegations were false, they generally agree on a range of 2% to 10%"
So the alegations of rape are false around 2 - 10 percent of the time.... and you wonder why people find you disingeniousm but despite that - this is from an extremely old source, 1993... like - seriously? This isn't really a good source for 2021 regarding the amont of allegations that are true or false. Ya know.. cause there are more allegations now, 40 years later. 
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@bmdrocks21
"Based on the study, the false reporting rate is at a minimum 1.5% and at maximum 90%"
Like your lying is so blatant that its kinda gross - rapes are reported TRUTHFULLY at between a rate of 90 and 96 percent according to the study that Wikipedia cites. 
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Um... did you just cite a study that was Wikipedia...? 
I'm referring to the sources listed in Wikipedia, not whoever wrote the page.

Also -actually reading the section is pretty helpful, wouldn't you agree?
Cool, and I was referencing the Rumney study that took multiple studies from 1974 to 2005, and the range was, as I stated, 1.5% to 90%. 

and you wonder why people find you disingenious
Allow me to interpret what you pasted for you: rape allegation are agreed to be PROVEN false 2 to 10% of the time. Only ~17% are proven true. So, are you saying that every instance that isn't proven one way or the other are all true? If so, I'd like for you to provide me with a reason to believe that.

 extremely old source, 1993... like - seriously? 
And yet you provided no newer one to debunk what I provided. Curious.

This isn't really a good source for 2021 regarding the amont of allegations that are true or false. Ya know.. cause there are more allegations now, 40 years later. 
It doesn't matter if there is a larger amount of allegations because.... it is a percent. :^)

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@Theweakeredge
Like your lying is so blatant that its kinda gross - rapes are reported TRUTHFULLY at between a rate of 90 and 96 percent according to the study that Wikipedia cites. 

Even if that was true, having 10% (or even 5% to be fair about it) be false is insane when you people think we should socially ostracize anybody who gets accused lmao
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@bmdrocks21
First off - what you've done here is treated every study like it has the exact same validity - and ignored that the "study" that was cited to have a "90%" false allegation rate was 1981, and from less than 20 allegations! What? There are 98,000 cases today annually - I have a problem with you citing "the maximum is 90%" and taking it as anything more than bullshit. Its like saying: I surveyed 100 people about their favorite color in 1995, 85 of them said blue, so, therefore, a maximum of 85% of people's favorite color is blue - that is still extremely disingenuous.

Furthermore, please specifically cite the study which says that "17% of rape allegations are proven true" - because let me tell you something that should be fairly obvious - if something is reported as rape, and that report is found to NOT BE FALSE, then that thing is NECESSARILY TRUE. Again your blatant lying here is gross.
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Which... isn't the case - like - this is me having an extreme problem with how you try to report statistics, as you do in an extremely intellectually dishonest way - not even trying to establish my own claim - just point out how batshit wrong yours is.
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@Theweakeredge
please specifically cite the study which says that "17% of rape allegations are proven true"
"According to victim accounts, 37 percentof the rapes against women that werereported to the police resulted in the rapistbeing criminally prosecuted. Of the prosecuted rapists, 46.2 percent were convictedof a crime,"
So, .462*37%= ~17%

I'll explain it in case you need it. Of all accusations, only 37% have enough evidence to prosecute by a grand jury. Of those 37%, less than half actually lead to convictions (since they have a higher burden of proof than an indictment). So, multiplying the percentages, you find that about 17% of all initial accusations are proven true.

d ignored that the "study" that was cited to have a "90%" false allegation rate was 1981, and from less than 20 allegations! What?
I was simply showing that there are huge variations in estimates, and to say that is it definitely a tiny percentage is silly. I highly doubt it is as high as 90%

if something is reported as rape, and that report is found to NOT BE FALSE, then that thing is NECESSARILY TRUE. Again your blatant lying here is gross.
LMFAO, WHAT? I don't know if this "disingenuous" talk is just purposeful trolling or if you don't understand what you are saying.

You think if something isn't proven to be false then it is automatically true?

I'm 6'5. Prove that I'm not 6'5. Oh, you can't? Guess it must be true. Wow, I sure love being 6'5.

That is absurd. The only way that it could be proven false is that the accused has a concrete alibi, or the accuser wrote it down somewhere/told someone that they lied about it/admitted they lied about it.

If accuser lied and the accused was home alone or with the accuser at the supposed time of the incident and she tells nobody about the lie, guess what? It really can't be proven false many other ways.

If there is no evidence that it was lied about or that it actually happened, it goes in that huge middle area between at the lowest 2% false and 17% true. That means, with me being as generous as possible to your position, 81% of the time, we have no clue whether it is true or not.