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@thett3
Dark Horse race is Washington Senate. I think it’s a Democratic Hold but a very close victory by Patty Murray. Somewhere around 3% would be my guess
2022 midterm predictions
Posts
Total:
126
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@ILikePie5
Dark Horse race is Washington Senate. I think it’s a Democratic Hold but a very close victory by Patty Murray. Somewhere around 3% would be my guess
I think that one is really overhyped tbh, it could be close but I think R’s have a pretty firm ceiling in that state around 46-47% that won’t be enough to win
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@Public-Choice
You are not fooling me with your bullshit propaganda. The poor could not get basic healthcare before it. They still struggle.
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@RationalMadman
Obamacare was actually a pretty reasonable reform to make the American system of employer sponsored private healthcare work a little bit better. The problem is it’s a terrible system. Absolutely nobody designing a society from scratch would do it that way. I’m convinced universal healthcare in the USA would be an unmitigated disaster though so I don’t know what should happen
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@thett3
I think that one is really overhyped tbh, it could be close but I think R’s have a pretty firm ceiling in that state around 46-47% that won’t be enough to win
I agree, it’s very hard. But if the environment is just right, combine that with Smiley being a great candidate and fit for the state and Murray’s association with crime in the state, it’s possible. Like I said, it’s a darkhorse race. If Washington does flip I’d expect NH, GA, NV, and AZ to all flip
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@RationalMadman
You are not fooling me with your bullshit propaganda. The poor could not get basic healthcare before it. They still struggle.
I am fairly certain the Hospital and Pharma lobbies that wrote the legislation do not really care what happens to the poor.
Three polls came out today:
CNN Republicans +4
NPR Republicans +3
Quinnipiac Republicans +4
I’m seeing a trend here. All of these polls overestimated democrats in 2020 but we can’t be 100% sure that will happen again. Quinnipiac in particular changed their methodology and now gets more realistic results
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@thett3
Just in case you forgot since it was 6 years ago. The DNC fully admitted their 2016 primary was rigged causing Debbie Wassermann Schultz to step down.
So much for "protecting democracy"
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@Greyparrot
“For their part, the DNC and Wasserman Schultz have characterized the DNC charter’s promise of ‘impartiality and evenhandedness’ as a mere political promise—political rhetoric that is not enforceable in federal courts.”
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@Greyparrot
I actually more or less did forget about that. I remember that they leaked debate questions to her but not to Sanders. How much this mattered in the end is anyone’s guess but the “establishment” certainly put their thumbs on the scale to defeat Sanders twice. In 2020 in particular I’m convinced a certain person named O made some calls to convince everyone to drop out and endorse Biden
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@thett3
The same man "convinced" Wasserman to resign.
I watched coverage of a recent rally with the man. People came out to protest his support for the Ukraine war and protested the risks of a nuclear war. The man chastised them and told them they were deflecting from the "real issues"
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@Greyparrot
you might find this interesting, which was an in depth and off record conversation he had with reporters during his last days in office that got FOIA’d: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-30/obama-on-trump-1-presidential-term-is-okay-but-8-years-would-be-a-problem-l8t1lk89?sref=KczNubwY
Very interesting stuff. obviously it would never happen but I would love to have a private and honest conversation with someone like Obama. I wonder what he really thinks of Biden’s presidency even if he thinks republicans are worse. I mean I know I am so biased that it’s sometimes hard to tell how accurate I see things is but it seems to me like Biden politicized law enforcement a LOT which was one of Obama’s big worries
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@thett3
Those are some interesting comments. Obama seems forever lost in time in the world he ruled where neocons and neolibs played their traditional predictable roles. I believe he doesn't know what the Republicans stand for anymore and I also believe him when he says he doesn't like what the Democrat party is turning into either.
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@Greyparrot
I think he’s a much more interesting figure than people give him credit for. He was far more concerned about his “legacy” in the popular imagination than someone like Biden is which limited how far he was willing to go—I don’t see Obama doing a vaccine mandate or sending the FBI after parents who protest letting transgender males into bathrooms with their daughters. And he did have an embarrassingly obvious identity crisis that he was working through. But he wasn’t just a pretty face who was a good speaker like a lot of conservatives seem to think
He definitely thinks republicans are worse but I don’t think he would like what the Democratic Party is becoming either. He publicly called out Biden’s open border disaster for example
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@ILikePie5
Which senate seats do y’all have flipping vs staying the same
I don't predict, I just look at the data and presume it is mostly accurate.
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@Double_R
Nate has been wrong multiple times over the last 3 cycles, but okay
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@Double_R
That isn’t data though, it’s a model that includes some data (pretty much polling data and maybe some economic information) but also a whole lot of assumptions on how to interpret that which you may or may not agree with
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@thett3
Predictit markets have been far more accurate than 538. They even got the Biden win right.
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@thett3
Predictit has the Senate at 47-53 at the moment.
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@Greyparrot
That’s what I would expect if it wasn’t for the Georgia runoff law. I just have a hard time seeing Herschel Walker winning an outright majority of the vote. Georgia is one of the few states where the polling is generally pretty good. I am sticking with 52-48 but several races will be on a knifes edge
The worst thing is that the competitive races are all in states who absolutely suck at counting votes. Every other country manages to count almost every vote within hours but in America it’s apparently too much to ask to have the results in hand in less than a week
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@thett3
48-52 is really close to 47-53.
Considering you are not putting your own money on the line like the members on predictit.
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@thett3
You can make 60 cents for every 40 cents you bet right now if you bet on the underdog Warnock.
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@Greyparrot
@ILikePie5
Alright maybe I’m wrong about Walker
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@thett3
The worst thing is that the competitive races are all in states who absolutely suck at counting votes. Every other country manages to count almost every vote within hours but in America it’s apparently too much to ask to have the results in hand in less than a week
Why is that genius? Because some states don’t let mail in votes be counted until after the polls close.
Some countries have a national holiday for Election Day so everyone can’t vote in person.
We allow votes that are mailed and postmarked by Election Day
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@IwantRooseveltagain
Every state should do their elections like Florida. They have a large percentage of the vote that comes in absentee and they still manage to count virtually everything in a few hours. We should expect nothing less of every state
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@thett3
That isn’t data though, it’s a model that includes some data (pretty much polling data and maybe some economic information) but also a whole lot of assumptions on how to interpret that which you may or may not agree with
It’s the result of running simulations based on the data, sure it’s more than just raw data but they go into pretty fine detail to explain how their simulations work.
No one has a crystal ball, this about the best anyone can do when it comes to determining what outcomes are most likely.
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@Double_R
Predictit is actually better.
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@thett3
Yeah the democrats spent tens of millions of dollars supporting “election denier” Republicans in primaries. I don’t want to hear about “threats to democracy” from them ever again
Yeah, the cynicism of modern politics is something truly crazy to behold. For the observant, you're left with the conclusion that either the DNC secretly hates democracy or that they don't believe a word they are saying. Neither option is desirable for anyone with even a modicum of power.
Most people don't know that Dems are funding supposedly dangerous people just to get an easier win. So, they'll just use the money of their oblivious donors to create a boogeyman to point at and scare them for more money.