The oz fedderman race is interesting. It's a literal retard vs a snake oil salesman and the snake oil guy seems like the best choice.
2022 midterm predictions
Posts
Total:
126
-->
@ILikePie5
I think Oz narrowly holds PA for Republicans, I think republicans flop Nevada and I think Masters crawls across the finish line in Arizona. The first and last race will be much closer than they should be due to candidate quality. I think Georgia goes to a runoff that Walker loses and I could be wrong but I don’t think New Hampshire is any closer than five points in the end. 52-48R
-->
@ILikePie5
AZ - Masters (R) vs Kelly (D) —> GOP Pickup*
Um, no
NH - Bolduc (R) vs Hassan (D) —> GOP Pickup
No again
GA - Walker (R) vs Warnock (D) —> GOP Pickup
That would be an embarrassment to the country
-->
@ILikePie5
My guess is at least two out of these three flip R: Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. Pennsylvania might flip D.
-->
@thett3
Oh, I forgot about Georgia's runoff rule. Georgia will probably do a runoff.
-->
@PREZ-HILTON
Yeah Oz is a transparent fraud which is why I thought (although I don’t know if I posted it here) that he was going to lose but after seeing the clips from their debate it’s hard to imagine fetterman winning because he’s actually not well. Republicans tried to imply that Hillary and Biden were on deaths doorstep and they simply weren’t. But Fetterman hasn’t even recovered to the point where he can even process spoken word. He can’t be anything other than a complete rubber stamp vote right now
If the Republicans were running decent, or even mediocre, candidates, I think they would flip 4 or 5 seats. But that would require getting rid of first-past-the-post in primaries, which favors candidates with no broad appeal but a very strong narrow appeal.
-->
@SirAnonymous
If the Republicans were running decent, or even mediocre, candidates, I think they would flip 4 or 5 seats. But that would require getting rid of first-past-the-post in primaries, which favors candidates with no broad appeal but a very strong narrow appeal.
Yeah the quality of their candidates this year is shockingly bad. With 8.5% inflation and a very unpopular president they should be running away with the senate instead of it being close
-->
@thett3
One thing I can say is I live close enough to the area where I get ads for the candidates. I hear like 10 Dr. oZ ads a day and none from fedderman. Same thing with billboards. oZ already has the name recognition as well.
The debate I saw a ton of clips from it and it was very sad. I felt sorry for fedderman and hope if I ever get into politics, the people close to me care more about my health than they do using me to obtain power.
I am not voting, however before I learned anything about this race my gut told me that if I manage to get my ID situation figured out I should vote for whoever Oz is running against, but then I saw who he was running against.
Just so you know, I would vote Kim Jong un over Dr. oZ, but not fedderman.
You are right about Biden perhaps being sharper than his worst critics are saying, but it's no mystery that he isn't in charge of the Whitehouse and that it is run by committee.
I can tell you in my personal life when I started getting managerial roles I started with a collaborative form of leadership. However I noticed it doesn't do anything positive. There would be decisions I opposed but everyone else liked so I went with them, and became the sole source of blame when things go wrong. I also have had a collaborative leadership style and at a certain point treating people's ideals as equal to your own gets all of your subordinates somehow thinking their ideals are superior to your own.
It also comes with the issue that I would look at things from an organizational view and they would look at it from a personal view.
"This takes longer it is stupid"
"It decreases speed by 1 percent and increases quality 10 fold Becky"
" Ugh you suck at managing "
No matter who it is though, we should be electing leaders not committees who accept no accountability for their decisions.
-->
@thett3
Yeah the quality of their candidates this year is shockingly bad. With 8.5% inflation and a very unpopular president they should be running away with the senate instead of it being close
Trump actually did save the party but he is a problem in some scenarios where people just don't want to support the candidate who is openly calling for revolution and spouting conspiracy theories as is the case for many Trump backed candidates who have taken the Republican ticket lead.
-->
@PREZ-HILTON
The debate I saw a ton of clips from it and it was very sad. I felt sorry for fedderman and hope if I ever get into politics, the people close to me care more about my health than they do using me to obtain power. Just so you know, I would vote Kim Jong un over Dr. oZ, but not fedderman
Yes, I felt extremely badly for him too. Even knowing that he’s a soft on crime crypto-communist who would be a rubber stamp for a president I hate I couldn’t help but feel a lot of sympathy for him as a person. But seriously he can’t be a senator. I’m a partisan hack (in my voting not my words) and if the situation were reversed I don’t know if I could pull the lever for him
You are right about Biden perhaps being sharper than his worst critics are saying, but it's no mystery that he isn't in charge of the Whitehouse and that it is run by committee.
oh yeah his administration is run by extremely online millennials and he doesn’t exercise that much authority—see how frequently he says something only for the “administration” (who apparently is whose actually in charge and not the duly elected president) to immediately walk it back. And he probably is starting to go senile or at least lose many IQ points to old age when he didn’t have a whole lot to begin with. But people were acting like he was on deaths doorstep. Both of the last campaigns charlatans on the right hyped the debates up as if the Democratic candidates would perform like Fetterman did and they just didn’t. It was bizarre to see it finally actually happen
-->
@PREZ-HILTON
Trump actually did save the party but he is a problem in some scenarios where people just don't want to support the candidate who is openly calling for revolution and spouting conspiracy theories as is the case for many Trump backed candidates who have taken the Republican ticket lead
He did his job, which was to clear out the Bush, McCain, and Cheney wing of the party. Now his job is to quietly recede into the background except for making endorsements of good (meaning not just people who suck up to him) candidates in the primaries. I was one of his biggest supporters but there are much better options at this point
-->
@thett3
He did his job, which was to clear out the Bush, McCain, and Cheney wing of the party.
And now I have no party. Sigh...
-->
@ILikePie5
Lol I would love to hear your predictions and your reasoning behind them
I'm predicting an apocolyptic outcome where the Republicans win both houses and the country descends into a dystopian future of crazed fanaticism, Autocracy, racism, and violence.
My reasoning is because Donald Trump has dumbed down half the country into morally bankrupt, unitelligent, whack job, conspiracy theorist, zombies.
-->
@Sidewalker
Cheer up. Putin may still decide to start a nuclear war and prevent that outcome.
-->
@IwantRooseveltagain
GA - Walker (R) vs Warnock (D) —> GOP PickupThat would be an embarrassment to the country
If Walker wins I have to leave the state, my wife made me promise.
Last time,I promised my wife, that if Biden, Warnock, and Ossoff didn't win, we'd move.
Looks like next year I'm probably in Denver eating edibles like they are m&ms....and planning the revolution.
-->
@thett3
I think Oz narrowly holds PA for Republicans,
After that atrocious debate performance by Fetterman, I think Oz wins by 3+. Oz also does better in Allegheny and Philly suburbs because he’s positioned himself as a moderate like Toomey.
I think republicans flop Nevada
Nevada is a definite GOP flop. I did a class project on this race and if Hispanics defect by a 5% margin to Laxalt compared to 2020 Trump v Biden, Laxalt eeks it out. Combine that with independent leads for Laxalt, lower African American turnout, and a greater percentage of white turnout, Laxalt wins by 2+.
and I think Masters crawls across the finish line in Arizona.
I agree. I think it’ll be within 1 point, but with the Libertarian now gone, it’s gonna get a lot closer. Kelly is also spending like 7-8 times more than Masters which is usually a warning sign for incumbents. Kelly also is winning by far less in the polls compared to 2020 cycle against Sinema.
The first and last race will be much closer than they should be due to candidate quality. I think Georgia goes to a runoff that Walker loses and I could be wrong
Surprisingly, I think Walker wins without a runoff. There are a couple of reasons. African American turnout has been trending down as a percentage of early vote. Kemp at the top of the ticket will have coattails for Walker. Currently there are a lot of undecideds in the race that will heavily break for Walker given in the national environment.
but I don’t think New Hampshire is any closer than five points in the end. 52-48R
I think it’ll be within 1 point. Hassan is unpopular and Schumer actually spent money here to boost Bolduc in the primaries. Latest poll has Bolduc up by 1 point. Especially with undecideds and Sununu at the top, I think it’ll be a nail biter like 2016.
-->
@SirAnonymous
Cheer up. Putin may still decide to start a nuclear war and prevent that outcome.
Good point, that's something to hope for, thanks.
de Santis will be president
-->
@ILikePie5
I wonder just how much money the Dems secretly funneled to Oz to get him up there. Primaries are so corrupt this year.
-->
@Greyparrot
Power corrupts, doesn't matter how it is labelled.
-->
@Greyparrot
I wonder just how much money the Dems secretly funneled to Oz to get him up there. Primaries are so corrupt this year.
Yeah the democrats spent tens of millions of dollars supporting “election denier” Republicans in primaries. I don’t want to hear about “threats to democracy” from them ever again
Yeah the democrats spent tens of millions of dollars supporting “election denier” Republicans in primaries. I don’t want to hear about “threats to democracy” from them ever again
This type of stuff shows clearly what the actual beliefs of the people running the Democratic Party are. They don’t view “election denying” magatards as a threat and expend serious resources to prop them up
On the other hand, I’m honest about my beliefs. I genuinely do view the hard left—the people who are woke/anti-white, want to make toddlers wear masks, are in favor of releasing thousands of felons from prison and de-facto legalize petty crime like in San Francisco, want to give mentally ill teenagers hormone blockers etc—I think of these people as a serious if not existential threat who have done and will continue to do serious damage in the future. I would absolutely support a generic establishment democrat over a true believer any day of the week. The leaders of the Democratic Party when faced with this choice in reverse chose to prop up true believers from the worst segments of the GOP
Yeah the democrats spent tens of millions of dollars supporting “election denier” Republicans in primaries. I don’t want to hear about “threats to democracy” from them ever again
Why do I really need to worry about one-off Russian interference in elections when the Democrats sabotage primary elections at every opportunity? I'm sure the Republicans do it too, I just have not seen reports of the RNC funding opposition primaries as much.
I'm not sure democracy can survive the kind of election meddling that installs people in opposition primaries based on how much money is spent solely to thwart the choices of the voters. Some serious election finance reform has to happen before everyone sees through the charade the Oligarchs operate under.
-->
@thett3
I would absolutely support a generic establishment democrat over a true believer any day of the week. The leaders of the Democratic Party when faced with this choice in reverse chose to prop up true believers from the worst segments of the GOP
Right...this is the reaction when faced with the Manchins and Sinemas. Double down on divisiveness instead of even entertaining the notion that the overton window desperately needs a course correction. I honestly would vote for a Manchin over an Oz. The Democrats know that too.
-->
@RationalMadman
to be slightly less free in a nation that keeps them protected from the brutality of not being able to have their cancer treated without going bankrupt.
Fun fact, cancer treatments were affordable before the Affordable Care Act and universal healthcare came to America:
The reasons for this are mainly overregulation of the healthcare industry and Big Pharma contributing to keep themselves as the monopoly:
-->
@Public-Choice
Fun fact, the Affordable Care Act was written by pharmaceutical and hospital lobbyists, not legislators.
-->
@ILikePie5
After that atrocious debate performance by Fetterman, I think Oz wins by 3+. Oz also does better in Allegheny and Philly suburbs because he’s positioned himself as a moderate like Toomey
It’s hard to see Fetterman winning after that debate. Normally normies don’t care about debates at that level but it was such an atrocious performance that I know apolitical people have heard about it. It made me feel sad to see. He simply cannot be an effective senator, if the situation were reversed I don’t know if could pull the lever for someone like that despite being a political hack
Nevada is a definite GOP flop. I did a class project on this race and if Hispanics defect by a 5% margin to Laxalt compared to 2020 Trump v Biden, Laxalt eeks it out. Combine that with independent leads for Laxalt, lower African American turnout, and a greater percentage of white turnout, Laxalt wins by 2+.
I meant to say flip lol. Nevada looks solid. It’s been fools gold for the GOP in the past but I think it gets locked down this year
I agree. I think it’ll be within 1 point, but with the Libertarian now gone, it’s gonna get a lot closer. Kelly is also spending like 7-8 times more than Masters which is usually a warning sign for incumbents. Kelly also is winning by far less in the polls compared to 2020 cycle against Sinema.
Kelly is leading by about 2% and the polls were off by about 2% in Arizona in 2020. Obviously we can’t just assume the exact same polling error is going to happen again but I think the environment carries Masters over the line. I have a theory, and we should be able to puzzle out if it’s true soon, that polls are undersampling Republican leaning college educated whites bc progressive educated whites are so enthusiastic about talking about their politics that they swamp that demographic a little bit when pollsters call. If true that will matter a lot in a state like Arizona. same thing with Texas, all the polls are showing Abbott leading but 6-8% but I would genuinely be extremely surprised if he won by less than double digits
Surprisingly, I think Walker wins without a runoff. There are a couple of reasons. African American turnout has been trending down as a percentage of early vote. Kemp at the top of the ticket will have coattails for Walker. Currently there are a lot of undecideds in the race that will heavily break for Walker given in the national environment.
Yeah the black % of the vote drops every day and of course Election Day will be much whiter/conservative/magaish. If Georgia didn’t have their dumb special snowflake runoff thing I would feel better about him but I think a lot of Kemp voters will be willing to hold their nose for him to flip the senate, but if the senate has already been flipped they will probably stay home. But it’s certainly possible he will squeak by with 50.2% or something.
I think it’ll be within 1 point. Hassan is unpopular and Schumer actually spent money here to boost Bolduc in the primaries. Latest poll has Bolduc up by 1 point. Especially with undecideds and Sununu at the top, I think it’ll be a nail biter like 2016.
Maybe. I know he was up in that poll and it was a good poll in 2020. But it’s just hard to see happening. I’ll say this, I think there’s almost no circumstance where this is seat 51 for Republicans, if they win here it’s either #53 or #54
-->
@Greyparrot
I'm not sure democracy can survive the kind of election meddling that installs people in opposition primaries based on how much money is spent solely to thwart the choices of the voters. Some serious election finance reform has to happen before everyone sees through the charade the Oligarchs operate under.
Ultimately the primary voters chose to install those candidates, meddling or no. But it’s still a pretty nasty tactic especially when at the same time you are saying these people who you are helping win are an existential threat
-->
@thett3
This type of stuff shows clearly what the actual beliefs of the people running the Democratic Party are. They don’t view “election denying” magatards as a threat and expend serious resources to prop them up
On the other hand, I’m honest about my beliefs. I genuinely do view the hard left—the people who are woke/anti-white, want to make toddlers wear masks, are in favor of releasing thousands of felons from prison and de-facto legalize petty crime like in San Francisco, want to give mentally ill teenagers hormone blockers etc—I think of these people as a serious if not existential threat who have done and will continue to do serious damage in the future. I would absolutely support a generic establishment democrat over a true believer any day of the week. The leaders of the Democratic Party when faced with this choice in reverse chose to prop up true believers from the worst segments of the GOP
Is this another example of the content you deem superior to the Washington Post? Lol. These are the ramblings of a mental midget.