Gasp Prices and Inflation

Author: Double_R

Posts

Total: 196
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 23,038
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@secularmerlin
You used the word force. That word implies price controls. Or do you have another definition of force? Something along the lines of slavery perhaps?

Forcing the oil companies to drill more at a loss perhaps? Capping oil profits at a time where many companies were in serious debt from when there was a shortage of oil without the proper corresponding price level? That would be an equally fun circus.
secularmerlin
secularmerlin's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 7,093
3
3
3
secularmerlin's avatar
secularmerlin
3
3
3
-->
@Greyparrot
"Use ethical buisness practices only when forced" implies price controls only if you believe that the current price is unethical.

In making this accusation you are coming dangerously close to accusing our corporate overlords of wrongdoing 
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 23,038
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@secularmerlin
corporate overlords of wrongdoing 
The only thing they are doing wrong is trusting government to stay bought.
secularmerlin
secularmerlin's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 7,093
3
3
3
secularmerlin's avatar
secularmerlin
3
3
3
-->
@Greyparrot
Stay bought? Why would they want to buy the government? It isn't because they need the implicit threat of police violence in order to exist and so are willing to pay handsomely for it... is it?

A world with no government whatsoever is an interesting idea. Imagine a world where landlords could not enforce eviction and corperate interests couldn't prevent the hungry and the desperate from feeding themselves. 

No really let's all imagine that for a moment. 
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 23,038
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@secularmerlin
 It isn't because they need the implicit threat of police violence in order to exist and so are willing to pay handsomely for it... is it?
Close, they just need to use government to force competition to be completely unable to drill oil for a profit.
secularmerlin
secularmerlin's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 7,093
3
3
3
secularmerlin's avatar
secularmerlin
3
3
3
-->
@Greyparrot
I'm not sure what the above post means. Would you care to clarify or reword your answer?
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 23,038
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@secularmerlin
Go watch some Milton Friedman videos instead. You can thank me later.
secularmerlin
secularmerlin's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 7,093
3
3
3
secularmerlin's avatar
secularmerlin
3
3
3
-->
@Greyparrot
If you wish to discontinue our dialogue you are welcome to but I'm not going to try to get your point of view from someone other than you. That would be absurd. 
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 23,038
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@secularmerlin
The only thing absurd is your unwillingness to look at my source of thought.
secularmerlin
secularmerlin's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 7,093
3
3
3
secularmerlin's avatar
secularmerlin
3
3
3
-->
@Greyparrot
If you say so. If you become willing to paraphrase let me know otherwise we are likely at the end of this particular interaction. 
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 23,038
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@secularmerlin
Let me know when you are interested in enriching yourself instead of gossiping about people.
secularmerlin
secularmerlin's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 7,093
3
3
3
secularmerlin's avatar
secularmerlin
3
3
3
-->
@Greyparrot
Now. You have nevertheless declined to indulge my curiosity. 
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 23,038
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@secularmerlin
Correct. I would rather talk about ideas. The ones Milton Friedman built his life teaching.
ILikePie5
ILikePie5's avatar
Debates: 2
Posts: 12,747
3
7
10
ILikePie5's avatar
ILikePie5
3
7
10
-->
@secularmerlin
1. Oil companies set oil prices not the president of the United States. To think otherwise is to misunderstand who is actually in charge of this country.
Oil companies set the price using supply and demand, which in its ideal state is in equilibrium. The  President can control supply for futures. Supply which he has clearly decreased and is now begging Iran and Venezuela for oil.

2. Biden made a request for the oil companies not to gouge the American people and the oil companies ignored this polite suggestion. History shows that corporations only adopt ethical buisness practices when they are forced too. Biden would have had to do more than request if he was serious about lowering fuel prices and I would not take you seriously if you suggested that he did not realize this.
Prices are “gouged” because there is not sufficient supply. You saw what COVID did right? That was the effect of a demand shock. Companies were paying people to buy their oil because it was cheaper to do so. Supply and demand in action.

3. Nothing. Trump is if anything an even bigger supporter of big oil. Process under the trump administration would be equally high (you might argue even higher but again the president of the United states does not set gas prices.)
Oil prices would not be high under Trump
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 23,038
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@ILikePie5
Oil prices would not be high under Trump
Trump was a supporter of drilling, and most drilling is actually not done by "big oil." Most oil comes from small private drilling firms collectively working to produce supply.

Refining is another story though.
secularmerlin
secularmerlin's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 7,093
3
3
3
secularmerlin's avatar
secularmerlin
3
3
3
-->
@ILikePie5
Oil companies control supply artificially in much the same way as the diamond industry. 

"Gouged" is presented Biden's word not mine. I am only reporting on the content of his request. I am in favor of comprehensive public transportation in place of personal vehicles to reduce the price the general public pays for fuel. 

Oil prices are not set by the president of the United states.

If we assume that they are set by unfettered supply and demand as you suggest then the prices are exactly where they should be and having a different president would not lead to different fuel pricing. 

If we assume that I am correct and the woul companies artificially control the supply then prices are exactly where the oil companies want them and a different president would not lead to different pricing.

Unless you are arguing that the president can force the oil companies to lower their prices despite the market and/or against their will (in which case Biden was foolish to only suggest) then the prices would not be appreciably different. 

coal
coal's avatar
Debates: 6
Posts: 1,950
3
3
9
coal's avatar
coal
3
3
9
So, no one going to bother to address what I wrote in #21?  Yeah, didn't think so. 
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 23,038
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@coal
I can try to address your points.

It turns out that the buck stops with the guy at the top.  So, the default assumption is that if you're in charge, you're responsible for what happens on your watch.  Your OP contends: (1) there are problems on Biden's watch, yet (2) the burden of proof for causation is somehow on those who claim he is responsible for things that occur on his watch.  Further, you OP inquires what Biden's alternative might have done, implicitly contending (3) these events were inevitable (i.e., not the result of Biden's doing).  
I like this train of thought. If there is nothing Biden's Democrats can do to advance the country in times of crisis, even a self inflicted crisis, then nobody will shed a tear when the Democrats lose power.

Responsibility is not that simple.  In a complex government, economy and public/private interplay, numerous stakeholders bear overlapping levels of responsibility for macro-level outcomes.  Lean into the complexity to understand causation, but realize the buck still stops with the guy in charge.  
Even if, as many people say, most Executive policies today are set by the Chief of Staff, Biden is still ultimately responsible for picking and retaining that cabinet member.

What happened on January 6th was regretful, but it is a far cry from the fiasco as portrayed in the media.  Assigning blame for the fiction created by democrats in the media is beneath futility. 
Many of the problems with our democracy are self-inflicted wounds. It's comically ironic that the highly exclusive commission to investigate the failure of Democracy was comprised solely by a political party with an approval rate in the 30's. (it's much lower than 30 if you include the Congress)


  • Domestic policy.  Biden is singularly responsible for setting the legislative agenda, as the head of his political party (or figurehead, as it may be). 
    • "Green New Deal."  The legislative agenda's top priority is a so called "Green New Deal."  Numerous aspects of the so called "Green New Deal" impact gas prices, directly and indirectly. 
      • Directly, the "Green New Deal" reduces supply.  For example, when Biden delayed decisions on new oil and gas drilling on federal land and other energy-related actions, including indefinitely delaying planned oil and gas lease sales on public lands in a half-dozen states in the West, including Wyoming, Montana and Utah, that clearly signaled to the market that less oil would be domestically produced.  Biden has done the same thing for offshore drilling.  And that is one example of many such actions that have acutely undermined the domestic supply, and anticipated future supply, of petrochemical resources (e.g., Biden's idiocy over Keystone). 
      • Indirectly, the "Green New Deal" signals the end of robust federal support for domestic drilling.  The American oil industry is very heavily subsidized, often to the extent that most investment in expanded drilling capacity amounts to a low or no-risk proposition.  The Green New Deal guts the support the oil industry has received since forever, that it has always relied on.  With these developments, expanded oil production capacity is almost totally off the table.  Even if expansion was possible, capital markets are a disaster right now and no one can get financing. 
        • So, even if a company wanted to bet against political trends and expand, for example, offshore drilling in Alaska, managed somehow (despite the Biden Administration's best efforts) to secure new leases on federal lands and actually managed approval through the process despite the Green New Deal's new regulatory throttling, they still probably couldn't even get funding at rates that are commercially acceptable.
        • You've got to consider this five, ten or twenty years down the road.  There is a concept called "peak oil."  "Peak oil" is when we have produced the most oil we ever will.  After that time, oil production declines as the world transitions to an alternative energy replacement (whatever that might be, remains to be seen).  We probably hit peak oil in 2019, assuming Biden's "green" bullshit isn't reversed by the next administration, because of how prematurely Biden's incompetent advisors moved.  
      • Often, these harms manifest in other bizarre ways.  For example, Biden's Department of the Interior continues to "reform" oil and gas leases throughout the United States, based on its purported commitment to "ensure" that such leases "account for climate impacts."  Basically, interior is trying to strap a present-day excise on drilling rights (i.e., money that has to be paid to pump oil out of the ground, because of the hypothesized "climate impact" of doing so).  This is the stupidest thing any administration has ever done, and even Obama opposed it because he, aside from recognizing its stupidity, realized the harm it would cause as those costs radiated throughout the economy as a whole.  Despite this known risks, the Biden Administration and congressional democrats have pushed through this ridiculous excise policy that is going to artificially increase the cost of oil production.  Wanna guess who will pay for it?  Consumers, of course.  All of this tells speculators that the domestic supply of oil is going to be acutely reduced, yet we have not and will not in any near term move to a world where there's something like any kind of viable alternative.  Demand is going to remain. That just means everything --- and I mean literally, everything --- is going to cost more to produce, because oil prices are at the bottom of all of it. 
    • Economic policy.  Biden is responsible for the country's economic policy.  Period.  There are so many aspects to this I don't have time to list them all in appropriate detail.  But here's something to keep in mind . . . . 
      • Oil is --- or was, before Joe Biden --- bought and sold only in United States Dollars.  The dollar is a commodity-backed fiat currency, more or less.  This means that the United States has a competitive advantage in purchasing oil internationally, to the extent it cannot meet its domestic needs (however close we got under Obama and Trump).  
      • However, that competitive advantage is lost when the dollar's strength relative to other global currencies declines.  As you may be aware, the dollar's purchasing power relative to other currencies --- even to the extent inflated by global COVID idiocy --- has declined acutely.  We are talking like 7% inflation, which is mortifying.  And it's probably worse than that.  So, when oil is bought on international markets, all of that means it costs more American currency than it did before.  That means consumers pay a higher price at the pump.
  • Foreign policy.  Biden is singularly responsible for setting American foreign policy, as the "sole organ" thereof, commander in chief and all that jazz.  Biden's foreign policy has been catastrophic for oil at numerous levels, a handful of which I'll discuss below.
    • Ukraine.  With the possible exception of the OPEC embargo in the 1970s, Ukraine has been the most singularly catastrophic geopolitical development for world energy markets.  The reasons why are obvious.  Russia is one of the world's largest oil exporters, and it exercises control over numerous major stakeholders which themselves have tremendous market influence.  Iran is the figure that you should be thinking about, there.   Together, they can drive the global price of oil to a very considerable extent --- and they have, with incredible force since Biden failed to prevent Putin's invasion of that country.  
      • To be clear, Biden is not the only president who failed to check Russian aggression.  Fault for that predates him by multiple administrations, from Bush, to Obama to Trump, and now Biden.  But Biden made the same mistake as his three recent predecessors, albeit to an even more egregious degree.  When Russia stacked 100k and then nearly 200k troops on Ukraine's border on all sides, the best he could do is send Antony Blinken to threaten economic sanctions.  Mark Milley was too busy being a pathetic gimp.
      • Biden's failure to defend Ukraine militarily was a green light to invasion.  Which is exactly what happened.  That alone would have been sufficient to disrupt global oil supply, and acutely drive up gas prices.  But instead, Biden had the brilliant idea to kick Russia off of SWIFT, and otherwise segregate that country from the world financial system.  Turns out that when you kick one of the world's largest oil producers off the world's banking regime, that disrupts oil markets, resulting in higher prices.  Shocker.
      • But the harm to American gas prices did not end there.  When Biden sanctioned Russia, Russia and other countries started trading in currencies that were NOT THE DOLLAR, which further (and will continue to erode) the United States' advantage in global energy markets overall.  For some reason, Biden's people missed that elephant in the room.
    • Saudi Arabia.  When Obama played economic warfare on Iran, Venezuela and Russia by flooding global markets with American domestically produced crude, at the same time he sweet-talked the Saudis into a race to the bottom.  It was brilliant.  Knee-capped Iran, Venezuela and Russia, all at once.  The Saudis ramped up production, American drillers were fracking like never before and oil flowed from Canada's tar sands like water over Niagara Falls.  Good.  Times.  That destroyed the economies of Iran, Venezuela and Russia, because the per-barrel price bottomed out to such an extent that those countries could not even make a profit pumping it out of the ground.  Biden did basically the opposite.  He passed a so called "Green New Deal," while allowing a war to foment in Iran and managing to piss off the Saudis whose response to Biden's current efforts to increase global supplies amount to no more than "Get fucked."  So we're not getting any help there.

A few rebuttals. You did not address Biden's hardcore stance on unreasonable NEPA permits which stop almost all of new US oil from being produced. You didn't note that gas in Russia is now around 3 US dollars so it's proof Biden is the best thing to happen to Russia ever.

ILikePie5
ILikePie5's avatar
Debates: 2
Posts: 12,747
3
7
10
ILikePie5's avatar
ILikePie5
3
7
10
-->
@secularmerlin
Oil companies control supply artificially in much the same way as the diamond industry. 
They aren’t though. They want to drill and frack, but Biden denied permits. Therefore Biden is decreasing supply, not the companies.

"Gouged" is presented Biden's word not mine. I am only reporting on the content of his request. I am in favor of comprehensive public transportation in place of personal vehicles to reduce the price the general public pays for fuel. 
Public transportation is inconvenient and takes longer, but that’s irrelevant to the OP.

Oil prices are not set by the president of the United states. 
I never said they are. I said the President has tools in his pocket to manipulate the prices through opening or restricting supply of oil.

If we assume that they are set by unfettered supply and demand as you suggest then the prices are exactly where they should be and having a different president would not lead to different fuel pricing. 
This is intentionally misleading. The market corrects after supply or demand shocks. But the supply shock itself was cause by Joe Biden. If Trump was in office, there would be a supply shock, which would result in the market not having to correct to higher prices and gas prices being lower.

If we assume that I am correct and the woul companies artificially control the supply then prices are exactly where the oil companies want them and a different president would not lead to different pricing.
Oil companies have to charge higher prices if there is a lower predicted supply. And the latter part of your statement is clearly false as demonstrated above.

Unless you are arguing that the president can force the oil companies to lower their prices despite the market and/or against their will (in which case Biden was foolish to only suggest) then the prices would not be appreciably different.
I explained why they would be lower under Trump above. Your understanding of economics is telling.
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 23,038
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@ILikePie5
I explained why they would be lower under Trump above. Your understanding of economics is telling.
The guy is a clueless Marxist. To a Marxist, everything grows on trees.
ILikePie5
ILikePie5's avatar
Debates: 2
Posts: 12,747
3
7
10
ILikePie5's avatar
ILikePie5
3
7
10
-->
@Greyparrot
The guy is a clueless Marxist. To a Marxist, everything grows on trees.
Marxism is the antithesis to the fundamentals of economics
secularmerlin
secularmerlin's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 7,093
3
3
3
secularmerlin's avatar
secularmerlin
3
3
3
-->
@ILikePie5
Oil companies control supply artificially in much the same way as the diamond industry. 
They aren’t though. They want to drill and frack, but Biden denied permits. Therefore Biden is decreasing supply, not the companies.
Perhaps... or perhaps there are in excess of 9000 drilling permits already not being used amd the industry is simply always willing to take advantage of any shortage (or supposed shortage) to aquire more permits to hoard against the future.
PREZ-HILTON
PREZ-HILTON's avatar
Debates: 18
Posts: 2,806
3
4
9
PREZ-HILTON's avatar
PREZ-HILTON
3
4
9
-->
@Double_R
What would Trump have done to prevent these should be have won in 2020? (Be specific and explain the actual impact)
H
We do have Oil reserves, Trump would have released them to drop prices push through more off shore drilling. Also coal to oil is an idea that would work with gas prices this high and was successfully tested out as far back as WW2 . This would be a big hit for his base in places like West Virginia.

Trump would have also done stuff like eliminate all taxes on gas as much as humanly possible and he would have intimidated governor's into doing the same. Trump would have taken over a new country in the middle east of he had to, to fix this mess. 

I think you know that Trump is more willing to do things to end this than any establishment Democrats, and this is a disingenuous argument from you. 

I also think that had Trump been in office, Russia knowing this guy was libel to nuke them, wouldn't have invaded Ukraine and would have had to have sanctions on them that are also driving up oil prices for much of the western world. 

If Trump was reelected Gas would still be below $3 a gallon. If he gets elected in 2024, gas prices will drop to $3 a gallon. Everyone knows Biden is not running again, but if him or Kamala Harris win the white house, Gas is going to hit $10 a gallon.

A liberal insider even states it's part of the plan of Washington insiders. He wrote a book called something like "why $20 a gallon is coming, and why that's a good thing".

Granted inflation was coming either way with all the stimulus money, but the gas prices wouldn't have moved that much and a lot of the inflation present is due to the increase in gas prices. 


PREZ-HILTON
PREZ-HILTON's avatar
Debates: 18
Posts: 2,806
3
4
9
PREZ-HILTON's avatar
PREZ-HILTON
3
4
9
-->
@secularmerlin
Perhaps... or perhaps there are in excess of 9000 drilling permits already not being used amd the industry is simply always willing to take advantage of any shortage (or supposed shortage) to aquire more permits to hoard against the future.
Nope, too costly to get permits. They aren't going to act against their own financial interests. 
PREZ-HILTON
PREZ-HILTON's avatar
Debates: 18
Posts: 2,806
3
4
9
PREZ-HILTON's avatar
PREZ-HILTON
3
4
9
-->
@Double_R
Can you provide some actual evidence that any of the things you listed made a noticable difference? Cause it sounds like you are just parroting talking points you heard on Fox news with no idea what you're talking about.
Why are you asking grey parrot to make an argument for why having less supply of oil would cause prices in oil to rise? Have you seriously never heard of supply and demand?
secularmerlin
secularmerlin's avatar
Debates: 0
Posts: 7,093
3
3
3
secularmerlin's avatar
secularmerlin
3
3
3
-->
@PREZ-HILTON
Perhaps... or perhaps there are in excess of 9000 drilling permits already not being used amd the industry is simply always willing to take advantage of any shortage (or supposed shortage) to aquire more permits to hoard against the future.
Nope, too costly to get permits. They aren't going to act against their own financial interests. 
What I'm saying is that they already have permits which they are not using for one reason or another. 
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 23,038
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@PREZ-HILTON
Why are you asking grey parrot to make an argument for why having less supply of oil would cause prices in oil to rise? Have you seriously never heard of supply and demand?
I replied with a wiki page on supply and demand. It's astounding the level of economic ignorance in this thread.
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 23,038
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@secularmerlin
What I'm saying is that they already have permits which they are not using for one reason or another. 
Economic neophytes don't equate high prices with high production, labor, and transport costs which also translates to a lack of investor funding.
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 23,038
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@ILikePie5
When asked why they aren’t raising production more, 59% of respondents said it was because investors are pressuring them to maintain capital discipline. Another 11% said it was because of the environmental social and governance movement, 8% said it was because of trouble accessing financing and 6% said it was because of government regulations. Another 15% marked “other,” which included things like “personnel shortages, limited availability of equipment, and supply-chain issues.”

“The industry is facing serious supply issues for the materials needed to grow production,” wrote one production executive.

“In the first quarter of 2021, I divested all properties in the state of Colorado due to the unbelievably hostile and increasingly aggressive regulatory environment driven by anti-fossil-fuel ideology,” said one oil producer. “The administration has no clue about the oil-and-gas industry,” an oil services executive said.
Double_R
Double_R's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,278
3
2
5
Double_R's avatar
Double_R
3
2
5
-->
@coal
The green new deal? It isn't law, it doesn't even give specifics. It's a vague outline on how the US should approach green energy and inequality. How is this relevant?

You talk about inflation and how it impacts the US dollar but fail to mention that inflation is also a global issue and the US isn't experiencing inflation any higher than the rest of the world

You talk about land leases but this is also hardly relavant - companies have to lease the land,  put their investments into it and start production. This takes years, probably a half decade before any of it hits the market. Maybe in 2025 you can blame this for high gas prices, it hardly has anything to do with today

The US's decision to not import Russian oil is relavant and significant, but that's a fast now nuanced argument. If your position is that we should continue to fund the Ukrainian genocide in favor of paying a dollar or so less at the pump then that's fine, own it. Don't just oriented this is sheer incompetence.

I know you gave more then just that, bit you failed to give the main thing I asked for... The impact. You and others claim these high gas prices is because of Biden. Not because of inflation (a global issue), not because of the supply chain and COVID's complete disruption to it (also a global issue) and you do this whole ignoring that the entire world is dealing with had prices just as high as us.

So support your claims; quantify the impact Biden has had and compare it to whatever you think Trump would have done.