The black vote for Republicans increased by 0.8. Take that Brandon!
Midterm Thread
Posts
Total:
210
de Santis DESTROYES
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@bmdrocks21
By being splitting with the unpopular policies that led to McCain and Romney getting annihilated
Gee, that’s such a precise answer
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@IwantRooseveltagain
Gee, that’s such a precise answer
On this site, I reciprocate effort in my posts based on the effort given to me
Not pro-war, fight China over job loss, securing border.
Popular stuff
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@bmdrocks21
Somehow, everyone realizing and rightfully blaming Trump will lead to his ardent followers to supporting him more. It’s like the mere criticism of him is his appeal, like it makes him more of an “outsider” to these people.
It’s hard to tell really. He definitely has a lot of ardent supporters but his standing has diminished a ton in the past two years and we’ve got another two years to go. Supposedly he wants to declare that he’s running for President next and I have no clue how that’s going to play out. It could give him a year to campaign uninterrupted and seal the deal or it could just come off as pathetic. One thing I’ve learned is I’m not super good at modeling the mindset of the average voter so idk what wll happen
Another thing this election proved is that voters are done with the Trumpy shit. I think the refusal to accept losing the election actually did hurt him and the candidates who went along with him quite a bit. Even pretty dire economic circumstances and a very unpopular sitting President weren’t enough to make people go for the Trumpy candidates (when again normal candidates, even quite conservative ones, won almost everywhere they survived primaries.) 2024 with him at the top of the ticket would be a disaster. As an example I don’t think I would be able to vote for him again. And if you’ve lost me…
I think up until about 2 years ago, Trump had a fantastic impact on the party. The policies he supported gave hope to the party. But lately, he has been throwing his positive legacy away and doing far more harm to the direction he pushed things in than good.
His policies were good which is why I supported him pretty much from day one in 2015 but the man himself was always a risky bet and his loss to Biden + continuing to age seems to have permanently broken him. Ever since he lost he has done enormous damage including losing the senate twice. And if the January 6th thing had gone just a little more wrong than it did it could’ve been an extremely historic day for a very sad reason. Mob mentality is no joke and if that mob had run into a few unpopular politicians like they came within seconds of doing they might have killed them. Not everyone is as cynical as me who couldn’t take it seriously and that’s probably for the best. They’re right to reject everything about that and the candidates who were too afraid of Trump to disavow it. And yes the media etc does help the left sweep their problems, like the riot filled summer of rage that preceded all this, under the rug but that’s no excuse for us not being better.
His “style” is completely toxic at this point and even before that politicians couldn’t really replicate it well. Anyone who refuses to move on from that will face a severe electoral penalty. Look at Lauren Bobert lol. She almost lost her Trump +8 seat in a year where the country shifted 6ish points right from 2020. Now THATS a pathetic performance
Trump becoming president again would be very funny but
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@TWS1405
I want you to get your pompoms on and chant with me
What do I say as a chore?
Sophomoric banal whore
What do I say when I'm sore?
Sophomoric banal whore
What's the villain in my lore?
Sophomoric banal whore
White America forevermore!
RM,
Juvenile. So juvenile.
What are you, six years old or something!
Grow up!!
Incel Manchild!
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@TWS1405
Incel or whore, which one is every member here? Let's play a game :D
Only you (RM) and IWantRooseveltAgain. Just you two peas of the same pod.
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@TWS1405
Nah, I take it back. Your mamma must be hugely disappointed in you. Name calling little childish whore that you are.
Awww man, I really wanted the racist white supremacist to like me, nuts.
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@Sidewalker
No such thing as a white supremacist, but there sure as 💩 are black supremacists!!!!
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@TWS1405
No such thing as a white supremacist,
They teach you to say that at the Klan meetings?
but there sure as 💩 are black supremacists!!!!
Yep, the source of your racism is penis envy.
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@Sidewalker
Typical ignorant childish retort. Denialist. Dunning Kruger effect poster child. You’re the racist, child.
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@TWS1405
Typical ignorant childish retort. Denialist. Dunning Kruger effect poster child. You’re the racist, child.
That's three childs, and one "I'm rubber and you're glue".
That's pretty advanced for an LD white supremacist.
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@Sidewalker
You know, TWS was enlisted in the army. He made it all the way to E3. Then I believe he was discharged for mental issues.
Fortunately he is impotent so he hasn’t had any children
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@thett3
Interestingly the GOP is leading the popular vote right now by 6 points. When all the votes are counted it should end up around 3-4%, which would be a 6-7% shift right from 2020, when the GOP came only 5 seats short of a house majority. On paper that should’ve been enough to easily sweep the house but it’s turning into a nailbiter because this time around it’s GOP votes that aren’t distributed efficiently and not Dem votes like in 2016 and 2020. Things can change fast!
You’re dreaming. There are millions of democratic votes left to count in California
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@thett3
The senate is more than enough proof of that. I’ve seen a lot of rage directed towards Trump so hopefully his spell is finally breaking. It’s time to move on from him!
Even though you consider Trump a better than Bush or Paul Ryan?
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@Sidewalker
Onky “I know you are, but what am I” ignoramus here is your. You keep solidifying your name next to the meaning of the Dunning Kruger effect with each retort.
As for the other dip 💩, I was honorably discharged as an E4. Former drug suppress investigator with CiD. One of very few elite MPs who get that honor.
iWRA is the exact type of low life soldier I busted on a daily abuses for drug possession and/or use.
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@IwantRooseveltagain
You’re dreaming. There are millions of democratic votes left to count in California
Actually, he's right on target. Republicans are currently up 5 million in the national popular vote.
7.3 million ballots in California have been counted, which is an estimated 63% of the total.
That leaves about 3.5 million left in California. Even if every single one of those is Democratic, the national vote will still be Republican. However, they won't all be Democratic. Based on the current results of the CA gubernatorial race, about 60% of the remaining ballots will be Democratic. Thus, once the remaining ballots in California are counted, there will be about 2.1 million Democratic ballots and 1.4 million Republican ballots. That will only cut the Republican lead to 4.3 million. Democrats would have a national total of 49.35 million, and Republicans would have 53.67 million. That is a 4.2% lead for Republicans. Thett3 estimated that Republicans would end with a 3-4% advantage. He is still correct when California is taken into account.
Note: I am ignoring independents for simplicities' sake, so these numbers are not exact.
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@SirAnonymous
Actually, he's right on target. Republicans are currently up 5 million in the national popular vote.
Are we talking about democrats who voted or voters who voted for democrats? Because 105 million is not how many ballots were cast in 2022. It’s more like 150 million.
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@IwantRooseveltagain
Are we talking about democrats who voted or voters who voted for democrats?
Voters who voted for Democrats.
Because 105 million is not how many ballots were cast in 2022. It’s more like 150 million.
Quite possible. The 105 million are just the ones that have been counted so far. However, that has nothing to do with my point, which was that the millions of votes left to count in California are not enough to prevent Republicans from winning the national popular vote by 3-4%.
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@SirAnonymous
There’s always a catch when conservatives try to tell a storyline.
The reason Republicans might win the popular vote in the House is this:
All districts don’t feature two major-party candidates, and as a result, those races skew the overall numbers. That’s because having no major-party opponent generally means candidates run up a much bigger margin than they otherwise would.
In the 2022 election, there were many more uncontested House districts held by Republicans (14) than by Democrats (3). And there were another 10 districts in which the GOP had no major-party opponents, compared with just three for Democrats.
As usual, anything you get from a Republican has to be researched before you can truly know what’s going on. They simply can’t win on the facts. They must distort the facts and use half truths to make their case.
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@IwantRooseveltagain
There’s always a catch when conservatives try to tell a storyline.
And the catch you mention may be true. That still has nothing to do with my point. The only point I was making was that uncounted votes in California are not going to flip the popular votes to Democrats. I offered no explanation for why the popular vote was the way it was, and I did not tell any storyline.
They simply can’t win on the facts. They must distort the facts and use half truths to make their case.
Is that why you abandoned your claims about California and pivoted to a completely different argument when your first argument was challenged with a bit of math?
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@SirAnonymous
Always a trace of truth. Oh we said something that is kind of true, now it’s your job to figure out what we are hiding.
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@IwantRooseveltagain
The reason Republicans might win the popular vote in the House is this:All districts don’t feature two major-party candidates, and as a result, those races skew the overall numbers. That’s because having no major-party opponent generally means candidates run up a much bigger margin than they otherwise would.In the 2022 election, there were many more uncontested House districts held by Republicans (14) than by Democrats (3). And there were another 10 districts in which the GOP had no major-party opponents, compared with just three for Democrats.
There were more uncontested R than D seats this cycle but this was probably more or less cancelled out by the 6 races in California where R’s didn’t make the runoff so only D’s can get votes. Sean Trende (an elections expert) thinks it’s more or less a wash and the national popular vote is representative, or at most knocks ~1% off the margin. This type of thing happens literally every cycle so it’s hardly new
Laxalt lost the Senate race I thought he would win. Oh well. A split house would've been Democrat control by tirebreaker anyway.
Meanwhile, on the House side of things: Republicans need one more to gain the House. I think they'll do it.
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@IwantRooseveltagain
You’re dreaming. There are millions of democratic votes left to count in California
Now that California is 95% in, the GOP lead in the popular vote stands at 3.3%
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@thett3
Guess the California Democrats moved to Arizona?
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@Greyparrot
Almost every county in California, New York, and Florida shifted 10+ points to the right compared to 2020. Those are massive states that have a huge impact on the popular vote but it doesn’t translate to that many seats. The rest of the country saw much more modest swings and a few states (PA, Michigan) swung to the left because the GOP candidates at the top of the ticket were just that bad. The GOP messed this one up very badly
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@thett3
Only in DC can McConnel mess up that bad and keep his job.