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@drafterman
I'm waffling on Vaarka. On the one hand I see his actions as legitimate scum hunting, on the other I see it as casting a bunch of FOS to see what sticks and can whip up a wagon on.
This is a good point. Did you see any town reads that i missed? Can't recall if he has TR'd anyone tbh
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^^lol no clue why I @'d Vaarka instead of Danielle with that
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@Vaarka
But the reasoning for you and drafter fmpov totally fits.
Should I say it fits with the unelaborated on previous team prediction of Supa and I.
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@Danielle
Oh wait I remember now, you were townreading drafterman. I found him to be null at best, and I don't really recall you giving much reason for what seems to be a strong town read. I thought "wtf why" and then wondered "is she trying to subtly push a scummate into the town sphere so others town read him too" and just kinda said "haha I bet they're both scum
This is consistent with his earlier post that predicts me and Supa. I'm tr'ing Supa, and because of that am defending him also,. Ergo that in essence looks like scum working together. He didn't outright outline it at the time.
But the reasoning for you and drafter fmpov totally fits. I personally am leaning town on Vaarka after this post.
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@drafterman
It just means he can't @ you or message you. I have him blocked and can (unfortunately) read his posts just fine.
Ok, I wasn't sure how blocking worked and was concerned about potentially not being able to see posts. If he wants to get his panties in a twist about me @ing him in posts that are direct replies to what he said, about in game matters, he's more than allowed to twist them as tight as he wants 😂
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Ok, well, if rational has blocked me does that mean I won't be able to see his posts? If so, lol well that just kinda screws up the game. Will he even see mine? If no, how tf does he plan on accurately scumhunting?
This is new territory, cause blocking has never been available before, but should that even necessarily be allowed if the either or both of the above two are the case?
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@Danielle
Nope GreyParrot mentioned him as well (I believe) and Vaarka said he thinks drafterman and I are scum
Oh shit, true, I was jooking at just the votes. FoS's didn't occur to me, my b
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@Danielle
I have drafterman as my most solid town read which is amusing given all the suspicion on him. Change my mind.
Considering the suspicion of him is from Supa and Rational and they're both omgus votes... not all that much suspicion
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@RationalMadman
Danielle outed an interpretation that town would never reach reading what you and I said.
And by what basis other than your own interpretation of the show are you holding that assumption to be true? Let me guess, "I'm town therefore anyone who disagrees with me must be scum"?
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@RationalMadman
You can take your analysis of me and give it to someone who cares. I am 20,000x the player you'll ever be.
Oh my lord 😂. Sure thing oh venerable baron of the self-absorbed omgus.
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@RationalMadman
Correction, *do you really expect someone else to claim at two votes when you absolutely refused to claim until L-1*
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@RationalMadman
Will not unvote until he outs.
Do you really expect someone to claim from just one vote when you refused to claim until L-1? Ur gonna need to not be so self-centered in your analysis and not be going after people primarily just because they voted you and/or find you to be acting scummy. Thats not going to convince anyone. Nobody owes you their vote, you aren't entitled to anyone agreeing with you. You have to convince people. If you are unable to, that's a reflection on your own inability to persuade, not others.
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@Vaarka
I'm down for his lynch, while my prediction is more hunch based b/c both drafter and danielle are fairly inactive
Then you should also be finding Hammer and Earth sus as their activity is near equal to or less than the activity of Drafter/Danielle. In the case of Earth, far less than the activity of the latter pair.
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@RationalMadman
Rob is the undeniable GF not John.
And yet it was denied. That's the thing about interpretations. They're subjective and deniable..whether or not you agree with another players themativ interpretation isn't indicative of them being scum. Imagine that.
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@Danielle
**Unofficial Vote Count**
Drafterman (1/5) - Supadudz
TheHammer (2/5) - Buddamoose, Drafterman
Supadudz (1/5) - TheHammer
Danielle (1/5) - Rational
_____________________
If I missed anything, sorry ahead of time
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@Danielle
You could also alternatively just manually input the username in the "receivers" field. Use commas to separate posts that you want to have multiple recipients.
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@Danielle
I don't know how to reply to people's text, but RM is pretty amusing.
Hit the reply button, then cp what they posted. Highlight it and click the button with quotation marks. It will place that c/p'd quote in the grey quote box
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@Vaarka
Why lean town? I'd call his behavior null at best, slight scum at worst
I do like the consistency in application I can see from this though. Not specifically in uncc'd role claim, but CC's in general. Earlier you mentioned that vanilla is not cc'able, ergo suspicious.I may disagree with me being uncc'd in my role claim makes me town. But your FoS on Supa actually is consistent with this if this is one of the primary factors your using thus far in gauging that determination.I'm gonna slide you into the lean town category.
Post 131(case against Hammer)
And ask yourself, are there any realistic and reasonable town motives to these actions? I hold there are not.- Lack of reasonable town motives- advocacy for courses of action that would, by his own measure, most likely benefit mafia and disadvantage town-inconsistency in application of rationale, primary or otherwise.He's violating all three of this core differentiators between contrived/faked scumhunting and genuine scumhunting.
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@ethang5
I hear that the Judge is supposed to testify first. How is that correct?
That was one of the absurd demands requested by Ford's attorneys. They conceded on that per CNN and kavanaugh will go second.
Legit, know it's Fox News but Levin nails why this is just all so ridiculous
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@ethang5
Are we to believe at least 3 separate FBI investigations missed this?
This point is crucial in highlighting how absurd the allegations from Avenatti(LOL)are.
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@ethang5
Now if history is any indicator, the GOP will fold like a deck of cards. How I hope that doesn't happen
The last time this happened was Clarence Thomas and he got through 👍. From what I've read they've agreed on conditions for testimony, She's going to be testifying Thursday.
Two new accusations actually. One being that he exposed himself to a woman at a party in college.
The other from Michael Avenatti, the attorney for Stormy Daniels, on Sunday alleging that he has knowledge that Kavanaugh and high school friend Mark Judge targeted women with drugs and alcohol in order to "allow a 'train' of men to subsequently gang rape them. He did not state the source of his evidence and did not name any alleged victims."
Avenatti is even jumping in 😂S
Survey I saw somewhere had it at 28% men believe the allegations, 25% women believe them. But that was previous to the two new allegations.
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@ethang5
The Dems have another "victim" lined up if the GOP seems really to vote. Watch.
Just tonight someone else has come forward. Lol you nailed it 😂😂
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@Greyparrot
If you didn't have the no cc role claim, I'd put you as susp too
I do like the consistency in application I can see from this though. Not specifically in uncc'd role claim, but CC's in general. Earlier you mentioned that vanilla is not cc'able, ergo suspicious.
I may disagree with me being uncc'd in my role claim makes me town. But your FoS on Supa actually is consistent with this if this is one of the primary factors your using thus far in gauging that determination.
I'm gonna slide you into the lean town category.
So PoE via my reads now would leave scum being in Hammer, Earth, and Vaarka.
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@Greyparrot
There's also other things you wrote that were fshy, but it doesn't matter cause I don't susp you yet.
Eh, I disagree. I'd like to hear them. Not cause I'm necessarily looking to argue about them, rather, because it will shine a light on what you find to be "fishy" in general, no?
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Self preservation results in irrational behavior, period
Not period. Should I say, it often results in irrational behavior. Not always as period would imply in retrospect.
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@Greyparrot
and your attacks on RM were odd to me. If you didn't have the no cc role claim, I'd put you as susp too.
My one actual "attack" or FoS on RM was because I wasn't finding anywhere in which I could confirm Sally Rayburn did what he was claiming about her otherwise trying to make amends for her own misdeeds. Along with him claiming Sally Rayburn is main character, when she's not. She's a signifigant character, but not the main one from what I've researched of it.
I would even hazard to say it doesn't seem like there is really a true main character of the show. But can otherwise see how both town and mafia would be incentivized to lie/exaggerate about the signifigance of their character to spare themselves when at L-1. Self preservation results in irrational behavior, period.
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@Greyparrot
This is so weird..I have town vibe on RM and susp on Supa and your reads are polar opposite
In regards to Supa our reads are opposite, sure. But that likely is because we differ in whether Supas posts appear genuine or contrived.
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Whoops, I forgot Greyparrot, he's sus because I still cant help but feel his behavior towards me early game was just... off
Independent of that, he has not produced something that is indicative of affiliation beyond mere gut instinct. As with Vaarka I'm open to anything I'm missing.
If that continues it's gonna become sus AF to me tho, because fmpov at some point it becomes more likely the person is intentionally obfuscating affiliation in posts as opposed to unintentionally or accidentally obfuscating it. Something Danielle also pointed out with her claim that it looks like GP and Earth are being extremely cautious with what they post.
Given enough time townies otherwise will show they are town in behavior, mafia will show they are mafia in behavior, imho.
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Town Reads
Supadudz- all signs point to clueless towny fmpov
Lean Town
Rational- he generally acts suspicious of inherently. His character claim is a signifigant character and in a show filled with characters that are a far cry from "good", a character that admits to their misgivings and tries to correct them is, as drafter pointed out, as good as ur gonna get.
Drafter- His analysis is brief, but it's consistent in its rationale fmpov, and is exhibiting typical towny skepticism in that manner as well. He's also made multiple good points with his analysis independent of the aforementioned reasons.
Danielle- Less brief than Drafter, but otherwise exhibiting typical townie skepticism and caution. Particularly in her analysis of Hammer and Rational and asking for any information on their play history so as to properly gauge their behavior.
Null
Vaarka- nothing he's done is indicative of affiliation to me thus far. I'm open to anything I may otherwise be missing
Sus
Earth- not much activity, one total read, that being, "I think RM is town." This lack of substantive activity is concerning.
Scum Read
Hammer- I'll spare outlining the case yet again
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If my reads are accurate, then scum lies in Vaarka, Greyparrot, Earth, and Hammer by PoE. 2/4 being scum as 2 mafia v 7 town seems most probable from a standpoint of typical ratios of 1/3-1/4.
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@Greyparrot
Because I already knew why Earth voted, i wanted to hear from the other 2.
I'll admit, this is a feasible explanation.
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**Unofficial Vote Count**
Drafterman (1/5) - Supadudz
TheHammer (2/5) - Buddamoose, Drafterman
Supadudz (1/5) - TheHammer
Earth (1/5) - Rational
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If I missed anything, sorry ahead of time
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@Vader
A claim of vanilla could POTENTIALLY lead a mafia to kill me. I wasn't implying they would
No, it wouldn't. Mafia have no incentive to kill vanillas and every incentive to target other players who arent vanilla as they are potential power roles, such as cop or doc.
A vanilla claim affords a scum fake claiming it a convenient defense for why they haven't been nk'd.
A truthful vanilla claim, especially early game of ones own volition, narrows down potential power roles. Though I understand why you did it, and think you are genuine in your belief it was a reasonable action and/or helpful. It wasn't, it was harmful to town.
This isn't indicative of affiliation, but it is gonna piss people off.
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@Greyparrot
But, again, why exclude Earth from that list?
Because Earth said he was role fishing. Not a scum tell on early day1.[Post 155]
Though it's true this isn't a scum tell, it's not a town tell either. Unless you think rolefishing is a town tell, in which case, why?
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@Vader
But if RM claims to be VERY close to me, you would think it would be mentioned in the PMs
Uh, no I wouldn't think that's the case... why would you? Presumably I take it because your PM says
Nolan is my best friends
Ok so if grandma was VERY close to me, then it should without a doubt that the "matriarch" would be close
Wut? If the grandma was close to you, then it should (follow logically?) that the "matriarch", would be close Sally Rayburn is both the grandmother of Jane Rayburn and the matriarch of the Rayburn family...
But ignoring that, just because your PM mentions Jane is close with Nolan means it would mention every character you are close with, or mean any character not mentioned is automatically not close, because?
My pm mentions Danny Rayburn(Nolan's father) and states he returned to figure out who really killed his father. It doesn't mention Jane or that Nolan is close with you at all.
By your own logic that automatically would mean you must be scum if I'm town.
In post 97 you point out I'm practically confirmed if actually Nolan because your PM mentions it
Shall we test out your logic and lynch you? Or do you see the error in your thinking?
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@Vader
Yea i am not that big of a noob ik that..
If you know that, then why was this said?
It wasn't setting up myself for a NK targetMight as well claim vanilla and have mafia kill me in the night
Gotta say, this is pretty sus. Why act like you don't understand that mafia don't care about NK'ing vanillas, when you do? 😮
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@Vader
Even in your research when Granny didn't have a major role, it even says so there, it seems very susp
You aren't wrong, but Rational has seen the show in depth, or at least claims to have. And I later on found a source that evidences Sally actually is integral to bringing to light many things that had otherwise seemingly fractured the family. She sees the light for the most part, and plays a significant role in the show nonetheless. Just not a main character.
However consider that Rational was at L-1, and the panic that sometimes creates. People will say many manner a thing regardless of affiliation to prevent their lynching, even lying or shading the truth.
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@Greyparrot
@Vader
@Greyparrot- Also note in his ranting currently ongoing
It wasn't setting up myself for a NK target
Might as well claim vanilla and have mafia kill me in the night
?? @- supadudz: Mafia dgaf about NK'ing vanillas hombre. They wanna kill power roles like doc and cop. Claiming as vanilla early on when town helps narrow down the players who potentially have PR's
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@Vader
POSTS 107 AND 108
You are over relying on assumptions based off your own PM hombre. Even in post 97 you point out I'm practically confirmed if actually Nolan because your PM mentions it. Though true, it has no bearing on whether or not I'm being truthful about my claim to begin with.
In the listed posts you say Rational is scum because TUF didn't outline any close connection to Sally, assuming he would have. Presumably because of what you detailed in post 97. But just because one character was named in your PM due to being close to them, doesn't mean every character they are close with is going to be listed. Nor that there aren't characters beyond what's listed, that are close to ur character.
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@Greyparrot
That's not my point. what's the benefit to town to claim vanilla early?
It is true that there is not much benefit in it. But townies have in the past acted in many a manner that does not benefit town, no?
This standalone is sus, to be fair. But in conjunction with his activity as a whole? Fmpov as i said in the last post, more clueless than nefarious.
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@Greyparrot
I'm actually really pissed at Supa for early claiming vanilla.
It kinda screws over town power roles if he isn't lying about his claim.
I wanna point out though, that this fmpov operates as even more evidence he is clueless rather than nefarious.
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(we should otherwise break through an interior wall, get to the second floor, and break through the outer wall and jump and eat the damage. Shouldn't be much.)
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It appears that one could get lucky and use their natural dexterity to pass through, or deduce a pattern to the spinning through study.
I watch the blades and attempt to deduce any such pattern.
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@Greyparrot
How do you feel about Supas early vanilla claim?
It's not really indicative of anything fmpov. Vanilla is a safe claim as scum, but a towny if vanilla and being truthful would also claim, well, vanilla.
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@RationalMadman
Drafterman feels entitled to bully Lynch outs but doesn't want to claim himself.
Oh my lord you dramatic Debbie 😂.
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@RationalMadman
5 not 4
Ok. Well that's still a close to rigged game regardless. And how would "2 mafia teams" be functionally any different than 1 mafia team, 1 third party team? Or two third party teams?
The night kill. 2 NK's and a little over 1 to 1 ratio of scum to town? ur talking about a wtf imbalanced game...
The theory is highly improbable at best fmpov. Either way, it doesn't really change how we would otherwise operate even if true. Except in making it that we absolutely have to lynch and can't VTNL. Which seems to be what is going to happen anyway
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@drafterman
Listen, I'm not following your case. I went back and read Hammer's posts and I don't see it.
Post number 117
Yeah, I'm not character claiming. In case anyone is confused, this is what happened:1. RM said earlier that the only options for character claiming were everyone keeps their character a secret or everyone claims and we try to work out the liars from there2. RM character claims3. RM references his earlier statement in an attempt to strong arm everyone else into character claimingThere's still an 85% chance he's town imo, but a lynch might be worth it considering the 15% chance he's scum and the 100% chance we'd be cancelling his anti-town utility regardless.
Again, definitely implying the above actions are either scummy or anti-town in utility.
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@Greyparrot
Sometimes you have to shake the tree to see what falls out
Effing this man 😂😂
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