Total posts: 567
Posted in:
-->
@ADreamOfLiberty
I don't quite follow your logic.
the chance that both of us (on the list) are town would also be 25% which means you only have 75% room between Banana and I. 75%/2 = 37.5%.
Why are you dividing by 2?
Your calculation for lynching Lunatic first calculates the probability of lynching 1 scum within 2 days. If we took Lunatic 25%, Banana 37.5%, You 37.5% for granted (which isn't a great assumption- in the cases where his list has both scum or where scum!Lunatic includes his partner), that would indeed be 25% + 37.5% = 62.5%. But in that case, if we lynched through both you and Banana, it would be 75%, no?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
@ILikePie5
You’re assuming that there’s 2 scum, when there are likely 3. (Pie)
Not true. We have 7 alive. If there were 3 scum, this would be LYLO, and that would have been announced:
I will announce when a day is a MYLO/LYLO day. (Casey, Day 1 OP)
The optimist in me believes that the reason ADOL isn't claiming a target is just because he's scum and doesn't want to give up a shred of information, even if it would be WIFOM.
The reason there likely isn't three protective roles, is because it doesn't balance well. Mafia have three different roles that can fvck with their night kill? How is that fair? (Lunatic)
Strongman? It would make a lot of sense- a quick search reveals that there are multiple Russian leaders are considered to be a "political strongman." Putin and Stalin, for two. Although I'm not sure if Putin is even a potential character in this game.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
@Vader
@ILikePie5
What did everyone do and why? (Lunatic)
Full claim please (Pie)
I am Nikita Khrushchev. Because he negotiated for peace and safety, in some cases at the cost of effectiveness in other areas, I am the Jailkeeper. Each Night, I target someone- they are roleblocked, but protected from lethal actions.
I was on Whiteflame N1 and Vader N2. So this:
I targetted whiteflame NP1 and Pie NP2. I asked Whiteflame about the fruit because I just wanted to see if he would lie about it at all. Doesn't rule him out of POE but he was telling the truthI got nothing from you. So either you were manipulated or you’re lying
Is my fault, sorry about that.
I targeted Whiteflame Night 1 for two reasons. I thought that if he was Town and User was Scum, he might be a nightkill target, because he was against User but not really "leading the charge," so to speak. The second reason was because if WF was Scum, he might have carried the nightkill, since he was not really on anyone's radar. Either way, a lack of kill would have given me information.
I targeted Vader Night 2 because I townread him and because I suspected his role after he asked if anything happened to WF on Night 1.
Created:
Posted in:
My hot take is that we should not hammer this phase too early, although I do think ADOL is probably the correct vote.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Mharman
I targeted Whiteflame with my ability last Night.
Created:
Posted in:
Regarding the "We should lynch Lunatic" discourse, I thought he was a town lean even on Day 1, and it's not particularly convincing to me when the two people advocating it are people on the list.
I feel a little better about Pie than I did.
I do not feel better about WyIted/Mharman slot, nothing very inspiring there.
I would need to ruminate on it, but I'm not immediately opposed to voting anyone involved in the Dream. I suppose I should say that I am also a Protective role- so I'm not willing to clear ADOL on that front. I wouldn't call it exactly a counterclaim, but they're a bit similar. I can full claim if needed, though I would rather not, considering anti-claim exists.
I'll be back in a little while.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
It’s not identical to a bodyguard
Figured that out when I continued reading, yes.
Created:
Posted in:
Heartbreaking: Phase in Mafia game I'm hosting gets hammered as I'm reading this one.
I'll skim and get some quick thoughts out, will try for more later tonight. Thank you Casey for 72 hour Day Phases.
Lunatic's role seems powerful, but with a lack of any other claimed investigatives (at least, as of Page 4) + no way of knowing that nobody visited him, it seems solid. Every Night is a lot, but now that it's outed he probably won't be allowed to get another shot off. Which means That2, Banana, ADOL, I'll hold onto that while I read.
Now that you mention it re-reading the bolded part makes me question if I could get two on the same result, something I did not specifically ask. I will ask now. I just assumed no. I've never had this role before.
Although this seems extremely relevant and something you should have asked Casey immediately, but fine.
I'm not a huge fan of how metaphorical ADOL's claim is compared to both flips and other claims. The Princess is a princess. The person who brought people together is a Neighborizer. The person who was a diplomat is an Emissary. The person with big ideas is a Dreamer. But a concept that seems deceptive being a "shield" sounds a little tortured, in comparison.
Agreed, also I think if he was scum his partner would have just told him to claim bodyguard, which is essentially what he is.
Might depend on the partner. It's exactly identical to a Bodyguard, couldn't the renaming be intended to fit it closer to the character?
Created:
Posted in:
I... really don't understand how Savant's role was supposed to bolster That2's?
Created:
Posted in:
My point about LYLO/MYLO is that we have 11 players. If there were, say, 3 Mafia, worst-case would typically go:
8-3 at Day -> 7-3 at Night -> 6-3 at Day -> 5-3 at Night -> 4-3 at Day (LYLO)
In order for that to reach MYLO instead of LYLO, there would need to be an extra kill, a missed kill, or a 3P. It wouldn't be the "default" of the game. So I don't get why you were saying one over the other.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
I’ve actually never played in an anti claim game
Was Albums Mafia that forgettable? The one where you were scum with access to an anti-claim ability?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
My main point is that saying LYLO is usually the "default," so it seems significant to me that he's saying "MYLO" instead. That terminology does get used here often enough that it wouldn't be confused, right?
Created:
Posted in:
Okay, back on track.
Earth is probably unpaired with Pie if Pie scum because 107 and 108 is just so blatant. I can see Pie doing that, but I struggle to see Earth doing that in a paired world. In any case, Earth is never a big talker, so that's not indicative one way or another. I'm not a huge fan of his behavior, especially the dismissiveness in 120. Also not a big fan of his POE because I don't think it can have more than 1 Mafia. Not a big fan of Earth in general, really.
Most of my WF read here is based on the recent reads list. A lot of the information in it seems like it's based on the That2 Controversy (which will inspire 6 hour long video essays years from now). As much as I don't like the whole "only one scum read" thing, that is also unfortunately a Whiteflame Classic that I will simply have to cope with. Maybe a slightish town lean?
WyIted
Giys I am going to be useless this game unlesI make something happen with my role, so the first strong town read I get I am just going to srongly support whatever they are doing.
Thumbs down. I know you can do better than that.
I think Savant is probably town because of the early oopsie, but the thing that makes me unwilling to fully send that is how immediately everyone seemed on board with calling the slot town when the OP explicitly says:
There is a fakeclaim mechanic in play, as well.
I'm going to go on a run, cogitate a little more. Hit me with your feedback about this. I'll be back in a little while.
Created:
Posted in:
Actually, have to aside to say something. I see Pie saying multiple times that he wants to be lynched the day before MYLO. This is a really small thing but it feels significant and I'd love a sanity check about whether or not I'm insane. MYLO is when Town > Mafia by exactly 2 at the start of a Day. But that wouldn't usually happen in a case like this, right? Days usually start with an odd number of players. So usually, the phase where the game is at stake is LYLO, (4-3, 3-2, 2-1), not MYLO. Unless you had a 3P in the mix, an extra kill, or a missed kill.
So I'm wondering if this could be a 3P slip. Or a Mafia KP slip? Not sure. Someone tell me if I'm crazy or not.
Created:
Posted in:
Not... as many posts as I would have expected. Guess that makes it easier to catch up.
Danilay/ADOL slot is a 0-poster, skipping that.
I'm still uneasy about the That2 slot and the claim confusion, but I think I would much rather give it at least one night and see if anything happens related to it before lynching there. The particular claim seems like one that Mafia would make, and the way it was handled wasn't great, but it does also fit well with a person who seems famous enough to be in a game like this.
I was bouncing back and forth on whether Lunatic's interaction there was more "Town locking in on an issue" or "Mafia going after an easy vote." I think it's more likely the former just because he went through a lot of clarifications- which did in fact turn out to be unhelpful- before actually placing a vote.
Pie I'm not very happy with at the moment. I don't really like the Vader (That's "Supa," right?) sus for hanging around the edges when they proposed the claiming idea in the first place, I don't agree that their posts were all fluff. And I'm not a big fan of the whole "be indirect but specific" idea, because I'm pretty sure he's played at least one game here where anti-claim doesn't require calling out an explicit claim. It could loophole anti-claim, but it could just as easily be giving Mafia free fodder for whatever that might be, no?
Vader I was initially worried about hanging around the edges, but on the contrary, I think they've contributed well. The Russian/Soviet idea is a decent way to force Mafia into partial claiming here, and they were pretty open about reads fairly early.
Banana, for Day 1 when we don't have a lot to go on, I will defer to the multiple people saying she wouldn't draw attention to herself like this as scum after last game. Whatever happened there.
Continuing next post...
Created:
Posted in:
Hi all- Sorry for being MIA for the last day or so. I'm going to catch up and figure out where I'm at in terms of voting.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ILikePie5
There’s a potential loophole though to the fake claiming mechanic. Just soft claim hard enough and then confirm what you are, which is what I would advise everyone to do.
Did you mean this as a loophole to potential anti-claim?
... Actually, what does "fake claiming mechanic" even mean here? Is that the one where scum guesses characters and gets told if they exist?
Created:
Posted in:
The next day is skipped if you die in any way? That's probably something that should have stayed hidden.
Also, please don't assume knowledge, I know almost nothing about this person and while I could have searched for it, "the myth that she survived" was not something I knew off-hand.
The one thing that makes me nervous about the claim is that it's something focused entirely around not dying- the way you phrase it, you need protection at night and can't be safely voted out.
Mm. I think I might look into it a little more later when I'm not on mobile. I'll hold off on dropping a vote for now.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Vader
I feel like if they had a partner they would've told them to do claim something else and don't soft it
I think this would largely depend on the partner, no? But generally, I do agree that I would not expect Banana to be much of a risk taker as scum.
Created:
Posted in:
My character is in Soviet history.
I was assassinated
It's vaguely amusing how this doesn't really narrow it down as much as one would expect.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
However based on your experience in the last game
Is it worthwhile go back and read up on that, or is it a "you had to be there" sort of experience?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@iamanabanana
Good evening all, I'm back once more. Unfortunately have to echo that I'm not stellar at Russian history (or any kind of history, really.)
I'm debating whether or not to hand Savant an early town lean off that claim. It kind of feels like figuring out the character would have been inevitable with how specific the hint was.
I am going to go with an "Honesty is the best policy approach here" and tell you all that when I looked up my role, it seems its commonly aligned with the mafia.
Hm... For a moment I misunderstood and thought you meant your character was Mafia-aligned. But your role- this isn't a Miller claim, right?
Created:
Posted in:
Definitely a different atmosphere than here, especially considering most roles are Vanilla. But it's certainly worth trying if you're looking for something different.
I might be repping a different community- who knows, we might end up in the same game, like last year.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
Being hot factors into guilt and innocence for most of the public.
There's a Luigi joke to be made here, surely.
Created:
Posted in:
Good game. I was still thinking it was Austin and ADOL.
I was really surprised that neither Whiteflame nor Cerulean noticed the differences in roles. Scum claimed Motivator and Bulletproof, which are outliers in a weird Arsonist, Singer, VooDoo Lady, and Oracle. The former two are relatively common.
We did discuss this, but discarded it because there was no real way to know for certain if every single Town-aligned role was going to be something unusual. I thought that Singer and Motivator were both roles that a wolf would look at and say, "This is a good fake claim in a game of unusual roles."
Mharman and Austin made some risky plays, but it clearly worked out well for them.
Regardless, it turns out that I am, in fact, still washed in LYLO scenarios.
Created:
Posted in:
At this point, I don't really see myself coming to a different conclusion. I think Austin and Mharman are hard unpaired and ADOL's role makes a lot of sense as an "Oh God, we need to fake claim, quick! Find an unusual role that makes sense!" claim.
I'll drop my vote now, WF should be left to hammer and give a final legacy.
VTL ADOL
I'll drop my vote now, WF should be left to hammer and give a final legacy.
VTL ADOL
Created:
Posted in:
A lot of this turns on whether or not Mharman's defense of WyIted on Day 2 came from a place of TMI or not. He came in defending WyIted pretty much instantly there...
Granted, so did I. Although this:
I just don’t think there’s any reason to say Wylted’s scum, not even in the slightest.
Was much stronger than what I was saying.
My eyes are starting to hurt staring at this website. I'm going to sleep and come back to this in the morning. Right now, I'm in a position of wanting to lynch ADOL, but I'm not quite ready to commit to that.
Created:
Posted in:
It wasn't like you could predict WyIted deciding to throw things into a spin and let me live- if you're scum there, you're almost definitely setting up on the assumption that I'm going to get lynched and flip Town.
Created:
Posted in:
Austin is a conditional scumlean if we are wrong on Creulean. I don’t think he’s explaining his thoughts well enough on his a couple of his townreads. Bit of a vibe thing as well. Null otherwise.
My other top scumread is Whiteflame. The vibes on him are fine, but the defense of Cwruean is weird to me. I firmly disagree with a few of his points.
Both Mharman, late Day 1. Seems like it would be an odd decision to put yourself in a situation where if I got lynched (and it was very much looking like I would get lynched at that point), your top scumread would be your partner. Again, not impossible, but it would be risky.
Created:
Posted in:
Someone has been playing well. Or I'm just bad at the game. Rereading Day 1, I'm struggling to imagine an Austin/Mharman team just from the way they interact a couple of times, but I'm not sure if I'm setting the bar high enough there.
Created:
Posted in:
Don't remind me...if we hit one of ADOL/Mharman today then WF is almost always dying tonight.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@ADreamOfLiberty
Why?In that case, at this moment, I would side with Whiteflame and Cerulean for admittedly weak reasons. (ADOL)
Created:
Posted in:
You can't claim that the scum team is ADOL/Mharmen if I lynch Mharmen. (ADOL)
The worst thing is that this could still technically be a villager.
Unlikely, but could. Does a wolf ADOL ever say this if the team is exactly ADOL/Mharman? Even for a newbie, it seems very blatant and over-the-top. Potentially a double-triple-reverse psychology, I suppose.
I'm waiting for Cerulean or WF to weigh in to prove that I'm not partnered with either of you by being willing to lynch whoever the people outside of POE want, showing that I genuinely believe that you and Mharman are both scum. (Austin)
This line makes me... really uneasy. Because, Austin, I know for a fact that you're capable of bussing and being bussed since we did it in Classical Movies. I don't see why you being willing to potentially lynch either player "proves" that you aren't partnered.
I've had, frankly, a stubborn and unreasoning bad feeling about Austin since Day 2 that I can't really substantiate. I need to go and actually reread the previous days.
Created:
Posted in:
This is why we take calculated risks. We now have about 31 hours left to pick someone out of the remaining 3. (Or 4, if you want to count me.)
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
@Mharman
@ADreamOfLiberty
@AustinL0926
WHITEFLAME IS INNOCENT.
Created:
Posted in:
For the record, I haven't received anything yet. I don't know if it's because it failed/WF is lying or if Pie just hasn't been on to give me the info. I'll give it a couple more hours, just in case.
Good to know that specific decision didn't throw the game, at least.
Created:
Posted in:
After that Day 1, I'm not sure how I happened to end up in the position where I need to make this decision.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
After some consideration, I have decided to take the risky path, for three reasons:
1. It provides potentially the most information with the least effort.
2. My role suggests a reason to believe it is not a fatal Voodoo Lady- My ability goes off only when nightkilled, day kills so not count. If a Mafia-aligned day kill existed, I would expect it to be covered by my role.
3. The overall setup. If WF is a Mafia Voodoo Lady, it would mean Mafia has additional kill power in what I perceive as an already-difficult setup for Town. (Though a lot of that difficulty has come from our own mistakes.)
Therefore, this is my acknowledgement that I may be making a game-losing blunder.
Created:
Posted in:
Currently mired in an angleshoot that I need to double-check with Mharman's role, I might have hallucinated it though.
The problem is, and I did not think of this until Night already came, is that if WF is a fatal version of Voodoo Lady, saying the word would instantly end the game for a Mafia win. So I'm going to think it through before I actually do it.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
That follows, unfortunately he'll probably be dead, and after that there won't be room for a single mistake.
There's already not much room for a mistake. If we lynch wrong here, we lose unless Mafia has some miraculously bad negative utility role or someone partially fake claimed.
Since I didn’t get to use my role, I can say whatever I want about it. My speech is only restricted insofar as I cannot say the word myself. I didn’t get to ask about other forms of it, but I wasn’t intending to use them.
So you could have just said "Hey, Lunatic, can you pretty please write out the full name for JOAT?" and that would have been fine?
Created:
Posted in:
If Lunatic isn't going to be here, we shouldn't vote- a correct lynch needs 4 votes here, so if he's Town and not present, that means that any successful lynches will likely be wrong.
It's unfortunate, but maybe Whiteflame can get that ability off? Otherwise, tomorrow's going to be more of the same.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@whiteflame
This is a really late time to be asking, but WF, how exactly is your speech restricted with your word? You can't say the exact word, what about other forms of it? Are you allowed to discuss the specifics?
I'm having a last-minute hesitancy about what would be stopping you from hard claiming that and then being extremely obvious about your word, if that role were to be real.
Also, I may as well ask because I don't recall you saying it, what was the word you were using?
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
Maybe should have put names to quotes there. First is Lunatic, second is Whiteflame, third and fourth are ADOL.
I wonder if No Lynching here might not be a bad idea. If Whiteflame is, in fact, Town, it would give him an extra chance to use his ability. That, of course, assumes that Whiteflame is Town and that the Mafia Roleblocker(?) doesn't have another shot. Besides that ability, we don't have anything in the way of Night power here.
Lunatic, where are you at, both theme-wise and overall? Regardless of what happens, this is probably your last day, so it would be good if you had a complete-ish legacy.
Created:
Posted in:
-->
@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@ADreamOfLiberty
What does your targeting a person do?
I think ADOL misinterpreted voting for WyIted as something that should have been reported.
while Bulletproof is most definitely an outlier in terms of how normal it appears compared to the rest, it also seems necessary to balance this game.
Maybe. It's possible that since we appear to have so much negative utility, Mafia might also have some sort of negative utility that restricts their kill ability? That's just spitballing, though.
Although I was never sure Wylted was scum and never said I was sure, there was something that made his claims somewhat suspicious and reading the exact role I see I was right about that, that can wait till after the game since Wylted can't comment.If anyone thinks my analysis was suspicious before I'll explain why I think the suspicion (beyond the theme association) was valid even though it turned out to be wrong.
I'd like for you to elaborate. As much as I would like to, I can't keep giving you the "this player is new and not playing like newbie scum" pass forever. Whtieflame's point about your role seeming tailor-made to fit mine has some merit.
I am unlikely to support lynching Mharman.
Why?
Created: