Mikal

did speed ask to remove himself from the game?

I didn't even read the op post in this because I assumed there wouldn't be a night kill, but all the logic stays the same other than having 2 mislynches instead of 1

But how in the fuck did speed die?

I def didn't see that. How the fuck is dead if we lynched the only way to kill. 

I likely am forgiving super way more than I thought for being dumb, and just being all over the place. I have no idea how to look at his gameplay and i'm leaning toward the stuff he did that typically would look scummy if anyone else did it, is likely not scummy because he actually has no idea wtf he is doing. 

My choice this DP would be Oro, for the reasons listed in the above post. 

I would also say speed, but speed was actively on during that drafter lynch and didn't hammer when he had every reason to want to hammer

Just read over last dp. I realized I also probably portrayed this bad, when i was saying 6 to 2 and 5 to 2. I was referring to the total number of players vs the total number of mafia (6 total players, 2 total mafia), I did not clarify that and it made sense typing it but re reading that it could have been confusing

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On this post 

3/4 on water

people not on this post are something to look at because mafia would be hesitant to lynch their team (typically)

People not in on this lynch 

1. Me

2. Oro (first reason I have him on radar in hindsight)

3. Supa 

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I start the train on drafter

oro jumps in on this like 1 min after i post it, so he is heavily watching this dp. He had not posted for around 15 mins prior to this, and the second i put drafter up, he is typing within seconds to get this post up within a minute of me starting that)

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supa jumps on the train

Again I have such a hard time reading super because I don't know what is just him being supa or him actually trying to jump on a train. Again having played with him in both live mafia, and forum games before, he typically is all over the place

this brings the drafter vote to 3/4

with 

1. me

2. oro

3. supa

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Speedrace unvotes and says drafter is town and doesn't hammer. With drafter being offline, now talking myself through this as i'm reading and typing. I actually think speed is town. There is no reason for him not to hammer here, especially with him being afk and not posting anything of worth in the dp. He likely would have hammered here if he was mafia

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People who did not hammer drafter at this point

Ragnar - https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/3828/role-pass-quickfire-dp1?page=6&post_number=130 (who was online during this point)

Speedrace - https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/3828/role-pass-quickfire-dp1?page=6&post_number=131 (who also was online and claimed drafter was town to defend him as i said above)

Water - https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/3828/role-pass-quickfire-dp1?page=6&post_number=134 (who turned out to be scum, but literally read like 3 lines this dp. I think he would have hammered, if he were active. He just likely had no idea what was going on)

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I second guess myself and unvote 

wanted drafter to defend himself first and i wanted to avoid a hammer

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I go back on drafter with like 25 mins left because I don't think he will respond and its the only lynch I think we would be able to get, and we had to lynch due to not lynching being retarted 

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Drafter Responds and I automatically unvote to give him a chance to defend himself before the lynch

Drafter responding - https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/3828/role-pass-quickfire-dp1?page=7&post_number=153

Me unvoting - https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/3828/role-pass-quickfire-dp1?page=7&post_number=154

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drafter responding to why lynch water

"Why not"

This means he is either just yolo lynching to try and get a lynch which would make sense due to us having to lynch or he targeted him with a bus knowing he was the gunsmith. Just to town confirm himself and ride the game out so he can win. He he bussed he wins, I tend to lean toward the former

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we end up voting water and oro is the very last vote

But that is after I was tagging everyone and telling people to vote

My lynch pool would be 

Oro  ( he seemed to sheep quite a bit last dp, even with my bad logic from not reading the rules)

Speed (just because this is utility, he contributes nothing to even look at. So it's a shot at hitting mafia when it would be near Impossible to gain reads either way )

Ragnar ( as the last lynch by poe)

I think supa is supa and has no idea what he's doing or saying half the time. I don't think it's a scum thing. I've never not read a game with him in it and wondered wtf is he doing. 

Also really want to re look at who was online during the part drafter was almost lynched. The fact no one hammered means mafias votes could have been on him 

It's 5 to 1 

So we get 3 mislynches. If drafter bussed, he's already won so it doesn't matter. So drafter is basically confirmed town win or lose 

The Ragnar would have surrendered if he is mafia argument is invalid. It's basically the fourtrouble argument. 

As far as Ragnar , I would be hesitant to lynch him because I buy into the fact he was doing something that he thought was good and that was a bad idea. The only motivation other wise would have been for town cred 

The issue with this game going forward is any np analysis is even more useless than the start of the game. Since roles have no alignment and night actions are just passing between each other carries nothing worth looking at. Best thing we can do is get a pool of players to Lynch from.

Largely I think this site has a far weaker pool of players than ddo had so it's very hard to gain anything from reads on people as well

You have super who has posted basically nothing but fluff , speed race who has posted 3 things , etc 

It's very hard to get telling reads on people based on motivation. I want to re read the last dp and look at oro though. 

Supa isn't feigning not understanding the game, if you have played with him before he is actually that clueless sometimes

At least it's 5 to 1 now

If drafter bussed then he wins. 

I really doubt that is the case, it took me half the dp to figure out we needed to Lynch to get an extra lynch and drafter was on that from the start. He also refused to out he was the vest maker, until being lynched thinking it was a bad idea to out as town

Im operating under the fact he's confirmed town going forward and if he did bus, he deserves the win. Because everything from now is strictly behavior without useful results because np has no value. 

And everything thus far has been pro town from him 

(1) either drafter is confirmed town

(2) he just pulled off the most 5 head buss ever 

read above

hammer water, so we get something off this dp

there is no reason not to get a lynch off

and even if hes town, hes been gone half the dp anwyay and posted like 5 things

at this point supa it doenst matter if we are right or wrong. Any lynch is better than no lynch. 

Bar a perfect vest pass to block a nk we have to lynch someone or its a waste

Typing this because we have 10 mins. 

He didn't give a reason why he would push a random lynch

he explained that he had the math worked out that we needed to lynch ( that is correct) I came to this and posted this the last half of the dp, and i totally buy that drafter is smart enough to have figured this out at the start and didn't post why because he was away. He's been offline for 7 hours have been watching. If he actually thought that and i buy it, it would make sense to random lynch because we have to lynch someone 

he consistently said other rolls shouldn't claim and he didn't until we was going to die. He follows his own logic, and as mafia he would have prob tried to claim this and fuck with us to confuse us

stop being a retard and vote water, admit you can be wrong. 

ive been wrong half this dp, he was actually afk

at least get a lynch off 

and hes not being cced so that verifies his claim

I buy drafter as town. If he was pushing a mislynch and using my own math against me to swade me then props. I do wager he probably already did the math before I figured it out and didn't post because he was afk.

also he had no reason not to claim vest maker as mafia, at least for town cred and stuck with not saying it until he was about to die

his logic is consistent in this scenario

going water because i know drafter will lynch him and we have to have a lynch or we are stupid

we need a random lynch either way and fast 5 mins

pick between water or speed

not because he claimed vest maker but because his logic is consistent

he thought not outing was town utility and held on to that until he was about to be lynched, mix that in with I buy into the fact he already had did the math on why to lynch before i posted  and was shooting at a random lynch on a gut instinct

drafter is town

fucking yikes

why water or im going to hammer you

Trying to weigh if you had already did the match on why to lynch prior to me posting it and you just were offline or you have been weighing what to say

make some case on your read

8 mins

serious 10 mins, why water fast

I've been watching his account

he has either be offline reading the game and rephrased what I said when I went back over why to lynch  now

or he just came back on literally

10 mins

why water

hammer

No lynching is useless and we aren't going to get a lynch on anyone but drafter at this point and he will not be here to defend himself

I'm really second guessing this and would like to hear his logic on some things but at this point , not lynching is the same as lynching wrong

at least we have a shot with drafter. I quite possibly may have fucked the town by building a case without being able to hear from him

again doing this because literally not lynching gives us the same problem next dp and I still have a gut feeling about this

walk me through this logic

i'm second guessing this drafter pick so hard

The reason i'm pushing for someone to claim the armor thing is! at this point is because I'm sure they have to be town. Mafia would have claimed for town cred or played it off in a attempt to pass it to a person we told them to. Meaning whoever has this is only not claiming because they think they are helping town.

Gun is obviously not claiming because he is going to get lynched, and tech one person could have 3 rolls

i was for sure water was going to claim the armor guy, now im starting to think its drafter and he isnt claiming because he thinks its stupid to claim. I really want to hear from him before we pick a target

this is so frustrating 

time check

drafter explain yourself

also to clarify why i said i dont think we will lynch, is its like 2 hours and everyone is afk but without info, trusting my gut on the drafter thing

I don't think we are going to lynch, and I refuse to lynch water until I hear from drafter why and if he can explain what he is thinking. I think water is the armor guy

and I'm going to trust my instinct as wrong as it can be

claim

anything we have now helps us

Okay reading this back this is the claims list

Oro - Vanilla

Super - Vanilla

Me - Vanilla (Claiming now)

Rag - Mech

Speed - Vanilla

Drafter - ?

Water - ?

I still think drafter is scum but for an entirely different reason after thinking on it hard

(1)  Lynching the gunsmith now is prob the most inherent towny thing we could do. Because it would give us 2 more lynch chances and night phases to analyze.Drafter suggesting this is either inherently towny or he is scum and knows they have the gun(as mafia), and he is doing this to build town cred knowing no one on town will claim gunsmith (obviously because he has the gun) and it would allow him to push a lynch on someone. He went for a read lynch on water and the only post I can even find that may give him some sort of a read to push a lynch like this is 

#21 where water asks luna can mafia pass the gun between each other. Maybe drafter could read that as water being like, o crap i have the gun and i can pass this to my scum buddy, but other than that, water has posting nothing to justify a lynch. 

Going Past this we have to lynch today, for reasons I explained above and I was right about this time and not just rambling. There is 2 ways this game can go assuming mafia has the gun, and they have to have the gun because not outing as this point confirms they have it. Because whatever drafters motivation for posting that was, he's right. Lynching the gunsmith atm, is the best choice. 

path 1

day 1 - vtnl 

night 2 - kill 6 to 2

day 2 - (we have to lynch now because they have the gun and will float it, so not lynching ends the game either way) 5 to 2

night 2 - kill  4 to 2

game over

path 2 

dp1 - Lynch - 6 to 2 (if mislynch)

np1 - kill 5 to 2 

dp2 - lynch or lose

No matter what path 2 is the best option because it gives us 2 lynches. The only thing that would change is is a 1/7 chance the vest goes to the right person, but still ends up affecting nothing because they will continue to pass the gun back and forth. The only way to break this is to kill one of the mafia so the gun has to go to a towny

I think we mass claim now and i'll explain why

we are likely going to lynch cus drafter is pushing it and by not lynching we lose a lynch and only will have 1 (as i said)

so being able to use process of elim by locking people into roles gives us a better shot at hitting a lynch. I am also convinced the guy who passes the armor is town because he would have claimed it already as mafia, he's lowkey trying to pass it and hope he gets it right

point being is the more information we have now

we are likely to hit a lynch at a higher rate, than the body guard actually blocking a nk. So anything we have now we need to claim because no matter what it won't affect the game cus mafia has the gun. 

so spill your roles

walk me through your logic 

Actually walking this back

I didn't math out the other way, even if we vtnl tomorrow ends the game. 

np1 - 6 to 2

lynch tomorrow - 5 to 2 ( We have to lynch assuming they have gun)

np2 - it still wound end

reverting what im saying, under the assumption they have the gun, we actually have to lynch today because it gives us 2 lynches vs 1

Dude you people are literally making me log into my computer to type this. Drafter is a super experience player. Again really think about the game balance and what has happened so far. 

(1) Rag instantly claimed mechanic 

(a) for town cred

(b) for whatever stupid reason he decided was a good idea (no offense just don't think this was a good move)

(2) It actually would make sense for the gunsmith to out with where this is going currently, the fact that he hasn't means mafia likely has the gun

(3) If mafia has the gun then they are 100 percent going to pass it back and forth to each other. The only way to avoid this is if we lynch a mafia. The mafia who has it would have to pass it town regardless due to the rules

Drafter is an experience player, he is not a retard. 

(4) With this game having 7 people, if mafia gets a mislynch it will work like this

dp1 - 6 to 2

np1 - they kill 5 to 2

dp2 - no matter what happens, whether we vtnl or not, they still have the gun. They will nk on np2 and its plurality mafia and they win

Drafter has this already worked out, he is either scum or he is 100 percent sure water is scum. There is nothing water has posted to say he is scum, there is no reads. Drafter is also not this autistic to do this. He thinks you people are sheeps and will just follow

Drafter is scum and one of the people sheeping him are scum

Drafter

Speed Race, or Rag

that is the scum team, or drafter has lost his mind 

Mafia wants a mislynch right now. Especially if they have the gun because if they do have the gun (and I agree we can assume they have since they have not outed ) 

That makes us have to get it right tomorrow or it's done. 

Drafter is smart enough to know this as well 

Drafter is leading a random lynch

Speed race and rag are sheeping 

Just keep that in mind. 

To walk through this if we mislynch we are at mylo tomorrow. (if we don't hit the gun Smith) . That means it's basically lylo assuming mafia has the gun because we either have to lynch properly tomorrow or they will pass the gun back to each other and the nk will end the game. 

Don't blindly lynch ffs 

If we don't hit the gun Smith and if mafia has the gun we are effectively at lylo tomorrow

Take your votes off ffs

Dude wtf is going on with this do. 

Can we vtnl

People are sheeping drafter hard , there is no reason not to vtnl. Even if they have the gun it doesn't matter. It gives us a dp without mylo to analyze a np

Juggling the gun*

Or drafter is scum, and has the gun and is trying to push a mislynch so he gets a confirmed nk by juggling the scum with his scum buddy. 

I would still vtnl and pray we get a proper vest to someone.