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@Lunatic
@drafterman
That being said, I can finally town read you two because you're finally arguing.
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@Lunatic
@drafterman
You're clogging up the DP with this argument. It isn't productive.
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@Lunatic
@drafterman
@Lunatic
You're right.
@drafterman
And you are right also.
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Sigh. It's just gonna be skittlez's day, isn't it? Oh well. If he does get lynched, at least he's just a miller.
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@oromagi
If LOVERS are both TOWN and my statement of the obvious changes SCUM's mind and LOVERs survive, then I have done TOWN a favor.
Not exactly. In that case, town would be more likely to mislynch the lovers. The problem I have with your statement is that you're essentially telling scum how they can influence your thought process. Yes, it's an obvious thing to say; however, it helps scum because they are free to go after potential power roles while you mislynch the lovers. If you say that if X happens I'll think Y, then you give the mafia the chance to manipulate you.
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@Lunatic
I'm pretty baffled that you of all people were convinced by the "let's rush the phase all the time" logic.
I wasn't. I don't think we should rush the DP at all, and I don't think that's what drafter is trying to say. I'm just wondering whether we can get anything more info out of this DP. On the other hand, I suppose that longer DP's do seem to help people develop their reads. Honestly, both you and drafter make good points. I often find myself agreeing with whoever's post I'm reading.
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@drafterman
There is literally nothing to be gained by waiting. Everyone has chimed in. Unless someone has a day phase roke and is going to produce results then all the information that we are going to get has already been gotten. From here on out people are just going to repeat themselves (like I already am) and talk in circles.There is nothing to be gained by waiting until the very last second to decide except to clog up the thread with redundant posts and make people bored.
You're beginning to win me over. Unless someone claims, which would likely be bad, or someone gives off an obvious scum tell, which I doubt will happen, I doubt we'll get any more useful info to help us decide on this DP's lynch.
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All right, I've looked into the possibility that oromagi is scum. He has been consistently questioning the lovers. He also openly stated that he would suspect them if they don't get NK'ed. This could be scum trying to set up a mislynch. It could also be typical oromagi trying to get to the bottom of things. The case against him is honestly flimsy. I think he's probably town. However, I also think that there's a higher chance that he's scum than anyone else, though not by a lot. I could go along with an oro lynch in lieu of any better options.
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@Lunatic
@drafterman
Lynching oro is an interesting idea. I don't like that statement either, but it does sound like something oro would say. On the other hand, it could be scum trying to pave the way for a mislynch of the lovers later. Seems thin to me, but I've got no better ideas. I'll look into it tonight.
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@drafterman
That was fun. Can we lynch now?
Have any suggestions about who to lynch?
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@oromagi
Henry V, Act 3, Scene 6.
DuckDuckGo is your friend.
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@drafterman
Thanks. Shakespeare isn't my strong suit.
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@drafterman
What's the name of the original? Would I be correct in guessing it was originally about death?
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@drafterman
There is rarely ever much to go on DP1 (except the game where you got lynched DP1, lulz).
Yeah, I deserved that one.
I mean. WORST CASE SCENARIO. We lost a Miller. Who's weeping tears. Really.
Not me. I'm guessing skittlez is town, but millers are pretty expendable.
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@drafterman
That sounds like it's copied with a few words changed.
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Now the question is how to go about finding scum to lynch. That's something I've never been good at.
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@oromagi
I don't mind lynching but none of the three claims seem like viable targets for the reasons I've given. We need someone else to target for some reason not yet offered.
I agree with this. Regardless, there are two days left in the DP. No need to rush to a decision.
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@oromagi
I know that you know, but your knowledge didn't prevent you from trying to draw conclusions about what lovers combinations are more or less likely. I'm just reminding you that such conclusion have very little weight.
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@drafterman
@oromagi
You know what reveals things? Lynches.
Yup. We can't learn anything by speculating about balance in DP1. Trying to figure out the lovers' affiliations based on balance is a pipe dream.
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@oromagi
For anyone still reading this far: BOOKMARK THIS POST. Several people talked about how such and such combination is unbalanced. Personally, I have been quite clear and vocal on this matter: YOU CANNOT DRAW ANY CONCLUSIONS ABOUT BALANCE WITHOUT KNOWING ALL THE ROLES. Looking at two roles and saying they can't be in the game together because that would be OP is bogus because you don't know what other roles exist that could balance it out. You simply don't know until you know what the Mafia can do and you can't know that until you kill them all.
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@oromagi
Well, I certainly hope town has plenty of protective roles. However, don't put too much stock in the game's balance. It's role madness. It's bound to be swingy.
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At least, not lynching isn't a good strategy if we do it every time.
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@drafterman
That's a wild card for sure. And we really can't anticipate how that will go. If a protective role is on one but the other is killed, what happens? Are they even lovers? Are they even town sided? Will maf try and gamble killing them or save them for a potential mislynch based on the fact that maf hasn't tried killing them?
All good questions. I don't know the answers, although I can guess at the first one. In the Civil War mafia, Speed ruled that they would both die if one was shot and the other was protected. I would guess that the same applies here.
Now that I think about it, I'm not sure we can figure out what leads to MYLO and what leads to LYLO. If the mafia really want to get to MYLO, they can get there, and there's not a lot we can do about it except delay it by not lynching, which isn't a good strategy.
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@drafterman
Concerning lynch vs. no lynch, we need to remember that there are lovers in the game. If we lynch someone and the mafia shoots the lovers, it will be 4v2 next DP. Thus, lynching sets up MYLO, whereas a no lynch sets us up for LYLO. I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch someone, but I don't think a random lynch would help us.
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@Lunatic
VTNL, to prevent further POE. Unless someone says something pretty scummy later that stands out to me. Gun to my head? I'd randomize it I guess. This is a role madness game, so I am a little more confident in potential results going into dp2 then I am gambling pressuring someone to out another power role.
After reading that, I might pick vtnl also. I'd prefer just to see how things develop and decide a lynch later, though.
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@drafterman
This is a gun-to-your-head situation. Someone has to die. Who?
Gun to my head? Chris. He's hard to read, and I haven't played with him much.
Really though, there isn't much to set apart any of my null reads from any of the others, and my town reads are both negative utility roles, so it doesn't make too much difference. I don't have any scum reads yet, so I can't give you a good answer.
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@drafterman
If you had to lynch someone RN, who would you lynch?
Tough one, especially since I'm pretty slow at forming scum reads. I don't know. Any of my null reads, I guess.
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@Vader
I just wanted him to tell me what he really really wants
I want a chain, I want a phone, I want a purse, I want some cash,
I want a really really really big bag for my stash.
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@Vader
I don't know how many games you've been in with Skittlez, but some of his games he just lazily claims and doesn't defend or his defense is a basic defense. Why the sudden change of pace?
Only one or two. I've read a bunch of his games, though. Maybe I should reread a few.
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@Vader
Yes but him defending himself there was him being lazy as mafia. This just seems manufactured by him. If he was that lazy as scum, he would put the effort now if he improved. I think he is competent of improving, but his response seemed manufactured. I didn't read it as a skittlez defense.
I'm not sure I buy this. It's possible, but it didn't seem manufactured to me.
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@Intelligence_06
Can you confirm SupaDudz here?Are you able to PM each other?Did you approve Supa's outing your role?
Answer these questions from oro, please.
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@DebateArt.com
@Mharman
How about only for creating accounts rather than every login? It would be truly painful to do a reCaptcha for every login.
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@Barney
Just remember: Supa to us he was a lover in the Civil War mafia instead of a sibling. He then failed to correct the error in fifty pages.
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@Intelligence_06
The roles sometimes change how they work, though. With drafter's list, they're standardized.
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@Barney
He did that in his last game, but I don't remember seeing it in this game.
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@Lunatic
Yeah, I remember those. You two had better start arguing before I start suspecting you two for agreeing too much.
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This game is more like mafia as I remember it. Having drafter and Lunatic really helps.
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@drafterman
Both scum fake claiming town lovers would be a hell of a gambit.
It would, and it could work. I wouldn't be brave enough to try it, though. Supa might be, but it doesn't seem to be his style. He did used to pull gambits as town, though.
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@Barney
#113 was an experiment. I am not sure if I'll continue it or not. It might be easier to keep track of different lines of reasoning, but I'm not sure yet. ... Damn I wish we could do tables on these forums.I will say that it is going better than when I did an experiment of debate voting just quoting people... That got tiresome about five minutes into it.
Keep it up. It's good analysis. The style doesn't matter as much as the thinking behind it.
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@drafterman
5 town 2 thirds and 2 maf is feasible.
Maybe, but only if Speed doesn't count third party as scum like he did in his last game.
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