SirAnonymous

I thought mafia couldn't kill?

Come to think of it...

Dear mafia team,

Please come forward as mafia and join the survivors. If you claim now then you have nothing to worry about from town because town does not control the vote and can't NK, you have nothing to worry about from the SKs because the SKs are going to focus on killing the people on their list rather than trying to kill you (if you are on their list then fake claiming survivor won't save you from them anyway), and you have nothing to worry about from the survivors because the survivors would all much rather try to lynch SKs and joint win with a cooperative mafia. Even if you just have one of your guys come forward that would be fine. We really just need to start establishing some sort of alliance and us survivors can't 100% trust anyone that claims survivor but we can 100% trust anyone that comes forward as mafia because we know anyone fake claiming mafia will simply be shot by the mafia during the night phase. I hope that you will at least consider this idea and talk it over with each other in your PM and even if you decide to decline for whatever reason please remember to kill any fakers that might come forward claiming to be mafia because such a person is probably an SK if they do that. Thank you for your time.

Sincerely,

Your pal DD

P.S. plz no kill meh.

I thought you guys wanted to kill the town off since town is the weakest team on the board.

You might be right that he is not a survivor. If he is town I actually wouldn't mind letting him live for now and lynching someone else in order to increase our chances of hitting an SK.

Grey isn't sensical

not if you lynch me (hint hint)

Secondly, I think a VTL is worth the risk. To demonstrate why, let's examine the possible outcomes of a VTL.

1. We kill an SK (2/11 chance, since you know you aren't one). This is good because fewer players die each round and because it makes both mafia and town closer to winning, and therefore brings we survivors closer to winning.

2. We kill an SK target (1/3 chance). This would disable an SK since they would lose their ability to kill. Combining 1 and 2, we have a 51.52% chance of either killing or disabling an SK. This would not bring us closer to fulfilling any wincons, but it would still be useful since fewer players would be killed each round.

3. We kill a town/mafia (1/3 chance, but this could overlap with SK targets). This would be useful because it would bring the other party closer to winning.

4. We kill a survivor who wasn't targeted. This would be bad because it wouldn't bring us closer to winning, wasting a valuable lynch. The odds of this are difficult to calculate because it's possible (so far as I know) for the town or mafia to be SK targets. However, I think it is safe to assume that anywhere from no town and scum to 1 town and 1 scum (probably less) would be targeted. This would make the odds of killing a non-targeted survivor range from 1/6 to 1/3.

Outcome 4 is the only one that is bad for survivors. Thus, VTL'ing, even randomly, gives us anywhere from a 2/3 to 5/6 chance of a positive outcome. I think that is worth it.

If one side fulfills their objective (say, town eliminates mafia and SK) but dies later, would that still count as a win for them?

One way I see this working is, once Town/Mafia has been eliminated, the other claims. It would be suicide for the SKs to CC, so they would have to continue to pretend to be survivors, making the remaining party essentially clear. Then it's basically a race to lynch/kill among the survivors till you find the SKs.

The way I see it is that survivors can side with a side and that side will win but we don't know which side to side with yet because we have no information correct? And a lynch would help us get information?

I think I see the logic here more than the vtnl side's argument of how killing power roles would be bad, cause the only power role that actually benefits town is roleblocker.

 Who are we going to lynch? I think grey might be a good canidate, seeing how he's been fairly inactive and didn't answer disc's question about why he chose to vtnl.

I just realized something.

“Survivors win by being alive when mafia meets their objective, town meets their objective, or all living serial killers have met their objective.”

Simply lynching SK targets isn’t going to work (at least if you guys want to win, assuming that you guys are survivors), because if any SK lives to the end and fails their objective, that means we lose too. This reduces the chances that we cripple SK without also making ourselves lose to 2/11. Coupled with the 5/6 chance of shooting ourselves (anti-SK) in the foot, it’s clear that random voting won’t work.

Again, I’m completely willing to change my mind, but as I see it right now, VTNLing is the smartest thing to do.

Also, are you claiming anti-SK survivor or just-trying-to-stay-on-everyones-good-side survivor?

Lynch either someone that is suspected of being a serial killer or someone that advocates a pro-SK VTNL strategy.

I'm gonna bandwagon every vote of drafters and everytime he is wrong and mislynches im gonna call him a horrible mafia player and blame the whole lynch on him. Should be fun.

I still want to lynch today. VTNLing is, as others have said, extremely pro-SK.

There's a lot of people who are named starts with sir.

aiming for the SK in DP1 would backfire on you in almost all cases.

Simply lynching SK targets isn’t going to work (at least if you guys want to win, assuming that you guys are survivors), because if any SK lives to the end and fails their objective, that means we lose too.

Again, I’m completely willing to change my mind, but as I see it right now, VTNLing is the smartest thing to do.

I agree with you guys in that we're basically stabbing in the dark. Everyone is going to claim survivor because it's the only role mafia doesn't care about, and because it helps blend in with the surroundings. Given that, it's fair to say that we aren't going to get anything useful out of DP1, so we have to rely on probability.

True, if we random lynch, we have a 6/11 chance of ruining the SKs' day. However, what I thought about when I made the decision to VTNL is the collateral damage it could cause. There is a 1/2 chance of lynching a survivor if we go on random lynchings, and an 1/3 chance of lynching someone that directly benefits survivors (doctor, two roleblockers, and a bus driver). Altogether, that's a 5/6 chance of lynching someone who is on the anti-SK side. Considering that we have a greater chance of lynching an anti-SK (and therefore benefitting SK) than harming SK, I thought that the logical thing to do is to VTNL and wait until DP2 where we have more information to go off of. 

I'm fully willing to change my vote if needs be.

The reason it's suspicious is that you did it right after I VTL'd Supa.

Not sure what that means, because it doesn't clearly put you in any category. 

Oooh, really spicing things up are we? You convinced me, but  who should we random lynch?

This is a fairly interesting setup. We're going to have to design a brand new play book.

But aren't the chances of killing mafia in a Random Lynch pretty low? I say we VTNL until NP1 passes, and see who dies in the night.

Killing mafia only matters if you're town or sk.

I have no patience for willful and unrepentant dishonesty. And given that was the third example in his communications towards me that I remember despite me calling out such behaviour previously, either it's malice or stupidity

That's why the +1/3 doesn't change. You discount yourself from the "hitting an SK" calculation which changes it from 2/12 to 2/11.

Instead of the probability of hitting an SK being 2 in 12, it's actually 2 in 11 because you wouldn't count yourself.

Would you say it is true or false that Grey was blaming just TUF?