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@Discipulus_Didicit
Left your laptop open? Or were you actually that drunk?
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@Speedrace
If not, I will cry
My feelings, but with Pie.
This game has been crazy...
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@Speedrace
Wylted is behaving oddly...as usual...and it's bothering me because now I am questioning my townread of him. This is why I find him frustrating to play with. But, I am still not willing to lift my townread...I think he's just being a bit obtuse. Oro has to be town based on balance, the more and more I think about it. I am still comfortable in my townread of you, and Club is obviously town. So, if I remove my townreads and me, as I know I am town, from the list of players still alive, this is what I get:
Phione
Pie
Water
This makes sense to me as the scum team. I am about 95% sure that Pie is scum, about 90% sure that Water is, and about 80% sure that Phione is. That is to say, I would prefer a Pie lynch, but I am reasonably comfortable with a Water lynch. The lynch choice is between these two players. I will vote whichever of them looks the most likely to be lynched this DP, in order to avoid anyone besides them being lynched. I will cast my vote in about 30 minutes, and then I will have to log off to pick up my dog from day camp.
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@Wylted
Also I am paranoid about bsh1. I think he may be bussing pie here or just going for an early win by getting us to lynch him. Pr8bus though.
vs.
Can you VTL pie please, so you. are some use in at least securing us a lynch
This makes no sense...
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@oromagi
Lolor done in bsh style:YaA,aPn4yatsitf&pnd&ode. Ya2wh,bthmyse&byathosd. Dtya2sitf,yatP. Enyltr&aoaty@n. Ywwat2tthbe.
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@Wylted
I was poisoned on np1 it was not announced until dp1. Duh. Club was poisoned np3. This even day theory is just flat wrong
Are you sure you actually read the DPs?
Warren said that an even-day poison doctor would exist if and only if there were either two poisoners or a poisoner who could fake poison. Warren also said that Supa cannot fake poison. Therefore, because Club claimed even-day poison doctor (and there's no good reason I can see to doubt that claim), then there must be two poisoners.
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@Wylted
There is no second poisoner that is silly.
Based on Warren's answers, there pretty much has to be. If Club is actually even-day, then there must be two poisoners, because Supa could not fake poison, according to Warren.
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@Speedrace
I believe I've done that before at least once, but I have also found other ways to soft claim. My soft claims tend to always be vague.
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I will be back on later this evening. Keep up the good work...
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@Wylted
I agree. With that but was spit balling and hoping to narrow last remaining scum down.
So, you have no particular reason for focusing on Oro? You just picked someone in your scumpile to pressure at random?
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@Wylted
@oromagi
I am willing to pressure Oro at this stage for information: namely, results and, if you want, justification. I am not sold that he is our best lynch target.
VTL Oro for results and role justification
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No sir, his role makes the most sense. Bomb for Pie makes the least sense, so either lynch him or water. See my previous posts for an analysis on Water
Pretty much this.
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@Wylted
Which game was that? Speed is my strongest townread. I'd rather not lynch a claimed investigative role. I think balance, from what we know and can infer, demands that town has an investigative role. Bomb makes less sense to me, and there also have to be scum among the vanillas. Pie is still my first choice. I don't see why Oro is the lynch target for today, so, if that's the lynch you want, you need to provide some solid justification for why the rest of us should join you.When I was scum with warren last game he loved using discord and even made a specific channel instead of a message to do it. I think warren is a super discord user. Also starting to think speed is town from this exchange. Can we lynch oro if he does not give justification?
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@Speedrace
My problem with pie is that he's just acting ignorant
Lol. I mean, I guess that could explain his behavior, but then I have two questions: why is Pie acting ignorant, and why did he push for a lynch of someone who he townread who was a clear asset for town?
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@Speedrace
They obviously must then be talking on discord (both are on the DART discord, I know they have the ability to). Why then would Wylted vote without looking at what is going on? Unless he doesn't need to if his teammates inform him.
Being banned does not preclude him from viewing the site. He just couldn't log in. He could have been reading the game while banned, though that's a pretty big time investment for someone not actively playing.
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@Speedrace
I've pointed this out before, but isn't it weird how he asked Wylted if he was ok for voting for him
Can you refresh my memory?
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@Wylted
I also think the lynch from last DP should not count.
What are you talking about?
He was active on discord which I have never seen before
Do we know that the scum PM is on Discord? Why do you seem so sure of that?
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@Speedrace
The justification is why your role stems from your character. Let's take a look at an example:
You are Eevee, a Pokemon known for its unique ability to evolve into a variety of different evolutions depending on certain circumstances. As a result, you are the Universal Backup. You will start the game as vanilla but will inherit the first power role to die. You will be able to use the role the phase after it dies.
Bold = Character Statement
Italics = Justification
Underline = Role Statement
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@Speedrace
Did you see what I said about him and discord, as well as about Water?
Yes. I am trying to type, eat, and read all at once. Gimme a second...
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@Speedrace
But here's something funny. 4 days ago, water said he was going on vacation and that he wouldn't be online. But then he randomly popped up 2 days ago, which is perfect timing to submit a night action! But in that period, he didn't post ANYTHING at all. So he obviously must have been doing something in messages, which isn't logged on his profile.
Not sure if this outweighs my read on Pie. Maybe he just got bored or found an unexpected internet connection. It is odd, I grant, but does it outweigh the evidence we have on Pie?
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@Speedrace
Can you privately message people on here even if you're banned?
No, but workarounds are easy. If I am banned, I can message someone who isn't banned using an off-site messaging system, who can then post on the site on my behalf. I am assuming that this was how Wylted was proxy voting.
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Look, if the choice is among those four names, I don't know what else to say except that Pie is my first choice, and Water and Phione are tied for second. Unless people are active and give me more to go on, I can't really develop my reads. I've gone over past posts in this DP and my mind isn't really changing. So, activity would be helpful for getting things going...
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@TheRealNihilist
As long as the discussion is about ideas, not people, then it will pass moderation review. Now, if you're asking me my non-mod opinion, I would say that when real anger is introduced into the discussion, the debate is no longer really about the issues, and more about the people involved.
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@oromagi
@WaterPhoenix
@Phione
Post your reads and thoughts, please. Oro, we need your results.
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@Speedrace
I am online now.
We're suffering from underactivity...we really need people to either be prompted or for warren to replace people.
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Honestly, I think mafia has to have a poisoner. Because warren said Supa can't poison, the only way to explain Club's day-flavor is that there are two poisoners. That puts us as town in a really dangerous spot, and means we shouldn't VTNL. We're at LYLO.
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@Speedrace
I think that mafia has some kind of investigative role tooThink about it, night one likely NK Disc who was bulletproof, then grey, then Supa
They wouldn't have known about Disc NP1 because they wouldn't have had a chance to use any investigative role. But, I think you're right that they do have an investigative role, but for a slightly different reason. Supa's kill is kind odd. He was a viable mislynch target for town and was, from my POV, disengaged with the game.Why kill Supa over a productive townie like you or me? I think the most plausible answer to this is that mafia discovered that Supa had a killing role, which could pose a danger to the mafia, more so than a passive investigator, which they could just avoid visiting.
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I think we can agree though that Club is not scum, and I don't think you or Wylted are either. Ruling out the three of us, I have the following list of names:OroPhionePieWaterIf I am right, and all three scum are somewhere in that list, we have a 75% chance of lynching correctly this DP.
Revised. Pie is still my top scumread. Oro...eh...I really don't like his play last DP, but I think there must be an investigative role of some kind for balance, and so I am inclined to believe his claim. Now that Mhar's flipped town, I am less convinced of Water's guilt. So, for me, on this list, I think Pie is the best lynch, and then it's a coin flip between Water and Phione.
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@ILikePie5
The dude is scum to the teeth. Supa likely got him last night.
This makes sense, not only for the reasons Speed named, but because Club is literally not scum. I refuse to believe that there is a poisoner (maybe two) and a claimed bomb in a game without an active protective role. That would be serious mod malfeasance, and warren doesn't strike me as someone who would so heavily underequip town as to deny us an active protective role.
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Wylted VTNL'd. I think that's interesting as a strategy. Right now, the game is at 5-3. Let's play this out under two scenarios, assuming we VTNL this DP.
Scenario 1 - Two mafia kills
DP4: 5-3
DP5: 3-3
Mafia Wins
Scenario 2 - One mafia kill
DP4: 5-3
DP5: 4-3
DP6: 3-3
Mafia Wins
In theory then, a no-lynch this DP could buy us all another DP to sort things out and to advance POE. However, it only makes sense in the context of us believing that Scenario 2 is more likely, and I am not sold that it is. Plus, can Club self-heal? If he can't, or if he simply doesn't, then we cannot no-lynch, and we are at MYLO instead of LYLO.
For the noobs, MYLO is "mislynch and lose," which is a stage of the game when a mislynch will result in a town loss, but a no-lynch would not. LYLO is "lynch and lose," which is a stage of the game when a mislynch or a no-lynch would result in a town loss. A VTNL only makes sense if we're in MYLO, not if we're in LYLO.
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@ILikePie5
In which case he would’ve died considering I’m the Bomb lol
That makes no sense. Bombs only explode on direct kill attempts, making a poisoner immune from bombing. That's actually really interesting, because it means your claimed role would do even less than I thought to counterbalance a scum team with two killing abilities.
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@Speedrace
What if Club is a Mafia poisoner?
How does that make sense, though? A town poisoner is not necessarily a pro-town role. Town killing roles are statistically likely to kill more townies that mafiosos. It makes sense, I think, for there to be a protective role to mitigate the risk of a town poisoner choose poor targets.
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@ILikePie5
Why would Supa not have submitted any night actions.
Because he hasn't show any engagement in the game whatsoever. Even if he were online, he seemed to be ignoring this game entirely. Obviously, he wasn't not posting because he was mafia trying to lay low or because he was a confused noob. So, I think the only explanation that fits was that he just wasn't playing.
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@Speedrace
Not gonna lynch you, just saying that you’re making me nervous lol
At this stage, everyone is gonna make everyone nervous. There's about a 40% chance that any given player is scum.
I think we can agree though that Club is not scum, and I don't think you or Wylted are either. Ruling out the three of us, I have the following list of names:
Oro
Phione
Pie
Club
Water
If I am right, and all three scum are somewhere in that list, we have a 60% chance of lynching correctly this DP.
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The existence of a town poisoner who was inactive strongly suggests the existence of a mafia poisoner, if only because I doubt Supa would have submitted any actions. Two poisoners would verify Club's even-day claim, as if we didn't need more evidence that Club was town. So, it looks to me as if there is probably a mafia poisoner out there.
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@Speedrace
But why go with that weird soft claim? You obviously knew know one would know what it meant, so there was no reason to do that in the first place.
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@Speedrace
Think about it like this: if only PR and mafia waited to claim, mafia could know, in effect, who the power roles were by just waiting to see who hadn't claimed yet. You can also look at my past games on DART, where I was town and in which I consistently refused to claim until later in the game.
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@Speedrace
@Club
Oro wasn't poisoned. Club was, according to the OP.
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@Speedrace
Why would you wait so long to announce just being vanilla? That makes absolutely no sense
Why not? Mafia benefits from having more information; by keeping some claims unknown until later, mafia is forced to ask itself "is that a power role," "is that player's role dangerous"? Not only that, but it's better for vanilla's like myself to be NK'd that, say, a cop. If mafia doesn't know I am vanilla, they're more likely to NK me instead of someone more valuable.
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