Total posts: 2,589
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But, aside from the vanilla's...everyone's character and claim seems to fit really well...
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@Speedrace
Not super psychic-y, but if he was faking it, wouldn't he have chosen a psychic Pokemon?
Depends on his theme knowledge, depth of research, and teammates' input.
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@Speedrace
From the wiki:
Absol lives in the mountains far from civilization, and rarely ventures down from its alpine home. Using its horn, Absol is able to sense even subtle changes in the sky and the land to predict when a disaster will occur, and will try to warn people when one is approaching.
I mean, I guess it could work, but it's a stretch. Maybe if it were a psychic pokemon like Alakazam, Gardevoir, or Xatu (esp. Xatu)...
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For reference moving into DP4.
Disc - Shuckle, 1x BP*
Mhar - Eevee, Universal Back-up
Club - Chansey, Poison Doctor
Oro - Absol, Psychic
Grey - Squirtle, Vanilla*
Wylted - Ponyta, Vanilla
Speed - Tropius, Vanilla
Water - Growlithe, Vanilla
Pie - Voltorb, none
Bsh1 - Soft claim
Supa - No claim
Phione - No claim
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@Speedrace
plus with poisoners the guy can be targeted and then live to tell the story, literally lol
That's a good point.
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@Speedrace
That's possible; usually town has an investigative role. But I don't like that last minute appearance just to vote and a lack of any results statement (at least, I didn't see one, but I just skimmed). We'll deal with Oro tomorrow.
Okay...fine...Time to stop waffling...*Crosses fingers*
VTL Mhar
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@oromagi
Unvote.
What the hell is a psychic and why did you just pop on long enough to vote, at the tail end of the DP?
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Here's the issue I am having: I don't buy either Pie or Mhar's claim. In the former case, it doesn't seem plausible given the balance analysis I did. In the latter case, he seems to be contradicting himself. Pie's tunnel on Club--despite admitting he townread Club--is hella scummy. But so is Mhar's tripping all over himself throughout both DPs. At least with Mhar, I can see plausible scummates (e.g. water). I am not seeing that with Pie, who seems to have been pretty much a lone wolf this entire game. This is really kind of a toss up and I'm pressed for time, but I think Mhar's the best lynch target given what we have to go on.
VTL Mhar
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@Speedrace
You're lying. I quoted exactly what he told me, which was "Potentially and most likely yes"
How different are possibly and potentially? I think the "and most likely yes" is significant, but it seems additive rather than essential, and thus the kind of information warren might have omitted for the sake of brevity. I know as a mod I don't always C/P responses to like questions, just because I am in a rush or I don't want to be hassled.
Could you confirm that the answer I put here was the answer to that question? Post #274
I'll ask warren myself in my own PM, but IDK if he'll get back to me in time.
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@Speedrace
So why didn't they two nights in a row? It makes no sense
There are three possible explanations: (1) no mafia poisoner kill exists, (2) Disc's BP prevented an NK, or (3) the odd/even cycle. The first is the most plausible, and the latter two strike me as equally likely.
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@Mharman
A bomb doesn't balance well here. I think it's a fake claim.
Agreed. I think there is only one possible scenario in which it balances (and even then it's questionable), and that scenario is unlikely.
I get what "active" means now. I misinterpreted the meaning of "active".
You're saying that you only inherit roles which are active, meaning your obviously not BP. But earlier you said that you inherit power roles. There's still this contradiction.
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@Speedrace
I'm doing Mharman because I do not think that Mafia could possibly be as ignorant as Pie is being right now
Rofl...
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I'll place my vote tomorrow afternoon. I am logging off for tonight before my head actually explodes. This DP has just been confusing.
May the odds be ever in our favor.
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The chances, based on commonsense and balance analysis, that Pie is telling the truth are slim, and only make sense if (a) the poisoner is mafia and (b) mafia can use the poisoner concurrently with the NK. Now, Speed suggested that perhaps the poisoner was odd-night only. That would make mafia slightly less OP versus a town with a bomb, and would change the calculations to what I have below. Mafia could also have an NK plus an X-shot poisoner, which doesn't have the same sense of symmetricality to it...
DP1: 9-3---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =DP2: 6-3---w/ a mislynch and bomb event =DP3: 4-2---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =DP4: 1-2---mafia wins
No matter what, conditions (a) and (b) strike me as unlikely, meaning that mafia probably doesn't have two killing roles, meaning a bomb would not be necessary for balance.
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Correction:
Now, contrast that with a bomb resulting in a mafia death.
DP1: 9-3---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =DP2: 6-3---w/ a mislynch and bomb event =DP3: 3-2---w/ a mislynch =DP4: 2-2---mafia wins
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If--and it's a big if--mafia gets two kills (which might fit with Disc being BP but not with there being no NK last night), then a bomb might make sense, I guess. 1-to-1 trades hurt mafia more than town, because mafia is smaller. In such a scenario, town would lose 1/9th of their number, whereas mafia loses 1/3rd of theirs.
Let's play this out, assuming the worst case scenario for town.
DP1: 9-3---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =DP2: 6-3---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =DP3: 3-3---mafia wins
Now, contrast that with a bomb resulting in a mafia death.
DP1: 9-3---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =DP2: 6-3---w/ a mislynch and bomb event =DP3: 4-2---w/ a mislynch and two mafia kills =DP4: 1-2---mafia wins
Only in this scenario could I see a bomb being balanced, esp. with two protective roles in the game. If mafia has two kills, which I doubt, then town would need the protective roles and the bomb. But even so, the second set-up is still questionably balanced. But we need to remember, that even with two killing roles, both of them might not be mafia. So, there are a lot of assumptions built into this analysis.
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@ILikePie5
So you admit you wanted to lynch (and pushed for lynching) someone you townread who was claiming a protective role? That's not helping your case at all.
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@Speedrace
Could've just been a bold move, which I suspect it was, but this kind of town reads him too
I saw that as null. Sometimes mafia pull that stunt to make it look like they don't care about saving their own skins. I think there are townie things Mhar has done (no player is ever perfectly townie or perfectly scummy in average run-of-play), but I don't think that could count as one of them.
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@Speedrace
So about Club's even day poison doctor thing...what if Mr. fake poisoner can only poison on odd nights? AKA NK 1...only problem with that is that Club would instantly counter any poisoner, which doesn't seem like something warren could do
It would skew balance by disrupting attempts at odd-night kills for mafia, you're right. Honestly, we don't know much about the situation, which makes it difficult to know. It's possible that Club or the mafia are X-shot, that Pie is right, or that something else is going on...
With Pie's role claim, (I hope you've figured it out by now) I'm not sure we should lynch him...which makes me go back to Mharman
I think we've at least ruled out lynching any random inactive. So, it's down to Pie and Mhar. We'll have a few hours tomorrow to cast our votes, so we can sleep on it. But we certainly should be online and confident in our decision.
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@Speedrace
Ohhh, so like a lynch but only for mafia? Hmmm
Exactly. Usually, the mafia chooses among themselves who to NK and also which of them will do the dirty deed (alliteration ftw!).
Mharman is lynching Pie,
Voting. Lynching is different.
Because he's straight up lied about townreading club, consistently hammers club even though we know he's town, and weirdly protects Mharman even though Mharman has contested Pie before...
Fair enough. And what are your thoughts on Mhar?
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@Speedrace
Not necessarily a killing role. The NK (as traditionally conceived) is not a role, but an ability shared collectively by mafia, thus enabling any mafioso on the team to perform it on a given night. I think that there is at least one poisoner and something else. But until we have more information, we won't know for certain.
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@Speedrace
Don't we know that there are two though? Grey died, and we were never told that he was poisoned. That had to be some type of killing role, though, right?
Two poisoners? No, I don't think we know that.
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@Speedrace
Are you thinking then that Mhar and Pie are teammates?Everytime lynching Mharman has been brought up, Pie's avoided it. He always goes back to Club. We've basically proved Club is town and he still goes to scum on him? And he ignores the fact that Mharman apparently doesn't understand his own role...
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@Speedrace
Voltorb doesn't make sense as a poisoner. I might have a few guesses, but I would have liked for Pie to have disabused me of the notion himself, because if he was thinking of claiming poisoner, that would have been, IMO, the nail in the coffin in terms of my scumread of him.
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@Mharman
My theory is this. Wylted actually poisoned himself guessing there was a poison doctor, and a townie Club was none the wiser and saved him.
So, you legitimately think that mafia would have poisoned one of their own on the off-chance that they'd get rescued. That would be an asinine gambit even by Wylted's standards. Your remark here reads like a desperate attempt to shove the lynch onto someone who is--rationally speaking--not likely mafia.
Active role, as in unused. If Disc used his BP, than he would’ve reverted back to vanilla, which would explain why I didn’t inherit his role. Because he already used it.
I can only interpret this as a deliberate misuse of terms. That is NOT and NEVER has been what "active" means in the context of mafia roles.
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@ILikePie5
I seem to recall saying Club is town countless times
That's laughable. Need I remind you that you spent all of last DP tunneling Club? Can you point to your townreads of him?
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@ILikePie5
This is literally a lie. You never townread Club.Club - Scum —> I town read him at first, but after Warren’s revelation, I scumread him
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@ILikePie5
Phione - Null —> Dude claims to be from Town of Salem but won’t help at all, but he hasn’t posted much to develop a readSupaDudz - Null —> Hasn’t posted at all, hard to know if he’s scum or townWaterPhoenix - Null —> Hasn’t posted much and only OMGUSOromagi - Lean Scum —> Posted early on in the DPs but then disappears. Plus he’s experienced so he should be helping. And I think he’s levi_smiles from DDO who has a history of pulling this bs if I remember correctly.
Why are you null reading Phione, Supa, and Water because they "haven't posted much," but not null reading Oro for the same reason?
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@ILikePie5
Are you claiming to be a second poisoner?All I can say is I have the power to kill scum. Not gonna say how though, let them think about it.
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@ILikePie5
Warren doesn’t strike me as a mod who’d give Mafia 2 killing roles either bud. It has to be that a fake poisoner exists.
Right now, we don't know what mafia has. As I think I said to Mhar, there may be something important about the even/odd cycles. So far, we have not seen two deaths in the same night phase, so why are you so apparently confident that there are two killing roles?
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@Speedrace
Yo, I know you're busy, but do you have like 5 minutes to tell me what you're thinking for the lynch this DP?
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So, the DP is winding down...we can't have more than 24 hours left. What do we want to do about the lynch?
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@ILikePie5
All this says is that if any killing role Poisoner exist, a Poison Doctor would exist. This makes sense since a saving role would be needed for a killing role.
In that case, there is no poison doctor and only a fake poisoner. I doubt warren would include a fake-only poisoner, because it would allow mafia to essentially role-confirm a role which did not exist. Such a situation would be highly convoluted. It seems more likely to me that there is a poison doctor, precisely because warren doesn't strike me as the kind of mod to play those kinds of games.
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@ILikePie5
Obviously you haven't been paying attention. See post 152.However I don’t think there’s a mafia poisoner, only a fake poisoner.
I’m not gonna role claim since it would be a significant advantage to mafia.
And that is?
If you think this then Club has to be scum.
Still tunneling.
Sure, I’m Voltorb.
Reads?
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