coal

I'm gonna keep my vote on Ragnar but feel strongly about Sui and Oro contributing before this day phase ends. 

I am kind of leaning towards no lynching now with Objectivity being vanilla. Part of my read on Ragnar had to do with them being potential scum buddies. While the remaining points on Ragnar still hold true, I am not sure I want to risk a mis-lynch at this juncture. 

Unvote. VTNL

Please lord, do not take his case at face value without reading the context. First of all much of that is built on his lack of understanding. A big part of it suggests that I was "afraid" of pressure because I asked Danielle what her intentions for pressuring was, given she listed a bloc of four people. She later admitted she was looking for character claims and didn't realize that this was a themeless game. Zaradi should know this, but still based a case around mis-representing my "What are you pressuring for" as me being overly defensive, or scared of pressure lol. 

I too am getting "un-informed" vibes, considering he still think him and Dani are the most scum read people in the game. I figure his scum buddy might have at least told him that wasn't the case. 

Ok, that is helpful.  Read what I wrote in 448.  There is no way in my view you had read enough of the DP to know what was going on when you wrote 443 and the fact that you posted clearly from a position of having not read the DP suggests an UNinformed perspective.  As scum you should have continued to lurk and made a more calculated response rather than post the response you did.  So yes I am not even considering VTLing you at the moment.  If you're scum then you're going to be more methodical and not take the risk of speaking without knowing what you're wading into, but if you're town you have less to hide.  You also didn't beat around the bush.  So I can see where you are coming from as town more easily than I can see you writing 443 as scum.  I am not town reading you, but I'm not scum reading you at this point either. 

Read the DP and update your thoughts.  I would like a list of reads and a statement of why you think those are your reads.  Indicate your thoughts on the Ragnar lynch.  

I'll tell you where I'm at with Ragnar and why; make up your own mind and tell me whether you agree.   

On a very high level, Ragnar has shown the least interest of anyone here in posting reads, reading and engaging with the DP, and sorting scum and town from one another.  Adding to that the fact that he is not engaging with anyone, his thought process isn't even evolving; it's not even happening, which raises the obvious question of why.  Why isn't his thought process evolving and why is the only actual scum read he has made being based on OMGUS logic against Sui?  Looks to me like it's because he knows, which is why his reads aren't evolving as the facts develop. 

The reads he posts, few as they are, are not even reads but summaries of activity which look more like he is trying to appear to engage in pro-town actions but he can't get past the fact that he knows the affiliations and he has other things going on.  He says he is willing to sheep you or Danielle, and that would be very convenient if it turned out that either of you pushed a mislynch.  If you're right he gets the credit for being on the lynch; if you're wrong he claims that it was you guys and not him that made the error and he uses the fact that he was sheeping to avoid suspicion on him.  Except that's not how it works.  If he was sheeping you because he actually agreed with your reads/analysis then that would be one thing, but he isn't saying that at all.   He is saying that he town reads you both and so he is therefore willing to let you two take all the risks without him independently contributing.  That is classic scum behavior.  

Ragnar's first post is 34, wherein he posts nothing, and then posts less than nothing in 42, where he says that there is one person he can guarantee is not town.... someone who is not even in the game.  To his credit, nothing had really happened thus far but he also wasn't doing anything to make anything happen.  He's just kind of there.  Making his presence known, and nothing else.   Vote count at 51, Ragnar is still doing nothing.  I prompt him at 64, and nothing.   Vote count at 76, and 84, and 101....  nothing.  No posts other than pulp.  He is not active or engaged.  He is not invested in sorting town from scum, or even participating in conversations.  

It takes Ragnar until 113 to do anything even semi-substantive.   He posts a read list that does not take positions but does not take a hard position other than to say that he is "scum more often than not".  I thought that was actually pretty funny, but it felt like WIFOM.   Very subtle, funny, playful... but not moving the ball forward.  He acknowledges this in his post by saying "not the best, I know".   Why isn't he posting a list of reads to let people, in particular me, know what he is thinking?  It's because he isn't reading the OP and therefore doesn't have thoughts on the game's progression.  The reads were superficial and he missed several critical details, which I think you noted.  Ragnar said that I didn't even know if I was town or scum; but I clearly said that I was only tempted to not read my role PM.   Moreover, Ragnar list of "reads" isn't even a list of reads.  It's just a non-committal summary, largely wrong, without even a statement of affiliation for anyone.  There is no read on Danielle.  He simply notes that TUF's posts 6 and 14 are "worth reviewing" and while that is a sort of alluding to an FOS, he doesn't even come out and say it.   He leaves it there.  He similarly is just summarizing Objectivity's posts, your posts, Sui's posts, and Oro's posts and does this with like one line of analysis.   So I am now trying to figure out why even post it?  I've seen Ragnar's town play, and while I think I've seen his scum play, this isn't his town play.  He usually has narrow and fairly precise insight with reads.  I am not seeing narrow or precise insight.  I'm not even seeing insight.  I'm seeing a list of reads that does not even reflect that he is reading the DP.   That kind of apathy suggests an informed perspective to me, and therefore suggests that he is scum.   He also doesn't even read Airmax but VTL's him in 114, only after Sui had VTL'd Max, and repeats the prior mistake where he claimed I said I didn't read my role PM in 122. 

More than 100 posts pass before Ragnar is heard from again in 262, which was another nothing post.  But 269 is important:

I'm a firm believer in there being two types of scum. There are mafia who are forced to be scum, and townsmen who choose to be scum. Getting rid of the first is how the game is won,  but removing the second isn't so bad.

Of course I did not know you were at work. Sorry about that, i did not mean to be an ass. I'll keep your schedule in mind the remaining days.

Unvote

So Ragnar is saying what the thinks town should be doing, albeit in a vague and sort of noncommittal way, but he is doing nothing to either generate activity or enable the the identification of town and scum players.  He is just lurking.  He is not posting analysis.  He is not asking questions.  He is not trying to figure out who is town and who is scum.  Presumably because he knows, which is why he is so easy to explain away scummy behavior of others (i.e., Airmax) so as to avoid the indignity of being caught on a mislynch and potentially exposing himself to subsequent pressure?  Remember Ragnar is unvoting Airmax at 269, and continuing to explain away more potential scum behavior (even if I think the assessment is wrong) at 310 and 317. 

But where are his reads?  He is vaguely responding to questions, explaining away why he thinks other people's potential scum reads are not scum, but he isn't even willing to take a firm position on who is town and who is scum, more than 300 posts into DP1.   Ragnar first posts a list of reads at 331, at exactly 1:20 PM by my clock on DART, just about 45 minutes after I prodded him here.  So he is lurking, not posting reads, and avoding taking a position on anything other than suggesting why people are wrong about who is scum up until this point.  He replies to Danielle agreeing with me that he needs to post reads.

In 331, Ragnar is still not doing anything useful.  In fact he is only saying that he would be willing to sheep you or Danielle, so he is going to have you two blaze the trail while he follows.  Excellent scum strategy.  If you're right he looks pro-town while knowing you're pushing mislynches, but if scum he can say "I was just sheeping Dani and Zaradi!"  Potentially he is setting you up for a mislynch because if you lead a wagon and are wrong, it's not hard to figure out what comes next.  This is especially important where you led a wagon on TUF, which is one reason why I think the potential that Ragnar and TUF are both scum is very very low.   I also think there is no chance of Ragnar and Danielle because Danielle is town.  The only scum read he makes is on Objectivity, who if it turns out flips scum this could be a very convenient way for Ragnar to put distance between him and objectivity.  But still, he VTL's Sui for reasons that begin and end in OMGUS.  This is not the kind of analysis I expect from town Ragnar; this is the kind of analysis I expect from scum Ragnar who knows who is town and scum and who is having a hard time ignoring the fact that he knows the affiliations.   

That was the point at which I was willing to VTL him for death. 

If we lynch ragnar and he flips town what is your next move?

I'm a firm believer in there being two types of scum. There are mafia who are forced to be scum, and townsmen who choose to be scum. Getting rid of the first is how the game is won,  but removing the second isn't so bad.

Of course I did not know you were at work. Sorry about that, i did not mean to be an ass. I'll keep your schedule in mind the remaining days.

Unvote

Does Lunatic do this as scum? I don't remember anything about Lunatic's scumplay 

I'm not volunteering for anything, I am just saying that by the logic that you, zaradi, and TUF have I should be the first lynch, not Ragnar. 

According to the logic of YY, Zaradi, and TUF, I should be the lynch for DP1 since I am the safest bet.  TUF thinks its either me and zaradi or me and ragnar.  YY thinks its me and ragnar.  Zaradi thinks its me and TUF.  I am on all four of those lists.  Just lynch me then if that's what you think.

If both potential scum teams include me, why not lynch me first?

Interesting you think I am "tunneling" him rather than the other way around. I mean I just said he was the least strong scum read out of the three. And if you are accusing me of OMGUS, that is also wrong. My scum read on zaradi is that his behavior seemed contrived from the get go (my very first read mentioned this, though you somehow mis-construed it for a full on town read). Then when I challenged him to elaborate, he doubled down and focused on just me. Seemed like he was more interested in saying "fvck TUF for daring to say my reads are contrived" and the full case (built on mis-representations of reality and lack of reading) was essentially to fulfill his confirmation bias of having already stated he thought I was scummy and not wanting to back down from it. His intentions don't seem like he's open minded to hunting scum, and his vision is narrow. 

Interesting you think I am "tunneling" him rather than the other way around.

He has not really done much to generate discussion so far outside of trying to bus me in the last page after he has faced intense pressure

Anything's possible. The two scum teams I mentioned are based on my current feeling that objectivity is scummier than almost any town player, and the connection I made between Ragnar and objectivity because Ragnar basically gave a non-read on him, which is something I imagine scum would be likely to do on accident to make it seem like they are actually making a read on their scum buddy. Zaradi's my least strongest scum read, but in the case ragnar is town my best feeling is it would be objectivity/zaradi. Though I place objectivity/ragnar higher atm.

He has not really done much to generate discussion so far outside of trying to bus me

- Objectivity 328

Is this a slip?

and I am worried about looking scummy bc I don't want to be mislynched, pretty straightforward 

Obviously this post is only going to fire TUF up more because he will think I am scum buddying with Ragnar but w/e 

I will address the more pertinent ones here.  I agree that TUF's post 181 raises several questions, some of which your response identifies.   I think 191 also raises similar questions.   Specifically, in 191, TUF characterized Dani's list of candidates to investigate further as a "convoluted pressure group".  I have a hard time understanding why that group is convoluted.  The group Dani identifies in 179 is Ragnar, Oro, Lunatic, and Airmax.  

TUF was defending himself in 181, which means that he had at least some reason to be defensive as Dani FOS'd him.  Still, TUF was defending a group of three others.  I still do not understand why TUF was defending Ragnar, Oro, or Airmax.  I do not believe that Airmax's inactivity is per se not indicative of affiliation, either.  Despite the fact that TUF was defending himself, to some degree, it makes less sense why he was defending Ragnar, Oro, or Max.  Moreover, if TUF is town then he should be willing to pressure at least one of that group, and he should have a preference for which among the group is the best candidate or he should be suggesting another option based on a set of reads wherein he identifies a more ideal candidate for investigation/pressure.   At that point in the game, TUF had not done so.  

Instead, in 181, TUF is doing one thing that matters and not doing two things that matter.   The two things he is not doing is even entertaining a willingness to investigate/pressure while in the same instance he is not suggesting another alternative outside of that group.   As town, if TUF has a better idea of who to pressure then he should be speaking up; identifying someone that is not in that group.  The one thing he is doing that matters in 181 is he is casting doubt of the very utility of pressuring/investigation in the first instance.  You identify this, correctly, as well, and seem to understand the implications to the degree that you are at least willing to state it.

In my prior post I claimed that both of you could not be scum.  So, there are three possible worlds: TUF is town and you are scum; TUF is scum and you are town; or you and TUF are both town.  The first and the third options become less viable, considering TUF's more recent activity I discuss above; which means that the world I am thinking about now as being the most likely would mean that TUF is scum, but that also would mean you have to be town.  So as town, what I would expect you to be doing is at least catching most of the obvious things, and moving the ball forward.  Independently of your past interactions with Oro, it seems like you're doing that.  The events as they develop also look consistent with my past thinking that you both cannot be scum because you are hard scum reading TUF now to the point that you want him to be at L-1, which is not something I expect scum to do.  You are also willing to lead the wagon here whereas you beat around the bush with Oro.  I think you are saying that you are more confident that TUF is scum than you were that Oro was scum, and more confident that TUF is scum than that either of Objectivity are scum.   (Here's something that's lingering in the back of my mind, though.  I think as well you seem to have been demonstrating the most interest of anyone in actually getting something useful out of DP1; difficult as that may be.  I think there's two possible reasons for that.  More on this tomorrow.)

So there's a huge contrast between what you're doing and what TUF is doing.  I am open to revisiting my town read on TUF.  As of 278,  Danielle VTL'd Ragnar, Sui followed Danielle.  The only other vote on the board is yours, after TUF unvoted in 154, which I note is the first instance where my thinking on TUF became less certain.  I asked others to post insight on why they thought my town read on TUF was wrong.  Admittedly, it wasn't a strong read but one of instinct.  I have a lot of thoughts on 154, but I've said enough for now.  

Lunatic - Potentially scum

Ragnar - Potentially scum 

Max - Potentially scum 

Objectivity - Uncertain; needs to post more and respond to my prior post 199

Oro - Uncertain; seems like clueless town

Zaradi - Potentially town, subject to events NP1 and DP2

Sui - Potentially town 

Danielle - Town