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I was the one who made the same statement earlier when I responded to you remember? It's why I continued to town read Coal earlier, where my instincts would have scum read him for lying about not reading the OP. I don't use the same logic consistently when judging different players. But we can't pretend that Coal didn't know what he was doing and the implications of the consequences when he was told he was wrong. And he pretended to care for a minute when he unvoted ragnar to make it look like he was giving it careful consideration, but still hasn't dropped the issue with it, since he turned on me for doing literally the same thing you did. That's where it shows he is going for whatever mislynch he can get a hold of. I wish you could see it because we are so narrowly missing being on the same page, because of the earlier exchange we had.
The above is TUF's post 771.
Remember this tomorrow.
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I love how TUF only admits the flaws when he's beaten over the head with them. Second major time now. Actually the third if you count his reaction to Zaradi's initial case against him.
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@Lunatic
And yet you aren't making the same case against Danielle? In fact you are warning Danielle against town reading me even though she and I both independently came to the same conclusion?
Presumably because you know we're both town and you are actively trying to lay the foundation for my mislynch....
Again there are plenty of things you could be doing to change my mind about you but instead of doing any of them you are making non-unique arguments for why I am scum but you are actively treating Danielle as town even though based on your own logic you should be arguing that both Danielle and I are the scum team. So again nothing you are doing makes sense as town. At all. Zero.
And you are going to die today.
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@Zaradi
The fucking depressing thing I can't even townread this AtE, which I normally do, because I can see both town!lunatic and scum!lunatic getting pissed off for being lynched for things that he doesn't perceive as scummy.
TUF's emotional outbursts have no impact on the assessment or conclusion; all of that is non-unique, and, as you correctly note, not helpful to interpreting his behavior.
There's enough to work with otherwise that this doesn't even need to be considered, and it shouldn't anyway, so I am comfortable with this lynch and I have been since I said as much earlier.
There are plenty of things TUF could do to get me to change my mind but he isn't doing any of them.
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@Lunatic
But your vote was on me before the whole instance with ragnar, so for you it didn't make a difference did it? You were happy no matter what happened, as long as I was lynched, you ignorant prick.
Zaradi may be able to be a brat but there is nothing about what he has said so far that is ignorant.
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Can someone who is in the other game with Oro please clarify whether he is being active there, or not?
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In the big picture, I note these things:
TUF has absolutely no basis for town reading Ragnar other than the supposed claim Ragnar made, which TUF either understood too well or didn't understand at all. And TUF was on the Ragnar lynch up until it became obvious, at least, to him that being on that lynch would be very, very bad. Moreover, TUF is now acting like anyone who disagrees with his divine revalation (read: informed perspective) is scum by default, while criticizing me (incorrectly) and warning Danielle that I am going to do the same thing.
Yet, he town reads Danielle and VTL's me. Recall that Danielle and I have basically the same reads, albeit for different reason, on Ragnar and have for the whole DP. TUF was on board too, for a long time. Danielle's and my reads haven't changed; they are still consistent. But TUF scum reads me while cautioning Daneille that I'm going to turn. This is manipulative anti-town behavior. It's neither logically consistent nor indicative of town intentions; it is rather TUF setting me up for a myslynch for tomorrow -- if that day comes. And keep in mind TUF was on that same boat too... until he wasn't, and now he's just going to totally forget about everything that happened in the DP and expects me to do the same, and scum reads me for not doing that; while town reading Danielle despite the fact that she reached the same conclusion independently?
So this confirms my prior assessment that TUF is scum.
Reminder: VTL TUF for death
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@Lunatic
I will think about your question. Potentially, but I have to see the rest of the DP before I can give an answer.
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@sui_generis
Ragnar isn't a bad player and the way in which he "soft claimed" obviates any potential that that's true. Ragnar is not so bad at this game that I can attribute, reasonably, his actions to the fact that he's just a shit player -- because he is not a shit player. The way he claimed proves as much. The only alternative explanation is that he just doesn't want to play because I'm here, which I guess makes sense; but it's still not a good explanation, especially if he actually has a power role.
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@Danielle
MAFIA ALREADY KNOWS WHO THEY ARE BECAUSE THEY OUTED THEMSELVES. RAGNAR CLAIMED A POWER ROLE. If he is town he literally narrowed down which role he has (mason or cop) for no reason and only the mafia knows if he's telling the truth. So he gave mafia definitive info and us nothing but speculation, especially with inactive players.And then Zaradi said "don't make me hard claim" to coal as some type of veiled threat. What an utterly useless and not remotely slick breadcrumb or hint. If he's claiming he has a power role and Ragnar is town, then Ragnar and Zaradi outed themselves as power roles to scum while the rest of us still have no idea if they're telling the truth or not.You want to accept Ragnar's soft claim and keep the other mason/role hidden for what exactly? If Ragnar is town he'll be dead during the night. Cool. Then tomorrow we still won't know who the other confirmed townie is. Cool. I don't see the point of this at all and think you need to watch your tone when speaking to me. It's not my fault I don't speak retard.
Every level of this post is correct. If not for Zaradi, I would be virtually certain that scum are Ragnar and TUF. Zaradi is the sole reason Ragnar isn't today's lynch.
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I want people to be focusing on 649, for further consideration tomorrow. This is consistent with every level of my prior analysis on Ragnar and he is not now and continues to not help himself by repeatedly and deliberately failing to do anything that would even vaguely resemble pro-town behavior. The beginning and end of his read on me is OMGUS; though I continue to believe that an equally likely explanation for this stupidity is the fact that he thinks I am a "stalker" or "obsessed" with him.
Lol... it's not only just wrong; it's insane, but this is also consistent with his past meta which is why I am willing to still entertain the possibility that he is town and why TUF is today's lynch rather than Ragnar.
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@Lunatic
Well then since the cat's out of the bag walk me through your thought process.
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So I think I have FOS'd basically everyone other than Zaradi and Danielle, today.... what a day phase.
I have been thinking this through as I'm typing though. And yes, we are lynching TUF today.
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The scum team is TUF and likely an inactive. Maybe Ragnar, maybe not. TUF is today's lynch, though.
VTL Lunatic
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@Zaradi
Calm your perky little tits, boyo. Ragnar isn't getting lynched. At least not today.
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@Danielle
But the reason I agree with you that TUF's affiliation can't be confirmed based on Ragnar flipping town or scum is because of the nature of TUF's reaction. TUF reacted like he knew, exactly, what Ragnar's role was -- which is just totally impossible with the setup unless TUF's perspective is informed. The only way TUF knows exactly what Ragnar's role is, is if TUF is Ragnar's scum mate or if he is a mason with Ragnar. But TUF had absolutely no idea what Ragnar's role was because he did a complete 360 after Ragnar's actions. When TUF was writing his response, which was something like "If you don't unvote TUF and see why that must happen after what Ragnar just said then you won't be getting any follow from me" or something like that. It was a strong reaction. If TUF knows what Ragnar's role is then TUF is scum, unless the two are masons, and I just do not see any world where that happens.
That paragraph didn't make any sense. I'll rephrase.
There are three possible worlds relevant to TUF's reaction to Ragnar. In the first world, TUF is town and had no idea what Ragnar's role was. In the second world, TUF is scum and knew exactly what Ragnar's role was. In order for me to believe the first world, then I have to also believe that TUF doesn't understand either what Ragnar said or what it meant because Ragnar's claim was at a level of generality that left the door open to multiple possibilities -- unless TUF has information to narrow those possibilities. Which, maybe he does, which is the second world, where TUF knows exactly what Ragnar's role is because they're scum mates and trying to develop a fake claim to prevent a lynch of a mafia power role on DP1. But the third world where TUF knows exactly what Ragnar's role is, is where Rangar is town and TUF is scum. Knowing which of the three categories we are in already based on the setup, scum are the only team who can get Ragnar's exact role by process of elimination.
Which brings us to TUF's reaction. Maybe it was genuine. But maybe TUF realized he was on a wagon getting ready to mislynch a townie and he knew, for absolute certain, that lynching Ragnar was going to make him look guilty. I don't know that it actually would have, but once you know stuff it's hard to NOT know it; which is why I am now considering that TUF slipped without realizing it. Something to think about .... TUF is looking more like an option for me today.
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@Danielle
Ragnar says he knows the mafia has a role blocker.
That's not what Ragnar said. What Ragnar said is that IF MAFIA HAS A POWER ROLE, then it's the role blocker -- which is important. He left it at the conditional, which stands out to me because he is either suggesting he knows mafia have a role blocker (because it's him or his scum partner), or he is assuming there is a role blocker based on his role.
The fact that he is both acting like he knows there is no doctor in the game and he is formulating his strategy on the basis that there is no doctor in the game suggests either that he is fake claiming because he knows at least one of the role(s) he's alluded to having isn't in the game but he doesn't know what that role is, at least exactly what that role is, yet, but he knows someone else in the game might be able, through how they react to his fake claim, to tell him what role actually is safe to hard claim so that when he's actually at L-1 he can convincingly fake claim while coming up with fake results the next day.
And it already looks to me like there is some coordination to that effect going on. Potentially with TUF. Though I still think there will be useful information to be gleaned from Ragnar's lynch and I think the DP has already made that clear.
But the reason I agree with you that TUF's affiliation can't be confirmed based on Ragnar flipping town or scum is because of the nature of TUF's reaction. TUF reacted like he knew, exactly, what Ragnar's role was -- which is just totally impossible with the setup unless TUF's perspective is informed. The only way TUF knows exactly what Ragnar's role is, is if TUF is Ragnar's scum mate or if he is a mason with Ragnar. But TUF had absolutely no idea what Ragnar's role was because he did a complete 360 after Ragnar's actions. When TUF was writing his response, which was something like "If you don't unvote TUF and see why that must happen after what Ragnar just said then you won't be getting any follow from me" or something like that. It was a strong reaction. If TUF knows what Ragnar's role is then TUF is scum, unless the two are masons, and I just do not see any world where that happens.
On the other hand, the Ragnar/Zaradi mason team is looking more viable based on my reconsideration of the situation. That would be consistent with Zaradi's strong scum read on TUF that, for the most part, was pretty unwavering, and the thoughts Zaradi had on Ragnar's lynch. But I think if Ragnar flips town then Zaradi must be town, and then TUF has to be scum -- and that is why Zaradi was scum reading TUF and doing so in a way that approximated tunneling. And consistent with their past play -- again assuming I'm right here -- Zaradi isn't going to stick his neck out for Ragnar, and frankly I don't think he should because I think Zaradi is confirmed town if Ragnar flips town.
It is a miracle I'm town reading you since you are not playing to your #1 town meta which is tunneling me.
I think it's been three years since I've played with you in a game of Mafia. Maybe four. I was a bit more gung ho back then. Now I'm apparently old enough to be called daddy by a 23 year old.
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@Lunatic
Do you agree that if Ragnar is town, then Airmax must also be town?
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Ragnar's memory certainly seems selective and he is self-evidently ignoring the vote counts. I understand that his (juvenile) antipathy towards me colors his reads of anything I do, as he has himself admitted, which is perhaps why he can't even keep track of who I have said I was willing to lynch, why, and when. That, after the nonsense he pulled last night, keeps him as a scum read. Also, he says we should be treating him like he's dead. Why, because he knows there's not a doctor? Did he maybe not think about that when claiming what he did? But the fact that he says that there is nothing that can save him implies that he knows that there's not a doctor in the game; just like he knew the setup based on the knowledge of his scum-mate's role.
Ragnar is claiming what he is claiming, which means either he has that role or not. As town, if he has the role TUF thinks he has, then allowing himself to get to the point that he did was incredibly anti-town. I can't tell right now whether TUF actually thinks Ragnar is holding the hand he's holding, or if TUF is going to be the person who "confirms" Ragnar tomorrow with the miraculous revelation of results. So what I do not understand now, just as I did not understand last night, is why town Ragnar allows himself to get to L-1 (even if there was no real risk of a lynch, though I note that I was willing to VTL him for death and I am still not convinced I was wrong).
The only world where Ragnar is town is where he, distracted with more important life things, is unable to post simply because he just doesn't have the time. That's why I was considering the possibility that he and Max might be masons because I already town-read Max and that would explain why, in an alternative world, town-mason Ragnar was allowed to get to this point by his scum buddy.
I thought Zaradi may have been suggesting that because I town read him last night that I should be understanding that Ragnar and Zaradi are the masons. But Zaradi said he was willing to hammer Ragnar at the end of the DP. On the other hand, Zaradi also said that the only world where he would hammer Ragnar is if we were at the tail-end of the DP for results. Or maybe Zaradi was just saying that so I would keep town-reading him and he was worried that if he defended Ragnar I would go after him. I don't know if I would, but if I was a mason that's not how I would have played it. I would have acknowledged the obvious -- that Ragnar's behavior was scum-leaning if not indicative -- while trying to generate other, better leads without exposing myself to potentially being exposed as having the power role. Even still, the only thing that got me to get my vote off Ragnar last night was the possibility that Ragnar and Zaradi are masons; though I am still really skeptical of it because I am seeing a pro-town intention from Zaradi's actions that is in no way consistent with him being a mason. But perhaps I'm wrong. I am willing to let that develop for the time being while we pursue other things. Zaradi's measured reaction last night is another reason I am not VTLing Ragnar at this exact moment.
If Ragnar and Zaradi are both town, though, then I think I have to go back and look at TUF.
If Ragnar is scum then TUF may also be scum. Or he may not. TUF's reaction last night is hard for me to sort through. Just because Ragnar may have sold a bill of goods doesn't mean that at least one townie won't buy it. That may well have been what happened with TUF.
Again, actions speak louder than words in this game. You go a DP acting like that and then bait the town into believing you're actually useful despite having been the most anti-town player in the game for 500+ posts in the DP; begs the question of why you weren't trying to ensure you actually got the chance to contribute meaningfully. If Ragnar had been playing like the role he claimed to have this DP, he would have never been the target. Sui or Oro would have, at the very least. Or maybe TUF, because Zaradi's wagon on TUF may well have defined the DP.
I also still town-read Danielle. The fact that Ragnar doesn't town-read Danielle, or anyone who has even suggested the potential that Ragnar is scum despite the fact that Ragnar's actions are by far and above the most scummy of anyone's in this game so far, and he has done less than nothing to help himself, and as "town" allows himself to get to the point hew got yesterday where what "saved" him was his "claiming" a "power role", continues to suggest that he is not town.
I may revisit this right now. It's a bit convoluted. I've had a long day.
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@Danielle
Admittedly whichever way Ragnar flips isn't gonna make me suspect Lunatic less now (sorry) but I just wanted to throw this out there in case I die during the night.
I agree.
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All - I am just getting online. Mild fire at the firm (metaphorical fire). Had me occupied all day and I anticipate that may continue for the next few days but shouldn't impact thereafter. Just letting you know.
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I am also more willing to consider Sui and Oro than I am willing to consider Airmax.
We are not lynching Max today.
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@Lunatic
I think he and oro need to talk more and that if they don't, then I am willing to consider pressuring either of them.
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@Zaradi
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@Zaradi
You're not oblivious enough to not know what I meant.
And you notice I have since unvoted, correct?
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@Zaradi
I am still town reading you because I see the world where you are making the decisions you are making as town, consistently with your past actions and my expectations of what you should be doing. I think you are wrong, but I am willing to consider further.
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@Zaradi
You were never on the Ragnar wagon to begin with.
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@Lunatic
I will reflect more on this, but if he doesn't deliver or what he delivers is bullshit then we are lynching him. The problem is that -- as I am predicting right now -- his results will not be confirmable for reasons that likewise should be obvious to you.
UNVOTE
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@Zaradi
I have been town reading you for some time now.
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@Zaradi
Well I think at this point you'd have to be blind and deaf to miss it at this point, but w/e.
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@Lunatic
alright alright, lets stop talking about this.
Look at the setups. Then look at what scum would have to know about which of the three categories they were in based on the fact that scum know exactly what roles each other have. Then look at the obvious implication of that. Then think over the post to which you responded so strongly with Ragnar in light of the fact that if what Ragnar said was true, then what should have he been doing the entire time but failed at like every chance to do where we are almost 550 posts into the DP. I see no world where actions line up with words in that case, which means the claim is fake.
Convince me why I'm wrong.
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Why airmax? The only connection I can see is airmax dismissal of ragnar due to DP1 being pointless. But if that's the case, then whatever you think zaradi is, is wrong.
I agree, which is why I think the possibility that Ragnar is a mason is a frivolity not even worth considering. I thought about it for like two minutes and ruled it out.
I think you are jumping to conclusions on Ragnar and I think that what he is doing is baiting you with something that, unlike his prior posts, is very specifically calculated to mislead.
If Ragnar is scum then he knows what the three possible setups are, which means he knows which of the power roles he can claim; and the fact that he is making that soft claim implies to me that he knows that that role isn't on the board, which strongly suggests to me that Zaradi has the role I think he has and Ragnar is fake claiming. I saw this coming from a mile away but didn't want to speak up because of the impact it has on DP2 results for reasons that -- at least I thought -- were at least as obvious as what you think you are seeing in Ragnar's soft claim.
I don't think you considered what that soft claim meant, though. It's something that means that he now gets a pass from scrutiny for basically doing nothing other than seeing the obvious fake claim on the board, where absolutely nothing so far in this DP has suggested that he has that role based on his activity.
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@Lunatic
Yes, but then why hasn't Ragnar been playing like he has that role? If Ragnar is scum then he knows the setup and he knows which power role is not on the table that he can fake claim to dodge the lynch; and we are early enough in the DP that he can get away with that.
The only world in which I see Ragnar as having any role other than vanilla is where he is a mason with Max; an option I think is fairly clear is not viable.
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@Lunatic
Well I'll just spell it out. I think Ragnar's soft claim is a cheap form of derailment bullshit because Zaradi is the only person I see so far that has been playing like he has that role.
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@Zaradi
If you are soft claiming vanilla I will unvote. My whole working theory up until this point is that you, and not Ragnar, have the role I think you have.
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@Zaradi
What Ragnar just claimed to have, not you.
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@Lunatic
And you are 100% sure Zaradi doesn't have what he just claimed to have?
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TUF took the chance on Ragnar
A bit more on this.
In the world where TUF is scum, I think TUF is actively trying to derail the Ragnar wagon whether Ragnar is town or scum. And again, that isn't happening. TUF is taking the chance on Ragnar because he thinks that Ragnar is actually scum and he is doing that after he has thought that through and accounted for the implications.
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@Zaradi
I like you... and I'm not going to make fun of you. So not sure why you think I'd be making fun of you.
I might sexually harass you, but only gently. ;)
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@Zaradi
Do you think there's anything in particular that's exonerated him? I havent seen anything
I have a much harder time seeing TUF's activity in the second half of the DP after your post as coming from an informed perspective or subjectively as playing consistently with his scum meta, to the extent I am familiar with it. Maybe you're right, but I think the stronger probability at this point is Ragnar though I am still thinking about this in view of the fact that I now have to entertain the possibility that one of Sui, Oro, or someone else? would be his scum mate. It doesn't negate the theory, but it does mean I have to think more about the situation and potentially reevaluate.
Here's the main thing, though. TUF took the chance on Ragnar and I think TUF's reads on Ragnar, that Ragnar is scum, are right on three levels.
First, relevant to Ragnar: Objectively I think Ragnar is the most likely scum candidate based on his actions in the DP. Subjectively I think Ragnar is playing inconsistently with his town meta.
Second, relevant to TUF: objectively I think TUF's reads on Ragnar are right for the reason I just said. Subjectively I have a very hard time seeing TUF coming from an informed perspective and still willing to commit to VTLing Ragnar given that if he is wrong he knows that you are going to come after him with full force tomorrow, and likely with good reason. When TUF backed off of Ragnar and particularly VTNL'd I was seriously thinking for a minute that I may need to reconsider this, but he quickly corrected the mistake. The fact that TUF made the mistake suggests he isn't being as calculated and methodical as I would expect him to be at this point in the game and especially after an event as significant as a mod kill. Scum TUF isn't posting stream of consciousness thoughts. He's making sure he has a good set of reasons for why he's posting what he's posting because he's got something to hide. Town TUF on the other hand is thinking about how to figure out what the next steps are and he's not worried about looking like scum because he isn't scum. Moreover, as scum I would expect that if TUF was scum he would be hunting for very particular kinds of information DP1, so as to maximize utility of a night kill. Again, the VTNL thing stands out to me as something that is both anti-town and pro-scum, but he corrected that in like less than ten minutes, or maybe somewhere around that. And the fact that he made that unforced error is telling me that he is posting stream of consciousness rather than being super calculating. Again, these are not things I expect scum TUF to do.
Third, relevant to the game in general as between TUF and Ragnar: TUF isn't lurking, posting bullshit or noncommittal reads, evading questions, or suggesting that he should sheep other players while contributing nothing to the game. Ragnar was, is, and continues to do all of those things, which is why I continue to see him as a better lynch candidate even though I do not have a concrete theory on who his scum mate is. I am still working that out. So while I am less confident now in Ragnar than I was pre the mod kill, and while I think Adam's flip doesn't give a whole lot of useful information, I still do not think and am not willing to even pursue a VTL on TUF today. Tomorrow, after results, idk maybe. We will see what happens in the night phase but I think that is premature. That being said, I don't think the case you made against TUF is wrong -- at least it isn't self evidently wrong. There is potentially something there and it's something I will obviously have to consider more once there are results tomorrow, and if the results are what I expect they will be, I think any doubt to that effect will be resolved. TUF is still playing like a townie (and a vanilla one at that) to me, and he is not doing the things Ragnar is so I do not see myself VTLing TUF this DP unless something really significant changes like, idk... a total reversal in what TUF has been doing so far.
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@Zaradi
Also take the full BDSM test. The partial test doesn't give me the insight I am looking for.
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@Zaradi
For the same reasons as you previously posted? Do you think anything about Lunatic (TUF's) actions subsequent to your case against him change that? If so, why?
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And as I stated above, do not do the dashboard thing or whatever it was you previously did. It confused me and I think it may have confused others. Maybe I'm just a moron and too stupid to understand what you're doing but accommodate me because a list of hierarchical (or not, says sui) reads on a spectrum from probability of town to scum alone requires me to speculate as to why you are thinking what you are thinking. Do this with all deliberate speed.
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@oromagi
With Objectivity out, I want your full list of reads and a statement the basis for those reads. I want your reactions to what has happened so far. I want to know why you are not voting for Ragnar, and I want to know whether you are still scum reading Danielle in view of the fact that she is obviously town.
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