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@Mikal
I would post a crying emoji if I could.All wifom
Everything you've ever said this ENTIRE game has been wifom. I don't know why no one else calls you out on it.
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Also whiteflame has to be town. He was scum reading me last day phase, it makes no sense for him to suddenly just come out and confirm my results like that if he was mafia. I really don't advise we lynch him.
I don't know how to proceed this game, because the main person I want to lynch is mikal, and it seems no one else is willing to consider him an option, we are even giving him a free item to use against us if he is scum. I don't know who to push in absence of mikal. I still town read mharman. If I had to guess who mikals partner is, at this point I would have to say I am leaning savant despite thinking his behavior was townie day phase one. His willingness to lynch earth dp1 alongside mikal, and his wanting to lynch me based on activity when this is actually the most active I've ever been in a mafia game reeks of the same thing he is accusing me of, "Opportunistic".
You will just say that im "omgusing" but I have been suspecting savant a bit since last day phase, so its really not. But you will say it anyway. Who cares.
I so obviously in the minority with my reads that it almost doesn't even matter at this point.
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@Savant
I think banana is who I want to ultimately lynch today. I like whiteflame's reads and attitude. I also think Mharman made a lot of fair points. But I feel like not posting for this long is a bit opportunistic, like banana is hoping the attention will move off her.
It's frustrating that you feel this way. This is the most active I have ever been in a mafia game. I didn't post for one evening in this game because I had irl things going on and you say its oppertunistic, when theres been many games where I maybe only post once or twice a day phase. I am trying my best to be active here, and its still not enough. I would not have signed up for this game if I knew it would be so high paced, but I am actively trying my best to be as active as I can.
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I will say, I really, really don't like that we are taking mikal for his word here. I will vote him to comply with town, but this is such a red flag.
But my vote will be:
1st: Mikal
2nd: Earth
3rd: Mharman
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@ILikePie5
What was the guess you made regarding the trivia yesterday?
I just submitted day cop, because I don't know many roles. I've never seen or even heard of a sensor.
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Hey guys, im still here. I am having difficulty keeping up with this game, I will try to catch up, but this is becoming exhausting to keep up with. I didn't expect the activity to be this high paced, or I probably wouldn't have signed up.
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@ILikePie5
Pie this is what I said in post 606 in my reads of dp1:
"The one thing I will say about wylted that I don't like is him openly speculating about roles and characters that could exist in the game. I feel like he is an experienced enough player to know that is not beneficial."
The whole reason I said that was because wylted was openly talking about my character like that.
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Is there any reasons not to get the last three claims? Mikal, savant and pie are the last to claim. Id be okay with pie going last as he seems towniest, but Id really like mikals claim in particular.
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Both austin and moozer seem town to me, I don't see why anyone would lie here. I think it's likely that lunatic just messed up, I am not going to place too much stock in that counter claim argument.
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@ILikePie5
There are a lot of famous tv hosts, Bob Barker, Drew Carrie, Howie Mandell, etc. I think any of those would apply to "famous host you all know" just as well.
Also why do you think I was mad that wylted was talking about characters publicly? I literally pointed out that this was a scum tell for him because he specifically mentioned my character...
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@ILikePie5
I am telling the truth. I don't understand why you would vote me.
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Well since mharman claimed already I will go ahead and claim.
I am Fear Factor, since the show is about facing fears I am the Brave Townie. I can target a person each night, if that person is scum I am immune to the night kill that night. Last night I was going to target mikal, but changed my mind to savant last minute after having some doubts about his motivations in lynching earth that I couldn't get out of my head.
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@ILikePie5
Banana & Savant are the only 2 who can use Casey’s character and role claim that scum Janitored.
A few points to make here: I was the first to suggest locking scum into fake claims, so I had to have either had my fake claim ready from the beginning (or used the free fake claim).
Secondly, scum could have claimed already.
Thirdly they could mix and match roles and characters from the provided / janitored claim, etc.
Anyways if you want me to claim I can, but I just want to point out that there are other things that can effect who used the janitor claim and how it was used. We don't know all the answers.
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@Savant
You realize I was the first vote on WyIted and a played a significant part in getting him lynched?
I am not saying you weren't. Again I still mostly town read you, I just was having a few second thoughts after reading the earth willingness.
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@AustinL0926
Agree, we can decide that after we figure out who to give the prize to. Right now, I'm thinking Moozer is the best choice.What's your POE looking like right now?
I guess right now my two strongest reads would be mikal and whiteflame, and I do still town read savant but I didn't like how willing he was to participate on the earth lynch last day phase, so I don't full on scum read him, I am a little hesitant to clear him. I am willing to take you out of the POE for now since this plan doesn't seem like it could benefit scum at all, and I don't see why you would reccomend it as scum. Pie is town, he basically led the wylted lynch. Not sure on mharman, I still town read him behaviorally, but he could be scum too. Moozer and earth are hard town to me.
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@AustinL0926
Thats... Thats actually a really clever plan. I will throw you some town cred for that. If we do this, we should make a detailed list telling everyone clearly how to submit their votes according to this method, so that way there isn't any risk of people claiming mistakes or confusion.
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@Savant
Because it matters whether or not someone is 100% confirmed.
We can't know either way so...
Ok, how were we supposed to know that Earth was town yesterday though? Today he looks pretty towny, but this is obvious hindsight bias. When it was Earth vs. WyIted it was a bigger deal, but just having Earth in PoE after he claimed soldier? That's not really scummy.
The case against earth was really bad, so why lynch him in the first place? He had a role that fits the character very well. Only reason he would be scum is if he got the fake claim from lunatic, but other than that there wasn't a good reason for people to sus him, and many were bandwagoning mikal. Austin even admitted he was copying mikal. So I would not want those two anywhere near a list where they could get a prize but thats just me.
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@Savant
Because it matters whether or not someone is 100% confirmed.
We can't know either way so...
Ok, how were we supposed to know that Earth was town yesterday though? Today he looks pretty towny, but this is obvious hindsight bias. When it was Earth vs. WyIted it was a bigger deal, but just having Earth in PoE after he claimed soldier? That's not really scummy.
The case against earth was really bad, so why lynch him in the first place? He had a role that fits the character very well. Only reason he would be scum is if he got the fake claim from lunatic, but other than that there wasn't a good reason for people to sus him, and many were bandwagoning mikal. Austin even admitted he was copying mikal. So I would not want those two anywhere near a list where they could get a prize but thats just me.
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@Mharman
Where did Pie say he is the cop?
Huh? No EARTH is the cop. or he won the trivia for the 1x that is
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@Savant
Earth could be scum and lying about using the cop. I think he's telling the truth, but he's not confirmed.
if you think he's telling the truth why even bring this up
You realize I also demanded that WyIted claim, right? And Austin's role is confirmable?I might actually switch out Mikal for Earth, give me a bit to fidget with the probabilities.
I do town read you despite the willingness to lynch earth, but I am not that certain with the other two. And austin himself said he has seen his role on both sides, so idk about it being confirmable meaning anything.
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@Savant
1. Savant, 2. Austin, 3. Mikal
Not a fan of this list. All three of these people were willing to vote earth last day phase, if wylted wasn't forced to claim by pie, he would have been chopped, and he is our cop.
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@Earth
Looks like I missed the end of the crazy dp last night, but for the record, I did scum read wylted, so glad you guys made the right decision. Also I figured you were town earth, glad you got the cop!
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@ILikePie5
Pick out of Wylted, WF, Mharman for the last claim
If I had to pick out of these three, it would be whiteflame because he is doesn't have a hard line stance and I suspect him of being willing to jump on one of the "easy lynch" bandwagons. Wylted might be second for me. I kind of town read mharman though.
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@AustinL0926
I don't see this as being AI for Austin in particular; he often uses a lot of self-analysis in his posts, both as town and as mafia.Maybe you are right, but I would have just assumed all that stuff as true if he didn't point it out, so that's the only reason I thought it was odd.Like... it's shifting a NAI thing at best into potential scum? Idk, maybe I'm reading too much into it, but it feels like a contradiction. Banana, could you explain your reasoning here?
Like all those things you pointed out you wouldn't do as scum, seem kind of obvious to me. Like you not initially knowing there was 3 scum, I saw that and was like "thats a town slip", until you brought attention to it, then I had to second guess and be like "Maybe he knew the whole time, but was acting dumb about it to make it look like a town slip". If that makes sense. Then I started noticing you had done that a couple other times before that, and it just set off a little red flag.
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@AustinL0926
Not sure what to make of banana's reasoning on me; me making self-analysis is NAI by itself, but the thing is, even if my analysis isn't necessarily reliable, that doesn't really invalidate my posts that are being analyzed in the first place.Phrased that kinda poorly so: I can understand her being hesitant on her read on me; but I would trust it more if she gave an independent attempt to townread my posts, whereas right now, her read comes down to:
I did say I was reading you as town absent of those posts though.
So it feels like I'm just in POE despite her not really having read me (implied by saying I'm not a scum read, i.e. I am a scum read to some extent); and it can't be for the self-analysis itself, because other people have said it's NAI
Im not other people, just because it didn't stick out to them doesn't mean it isn't something to think about. But I am not hard scumreading you over it either, I just would have seen those things you pointed out already, so you bringing attention to them just made me question the authenticity. Maybe I am wrong here.
and I don't really like how she just ignores my role; even if it *can* be scum, it's still town the majority of the time. Feels kinda hedgy.
Other than some of the common roles I've seen game to game, I don't know a lot about mafia roles yet. All I have to go on is you saying that you've seen this role on both sides.
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@Moozer325
Okay, I guess I misunderstood what you were saying in some respect.Why is Austin in your PoE though, he claimed gladiator which is a confirmable role?
"Austin has come in recently and made some really big posts, at first I was liking it. But the one thing I think is holding me back from town reading him is that it feels like he is selling his own towniness a little too hard. "I would have consulted my scum team, I wouldn't need to catch up, see I am town!" or "I didn't read the OP, see if I was scum I would already know there was 3 scum!", etc etc. He's done that a few too many times for my comfort level, and hes obviously experienced and smart enough to know that stuff would look good for him, so why even bring attention to it? In fact I might have bought him as town for all those reasons anyway, if he hadn't personally brought them up himself. Anyways I wanted to put him as a town lean, but thats the main issue I have with him for the time being."
Also a role being confirmable doesnt mean he is town. Anyways, hes not a strong scum read, but I did feel he was overselling his towniness a bit too far.
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@Moozer325
I get that he's pretty relentless with the same argument, but you wanted him to back off on the ground that you know you are town. I understand the first part, but then you use the worst justification for wanting him to back off.
I dis-agree.
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@Casey_Risk
I wanna ask both of you a question. Assume, just for a moment, that both of you are town and Earth is also town. Who would your top scumread be in this scenario?
My problem is I am town reading a lot of the active players. My read list had whiteflame, austin, wylted as potential scum, wylted being more null, but for trying to get people to out character information, austin for "I have to be town, I wouldnt do x and x otherwise" and whiteflame for positioning himself to bandwagon off of mikal. But admittedly multiple people are doing that now, so I can't really hold whiteflame more accountable for that than others. These are players I don't neccesarily want more information from, but would be willing to lynch. If there are any common demoninators here in this group of people that people are willing to lynch, I would support it. I don't know if I can get behind an earth lynch.
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@Moozer325
Meant to include my response to you in that last post. It's the worst possible defense a town player can make essentially. Everyone "knows" that they are town, but the rest of us don't know that. I can make the same defense now by saying "I know I'm town, so don't lynch me!"
I didn't say that. I said that its a waste of time having to constantly defend myself against him when he's barraging me with paragraphs of posts repeating the same thing, "OMGUS!", and "Town cred!" The argument hasn't changed, and meanwhile its taking time from solving the game with other people and pressuring other roads.
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@Mikal
When I am at my computer I can flip back. I am not reading old dayphases or even old posts in this ok my phone. To much of a pita.
You've been saying this for ages now, you aren't going to do it. So might as well just take the words of people saying this is a thing.
Off memory I believe whiteflame, Moozer and Casey have all said your recent posts and logic revolve around our interactions or you are just typing fluff and hyper fixating on my initial read.
I am not denying that a lot of my reads are based on people and their interactions with you. You are my strongest scum read, so how people treat you and react to you is extremely important in determining who your team is. No one is agreeing with your logic on your original reads though.
I am saying at the time of you saying I was going for easy lynches, I was the only one scum reading you and the more you have continued to post. The more illogical some of your reads come off and people have been picking up on that as well.
They didn't say they were illogical, just pointed out they were based around you, which I happily admit. Again if you are scum like I think you are, its important to judge your interactions with others to find your team.
Early on as in as very soon after you posted that and even before anyone mentioned it. It stuck out to me.
You found something to double down even more on, congratulations, more proof that your reads don't evolve or change when you think you have an easy mislynch in sight.
You are mad I’m scum reading you
lol you are projecting. Calling you out for bad reads doesn't mean I am mad about them. I am actually happy that I have a lead to go off of so thankyou.
And framing your reads of other people off how they perceive you, perceive me, or based on my reads of those people.
Thats literally how you scum hunt.
Omgus by definition because you are literally looking reasons to support your confirmation bias because I scum read you.
Talking about confirmation bias when your me and earth have been in every scum list of every read list you've posted is kind of hilariously hypocritical.
If you think it’s bad logic that’s fine. I disagree. I am correct that scum do what you did to farm town cred. The only varying factor on that is if it’s actually a meta on site which I have acknowledged at this point that if it is, it could be NAI. I have also said you are a gut read for me.
So you have time to write paragraphs to me, but don't have time to check one thread for 5 seconds to see if a meta exists or not. Interesting use of your time. It's like you are delaying purposely so you can keep me in your confirmation bias.
You are in fact doing that. You basically said he just needs to claim. I keep saying whoever we make claim needs to die off behavior. Having a claim just for the sake of a claim is not helping us because we are giving scum more info.
So if you read a cop scum behaviorally, your going to lynch him because we dont want to give scum more info?
That is not an excuse just to make someone claim. I have said we need to pick a target and focus on it. You are not giving a reason why you want moozer to die. You are saying he just needs to claim. That’s dumb.
I want to cross moozer off the list, the same way we have for austin. We can't do that if we are constantly waiting for him to post.
To add to that. You are saying Moozer needs to claim to claim in the sense of. Austin did so he should to. Wylted was either trying to force a scum slip and catch Austin off guard or is scum and was being opportunistic.
How are you able to speak for wylteds intentions? And even if you are correct why would that logic apply to austin and not moozer when both were equally inactive?
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@Mikal
I don’t think it’s a bad read I still think it felt like you were framing town credit. I already conceded to Casey this may be some weird site meta (I also have to check this later) but it just felt wrong.
You can literally verify this meta in 2 seconds by checking dp1 one of literally any of the recent games. Black ops was an exception because someone mentioned it wouldn't work for that theme for some reason.
Past that you are defensive as all hell. It’s like you are offended i am scum reading you and hyper focusing on me when other people are pointing out the same inconsistencies.
Defensive? I am just pointing out bad logic. Also name one other person who is "pointing out the same inconsistencies" weren't you just trying to use the argument that no one else was agreeing with you on your read? You can't have it both ways. You want to use ad populum fallacy, or play the victim that no one is agreeing with you which means your argument is more correct? Pick a lane buddy.
I notated very early on that I thought it was super weird you town read Moozer just because he was defending you (now your voting him or pushing him for a claim?)
What do you mean early on? I literally didn't put a read list up until late last night, and my vote was on moozer since the beginning of the day phase...Why are you blatantly lying now?
Your read on earth is largely based on my perception of him. It’s not a lazy analysis. It’s literal omgus which again is not AI.
I am not earth, so how is my defense of earth remotely related to the word omgus? See what I mean how you are just throwing out this word like it means something? It's a talking point, but you don't even seem to understand it since you are clearly using it incorrectly.
But just hyper fixating and basing a a majority of your reads on me all because I found your initial post as farming town cred is odd.
I am going to call bad logic out when I see it. You don't get an excuse because I have seen you make posts that use great logic, so I am left with the conclusion that you are doing this against people you think are easy to paint as mislynch targets. Pie pointed out the same thing, you aren't accusing him of being scummy for it lol.
You do realizing forcing claims just to force them is bad right?
I am not doing that. Moozer was absent most of the day phase, same with austin. At some point he will be the focus and if you wanna wait two and a half days in day phase 2 for him to finally claim, rather than getting it out of the way now, thats on you. Austin was forced to claim and he was just as inactive as moozer. It seems fair moozer would be held to the same standard.
Whoever we push this time needs to be who we kill unless there is some overwhelming claim that makes it logical not to do so. We can’t keep giving up free information.
Except we are no where near coming to a conclusion on who to lynch yet, you being absolutely unwilling to change your dumb reads is part of the problem.
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@Casey_Risk
There was also a CC in the last Lunatic game, Serial Killers. That2 and I both claimed Cop. The mafia wasn't given any fakeclaims in that one, and the ones they came up with on their own weren't very good. You can see some discussion of this in the Endgame thread, but it's certainly part of what led Luna to give the mafia a little bit of help in this game. Without any fakeclaim assistance, however, being CC'ed is always a real threat.
Is it a common enough occurence to justify the stance that more obscure roles are "safer" to claim than common ones? If so maybe I will give whiteflame a pass on that argument.
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@Mikal
Can someone check something for me because I’m still not off for a bit. Why is Anna’s vote on Moozer if she town read him. I can’t remember if he was in her town block but I think so
I town read him yes, doesn't mean I know he is town. He was absent for most of the day phase, and austin was forced to claim immediately, I think moozer should be held to the same standard if he doesn't know how active he can be.
But it’s exhausting at this point going back and forth when we are talking in circles.
Dismissing everything I say as omgus isn't talking in circles, its a lazy way for you to continue to double down instead of just admitting you made a bad read.
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@Moozer325
Any reason you haven't claimed yet? I am leaving my vote on you until you do. You were gone for most of the day phase, even austin claimed already.
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@whiteflame
s for Banana, I think she mostly has some good reads this game, but... yeah, there are some surprising gaps and misreads. Maybe that's just a matter of the DP being so long and her having so much to synthesize, maybe it's the fact that I'm one of her scumreads and I just don't understand her reasoning against me.
Chances are I didn't explain it correctly, I am happy to do so though.
For example, looking at the basis she's using, she says I'm not "taking any of the mikal points in" when the central basis for my read of Earth in my post last night was balancing issues brought up by Mikal and Pie.
I did mention this actually: "Then he concludes that the claim is a "safe" role claim, and I honestly just don't see that after he just said he saw pies point. Again the only way that's a safe claim is if its the provided fake claim right?"
Maybe I am misunderstanding what you meant by safe but that seems to go against what earth actually claimed, which is something that I've been gathering is a more rare role, or one that isn't used often. That doesn't read safe to me, that reads as risky. Safe would be a tried and true go to claim, that mafia use frequently. I don't have any examples of what that might be, but soldier doesn't seem to fit that category from what I am picking up from the peanut gallery.
I am also not the only one to point out that the Soldier claim is "safe" since, if it is a fake claim, it is almost certain not to get CC'd. I did make the point that Earth would have to have been given Survivor as a fake character claim, not that he'd have to have received Soldier as a fake role claim.
So what makes it safe is how CCable it is? Let me ask, is people getting CC'ed a pretty common occurrence here? I think the last game was the first time I've seen someone actually get CC'ed. I technically CC'ed earth in russian mafia, but the mod admitted fault there for accidentally putting the phrase "first tsar" in two PM's.
That's the distinction. And yes, I made extensive mention of the fact that I have a hard time reading Earth behaviorally and left him as null as a result. He's never been top of my scumreads, but just seeing relatively normal Earth behavior doesn't shift the needle for me and I can't dismiss the possibility that he's fake claiming here. I don't see how that's odd or how the "math" doesn't add up. If leaving him in PoE makes me scummy, then that's not going to change for the time being, but that's the only thing I see here that seems basically accurate to what I've said about him. She also points out that my decision not to make a call last night on Mikal demonstrates my lack of commitment. I guess... apologies for not giving all my reads in one sitting at midnight? Also, as multiple people have pointed out, my being non-committal isn't a scumtell.
Maybe I am just being too harsh on my mikal read, but under the assumption that mikal is setting up targets he feels are easy mislynches, I am naturally going to be a little suspicious of anyone who is still scum reading earth based on anything mikal has said. When I was reading your reads last night, I saw him in your null pile and was trying to get in your head to understand how that happened, but with you agreeing with certain pieces of the pie logic, it was hard for me to wrap my ahead around how you arrived at the conclusion you did that earth was just "null" and it seemed kind of like an easy way to integrate yourself into the earth lynch if and when it may happen. I saw mharman also had left earth in the same spot, but I was looking at his thought processes to lead him there, and it didn't stand out to me as much so I didn't mention it.
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@Casey_Risk
I don't see this as being AI for Austin in particular; he often uses a lot of self-analysis in his posts, both as town and as mafia.
Maybe you are right, but I would have just assumed all that stuff as true if he didn't point it out, so that's the only reason I thought it was odd.
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@Moozer325
I’m on my phone so I’m just posting things as I see them instead of one long post. Right now I’m on Banana’s readsI know I am town, so why should I have to spend so much of the day phase trying to defend myself, especially when the reasons just aren't very good to begin with.This triggers some alarm bells with me. Aside from it being the worst defense ever, it seems like it could go one of two ways, a horrible scum play, and a town slip. I’m still not sure what I think is more likely.
Whats wrong with it? Mikals reasons are pretty horrible. His whole basis for scumreading me was that "I volunteered too much information for town cred". The only information I volunteered was the soft claim lock in, again something we have done in every game. That's by definition a horrible argument.
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@Mikal
Point out specifically how I have been not consistent and not logical. I responded to Casey in depth about why I moved them to town, so I’m not going to go back over that
I have actually multiple times. Your entire point is that I volunteered information to gain town credibility right? What information have I offered that literally every other player hasn't offered at this point? I gave a bare miminum of baseline information and only because I was suggesting every other player in the game do it. It's hypocritical to suggest every player claim something and not claim something yourself.
And If you mean my read on earth. The only argument people are bringing up against that read is that earth just acts this way normally. Pie even agrees the behavior is scummy as shit but is giving a pass atm because it is earth.
That's the point though, earth isn't even as scummy as he has been in other games, but you are using this "common argument" that people like pie have against him because you know it makes him an easy target.
As for you, I’ve conceded it’s a gut feeling off the initial post multiple times. I still think it seems like you were buying town cred. I have to read through what casey posted about it being meta later. Maybe it’s NAI but it still reads me as weird.
You say you "concede" but literally every time you bring up your scum reads, you have me and earth on them. So you are clearly lying about this in order to give the appearance of actually considering things.
Really a large majority of anything related to me or my reads about her is still just omgus.
Except I am suspicious of you for targeting people who you think are easy mislynch targets, I am not just suspicious of you for going after me. Earth and casey were also in that pile until you got intimidated away from casey when you realized she was a strong female who could shut you up. Dismissing my whole argument against you as omgus is extremely ridiculous and you know that.
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I am going to attempt a read list. I am going to be fully honest, I skimmed through a lot of the really big posts, when I was catching up, but I did my best to pick up on the major details and for the most part I think I am good for these, or at least hope I won't come off as a complete dummy with these.
Earth- I lean town on him, the role and the claim fit really well in my opinion. Survivor and soldier just make sense. I've never seen a soldier used, so I can't speak to how common or uncommon it is, but based on some of the comments from mikal and others, it appears the role is somewhat rare, or obscure. This is a very good reason to town read earth, because a lot of the argument towards lynching him is based on apparent laziness, lack of effort, or perceived skill level right? So if that's the argument for why he is scum, then there is no way he comes up with an obscure role like that, instead of sticking with a more common role. Pie has touched on this point quite a bit, and I tend to agree with him, if we are going to call him scum, we HAVE to acknowledge that this at the very least was the fake claim provided by the mod. If we are looking at it from that logic, it's almost easier just to go with "he's probably just town" right? That said behaviorally, I don't think he has done anything that stands out to me. At least no more than he has in the past game. I did vote to lynch him in Russian mafia because my role directly contradicted what he was saying about his role, but other than that I don't think his behavior was very different from here, maybe aside him getting a lot of flack for self voting, which to me I don't know, I get being frustrated. I was pretty close to doing that in the game where everyone was scum reading me for what felt like bad reasons so I understand that. But here I just don't see anything about him that really sticks out to me. And the read mikal has on him feels like he is going above and beyond to find anything scummy about earth. The fact that earth seems to be looked at as a common or easy mislynch, and that he is targeting me in conjunction with earth, also is part of the reason I am town leaning earth here. It seems like no matter how far down the rabbit hole Mikal goes with earth, his read never lessens, only strengthens. I don't see how mikal doesn't seem to have any doubt here, and earths responses do come off as genuine to me. On that note I can go into mikal next...
Mikal- Lean scum. Initially I really liked his posts, thought processes, and activity, and was kind of sure he was town. The more he has doubled down on what I feel are VERY bad reads, the more I have a hard time seeing him as town. Mikal does come across as a very smart and motivated individual, but a lot of his responses don't hit in a logical way, and some of his other posts prove that he is a very logical person. It's getting strange to the point where it seems like he has to double down on these scum reads, more to help convince other people of them then himself if that make sense. Like no matter what responses I or earth had to him, rather than taking it into consideration and going "Oh i'll sleep on that and re-evaluate later" he almost always comes back to just repeating the same reasons for scum reading us, as if he isn't actually considering us being town at all. I can see the scum motivation to lead a mislynch here, and he probably feels me and earth aren't targets that will fight back hard enough to prevent the inevitable "steamroll" that is his pressure. And in a way, he's right. I personally don't usually have the time to respond to lengthy posts and paragraphs, so he will overwhelm me with responses, and continuously repeat the same points until enough people see that he is making the repeated point and putting in the effort, that they will probably just take his word for it. Same applies to earth. I can physically feel earths frustration in responding to mikal here, because I too cannot keep up with him, and it really is just tiring and pointless feeling. I know I am town, so why should I have to spend so much of the day phase trying to defend myself, especially when the reasons just aren't very good to begin with. I stand by my early decision to get soft claims, and I would do it again in a heart beat, even if this somehow ended up getting me lynched. Anyways to sum up my feelings about mikal, is that his reads don't feel authentic. He goes from semi logical to non-sensical based on the read and the person, and the only reason I can see him acting that way is if he is trying to force a lynch.
Casey- Hard Town. I'll go casey next because she is a stark contrast to Mikal in my opinion. She is posting at length, but her ideas and thought processes come off as more consistent, as opposed to strategic. Also her choice to pressure mikal is a very brave thing to do in this context, considering mikal does seem to be in a lot of people's town pools. What I mean is, as mafia, her going after mikal here is that path of most resistance, and mafia would generally want to avoid that path. I also do find it ironic that she was one of the earlier scum reads by mikal, and mikal kind of quickly backed away from this read when casey came in hard posting hard analysis. Him dropping pressure on her didn't feel natural, it felt more "Oh I got in over my head on this one". I don't really know what else to say about her, other than I also share similar thought processes to her, and nothing about her posts read like she isn't authentic.
iLikePie5- Town lean. I am giving pie a town lean mostly based on his argument in defense of earth. Pie has been posting a lot, but in general it's something I would expect from him in either affiliation, pie just is an active player and obviously cares about mafia a lot. But I have seen pie get frustrated with earth, particularly in the Russian game where he was all too eager to lynch him. Pie was town there. Now pie shows hesitance, but is still saying things like "Funny enough, this is exactly how he reacts as town" in response to mikal targeting earth for easy things. This reads like pie is trying not to make the same mistake that he perceives mikal is making, which shows growth. Ultimately I am leaning town on Pie because he is calling mikal out on his bs though, and he seems to have come to a similar conclusion as me, that mikal is looking for easy mis lynch targets. At this point it probably seems like I am town reading everyone who happens to agree with me, but to me what mikal is doing feels so glaringly obvious that I can't help but to town read others who point it out.
Savant- Town lean. I'll go to savant next, his effort in general feels extremely townie, I resonate with austin in this. While some of the statistical aspects of his reads don't make sense to me, I think it's more of his process and if it works for him great. That said this player feels entirely different than the savant from other games. so I will keep a watchful eye on him. I am hearing a lot of people say he took place in a championship game which could explain this change, but the effort is obviously there, and he hasn't really triggered many alarm bells. Again I'll be honest I have not read a lot of his bigger posts, but I still feel good about him overall.
Whiteflame- Lean scum. So this one is complicated. I can see where people are getting his non committal aspects, for me its more that he IS putting in effort, but some of the conclusions of his reads don't really "math" right. Like I don't see where point A + B = point Z. For example I don't like his recent posts thought on earth. He kind of acknowledges both sides, without really taking any of the mikal points in, while acknowledging there is something there. Then he concludes that the claim is a "safe" role claim, and I honestly just don't see that after he just said he saw pies point. Again the only way that's a safe claim is if its the provided fake claim right? He then leaves earth open with a "null" that feels like he is leaving earth open as a mislynch, idk it feels like earth is a lot of peoples intended lynch target today, and because I town read earth, it makes me extra weary of anyone that seems willing to pull a switch on him if it came to it, and whiteflame leaving earth as an option here feels odd. Then there is the point where he is keeping mikal as a town read, still saying he will look into caseys argument. This is where I see people are probably pointing to his non committalness. To me it looks kind of intentional, like he is doing his best to come accross as open minded without showing the proper steps to how he got there. Idk if any of this makes sense like how it does in my brain.
Mharman- Lean town. Mharman is another case where I don't really get the sense that he is trying to lead mislynches, and his posts come across as authentic. The main reason I am town reading mharman though is the vast difference in his playstyle here then in the last game. In the last game I didn't push him hard enough, but I knew I saw something, and I wish I did. But his activity and overall interest is 10x better than it was in the last game already, and he actually seems like he cares about trying to get this thing right. In the last game, it felt like he only would type big responses in defense of himself, or maybe a bit in the last phase where I was pressuring him a little bit and he knew he had to post more, but really he seems a lot more invested, and his logic adds up much more than it did in the last game. The only counter point I have to my own logic here, is that he also seemed a bit dis interested in Russian mafia, where he was also town, so his overall activity might not be a factor in hid affiliation. But I will say there is a significant increase in the quality of his posts from this game to the last game.
Moozer- Town lean- Mostly for his defense of me. I don't see his motivation in doing that if he was scum, he could easily take advantage of mikals read on me. Instead he is going above and beyond to point out how bad mikals logic was on me, which THANKYOU I am glad someone else sees it.
Wylted- Null- The one thing I will say about wylted that I don't like is him openly speculating about roles and characters that could exist in the game. I feel like he is an experienced enough player to know that is not beneficial. I have seen him do this before as town though, so it could just be a "wylted" thing. I want to see more posts from wylted and see him take some hard stances before I really decide what I think of him, his main push seemed to be on austin for activity, and that is something I am behind as well. I'll leave wylted null for now.
Austin- Null- Austin has come in recently and made some really big posts, at first I was liking it. But the one thing I think is holding me back from town reading him is that it feels like he is selling his own towniness a little too hard. "I would have consulted my scum team, I wouldn't need to catch up, see I am town!" or "I didn't read the OP, see if I was scum I would already know there was 3 scum!", etc etc. He's done that a few too many times for my comfort level, and hes obviously experienced and smart enough to know that stuff would look good for him, so why even bring attention to it? In fact I might have bought him as town for all those reasons anyway, if he hadn't personally brought them up himself. Anyways I wanted to put him as a town lean, but thats the main issue I have with him for the time being.
I think I have a lot of town reads on my list, and unless the scum team was exactly mikal, wylted, and austin, and it probably isn't that easy. So I know I will have to revisit a lot of these as the game continues. Anyways this is what I have for now, and I apologize about the delay in posting these.
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@Savant
You can call it OMGUS if you want. I literally just think it’s a bad read. Mikal doesn’t seem like a dumb person to me, therefore it’s more likely he’s trying to take advantage of who he feels would be an easy mislynch. Same argument applies to what he’s doing to earth.
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@Mikal
Suggesting a path for town to take and then immediately must doing it without getting feedback about the thought really pings me as farming cred
Cool then you just have a bad read. Saying something is scummy doesn’t make it scummy. I’d do it again in a heartbeat.
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